strongest RSI in the upstream cohort (67.2) — hold above the 20-day (~$185.34) to stay constructive

Invalidation: loses the 50-day (~$182.75)

this is a signal to watch, not a trade — a reclaim of the 20-day (~$373.15) would be the first sign of the safe-haven bid this week's tape didn't produce

Invalidation: n/a — continued weakness alongside a weakening dollar (UUP) is the non-confirmation already in the data

not a trend-hold candidate yet — wait for a base and a reclaim of the 50-day (~$36.18) before treating any bounce as more than a dead-cat pop

Invalidation: n/a — the condition to flip constructive is the 50-day reclaim above; a fresh 52-week low confirms the derate instead

RSI is a hair under overbought (69.7) — wait for a pullback to the 20-day (~$200.76) rather than chasing the extended print

Invalidation: loses the 50-day (~$185.74), turning the refining leg's leadership into a rollover

the -5.5% weekly pullback holds above the 20-day (~$121.96) — a normal pullback inside a strong-up trend, not a reversal

Invalidation: closes back below the 20-day and takes out the $126.55 support shelf

same setup as PSX — a pullback to the 20-day (~$295.63); note this row is one session stale (2026-07-30 close), confirm Friday's print before acting

Invalidation: loses the 50-day (~$269.30)

RSI 83 on 2.7x volume, +165% in a year — parabolic-chaser material, not trend-hold; reopen only on a first pullback that holds $36.99 (20-day) with volume drying up

Invalidation: n/a — not owned; wrong if $36.99 holds on the first test and the trend resumes

reopen if it builds a multi-week base above the 20-day ($52.58) and resumes — a small refiner +53% in 30 days and +20% over its own 20-day is the gap, not the setup

Invalidation: n/a — not owned; the pass is wrong (and will be scored wrong) if that base forms and the resumption runs without us

the lane's quality large-cap; interest begins on the first pullback that HOLDS the 20-day ($272.00) after the Aug 4 print validates Q2 margins — at +15% above the 20-day, buying today buys the gap

Invalidation: a close below the 50-day ($261.52) breaks the momentum regime and the lane read resets

the diversified laggard of the three (+70% on the year, midstream/chem mix dilutes the crack exposure); first 20-day hold ($181.86) after the Aug 5 print

Invalidation: a close below the 50-day ($178.65) — barely below the 20-day, so this one resolves fast

best 12-month tape of the pure refiners (+117%); same frame — first 20-day hold ($271.29) after the Jul 30 print, the earliest verification event in the lane

Invalidation: a close below the 50-day ($257.97) breaks the momentum regime