AI Power Bottleneck — Watts Per Rack + Generation-Side

perspective

AI Power Bottleneck — Watts Per Rack + Generation-Side

status active priority high thesis tickers 22 scan-mentioned tickers 307 events 123 latest

You can order 100,000 GPUs in 6 months; you cannot add 500MW to the grid in 6 months. AI capex is gated by electricity generation, not silicon. Aschenbrenner Q4 2025 13F watts-per-rack frame; NuttyCLD Mar 30 – May 1 series extended into delivery-side sub-thesis (forked to ai-power-delivery). Cohort working hard: BE +89% 30D RSI 66; CRWV/CORZ/IREN/APLD/HUT all +40-69% 30D; EQT laggard (nat gas weak). UPDATE 2026-05-02: Crusoe CEO Lochmiller (operator-side) ratifies — explicit GE Vernova shareholder endorsement, gas turbine pricing 3x'd ($1M → ~$3M/MW), onsite gas-turbine generation is the unlocking layer (grid timelines too long), compute depreciation likely longer than 6 years (H100 spot pricing has risen since launch). See log.md for full chronology.

Showing 120 of 123 events.

Watch for: BE additional hyperscaler fuel cell deals, BTC-miner→AI conversion announcements, grid interconnection policy changes, Q1 2026 13F (Aschenbrenner adding/trimming?), NuScale/Oklo project announcements, EQT vs UNG nat gas tape, GE Vernova investor day numbers (cross-check gas turbine 3x pricing), gas turbine OEM order books (GEV/Siemens/MHI), AI infra cohort depreciation language on next earnings (5-6 year vs 8-10 year), NVDA Q1 FY27 earnings 2026-05-28 (power infra commentary), ARM positioning at Q2 13F (chip-IP royalty pricing-in cross-check), coal-retirement slowdown vs planned (ChurchillWw — partial soft-floor for IPP-merchant pricing if more coal stays online than planned)

physics-down3d agoas of
paradigm track record 83% · 2.5/3 verdicts physics-down · high confidence · small sample (n=3) AI Optical Supercycle: HITAI Power Bottleneck: HITGulf Infrastructure Strike: PARTIAL

The thesis basket — the 22 tickers this perspective actually tracks. Everything else it has touched is folded below.

BE $232.16 +8.0% 30d coming into play CRWV $106.00 +44.8% 30d coming into play CORZ $20.13 -3.9% 30d coming into play IREN $44.90 +33.5% 30d retreating APLD $31.18 +20.9% 30d retreating CIFR $18.50 +5.3% 30d coming into play EQT $53.01 +7.3% 30d coming into play SEI $65.97 +9.4% 30d coming into play GEV $1,079.00 +2.0% 30d coming into play CLSK $12.41 -4.8% 30d retreating RIOT $20.04 +9.8% 30d coming into play HUT $88.04 -3.7% 30d coming into play BTDR $9.39 -12.6% 30d retreating PSIX $39.50 +30.6% 30d retreating CEG $278.20 +10.2% 30d retreating VST $146.11 -6.0% 30d retreating TLN $356.92 -4.2% 30d retreating PWR $722.31 +14.9% 30d coming into play MYRG $340.78 -13.0% 30d coming into play MTZ $302.48 -8.2% 30d retreating POWL $218.73 -6.0% 30d coming into play BEP $34.44 +8.4% 30d in trend
Seen alongside in scans (26 shown of 286) — symbols that appear with this perspective, not the thesis basket
005930.KS $284,500.00 +11.6% 30d coming into play AAL $14.43 -3.7% 30d coming into play AAOI $154.89 +51.2% 30d coming into play AAPL $305.59 -8.4% 30d coming into play ABBV $250.33 -1.6% 30d in trend ACLS $144.11 +5.6% 30d coming into play ADBE $254.04 +7.1% 30d retreating AEHR $145.61 +79.7% 30d in trend ALAB $320.17 +5.5% 30d coming into play ALB $133.99 +10.9% 30d retreating ALMU $17.78 +21.8% 30d retreating AMAT $535.31 +1.1% 30d coming into play AMD $506.00 +2.1% 30d coming into play AMKR $61.30 -2.6% 30d coming into play AMZN $261.31 +5.7% 30d in trend AOSL $31.07 -0.6% 30d coming into play APD $300.86 +1.8% 30d coming into play ARM $271.43 +1.6% 30d coming into play ARQQ $24.35 +39.8% 30d coming into play ASHR $35.20 +4.7% 30d coming into play ASML $1,883.12 +7.9% 30d in trend ASPI $4.02 +3.6% 30d retreating ASTS $71.14 +23.1% 30d retreating ASX $39.91 +3.9% 30d coming into play ATI $231.78 +24.5% 30d in trend
Show all 286 ticker links
$000660.KS$005930.KS$AAL$AAOI$AAPL$ABBV$ACLS$ADBE$AEHR$ALAB$ALB$ALMU$AMAT$AMD$AMKR$AMZN$AOSL$APD$ARM$ARQQ$ASHR$ASML$ASPI$ASTS$ASX$ATI$AVGO$AXTI$BA$BABA$BAM$BAPR$BEAM$BEPC$BESI$BESIY$BIGB$BIP$BIPC$BITF$BJAN$BJUL$BKSY$BN$BOCT$BOTZ$BRUN$BST$BSTZ$BTC$BUFR$BW$BWXT$BX$CAMT$CAT$CBRS$CCJ$CGEH$CGNX$CHAT$CIEN$CLF$CMI$COHR$COP$COPX$CRCL$CRDO$CRL$CRM$CROX$CRS$CRWD$CVX$DAL$DD$DELL$DGXX$DHR$DIA$DIVO$DNN$DPZ$DRAM$DUK$ECHO$EME$ENTG$ETN$EWJ$EWT$EWY$FBTC$FLNC$FLY$FN$FORM$FTNT$FTRE$FXI$GBTC$GD$GE$GLD$GLW$GLXY$GOOGL$GSAT$HAL$HEI$HIMS$HON$HONA$HOOD$HPE$HUBB$HUMN$HWM$IBIT$ICHR$IEF$IFNNY$INTC$IONQ$IQV$IRDM$ISRG$ITRI$IWM$JBL$JEPI$JEPQ$JETS$KGS$KLAC$KLIC$KMI$KRC$KTOS$KWEB$KYMR$LAAC$LAC$LASR$LBRT$LDOS$LEU$LHX$LIN$LIT$LITE$LMT$LPK.DE$LPTH$LRCX$LULU$LUNR$LWLG$MAGS$MARA$MCHP$MEDP$META$MOG.A$MP$MPWR$MRNA$MRVL$MSFT$MSTR$MSTU$MSTX$MSTY$MTSI$MTUM$MU$MXL$NBIS$NEE$NKE$NLR$NNE$NOC$NOK$NOW$NUKZ$NVDA$NVDL$NVDY$NVTS$OIH$OKLO$OKTA$ONTO$OPTX$ORCL$PANW$PAPR$PCG$PDI$PJAN$PJUL$PL$PLL$PLTR$POCT$POWI$PRIM$PUMP$QLD$QQQ$QYLD$RDW$RKLB$RMBS$ROBO$RSP$RTX$SAIC$SBUX$SGML$SLB$SLV$SMCI$SMH$SMR$SMTC$SNDK$SOXL$SPCX$SPY$SQM$STM$STX$SWKS$TDG$TDY$TECL$TER$TLT$TMO$TQQQ$TSEM$TSLA$TSLL$TSLY$TSM$TWST$TXG$UEC$UNH$URA$URNM$USO$UUP$UUUU$VIAV$VICR$VIXY$VPG$VRT$VSAT$VTI$VTV$VUG$VXX$WDC$WGMI$WLAC$WULF$WYFI$XBI$XLB$XLC$XLE$XLF$XLI$XLK$XLP$XLRE$XLU$XLV$XLY$XOM$ZS
no live data (1) — unresolved, delisted, or non-US symbols
$000660.KS

Desk commentary

Authored analysis and challenge notes tied to AI Power Bottleneck — Watts Per Rack + Generation-Side.

1

The Thread

The thesis as it unfolds — by source type (the symbol grid above is the current state).

Recent Shifts

21

Signals

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Desk Moves

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Research

43

Captures

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Calendar & Lifecycle

36