AI Optical Supercycle — Wave-Curve Rotation

perspective

AI Optical Supercycle — Wave-Curve Rotation

active thesis

status monitoring priority high thesis tickers 19 scan-mentioned tickers 255 events 67 latest

Wave 1 (LITE/COHR/CIEN/FN) passed the demand-confirmation test: COHR's Q3 FY2026 print landed on 2026-05-06, not 2026-05-13, with record revenue $1.81B (+21% YoY), Datacenter & Communications $1.4B (+37% YoY), Q4 guide above consensus, and backlog visibility into calendar 2028. The May 13 signal is post-print market/analyst reaction, not the earnings date. The durable thesis hardened, but the easy edge narrowed; Wave 1 is closer to consensus than discovery. Wave 3 (TSEM/ALAB) remains the momentum layer. Wave 4 (LWLG/pre-revenue modulators) is still a separate unresolved binary.

Watch for: COHR Q4 earnings Aug 2026 (does datacenter growth hold or decelerate after the confirmed May 6 Q3 print), AAOI 1.6T shipments Q3 2026 (Wave 3 validation), LWLG SilTerra tapeout mid-2026 (Wave 4 viability), NVIDIA Spectrum-X Photonics CPO H2 2026 (Wave 4 catalyst + power-delivery proof point), NVIDIA Quantum-X Photonics ramp (power-budget driven), MTSI/SIVEF summary refreshes (Wave 2/4 read), ALMU pivot validation (TSEM partnership / IP / production capacity disclosures), Aschenbrenner Q2 13F 2026-08-15 (does he re-establish any optical exposure or stay absent — partial un-contest vs hardened-contest) PROMOTE (→ book slot 4 candidate): optics re-emerges as the cheapest expression of the Pilla...

physics-down3d agoas of
paradigm track record 83% · 2.5/3 verdicts physics-down · high confidence · small sample (n=3) AI Optical Supercycle: HITAI Power Bottleneck: HITGulf Infrastructure Strike: PARTIAL

The thesis basket — the 19 tickers this perspective actually tracks. Everything else it has touched is folded below.

LITE $968.90 +32.2% 30d coming into play COHR $351.22 +26.5% 30d coming into play CIEN $445.18 +18.9% 30d coming into play FN $598.58 +25.1% 30d coming into play MTSI $327.53 +22.5% 30d coming into play SMTC $154.22 +23.4% 30d coming into play CRDO $282.82 +39.5% 30d coming into play TSEM $263.73 +12.7% 30d coming into play ALAB $320.17 +5.5% 30d coming into play LWLG $7.42 +19.1% 30d coming into play SIVEF $4.26 +16.1% 30d too-young AXTI $95.97 +109.3% 30d coming into play VIAV $46.26 +21.2% 30d coming into play GLW $173.21 +12.0% 30d coming into play ONTO $351.16 +25.5% 30d coming into play ALMU $17.78 +21.8% 30d retreating SOI.PA $133.50 +52.9% 30d coming into play LPK.DE $15.05 +0.3% 30d coming into play LAZR $50.50 +34.9% 30d too-young
Seen alongside in scans (29 shown of 237) — symbols that appear with this perspective, not the thesis basket
005930.KS $284,500.00 +11.6% 30d coming into play AAL $14.43 -3.7% 30d coming into play AAOI $154.89 +51.2% 30d coming into play AAPL $305.59 -8.4% 30d coming into play AEHR $145.61 +79.7% 30d in trend AMAT $535.31 +1.1% 30d coming into play AMD $506.00 +2.1% 30d coming into play AMKR $61.30 -2.6% 30d coming into play AMZN $261.31 +5.7% 30d in trend AOSL $31.07 -0.6% 30d coming into play APD $300.86 +1.8% 30d coming into play APLD $31.18 +20.9% 30d retreating ARM $271.43 +1.6% 30d coming into play ASHR $35.20 +4.7% 30d coming into play ASML $1,883.12 +7.9% 30d in trend ASPI $4.02 +3.6% 30d retreating ASTS $71.14 +23.1% 30d retreating ASX $39.91 +3.9% 30d coming into play ATEYY $237.44 +33.4% 30d in trend ATI $231.78 +24.5% 30d in trend AVGO $392.43 +5.8% 30d coming into play BA $225.95 +5.6% 30d coming into play BABA $124.71 +8.5% 30d retreating BE $232.16 +8.0% 30d coming into play BEAM $27.10 -1.6% 30d coming into play BESIY $274.40 +6.2% 30d coming into play
Show all 237 ticker links
$005930.KS$AAL$AAOI$AAPL$AEHR$ALRIB$AMAT$AMD$AMKR$AMZN$AOSL$APD$APLD$ARM$ASHR$ASML$ASPI$ASTS$ASX$ATEYY$ATI$AVGO$BA$BABA$BE$BEAM$BESI$BESIY$BIGB$BKSY$BOTZ$BST$BSTZ$BTC$BUFR$BWXT$CCJ$CEG$CGEH$CGNX$CHAT$CIFR$CLSK$COP$COPX$CORZ$CRCL$CROX$CRWD$CRWV$CVX$DAL$DD$DGXX$DHR$DIA$DIVO$DPZ$DRAM$ECHO$ENTG$EQT$EWJ$EWT$EWY$FBTC$FLY$FOCI$FORM$FTNT$FXI$GBTC$GD$GE$GEV$GLD$GOOGL$GSAT$HAL$HEI$HIMS$HIMX$HON$HONA$HOOD$HUMN$HUT$HWM$IBIT$ICHR$IEF$IFNNY$INTC$IQE$IQV$IRDM$IREN$IWM$JBL$JCI$JEPI$JEPQ$JETS$KGS$KLAC$KLIC$KMI$KTOS$KWEB$KYMR$LASR$LDOS$LEU$LHX$LIN$LIT$LMT$LPKF$LPTH$LRCX$LULU$LUNR$MA$MACOM$MAGS$MARA$MCHP$MEDP$META$MOG.A$MP$MPWR$MRNA$MRVL$MSFT$MSTR$MSTU$MSTX$MSTY$MTUM$MU$MXL$NBIS$NDK$NEE$NGKIF$NKE$NLR$NOC$NOK$NTAP$NUKZ$NVDA$NVDL$NVDY$NVTS$OIH$OKLO$OKTA$OPTX$ORCL$PANW$PDI$PL$PLTR$POET$POWL$QLD$QQQ$QYLD$RDW$RIOT$RKLB$RMBS$ROBO$RSP$RTX$SAIC$SBUX$SEI$SIVE$SLB$SLV$SMH$SMR$SMTOY$SNDK$SOXL$SPCX$SPGI$SPY$STM$STX$SWKS$T$TDG$TDY$TECL$TER$TLN$TLT$TMO$TQQQ$TSLA$TSLL$TSLY$TSM$TWST$UBER$URNM$USO$UUP$VICR$VIXY$VPG$VSAT$VST$VTI$VTV$VUG$VXX$WDC$WGMI$XBI$XLB$XLC$XLE$XLF$XLI$XLK$XLP$XLRE$XLU$XLV$XLY$XOM$ZS
no live data (3) — unresolved, delisted, or non-US symbols
$ALRIB$BESI$BIGB

The Thread

The thesis as it unfolds — by source type (the symbol grid above is the current state).

Recent Shifts

10

Signals

1

Research

16

Captures

13

Calendar & Lifecycle

27