US Energy Dominance — Blockade as Leverage (absorbed iran-war-oil)

perspective

US Energy Dominance — Blockade as Leverage (absorbed iran-war-oil)

active thesis

status monitoring priority critical thesis tickers 18 scan-mentioned tickers 156 events 45 latest

Camp 1 ('blockade as leverage, US benefits') is the trade that paid; Camp 2 ('nonlinear crisis, $200 oil') never fired and lives demoted in oil-200-scenario. Cleanest single expression remains the Canadian premium — ATH.TO +156.6% 1Y with +124% alpha vs SPY. Internal split inside US energy now confirmed: integrateds cooling (XOM/CVX weak-down RSI 42/47), independents holding (DVN/EOG/COP/OXY strong-up RSI 53-61, +21-30% 3M), services outperforming both (HAL/SLB/OIH RSI 65-72). RSI 72 OIH = late-cycle warning forming; trim signal if it stays >70 for another two weeks. The market paying the structural premium says oil-stays-elevated is consensus, not capitulation.

Watch for: USO range $110/$150 (currently $124.50, mid-channel), HAL/SLB/OIH late-cycle confirmation (2-3 more weeks of services > producers), Canadian premium persistence (ATH.TO/BTE.TO/TVE.TO 40-50% 3M / 150-200% 1Y), VXX > 25 (fear returning, currently $28.86), OPEC+ June meeting, COPX rotation (Theo Apr 16 — currently +11.2% 30D vs USO +8.2%), KWEB/FXI (China amplifier — EEM is the cleaner read) PROMOTE (→ book): a physical-energy leverage event (blockade/strike/embargo) WITH the complex confirming in tape — until then this is bench-with-levels, not an operated thesis. REFINING LEG (written 2026-07-26; the crack-spread expression two autopsies flagged — DK +42% ran unclaimed after the lane was adde...

macro3d agoas of
paradigm track record 83% · 2.5/3 verdicts macro · high confidence · small sample (n=3) US Energy Dominance: HITGold Crash: HITWar Ends Playbook: PARTIAL

The thesis basket — the 18 tickers this perspective actually tracks. Everything else it has touched is folded below.

USO $130.29 +5.1% 30d coming into play XOM $161.46 +9.6% 30d coming into play CVX $202.70 +8.2% 30d coming into play COP $127.56 +11.2% 30d coming into play DVN $47.57 +8.5% 30d coming into play EOG $146.15 +4.5% 30d coming into play OXY $59.04 +7.6% 30d coming into play HAL $34.73 -1.4% 30d coming into play SLB $53.86 +14.6% 30d in trend OIH $426.60 +12.6% 30d in trend ATH.TO $10.92 +1.5% 30d coming into play WCP.TO $17.53 +10.0% 30d coming into play BTE.TO $6.32 +7.5% 30d coming into play TVE.TO $13.54 +2.5% 30d coming into play XLE $62.58 +8.5% 30d coming into play XOP $183.35 +7.7% 30d coming into play GLD $405.49 +10.1% 30d coming into play COPX $87.34 +19.1% 30d in trend
Seen alongside in scans (30 shown of 138) — symbols that appear with this perspective, not the thesis basket
AAL $14.43 -3.7% 30d coming into play AAOI $154.89 +51.2% 30d coming into play AAPL $305.59 -8.4% 30d coming into play ACGL $97.81 -3.5% 30d in trend AEHR $145.61 +79.7% 30d in trend ALAB $320.17 +5.5% 30d coming into play AMAT $535.31 +1.1% 30d coming into play AMD $506.00 +2.1% 30d coming into play AMKR $61.30 -2.6% 30d coming into play AMZN $261.31 +5.7% 30d in trend APD $300.86 +1.8% 30d coming into play ARM $271.43 +1.6% 30d coming into play ASHR $35.20 +4.7% 30d coming into play ASML $1,883.12 +7.9% 30d in trend ASX $39.91 +3.9% 30d coming into play AVGO $392.43 +5.8% 30d coming into play BABA $124.71 +8.5% 30d retreating BE $232.16 +8.0% 30d coming into play BEAM $27.10 -1.6% 30d coming into play BKR $64.90 +16.4% 30d in trend BNO $51.97 +6.7% 30d coming into play BTC-USD $64,388.99 -0.5% 30d retreating CEG $278.20 +10.2% 30d retreating CF $117.78 -3.0% 30d coming into play CLF $12.31 +32.6% 30d coming into play CLMT $48.35 +12.9% 30d in trend CLSK $12.41 -4.8% 30d retreating COHR $351.22 +26.5% 30d coming into play CRCL $74.59 +23.4% 30d retreating CRDO $282.82 +39.5% 30d coming into play
Show all 138 ticker links
$AAL$AAOI$AAPL$ACGL$AEHR$ALAB$AMAT$AMD$AMKR$AMZN$APD$ARM$ASHR$ASML$ASX$AVGO$BABA$BE$BEAM$BKR$BNO$BTC-USD$CEG$CF$CLF$CLMT$CLSK$COHR$CRCL$CRDO$CROX$CRWD$DAL$DD$DHR$DHT$DIA$DK$DPZ$DRAM$EE$ENTG$ETN$FCX$FLR$FN$FRO$FTNT$FXI$GD$GDX$GE$GEV$GOOGL$GTLS$HIMS$HOOD$HUBB$IBIT$ICLN$INSW$INTC$IQV$ITA$ITRI$IWM$JBL$JETS$KBR$KLAC$KWEB$KYMR$LEU$LHX$LITE$LMT$LPTH$LRCX$LULU$MARA$MEDP$META$MOG.A$MP$MPC$MRNA$MRVL$MSFT$MSTR$MTUM$MU$NBIS$NEE$NET$NKE$NOC$NVDA$OKTA$PANW$PLTR$POWL$PPA$PSX$QQQ$RIOT$RKLB$RSP$RTX$SBUX$SLV$SMTC$SNDK$SPY$STNG$STX$TAN$TECK$TER$TLT$TMO$TSEM$TSLA$TSM$TWST$UNG$UUP$VIXY$VLO$VPG$VTI$VTV$WDC$XBI$XLC$XLI$XLK$XLU$ZS

Desk commentary

Authored analysis and challenge notes tied to US Energy Dominance — Blockade as Leverage (absorbed iran-war-oil).

2

The Thread

The thesis as it unfolds — by source type (the symbol grid above is the current state).

Recent Shifts

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Research

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Captures

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Calendar & Lifecycle

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