Market Pulse — Macro Dashboard

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Market Pulse — Macro Dashboard

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 79 rows · screens, not recommendations

The board carries a Friday 2026-08-21 settled close, and the headline is a broad, roughly-uniform RSI cooldown across nearly every equity index, sector, and factor — SPY, QQQ, and IWM all lost 9-12 RSI points this week — but every long-horizon check still points up: all five broad benchmarks and eight of eleven sectors sit above their 200-day with double-digit 1-year gains. The two real casualties are Utilities (XLU, RSI cratering back to 32.6, its sharpest single-name move on the board) and the bond complex, where all five names are death-crossed, below their 200-day, and negative on the year — a genuine standing headwind, not a short-window blip. All 42 names carry a fresh 2026-08-21 close (market-pulse) — no staleness caveat.

LONG-HORIZON READ: this dashboard applies the desk's binding rule — a name whose short-window trend flag reads "down" but sits ABOVE its 200-day with a positive 1-year change is called a deep pullback in an intact trend, never a breakdown. Only a name trading BELOW its 200-day with a weak or negative year is called genuinely broken.


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Broad cooldown, not a breakdown — nearly every equity name lost 8-15 RSI points this week, but the long-horizon numbers (1Y change, vs 200-day) still confirm intact secular uptrends everywhere except Utilities and bonds
Key insight XLU's RSI fell from 48.2 to 32.6 (-15.6), the board's sharpest single-name move, and is the one sector where the long-horizon read also confirms real damage: below its 200-day, barely positive on the year (+2.1%), worst sector alpha (-19.71)
Standout leadership XLE (RSI 71.7) and XLV (RSI 68.3) are both in a breakout regime, near 52-week highs, with the board's best 1-year sector gains (+50.84% and +29.08%)
Structural headwind The entire bond complex (TLT, IEF, HYG, LQD, BND) is death-crossed, below its 200-day, and negative on the year — this is the one group where short- and long-horizon reads agree on real weakness
Caveat None — every ticker in this dashboard carries a fresh 2026-08-21 close

What's Going On

The tape's dominant move this week is a broad RSI cooldown, not a rotation into weakness. SPY fell from RSI 65.8 to 54.2, QQQ from 59.6 to 50.1, IWM from 63.7 to 52.6, and RSP from 71.0 to 60.3 — all four broad benchmarks losing roughly 10 RSI points on 7-day declines of -0.86% to -2.41%. But every one of the five broad indices remains comfortably above its 200-day (SPY +8.2%, QQQ +9.3%, DIA +7.4%, IWM +11.1%, VTI +8.4%) with double-digit 1-year gains (SPY +21.82%, QQQ +27.13%, IWM the group's best at +33.8%). This is a deep pullback inside intact secular uptrends — even QQQ, whose short-window trend flag now reads "weak-down."

Sector rotation tells the same story with two real exceptions. Energy (XLE) and Healthcare (XLV) are this week's clear leaders — both extended further into a breakout regime, both near their 52-week highs, both carrying the board's best 1-year sector gains (XLE +50.84%, XLV +29.08%). Tech (XLK) had the roughest week of any sector on a short-window basis (7D -3.53%) but sits 15.7% above its 200-day with the group's best year (+42.18%) — another deep pullback, not a breakdown. Utilities is the genuine casualty: XLU's RSI collapse (48.2→32.6) is the board's sharpest single-name move, and unlike Tech, the long-horizon numbers confirm real damage — below its 200-day (-4.4%), barely positive on the year (+2.1%), and the sector's worst alpha (-19.71). Communication Services (XLC) carries the same flags on a smaller scale: below its 200-day (-2.3%), +1.52% on the year, alpha -20.29.

The bond complex is the one place this cycle where the short read and the long read fully agree: TLT, IEF, HYG, LQD, and BND are all death-crossed, all below their 200-day, and all negative on the year — the "higher for longer" story is a standing headwind, not a short-window wobble. Commodities pulled the opposite direction from equities: COPX's RSI jumped from 57.9 to 69.9 (+12.0), the board's sharpest positive move, while GLD (63.3→71.2) and SLV (59.8→66.8) both pushed further into strength. Natural gas (UNG) remains the commodity complex's outlier, still in a collapse regime and 16.2% below its 200-day. FXI reversed its own prior-cycle breakdown (RSI 46.4→57.9) but still trades below its 200-day with a negative year — a bounce inside a still-damaged chart, not a repaired one.

Volatility stayed crushed through the whole pullback — VIXY and VXX both remain in collapse regime with RSI barely above 32, essentially unchanged from last cycle even as the broad tape lost 8-15 RSI points. No hedging bid showed up during the week's cooldown, which is worth tracking if the pullback deepens rather than stabilizes. Within factors, Momentum (MTUM) and the semis complex (SMH) both look like short-window laggards on their trend flags (weak-down) but both sit deeply above their 200-day with large 1-year gains (MTUM +26.35%, SMH +95.56%) — the same deep-pullback pattern as the broad indices, not a breakdown.


What Changed Since the 2026-08-14 Pulse

No 2026-08-21 edition of this scan exists; this compares against the most recent prior cycle, 2026-08-14.

  1. Broad-based RSI cooldown across nearly every equity index and sector: SPY 65.8→54.2 (-11.6); QQQ 59.6→50.1 (-9.5); IWM 63.7→52.6 (-11.1); RSP 71.0→60.3 (-10.7) — all cooled out of/away from overbought, none broke below its 200-day.
  2. XLU fell back into oversold, the sharpest single-name move on the board: RSI 48.2→32.6 (-15.6).
  3. XLI dropped sharply: RSI 61.3→43.0 (-18.3), now the only sector reading "weak-down" alongside XLK.
  4. FXI reversed its own prior-cycle breakdown: RSI 46.4→57.9 (+11.5), though it remains below its 200-day.
  5. COPX and GLD both extended further into strength: COPX 57.9→69.9 (+12.0); GLD 63.3→71.2 (+7.9) — both now near or at overbought.
  6. XLE and XLV both extended further, the board's clearest leadership: XLE 67.4→71.7; XLV 62.2→68.3.
  7. VTV and QUAL both cooled out of overbought: VTV 72.6→62.0 (-10.6); QUAL 65.6→53.7 (-11.9).
  8. The bond complex cooled further alongside equities, except TLT which ticked up slightly: HYG 62.4→50.7 (-11.7); TLT 40.3→43.0 (+2.7) — all five remain death-crossed and below their 200-day.
  9. VIXY/VXX held essentially flat in collapse regime — no hedging bid despite the broad equity pullback.
  10. SMH and MTUM both cooled sharply on the week but remain deeply above their 200-day (SMH +20%, MTUM +10.4%) — deep pullbacks, not breakdowns.

How To Read The Board

RSI < 25 = capitulation. RSI 25-40 = oversold (check trend/death-cross before treating as a buy signal). RSI 40-70 = neutral-to-healthy. RSI > 70 = overbought/extended. "vs SMA" = distance from the 20-day average (short-term positioning). "vs SMA200" and "1Y%" are the long-horizon check: a name with a red short-window trend flag but a positive 1Y change and price above its 200-day is a deep pullback in an intact trend, not a breakdown — the reverse (below the 200-day, flat-or-negative year) is real structural weakness regardless of how the current week looks.


Broad Indices

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Trend Signal
SPY $765.72 54.2 $762.33 +0.4% -1.37% +2.45% +21.82% +8.2% strong-up 🟢 Deep pullback in an intact trend
QQQ $713.44 50.1 $709.19 +0.6% -2.41% +1.15% +27.13% +9.3% weak-down 🟡 Short-window flag reads weak, but 9.3% above its 200-day with a strong year — deep pullback
DIA $532.22 52.3 $532.54 -0.1% -0.86% +2.06% +18.81% +7.4% strong-up 🟢 Holding steady, intact trend
IWM $299.96 52.6 $298.60 +0.5% -1.68% +2.10% +33.80% +11.1% strong-up 🟢 Best 1-year gain of the broad group
VTI $378.24 54.2 $376.47 +0.5% -1.45% +2.54% +20.94% +8.4% strong-up 🟢 Steady, intact trend

Read: No death crosses in this group. All five sit within a few points of RSI 50-55 after this week's cooldown, and all five carry double-digit 1-year gains well above their 200-day — a uniform pullback, not divergence.


Sector Rotation (11 SPDR XL* ETFs)

Sector Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Trend Signal
XLE (Energy) $63.64 71.7 $60.29 +5.6% +2.75% +7.50% +50.84% +18.1% strong-up 🟠 Board's clearest leader, near overbought, near highs
XLV (Healthcare) $174.62 68.3 $167.09 +4.5% +4.33% +9.53% +29.08% +13.2% strong-up 🟠 Second leader, breakout regime
XLB (Materials) $53.54 61.2 $52.23 +2.5% +1.85% +5.35% +18.45% +8.0% strong-up 🟢 Strongest single day on the board (+2.14%)
XLF (Financials) $57.48 54.9 $57.55 -0.1% -1.19% +2.55% +10.37% +8.0% strong-up 🟢 Steady, intact trend
XLP (Staples) $85.99 54.1 $85.55 +0.5% -0.09% +1.91% +4.27% +3.8% strong-up 🟡 Roughly flat, modest year
XLY (Cons Discret) $118.02 53.7 $116.82 +1.0% -0.17% +3.51% +4.33% +0.8% up 🟡 Only 0.8% above its 200-day, still death-crossed — the group's weakest convincing chart
XLC (Comm Svcs) $111.40 52.5 $110.60 +0.7% -1.35% +2.01% +1.52% -2.3% weak-up 🔴 Below its 200-day, alpha -20.29 — real weakness alongside Utilities
XLRE (Real Estate) $45.08 51.9 $45.07 0.0% -0.44% +0.16% +8.16% +5.1% strong-up 🟡 Roughly flat, intact trend
XLI (Industrials) $180.25 43.0 $183.34 -1.7% -3.36% +0.78% +19.62% +6.3% weak-down 🟡 Sharpest RSI drop of any sector (-18.3) but still above its 200-day with a positive year
XLK (Technology) $183.31 49.5 $182.76 +0.3% -3.53% +1.69% +42.18% +15.7% strong-up 🟢 Roughest week but best 1-year gain in the group — deep pullback, not breakdown
XLU (Utilities) $42.77 32.6 $44.10 -3.0% -3.48% -6.88% +2.10% -4.4% down 🔴 Sharpest single-name RSI move on the board, below its 200-day, worst sector alpha

Read: XLE and XLV are the board's real leadership. XLU is the board's real casualty — the long-horizon check confirms structural weakness, not just a rough week. XLC carries the same below-200-day flag on a smaller scale. XLK and XLI both had rough weeks but pass the long-horizon check cleanly.


International

ETF Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Trend Signal
EFA (Dev Int'l) $108.24 60.2 $107.03 +1.1% -0.36% +3.83% +17.84% +7.2% strong-up 🟢 Steady, intact trend
EEM (Emg Mkts) $67.12 56.7 $65.21 +2.9% +0.75% +3.28% +37.15% +9.8% strong-up 🟢 Group leader — best 1-year gain, beating the market (alpha +15.33)
VWO (Emg Mkts) $60.45 57.6 $59.56 +1.5% +0.57% +2.79% +17.91% +5.9% strong-up 🟢 Steady, intact trend
FXI (China) $35.86 57.9 $35.78 +0.2% +2.75% +4.15% -6.54% -2.9% weak-up 🔴 Group's real laggard — below its 200-day, negative year, badly trailing (alpha -28.36) despite this week's bounce
EWJ (Japan) $95.18 51.8 $94.78 +0.4% -3.11% +3.24% +20.94% +7.7% strong-up 🟡 Roughest week in the group but intact trend

Read: EEM leads on every window; FXI is the one name where the long-horizon check confirms real damage, not just noise.


Bonds

ETF Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Trend Signal
HYG (High Yield) $79.61 50.7 $79.52 +0.1% -0.13% +0.11% -0.74% -0.7% strong-down 🟡 Least damaged of the five — essentially flat, barely below its 200-day
BND (Total Bond) $72.23 44.8 $72.34 -0.1% -0.11% -0.23% -1.55% -1.9% strong-down 🔴 Structurally damaged, mild
IEF (7-10yr Tsy) $92.82 44.0 $93.08 -0.3% -0.24% -0.30% -2.54% -2.6% strong-down 🔴 Structurally damaged
TLT (20yr Tsy) $82.05 43.0 $82.53 -0.6% +0.02% -1.67% -5.05% -5.2% strong-down 🔴 Deepest damage in the complex
LQD (Inv Grade Corp) $105.92 42.4 $106.28 -0.3% -0.18% -0.70% -3.13% -3.1% strong-down 🔴 Structurally damaged

Read: All five names are death-crossed, below their 200-day, and negative on the year — the one group in this dashboard where the short and long reads fully agree on real weakness. HYG is the least damaged of the five.


Commodities

ETF Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Trend Signal
COPX (Copper) $94.59 69.9 $84.82 +11.5% +10.45% +18.25% +102.85% +19.5% strong-up 🟠 Board's best 1-year gain (+102.85%), near overbought after a sharp week
GLD (Gold) $423.36 71.2 $392.64 +7.8% +5.48% +11.67% +37.77% +2.4% up 🟠 Overbought, extended, still a strong year
USO (Oil) $134.64 61.6 $125.72 +7.1% +6.37% +2.25% +81.63% +29.1% strong-up 🟢 Strong across every window, deeply above its 200-day
SLV (Silver) $62.72 66.8 $56.65 +10.7% +7.27% +16.32% +81.22% -2.8% weak-up 🟠 Huge year but currently trading BELOW its 200-day — a volatile round trip, not a clean uptrend
UNG (Nat Gas) $9.99 44.5 $9.96 +0.3% +0.81% -5.75% -19.44% -16.2% strong-down 🔴 Complex's outlier — collapse regime, well below its 200-day, negative year

Read: Gold, silver, oil, and copper all extended into strength this cycle while equities cooled. SLV's -2.8% distance from its own 200-day despite an +81% year is the complex's one long-horizon flag — a volatile metal, not a clean trend the 1-year number alone would suggest.


Volatility

ETF Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Trend Signal
VXX $18.95 33.7 $20.46 -7.4% -2.12% -12.06% -51.74% -31.7% strong-down 🔴 Crushed on every window, collapse regime
VIXY $18.21 32.4 $19.71 -7.6% -2.26% -12.11% -52.32% -32.1% strong-down 🔴 Same story

Read: Both products held essentially flat in collapse regime through the week's broad equity cooldown — no hedging bid showed up despite SPY/QQQ/IWM all losing 9-12 RSI points.


Factors & Thematic

Ticker Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Trend Signal
XBI (Biotech) $165.73 63.4 $155.94 +6.3% +5.27% +8.95% +84.97% +24.9% strong-up 🟢 Group leader — near highs, best alpha in the whole dashboard (+63.15)
VTV (Value) $226.40 62.0 $224.22 +1.0% -0.52% +3.22% +25.12% +10.6% strong-up 🟢 Steady, intact trend
RSP (Equal Wt S&P) $221.67 60.3 $219.34 +1.1% -0.49% +4.22% +19.26% +9.7% strong-up 🟢 Steady, near highs
QUAL (Quality) $223.22 53.7 $223.00 +0.1% -1.16% +2.71% +19.65% +8.2% strong-up 🟢 Steady, intact trend
VUG (Growth) $87.50 51.0 $87.31 +0.2% -2.09% +2.12% +16.36% +6.6% strong-up 🟢 Cooled this week, intact trend
MTUM (Momentum) $305.17 45.8 $306.62 -0.5% -3.87% -2.89% +26.35% +10.4% weak-down 🟡 Worst week in the group but 10.4% above its 200-day — deep pullback, not breakdown
SMH (Semis) $560.42 45.7 $562.94 -0.4% -4.66% -4.51% +95.56% +20.0% weak-down 🟡 Roughest week here but 20% above its 200-day with a 95.56% year — clearly intact

Read: MTUM and SMH both carry short-window "down" flags after rough weeks but pass the long-horizon check cleanly — both remain far above their 200-day with huge 1-year gains. XBI is the clean leader of this group on every window.


Housing

ETF Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Trend Signal
ITB (Home Const.) $97.49 48.8 $98.23 -0.8% -1.36% +2.15% -9.13% -1.2% strong-down 🔴 Below its 200-day, negative year, tracking bond-complex weakness
XHB (Homebuilders) $106.50 46.7 $107.91 -1.3% -2.28% -0.39% -4.34% -0.5% down 🔴 Same story, milder

Read: Both housing names sit below their 200-day with negative 1-year changes — a genuinely weak group that tracks the bond complex's "higher for longer" headwind rather than the equity market's broader strength.


Cross-Group Analysis

This cycle's dominant pattern is a broad, roughly-uniform RSI cooldown across equities — nearly every index, sector, and factor lost 8-15 RSI points on the week — set against a market where the long-horizon numbers still point up almost everywhere. All five broad benchmarks and eight of eleven sectors remain above their 200-day with double-digit 1-year gains; only Utilities and Communication Services carry real structural damage (both below their 200-day, both barely positive on the year, both badly negative on alpha). The bond complex is the one group where the short read and the long read fully agree: all five names are death-crossed, below their 200-day, and negative on the year — a genuine standing headwind, not a short-window blip, and it tracks straight through to housing (XHB, ITB), which shows the same below-200-day, negative-year pattern. Commodities moved the opposite direction from equities this cycle — gold, silver, oil, and copper all extended further into strength — and volatility stayed crushed through the whole equity pullback, with no hedging bid showing up in VIXY or VXX despite the broad ~10-point RSI cooldown. Read together, this looks like rotation and cooling-off inside intact secular uptrends rather than the start of a broad risk-off move — but the total absence of a vol bid during a real equity pullback is the one thing worth tracking if the cooldown deepens rather than stabilizes.


Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI < 25)

None on this board.

Oversold (RSI 25-40)

XLU (32.6), VIXY (32.4), VXX (33.7) — three names. XLU carries real structural damage (below its 200-day, weak year, worst sector alpha); VIXY/VXX being oversold reads as bullish for equities (crushed volatility), not a buy signal for the vol products themselves.

Neutral-Strong (RSI 40+)

The remaining 36 names, led by XLE (71.7), GLD (71.2), COPX (69.9), XLV (68.3), and SLV (66.8).


Entry Zones

Ticker Zone Thesis Status
Broad indices (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, VTI) Hold Deep pullback inside intact secular uptrends, all above their 200-day 🔒 Hold
XLE / XLV Watch for exhaustion Board's clearest leaders, both near overbought 🔍 Watch
XLU Avoid / watch for repair Only sector where the long-horizon read confirms real damage ⚠️ Avoid
XLC Watch Below its 200-day, weak year, smaller version of XLU's problem 🔍 Watch
XLI / XLK Watch Roughest short-window weeks, but pass the long-horizon check cleanly 🔍 Watch
FXI Watch, structurally damaged Below its 200-day and negative on the year despite this week's bounce 🔍 Watch
TLT / IEF / LQD / BND Watch, structurally damaged All death-crossed, below their 200-day, negative year 🔍 Watch
HYG Hold Least-damaged bond name, essentially flat 🔒 Hold
COPX / GLD Watch for exhaustion Near/at overbought after a sharp week 🔍 Watch
SLV Watch Huge 1-year gain but currently below its 200-day — a round trip, not a clean trend 🔍 Watch
UNG Avoid Collapse regime, well below its 200-day ⚠️ Avoid
VIXY / VXX No signal Crushed on every window, no hedging bid ⚠️ Avoid
MTUM / SMH Watch Short-window flags read weak but both pass the long-horizon check cleanly 🔍 Watch
XHB / ITB Watch, structurally damaged Below their 200-day, negative year 🔍 Watch

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, VTI 🟢 🔒 Hold Deep pullback inside intact secular uptrends
XLE, XLV 🟠 🔍 Watch Board's clearest leadership, near overbought
XLB, XLF, XLP, XLRE 🟢 🔒 Hold Steady, intact trends
XLY 🟡 🔍 Watch Only 0.8% above its 200-day, still death-crossed
XLC 🔴 🔍 Watch Below its 200-day, badly negative alpha
XLI, XLK 🟡 🔍 Watch Roughest short-window weeks, long-horizon check clean
XLU 🔴 ⚠️ Avoid Sharpest RSI drop on the board, real structural damage
EFA, EEM, VWO, EWJ 🟢 🔒 Hold Broad international strength
FXI 🔴 ⚠️ Avoid Below its 200-day, negative year
HYG 🟡 🔍 Watch Least-damaged bond chart
BND, IEF, LQD, TLT 🔴 ⚠️ Avoid Entire complex death-crossed, below 200-day, negative year
COPX, GLD, USO 🟠 🔍 Watch Strong extension, near/at overbought
SLV 🟠 🔍 Watch Huge year but below its own 200-day
UNG 🔴 ⚠️ Avoid Collapse regime
VIXY, VXX 🔴 ⚠️ Avoid Crushed, no signal, no hedging bid
XBI, VTV, RSP, QUAL, VUG 🟢 🔒 Hold Intact trends across the factor complex
MTUM, SMH 🟡 🔍 Watch Rough week, clean long-horizon check
XHB, ITB 🔴 ⚠️ Avoid Below their 200-day, negative year

What To Watch Next

  • Whether XLU's collapse back into oversold (RSI 48.2→32.6) is a real breakdown given it's now the one sector where the long-horizon check confirms structural damage.
  • Whether volatility staying crushed (VIXY/VXX both flat in collapse regime) through this week's broad ~10-point RSI cooldown is complacency that gets tested, or a genuine all-clear.
  • Whether the bond complex's across-the-board weakness (all five death-crossed, below their 200-day, negative on the year) deepens further or finds a floor.
  • Whether COPX and GLD's push toward overbought exhausts or extends into the next cycle.
  • Whether FXI's bounce out of its own prior-cycle breakdown holds, or the chart remains structurally damaged below its 200-day.

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-21 close — market-pulse.
  • Prior cycle for comparison: 2026-08-14-market-pulse.
9 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.