Market Pulse Scan
Market Pulse Scan
The risk-on tape held into May Day with breadth confirming — SPY at $691 (RSI 66, +4.8% 7D), QQQ within 0.04% of all-time highs (RSI 71), MTUM finally cracked above 70 (RSI 73, +16% 30D), SMH +10.9% 7D and basically AT new highs (RSI 70). But the cross-currents from April are sharper now: gold has decisively broken (GLD RSI 44, -17% from ATH), nat gas dying (UNG RSI 36, -44% from ATH), and the homebuilders quietly rolled (ITB death cross, -19.6% from ATH). Vol products went lower still — VXX -15.9% 7D, VIXY -8.7% — the market has fully exited fear pricing.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟠 BROAD RISK-ON, BREADTH CONFIRMED, COMPLACENCY DEEPENING — Equities firm across cap and style, EM ripping, momentum >70, vol crushed. Gold/nat gas/homebuilder breaks are the only meaningful non-confirmations. |
| Leaders | MTUM (RSI 73↑, +16% 30D), SMH (+10.9% 7D, RSI 70, near ATH), EEM (+13.3% 30D), IWM (+11.1% 30D, near ATH), AIQ proxy via QQQ (RSI 71), XLI (+4.7% 7D), XLB (+6.1% 30D, RSI 66) |
| Laggards | UNG (RSI 36↓, -44% from ATH), VXX (RSI 39, -16% 7D), GLD (RSI 44, -17% from ATH), XLE (RSI 39, -5.5% 7D), ITB (RSI 46, -19.6% from ATH, death cross), XLP (RSI 43) |
| Key insight | This is a "no-fear, no-defense" tape. Vol broken, gold broken, staples broken, treasuries flat. Risk assets are pricing total resolution of every macro overhang at once. The single dissenting signal is the homebuilder crack (ITB death cross, -19.6% from ATH) — rates haven't actually eased for housing even as risk assets celebrate. |
Indices
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $690.97 | +4.8% | +3.6% | +0.4% | 66.1 | +4.7% | strong-up | 🟠 -2.7% from ATH, golden cross intact |
| QQQ | $637.40 | +3.9% | +6.3% | +2.7% | 70.8 ↑ | +7.5% | strong-up | 🟠 0.04% from ATH — RSI 71, technically extended |
| DIA | $495.02 | +1.1% | +6.5% | +0.6% | 63.0 | +1.7% | strong-up | 🟠 Dow grinding higher, -2.0% from ATH |
| IWM | $279.28 | +0.8% | +11.1% | +6.7% | 67.4 | +3.5% | strong-up | 🟠 Small caps -0.2% from ATH, +13% above SMA200 |
| VTI | $338.67 | +3.1% | +3.1% | -0.4% | 63.7 | +4.2% | strong-up | 🟠 Total market participating |
Indices commentary: Every major index is within 3% of an all-time high with RSI 63-71. QQQ at 0.04% from ATH is the most-stretched read. IWM joining the party (small caps catching up after lagging all year) is the "broadening rally" tell — historically a healthy late-stage signature, but it leaves no real index laggard to rotate into.
Sectors (All 11 XL\*)
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | $145.61 | +4.4% | +5.1% | +0.8% | 65.1 | +6.3% | strong-up | 🟠 Tech leading sector tape |
| XLF | $51.66 | +1.7% | +5.3% | -4.1% | 62.4 | +4.3% | weak-up | 🟡 Recovering, death cross still in |
| XLE | $55.81 | -5.5% | -3.0% | +16.9% | 38.9 ↓ | -5.9% | weak-down | 🔴 Energy retracing 3M strength — RSI 39 |
| XLV | $147.97 | +0.3% | -1.6% | -5.9% | 47.7 | +0.9% | weak-down | 🟡 Healthcare flat — no defensive bid |
| XLI | $172.73 | +4.7% | +4.3% | +5.5% | 61.7 | +4.8% | strong-up | 🟠 Industrials confirming infrastructure trade |
| XLU | $46.39 | +1.2% | -1.2% | +8.2% | 53.7 | +0.8% | strong-up | 🟡 Utilities flat 30D — power thesis priced 3M |
| XLP | $81.55 | +0.05% | -3.5% | -0.3% | 42.7 | -0.6% | weak-down | 🟡 Staples weakest — defensive rotation absent |
| XLY | $113.92 | +3.8% | +1.7% | -6.6% | 56.9 | +3.7% | weak-up | 🟡 Consumer disc bouncing, death cross |
| XLB | $52.19 | +3.7% | +6.1% | +7.5% | 65.6 | +5.2% | strong-up | 🟠 Materials breakout — copper + global infra |
| XLRE | $43.02 | +2.4% | +1.7% | +4.7% | 65.4 | +3.9% | strong-up | 🟠 REITs strong — data center bid intact |
| XLC | $114.82 | +1.7% | -0.1% | -1.3% | 57.3 | +2.5% | strong-up | 🟡 Comm services flat — Mag7 mixed |
Sector commentary: Eight of eleven sectors strong-up or weak-up; only XLE, XLV, XLP weak-down. Materials (XLB) above-SMA200 by 13%, real estate (XLRE) RSI 65 — the "AI-physical" trade has soaked into more sectors than usual. Note XLF still carries a death cross despite a 30D recovery — the 50/200 hasn't crossed yet, so financials are technically a "watch and confirm" not a clean breakout.
International
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFA | $102.10 | +0.9% | +4.2% | +0.7% | 54.7 | +0.2% | strong-up | 🟡 Developed markets pausing |
| EEM | $64.13 | +0.9% | +13.3% | +8.2% | 63.5 | +3.5% | strong-up | 🟠 EM ripping — dollar weakness + commodity lift |
| VWO | $57.18 | +4.7% | +3.9% | +2.0% | 62.7 | +5.2% | strong-up | 🟠 EM ETF confirming rotation |
| FXI | $36.81 | +0.2% | +3.5% | -6.0% | 52.9 | +0.5% | weak-up | 🟡 China death cross + tariff overhang |
| EWJ | $88.30 | +2.5% | +3.5% | +2.8% | 53.8 | +0.3% | strong-up | 🟡 Japan flat near SMA20 |
International commentary: EM remains the cleanest momentum trade outside US tech — EEM +13.3% 30D with RSI 63 and 16% above SMA200. FXI continues to underperform its EM peers (death cross, -12.4% from ATH) which means the EM bid is despite China weakness, not because of it. India and broader EM ex-China are doing the work.
Bonds
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | $86.75 | -0.3% | -0.1% | -0.7% | 49.2 | +0.4% | weak-down | 🟡 Long bonds flat — no flight to safety |
| IEF | $94.74 | -0.5% | -0.6% | -0.1% | 41.2 | -0.7% | down | 🟡 Intermediate bonds drifting lower, RSI 41 |
| HYG | $80.06 | -0.05% | +0.6% | +0.1% | 49.6 | -0.3% | strong-up | 🟠 High yield holding — credit confirms risk-on |
| LQD | $108.60 | -0.7% | -0.5% | -0.6% | 42.5 | -0.8% | down | 🟡 IG credit slowly leaking |
| BND | $73.36 | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.1% | 42.7 | -0.5% | weak-down | 🟡 Broad bonds quiet |
Bonds commentary: The bond complex is the silent observer here. TLT/IEF/LQD/BND all RSI 41-49 with mild bleed. Crucially, HYG (high-yield credit) is firm — credit markets are NOT discounting risk even as duration drifts. This is the pure "risk-on but rates aren't falling" combination — bullish for equities short-term, but the housing data (see below) suggests rates haven't actually eased for the real economy.
Commodities
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | $423.18 | -2.4% | -1.5% | -0.9% | 43.7 | -2.3% | weak-down | 🔴 Gold cracked — -17% from ATH, below SMA20+50 |
| SLV | $68.28 | +4.7% | -6.8% | -19.3% | 48.5 | +3.0% | weak-down | 🟡 Silver bouncing 7D after 3M wreck |
| USO | $124.50 | -10.0% | +8.2% | +71.5% | 55.2 | +0.2% | strong-up | 🟡 Oil parabolic 3M, digesting 7D — geopolitical premium fading |
| COPX | $79.05 | -4.0% | +2.9% | -7.2% | 45.7 | -3.9% | weak-down | 🟡 Copper miners pulling back |
| UNG | $10.68 | -5.4% | -12.5% | +4.3% | 36.1 ↓ | -8.7% | strong-down | 🔴 Nat gas death cross, -44% from ATH |
Commodities commentary: Gold's break is the standout dissent on this dashboard. -17% from ATH, RSI 44, below SMA20 and SMA50 — three weeks ago this was the geopolitical-premium chart, and now it's broken. Either macro fear has fully unwound (consistent with VXX collapse) or gold is the leading indicator and equities haven't priced what gold is pricing. USO is the inverse story: still +71% 3M, but -10% 7D as the oil premium fades. Watch USO + GLD together — they tell the same "geopolitics resolved" story right now.
Volatility
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIXY | $28.62 | -8.7% | -8.7% | +9.0% | 40.9 ↓ | -13.5% | strong-down | 🔴 Vol crushed — death cross |
| VXX | $28.86 | -15.9% | -11.1% | +6.4% | 39.2 ↓ | -15.2% | strong-down | 🔴 -64% from 52wk high — total complacency |
Volatility commentary: VXX -64% from its 52-week high. There is no fear bid in this market. The 3M reading on both products is still positive (~+8% 3M) which means a brief February vol spike happened, was sold, and we have erased every penny. This is the textbook "the only way is up… until it isn't" tape. Hedging is cheap right now, which doesn't mean it's wrong to buy.
Factors
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VUG | $467.36 | +3.8% | +2.7% | -3.6% | 62.5 | +4.9% | weak-up | 🟡 Growth recovering, death cross still in |
| VTV | $202.61 | +1.9% | +2.5% | +3.1% | 61.4 | +2.8% | strong-up | 🟠 Value firm, golden cross |
| MTUM | $285.09 | +1.7% | +16.0% | +10.4% | 72.7 ↑ | +5.3% | strong-up | 🔴 Momentum extended — RSI 73, near ATH |
| QUAL | $204.37 | +2.4% | +4.0% | +0.7% | 65.6 | +4.9% | strong-up | 🟠 Quality strong, near ATH |
| RSP | $198.83 | +1.6% | +2.4% | +0.5% | 59.6 | +2.9% | strong-up | 🟡 Equal-weight participating |
| SMH | $443.34 | +10.9% | +12.6% | +14.2% | 69.6 | +11.3% | strong-up | 🟠 Semis at ATH (-0.07%), RSI 70 |
| XBI | $132.05 | -0.3% | +6.6% | +4.1% | 61.3 | +5.4% | strong-up | 🟠 Biotech bouncing, golden cross |
Factor commentary: MTUM RSI 73 is the most-stretched single number on this dashboard — when momentum-as-factor crosses 70 it usually marks a 1-2 week pause minimum. SMH at 52-week high with RSI 70 is the same signal one layer down. VUG (growth) still carries a death cross even with RSI 62 — a recovering growth tape, not a confirmed breakout. Equal-weight (RSP) lagging cap-weighted (SPY) is consistent with mega-cap leadership.
Housing
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XHB | $105.53 | +5.8% | +4.1% | -7.1% | 56.7 | +5.8% | strong-down | 🟡 Builders bouncing 7D, death cross still in |
| ITB | $94.84 | -4.2% | +5.1% | -7.5% | 46.3 | -1.4% | strong-down | 🔴 ITB death cross, -19.6% from ATH |
Housing commentary: Housing is the cleanest macro dissent on this dashboard. ITB -19.6% from ATH with a death cross says rates haven't actually eased for the housing economy even as risk assets celebrate. XHB bounced 7D but the 3M tape is still -7%. If you believe equities are pricing rate cuts that bonds and housing aren't validating, this is your evidence.
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI <25)
EMPTY. Nothing capitulating in this tape.
Oversold (RSI 25-40) — the dissent layer
Neutral/Strong (RSI 40+)
Everything else — the long list. Most of the dashboard is RSI 53-73.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry Zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| GLD | $400-420 | If gold cracks toward $400 with VIX still crushed, contrarian "fear is mispriced" trade |
| ITB | $85-92 | Builder capitulation — wait for RSI<35; rate cuts must validate before buy |
| XLE | $52-55 | Energy 3M-still-strong with 7D pullback — wait for RSI 30 + USO stabilization |
| QQQ | $580-600 | Pullback target if RSI cools from 71. -7% from current. |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTUM | 🔴 Overbought | ⚠️ Avoid chase | RSI 73, 30D +16%; let it pause |
| SMH | 🟠 Near ATH | 🔒 Hold | RSI 70, semis at highs — trim, don't add |
| QQQ | 🟠 ATH | 🔒 Hold | 0.04% from high, RSI 71 |
| EEM | 🟠 Strong | 📈 Accumulate on dips | EM rotation intact, RSI 63 |
| ITB | 🔴 Breakdown | ❌ Avoid | Death cross, -19.6% from ATH |
| UNG | 🔴 Falling | ❌ Don't catch | Structural decline, -44% from ATH |
| GLD | 🔴 Cracked | 🔍 Watch | Wait for $400 or capitulation, contrarian setup |
| VXX | 🔴 Crushed | 🔍 Watch | Cheap hedge — vol can only go up from here |
| XLP | 🟡 Weak | ⚠️ Avoid | No defensive rotation, RSI 43 |
| HYG | 🟠 Firm | 🔒 Hold | Credit confirms risk-on |
What Changed (vs Apr 28)
- The bifurcation deepened. Last scan flagged "broad risk-on, complacency deepening" with gold cracked. Three days later: gold same level, vol products fell another -16% on VXX, MTUM crossed 70 RSI from 66, SMH joined SMH 52-wk-high club.
- Housing emerged as the clearest dissent. ITB rolled over with RSI 46 and death cross, where Apr 28 it was less prominent on the dashboard.
- Bond complex weakened slightly. TLT/IEF/LQD all drifted lower; IEF RSI 41 from Apr 28's 47. Not a flight-to-safety bid; just slow drain.
- EM still leading. EEM +13.3% 30D vs Apr 28's +15.1% — slightly cooled but still the cleanest non-US trade.
- No new break-glass triggers. No perspective breached, no TACO event detected at the macro level. The dashboard is "extended but orderly" — exactly where Apr 28 left it, just more so.
What the Market is Telling Us
The simplest read: risk assets have priced total resolution of every macro overhang simultaneously — geopolitics (USO down, GLD broken), inflation (commodities mixed but not impulsing), recession (small caps at highs, credit firm), policy (vol crushed). The market is saying "everything is fine" with the loudest possible voice. MTUM at RSI 73, QQQ at 0.04% from ATH, VXX -64% from high — these are not the readings of a market that is hedging or hesitating.
The two cleanest dissents are gold and housing. Gold's -17% from ATH with RSI 44 says either (a) the geopolitical premium has fully unwound and gold is finding fair value, or (b) gold is the leading indicator and equities are about to be wrong. The honest answer is we don't know yet — but a market that's pricing both "no fear" AND "no flight to safety" AND "rates won't actually drop for housing" is internally inconsistent. Something has to give.
The actionable read for the week: this is a "trim into strength, don't chase" tape. SMH and QQQ at all-time highs are not adds. MTUM at RSI 73 is not an add. VXX at -64% from ATH is mathematically the cheapest hedge you can buy this year — even if the tape grinds higher another month, the asymmetry is in your favor on protection. Watch ITB for the housing capitulation low; that's where rate-cut credibility actually gets tested, not in equities.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.