Market Pulse — Macro Dashboard

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Market Pulse — Macro Dashboard

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 82 rows · screens, not recommendations

The board carries a Friday 2026-08-28 settled close, and the headline is a split tape: the broad benchmarks mostly firmed or held steady on RSI this week while small caps diverged hard (IWM's RSI fell 7.3 points and its trend flag flipped to weak-down), and gold posted the sharpest reversal on the entire board (RSI 71.2 to 54.6, -16.6) after last cycle's overbought extension. Every long-horizon check still points up across the broad indices and most sectors — all five benchmarks and eight of eleven sectors sit above their 200-day with double-digit 1-year gains — while Utilities, the bond complex, FXI, and housing remain the board's genuine standing weak spots. All 42 names in this dashboard carry a fresh 2026-08-28 close (market-pulse) — no staleness caveat.

LONG-HORIZON READ: this dashboard applies the desk's binding rule — a name whose short-window trend flag reads "down" but sits ABOVE its 200-day with a positive 1-year change is called a deep pullback in an intact trend, never a breakdown. Only a name trading BELOW its 200-day with a weak or negative year is called genuinely broken.


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 A split tape — SPY/QQQ/DIA/VTI mostly firmed or held steady on RSI while IWM diverged sharply lower, and last cycle's extended leaders (XLE, XLV, GLD, SLV) all cooled hard; the long-horizon numbers still confirm intact secular uptrends everywhere except Utilities, bonds, FXI, and housing
Key insight GLD's RSI collapsed from 71.2 to 54.6 (-16.6), the board's single sharpest move this cycle, even though its 1-year change (+29.79%) stays comfortably positive — a violent cooldown inside a still-strong trend
Standout leadership XLE (RSI 62.1) and XLV (RSI 57.1) both cooled from near-overbought but remain the board's best 1-year sector performers (+42.75% and +27.09%), both still comfortably above their 200-day
Structural headwind The bond complex (TLT, IEF, HYG, LQD, BND) remains death-crossed and negative on the year even as TLT and LQD both firmed several RSI points this week — a bounce inside continued weakness, not a repair
Caveat None — every ticker in this dashboard carries a fresh 2026-08-28 close

What's Going On

The broad tape's dominant move this week is a divergence rather than a uniform trend. SPY's RSI ticked up from 54.2 to 56.6, QQQ from 50.1 to 51.9, DIA from 52.3 to 55.3, and VTI from 54.2 to 55.3 — all four steadying or firming off last cycle's pullback. IWM is the one clear exception: its RSI fell from 52.6 to 45.3 (-7.3) and its trend flag flipped from strong-up to weak-down. But every one of the five broad indices remains comfortably above its 200-day (SPY +8.4%, QQQ +9.3%, DIA +7.6%, IWM +9.0%, VTI +8.4%) with double-digit 1-year gains — IWM's own +26.20% is the best of the group — so even its rough week reads as a deep pullback inside an intact trend, not a breakdown.

Sector rotation shows a similar cooldown-from-extension pattern. Energy (XLE) and Healthcare (XLV), last cycle's clear leaders, both pulled back from near-overbought (XLE 71.7→62.1, XLV 68.3→57.1) but keep the board's best 1-year sector gains (+42.75% and +27.09%) and stay comfortably above their 200-day. Industrials (XLI) fell into the oversold band (43.0→37.8) for the first time this stretch, but its +15.46% 1-year change and +4.1% distance above its 200-day say deep pullback, not weakness. Utilities remains the genuine casualty: XLU's price still sits 4.4% below its own 200-day with a barely positive year (+3.14%) and the sector's worst alpha (-16.73), even though its RSI actually firmed slightly this cycle (32.6→35.8). Communication Services (XLC) carries the same below-200-day flag on a smaller scale, and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) remains the group's weakest convincing chart at just 0.2% above its own 200-day.

Commodities delivered the board's sharpest single reversal. GLD's RSI collapsed 16.6 points (71.2→54.6) — its biggest move this cycle — while SLV fell 12.4 points (66.8→54.4); both still carry strong years (GLD +29.79%, SLV +68.98%), but SLV is now trading further below its own 200-day than last cycle (-7.7%, deepening from -2.8%), extending the volatile round-trip pattern the desk has flagged before rather than settling into a clean uptrend. COPX and USO both cooled from extension but remain the board's clearest commodity leaders on the 1-year window (COPX +92.93%, USO +72.38%). The bond complex showed early signs of stabilizing — TLT's RSI rose 6.4 points and LQD's rose 5.0 — but all five names stay death-crossed and negative on the year, so this reads as a bounce inside continued structural weakness.

Volatility stayed essentially pinned through the whole week: VIXY and VXX both remained in collapse regime (RSI 31.7 and 32.1), barely moved from last cycle even as GLD, SLV, XLE, and XLV all cooled hard and IWM's trend flipped — no hedging bid showed up anywhere on this board. Within factors, VUG posted the board's single best positive RSI move (+5.0, to 56.0), while MTUM and SMH continued cooling on short-window trend flags that their long-horizon numbers clearly overrule (MTUM +21.68% 1-year, SMH +85.64% 1-year, both still well above their 200-day). Housing (XHB, ITB) remains tethered to the bond complex's weakness, both below their 200-day with negative 1-year changes.


What Changed Since the 2026-08-22 Pulse

  1. IWM diverged sharply from the rest of the broad group: RSI 52.6→45.3 (-7.3), trend flag flipped strong-up to weak-down — the one broad-index casualty this cycle, though still 9.0% above its 200-day with the group's best 1-year gain.
  2. GLD posted the board's sharpest single-name move: RSI 71.2→54.6 (-16.6), cooling out of last cycle's overbought read.
  3. SLV cooled hard and drifted further below its own 200-day: RSI 66.8→54.4 (-12.4); vs SMA200 deepened from -2.8% to -7.7%.
  4. XLE and XLV both cooled sharply from near-overbought/breakout extension: XLE 71.7→62.1 (-9.6); XLV 68.3→57.1 (-11.2) — both remain the board's best 1-year sector gainers.
  5. XLI fell into the oversold band for the first time this stretch: RSI 43.0→37.8 (-5.2), still above its 200-day with a positive year.
  6. XBI, VTV, and RSP all cooled from last cycle's near-highs: XBI 63.4→53.9 (-9.5); VTV 62.0→55.1 (-6.9); RSP 60.3→55.3 (-5.0).
  7. The bond complex's RSI firmed even as the 1-year picture stayed negative: TLT 43.0→49.4 (+6.4); LQD 42.4→47.4 (+5.0) — a bounce, not a repair.
  8. UNG bounced within a still-broken chart: RSI 44.5→53.0 (+8.5), regime remains collapse, still 12.7% below its 200-day.
  9. VUG posted the board's best positive RSI move: RSI 51.0→56.0 (+5.0).
  10. VIXY/VXX held essentially flat in collapse regime — no hedging bid despite the week's commodity and small-cap weakness.

How To Read The Board

RSI < 25 = capitulation. RSI 25-40 = oversold (check trend/death-cross before treating as a buy signal). RSI 40-70 = neutral-to-healthy. RSI > 70 = overbought/extended. "vs SMA" = distance from the 20-day average (short-term positioning). "vs SMA200" and "1Y%" are the long-horizon check: a name with a red short-window trend flag but a positive 1Y change and price above its 200-day is a deep pullback in an intact trend, not a breakdown — the reverse (below the 200-day, flat-or-negative year) is real structural weakness regardless of how the current week looks.


Broad Indices

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Trend Signal
SPY $769.35 56.6 $769.22 0.0% +0.48% +5.47% +19.87% +8.4% strong-up 🟢 Steady, intact trend
QQQ $716.43 51.9 $717.94 -0.2% +0.42% +8.27% +24.61% +9.3% strong-up 🟢 Firmed off last cycle's pullback
DIA $535.06 55.3 $535.75 -0.1% +0.54% +3.81% +17.13% +7.6% strong-up 🟢 Steady, intact trend
IWM $295.75 45.3 $300.26 -1.5% -1.39% +2.49% +26.20% +9.0% weak-down 🟡 Sharpest RSI drop of the group (-7.3) but best 1-year gain, still 9% above its 200-day — deep pullback
VTI $379.36 55.3 $379.84 -0.1% +0.28% +5.25% +18.51% +8.4% strong-up 🟢 Steady, intact trend

Read: Four of five broad benchmarks firmed or held steady on RSI this cycle; IWM is the one divergence, but its long-horizon numbers say deep pullback, not a breakdown.


Sector Rotation (11 SPDR XL* ETFs)

Sector Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Trend Signal
XLE (Energy) $62.68 62.1 $61.26 +2.3% -1.51% +6.87% +42.75% +15.3% strong-up 🟢 Cooled from near-overbought, still the board's best 1-year sector gain
XLV (Healthcare) $171.16 57.1 $169.25 +1.1% -1.98% +2.96% +27.09% +10.5% strong-up 🟢 Cooled from breakout regime, second-best 1-year gain
XLB (Materials) $53.18 56.9 $52.71 +0.9% -0.65% +2.78% +15.41% +6.7% strong-up 🟢 Steady, intact trend
XLC (Comm Svcs) $112.99 56.3 $111.64 +1.2% +1.41% +3.18% +1.24% -0.9% weak-up 🔴 Below its 200-day, worst-adjacent alpha (-18.64) — same problem as Utilities, smaller scale
XLF (Financials) $58.10 58.5 $57.84 +0.5% +1.08% +2.51% +9.19% +8.9% strong-up 🟢 Steady, intact trend
XLK (Technology) $185.69 53.0 $185.56 +0.1% +1.29% +11.48% +39.90% +16.5% strong-up 🟢 Best 1-year sector gain on the board
XLY (Cons Discret) $117.21 50.8 $117.97 -0.6% -0.68% +5.02% +0.11% +0.2% up 🟡 Only 0.2% above its 200-day, still death-crossed — the group's weakest convincing chart
XLP (Staples) $85.45 49.8 $85.57 -0.1% -0.66% -2.19% +6.47% +2.8% strong-up 🟡 Modest year, weak alpha (-13.41)
XLRE (Real Estate) $44.48 43.3 $44.91 -1.0% -1.33% -3.22% +5.70% +3.5% weak-down 🟡 Roughly flat, intact trend
XLI (Industrials) $177.14 37.8 $182.99 -3.2% -1.73% +0.27% +15.46% +4.1% weak-down 🟡 Fell into the oversold band but still above its 200-day with a positive year — deep pullback
XLU (Utilities) $42.73 35.8 $43.64 -2.1% -0.12% -4.85% +3.14% -4.4% strong-down 🔴 Board's real casualty — below its 200-day, barely positive year, worst sector alpha

Read: XLE and XLV remain the board's leaders on every long-horizon window even after cooling hard from extension. XLU stays the one sector where the long-horizon check confirms real damage; XLC carries the same flag on a smaller scale. XLI's drop into the oversold band is a rough week inside an intact trend, not a breakdown.


International

ETF Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Trend Signal
EFA (Dev Int'l) $107.72 54.4 $107.92 -0.2% -0.49% +4.21% +17.06% +6.4% strong-up 🟢 Steady, intact trend
EEM (Emg Mkts) $67.14 55.1 $66.24 +1.4% +0.03% +9.94% +35.94% +9.3% strong-up 🟢 Group leader — best 1-year gain, beating the market (alpha +16.07)
VWO (Emg Mkts) $60.79 58.4 $60.22 +0.9% +0.53% +6.80% +17.63% +6.2% strong-up 🟢 Steady, intact trend
FXI (China) $35.51 52.6 $35.64 -0.4% -1.06% -1.69% -7.91% -3.6% weak-up 🔴 Group's real laggard — below its 200-day, negative year, worst alpha (-27.78)
EWJ (Japan) $95.87 54.4 $95.85 0.0% +0.73% +7.30% +25.76% +8.6% strong-up 🟢 Steady, second-best alpha in the group

Read: EEM and EWJ both lead on the long-horizon check; FXI remains the one name where the numbers confirm real damage, not just a rough week.


Bonds

ETF Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Trend Signal
HYG (High Yield) $79.74 52.7 $79.64 +0.1% +0.14% +0.63% -1.57% -0.5% weak-up 🟡 Least damaged of the five, essentially flat
TLT (20yr Tsy) $82.88 49.4 $82.50 +0.5% +1.01% +0.04% -4.98% -4.1% strong-down 🔴 RSI firmed the most of the complex but still death-crossed, below its 200-day
LQD (Inv Grade Corp) $106.35 47.4 $106.31 0.0% +0.41% +0.12% -3.49% -2.6% strong-down 🔴 RSI firmed but still structurally damaged
BND (Total Bond) $72.31 46.4 $72.36 -0.1% +0.12% -0.10% -2.14% -1.8% strong-down 🔴 Structurally damaged, mild
IEF (7-10yr Tsy) $92.85 44.8 $93.07 -0.2% +0.04% -0.34% -3.51% -2.4% strong-down 🔴 Structurally damaged

Read: All five names remain death-crossed, below their 200-day, and negative on the year — TLT and LQD both firmed several RSI points this cycle, but that reads as a bounce inside continued weakness, not a repair.


Commodities

ETF Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Trend Signal
COPX (Copper) $94.42 64.7 $89.24 +5.8% -0.17% +24.01% +92.93% +18.0% strong-up 🟢 Cooled from near-overbought, still the board's best 1-year gain
GLD (Gold) $408.89 54.6 $404.83 +1.0% -3.45% +10.19% +29.79% -1.4% weak-up 🟡 Board's sharpest single-name move (RSI -16.6) but still a strong year
USO (Oil) $129.70 53.8 $126.43 +2.6% -3.73% +0.30% +72.38% +22.6% strong-up 🟢 Cooled but deeply above its 200-day, strong year intact
SLV (Silver) $60.02 54.4 $58.98 +1.8% -4.29% +15.94% +68.98% -7.7% weak-up 🟡 Big year but trading further below its own 200-day than last cycle — a volatile round trip deepening
UNG (Nat Gas) $10.33 53.0 $10.04 +2.9% +3.50% +4.03% -17.82% -12.7% strong-down 🔴 Bounced on RSI but still in collapse regime, well below its 200-day

Read: Gold posted the board's single sharpest reversal — cooling 16.6 RSI points off last cycle's overbought read — while still carrying a strong year. Silver's drift further below its 200-day (now -7.7%, from -2.8% last cycle) is the complex's one real long-horizon flag.


Volatility

ETF Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Trend Signal
VXX $18.36 32.1 $19.55 -6.1% -3.12% -21.61% -48.21% -32.8% strong-down 🔴 Still crushed, collapse regime
VIXY $17.66 31.7 $18.83 -6.2% -2.97% -21.62% -48.89% -33.2% strong-down 🔴 Same story

Read: Both products stayed essentially pinned in collapse regime this cycle even as GLD, SLV, XLE, and XLV all cooled hard and IWM's trend flipped — still no hedging bid on this board.


Factors & Thematic

Ticker Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Trend Signal
XBI (Biotech) $162.38 53.9 $160.22 +1.3% -1.99% +9.78% +80.48% +21.1% strong-up 🟢 Cooled from near highs, still best alpha in the dashboard (+60.61)
VUG (Growth) $88.54 56.0 $88.36 +0.2% +1.18% +7.88% +14.50% +7.7% strong-up 🟢 Board's best positive RSI move this cycle (+5.0)
VTV (Value) $225.29 55.1 $225.52 -0.1% -0.48% +2.50% +23.01% +9.5% strong-up 🟢 Steady, intact trend
RSP (Equal Wt S&P) $220.69 55.3 $220.79 0.0% -0.44% +2.30% +16.92% +8.8% strong-up 🟢 Steady, intact trend
QUAL (Quality) $223.62 53.6 $224.50 -0.4% +0.17% +3.54% +17.89% +8.0% strong-up 🟢 Steady, intact trend
MTUM (Momentum) $299.71 42.2 $308.36 -2.8% -1.86% +5.86% +21.68% +8.0% weak-down 🟡 Continued cooling but still above its 200-day with a strong year — deep pullback
SMH (Semis) $553.11 45.0 $569.07 -2.8% -1.30% +9.70% +85.64% +17.1% weak-down 🟡 Roughly flat, 17.1% above its 200-day with a huge year

Read: XBI remains the clean leader of this group; MTUM and SMH both continue to carry short-window "down" flags that the long-horizon numbers clearly overrule.


Housing

ETF Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Trend Signal
ITB (Home Const.) $96.41 46.7 $98.26 -1.9% -1.12% -0.18% -12.91% -2.2% strong-down 🔴 Below its 200-day, negative year, tracking bond-complex weakness
XHB (Homebuilders) $104.60 42.4 $107.71 -2.9% -1.78% -0.08% -8.57% -2.3% down 🔴 Same story

Read: Both housing names sit below their 200-day with negative 1-year changes, tracking the bond complex's "higher for longer" headwind rather than the equity market's broader strength.


Cross-Group Analysis

This cycle's dominant pattern is a split tape: the broad benchmarks mostly firmed or held steady on RSI while small caps diverged sharply lower (IWM), and last cycle's extended leadership (XLE, XLV, GLD, SLV, COPX) all cooled hard from near-overbought without breaking their long-horizon trends. All five broad benchmarks and eight of eleven sectors remain above their 200-day with double-digit 1-year gains; only Utilities and Communication Services carry real structural damage on the sector side (both below their 200-day, both flat-to-barely-positive on the year, both badly negative on alpha). The bond complex showed its first signs of stabilizing RSI this cycle (TLT and LQD both firmed several points) but the 1-year and vs-200-day numbers stayed negative across all five names — a bounce, not a repair — and that weakness tracks straight through to housing (XHB, ITB), which shows the same below-200-day, negative-year pattern. Commodities delivered the board's most violent single move: gold's RSI collapse (-16.6 points) dwarfs anything on the equity side, yet its 1-year change stays comfortably positive — a textbook deep pullback in an intact trend rather than a breakdown. Volatility stayed crushed through the whole cycle, with no hedging bid showing up in VIXY or VXX despite the week's small-cap weakness and commodity reversal. Read together, this looks like broad-based digestion inside intact secular uptrends rather than the start of a risk-off move — but IWM's sharp divergence and gold's violent reversal are both worth tracking if either extends into the next cycle.


Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI < 25)

None on this board.

Oversold (RSI 25-40)

XLI (37.8), XLU (35.8), VIXY (31.7), VXX (33.7 → 32.1) — four names. XLU carries real structural damage (below its 200-day, weak year, worst sector alpha); XLI is a deep pullback inside an intact trend; VIXY/VXX being oversold reads as bullish for equities (crushed volatility), not a buy signal for the vol products themselves.

Neutral-Strong (RSI 40+)

The remaining 38 names, led by COPX (64.7), XLE (62.1), XLF (58.5), VWO (58.4), and XLB (56.9).


Entry Zones

Ticker Zone Thesis Status
SPY / QQQ / DIA / VTI Hold Firmed off last cycle's pullback, intact secular uptrends 🔒 Hold
IWM Watch Sharpest divergence on the board this cycle, but still 9% above its 200-day with the group's best year 🔍 Watch
XLE / XLV Watch for exhaustion Board's clearest long-horizon leaders, both cooled hard from near-overbought 🔍 Watch
XLU Avoid / watch for repair Only sector where the long-horizon read confirms real damage ⚠️ Avoid
XLC / XLY Watch Below/near-flat vs their own 200-day 🔍 Watch
XLI Watch Fell into oversold but passes the long-horizon check 🔍 Watch
FXI Watch, structurally damaged Below its 200-day and negative on the year 🔍 Watch
TLT / IEF / LQD / BND Watch, structurally damaged Death-crossed, below their 200-day, negative year despite RSI firming 🔍 Watch
HYG Hold Least-damaged bond name, essentially flat 🔒 Hold
COPX / USO Watch for exhaustion Strong extension, near overbought 🔍 Watch
GLD Watch Sharpest reversal on the board, still a strong year 🔍 Watch
SLV Watch Huge 1-year gain but drifting further below its 200-day — a deepening round trip 🔍 Watch
UNG Avoid Collapse regime, well below its 200-day ⚠️ Avoid
VIXY / VXX No signal Crushed on every window, no hedging bid ⚠️ Avoid
MTUM / SMH Watch Short-window flags read weak but both pass the long-horizon check cleanly 🔍 Watch
XHB / ITB Watch, structurally damaged Below their 200-day, negative year 🔍 Watch

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
SPY, QQQ, DIA, VTI 🟢 🔒 Hold Firmed off last cycle's pullback, intact trends
IWM 🟡 🔍 Watch Sharpest divergence this cycle, still a deep pullback by the long-horizon check
XLE, XLV 🟢 🔍 Watch Board's clearest leadership, cooled from near-overbought
XLB, XLF, XLRE 🟢 🔒 Hold Steady, intact trends
XLY 🟡 🔍 Watch Only 0.2% above its 200-day, still death-crossed
XLC 🔴 🔍 Watch Below its 200-day, badly negative alpha
XLI 🟡 🔍 Watch Fell into oversold, long-horizon check clean
XLU 🔴 ⚠️ Avoid Real structural damage
EFA, EEM, VWO, EWJ 🟢 🔒 Hold Broad international strength
FXI 🔴 ⚠️ Avoid Below its 200-day, negative year
HYG 🟡 🔍 Watch Least-damaged bond chart
BND, IEF, LQD, TLT 🔴 ⚠️ Avoid Entire complex death-crossed, below 200-day, negative year
COPX, USO 🟠 🔍 Watch Strong extension
GLD, SLV 🟡 🔍 Watch Sharp reversal / deepening round trip
UNG 🔴 ⚠️ Avoid Collapse regime
VIXY, VXX 🔴 ⚠️ Avoid Crushed, no signal, no hedging bid
XBI, VTV, RSP, QUAL, VUG 🟢 🔒 Hold Intact trends across the factor complex
MTUM, SMH 🟡 🔍 Watch Rough week, clean long-horizon check
XHB, ITB 🔴 ⚠️ Avoid Below their 200-day, negative year

What To Watch Next

  • Whether IWM's sharp divergence (RSI -7.3, trend flag flipped to weak-down) is the start of a real small-cap breakdown or a one-cycle wobble, given it's still 9% above its own 200-day.
  • Whether gold's violent reversal (RSI -16.6, the board's sharpest move) stabilizes or extends into a real trend break, given SLV is now trading further below its own 200-day than last cycle.
  • Whether volatility staying crushed (VIXY/VXX both flat in collapse regime) through this week's small-cap and commodity weakness is complacency that gets tested, or a genuine all-clear.
  • Whether the bond complex's RSI firming (TLT +6.4, LQD +5.0) is an early repair signal or just a bounce inside a still-negative-year, still-death-crossed complex.
  • Whether XLI's drop into the oversold band deepens or the sector finds a floor given its still-intact long-horizon numbers.

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-28 close — market-pulse.
  • Prior cycle for comparison: 2026-08-22-market-pulse.
8 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.