AI optics: bandwidth becomes supplier earnings · Campaigns

Campaign

AI optics: bandwidth becomes supplier earnings

active · AI · Optics

Horizon 6–18 months; the shared test with the AI-spending counter-case runs through March 2027. Last research review Latest evidence Priority high

Ideas and calls

Long, bearish, hedge and relative-value ideas can coexist. Only explicitly issued calls enter the existing scoreboard; short and hedge performance is not graded.

Issued calls · returns compare the symbol with SPY after 30 and 90 days. Positive excess supports a BUY; negative excess supports TRIM or SELL. WAIT and research ideas have no score. These are call outcomes, not a campaign return.

Entry and invalidationHorizon / review30 days90 days
LITEWAIT2026-10-02 · openOriginal call

A flag that holds above the 20-day average ($941.73 at the Oct 2 close) while RSI cools below 60, then a close at a new 52-week high

Invalidation: A close below the 50-day ($879.03 at the Oct 2 close), or fiscal Q1 2027 revenue below the $1.225B low end of guidance at the report expected around Nov 5

Not recordedReview 2026-11-06
Not gradedNot graded
AXTIPASS2026-07-08 · openOriginal call

reopen only if it bases above its 200-day (~$42.55) for a full quarter AND revenue inflects — a collapsed 25x parabolic with sub-$100M revenue and operating losses is a lottery aftermath, not a trend

Invalidation: n/a — not owned; the pass is wrong if the substrate cycle produces a durable base and profitability

Not recordedReview 2026-10-01
Not gradedNot graded
CGNXBUY2026-07-08 · resolved:hitOriginal call

the steady one — EPS tripled over three quarters on a wire-flagged margin inflection and the tape barely flinched; buy the 20-day reclaim (~$66)

Invalidation: a finish under the 200-day (~$49) — the machine-vision recovery thesis is dead there

Not recordedReview 2026-08-15
+0.60 pp vs SPY-1.03 pp vs SPY
CRDOBUY2026-07-08 · openOriginal call

elite fundamentals (33% operating margin on $1.34B FY26 revenue) with the least-damaged tape in the sweep — already flagging under its 20-day; buy the reclaim (~$255.50)

Invalidation: a finish under the 200-day (~$160) — until then pullbacks are digestion in an intact uptrend

Not recordedReview 2026-09-15
-7.14 pp vs SPY-19.16 pp vs SPY
EQTWAIT2026-07-08 · openOriginal call

the fundamentals are the best in the sweep (net income nearly quadrupled in two quarters) but the tape trades below its 200-day — watch for the reclaim of the ~$55.60 cluster (50-day, 200-day, one-year VWAP)

Invalidation: gas strip rolling over while price stays below the 200-day through the October print

Not recordedReview 2026-10-01
Not gradedNot graded
KGSBUY2026-07-08 · resolved:invalidatedOriginal call

the sleeper — record Q1, raised full-year guidance to include the Distributed Power acquisition, and a 300–500MW/yr power-generation growth outlook through 2030; buy the 50-day reclaim (~$70)

Invalidation: a finish under $57.50 (top of the prior value area) says the datacenter-power re-rate failed

Not recordedReview 2026-08-15
-18.00 pp vs SPY-24.52 pp vs SPY
LASRBUY2026-07-08 · resolved:hitOriginal call

defense photonics inflected to GAAP profit on +55% revenue with record defense product sales — buy the reclaim of $65.50 (the one-year point of control)

Invalidation: a finish under the ~$51 cluster (200-day and one-year VWAP), or defense revenue momentum stalling at the next print

Not recordedReview 2026-08-15
-8.03 pp vs SPY-36.30 pp vs SPY
MXLWAIT2026-07-08 · openOriginal call

wire-flagged inflection but already a 4.5x over the year and −16% this week on no news we can find — needs the flag to hold; interest returns above the 20-day (~$91)

Invalidation: a finish under the one-year VWAP (~$50.66) unwinds the entire re-rate

Not recordedReview 2026-08-15
Not gradedNot graded
TERBUY2026-07-08 · resolved:hitOriginal call

the −21% week has no company event behind it — Q1 revenue rose 87% with a 21% EPS beat and the wire flagged the margin inflection; buy the 50-day reclaim (~$383), with the July 28 print as the catalyst

Invalidation: a finish under the 200-day (~$270), or the July 28 print showing the 'lumpy, concentrated among large customers' risk arriving early

Not recordedReview 2026-08-15
+4.15 pp vs SPY+17.88 pp vs SPY
No records in this view yet.