raw scan snapshot Feb 3, 2026 — prices as of scan date, not live 96 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-05-01-market-pulse ported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-02-03-market-pulse.md scan slugmarket-pulse source typescan-archive
Is the market top-heavy? Is AI/NVIDIA the only thing holding it up?
Quick Snapshot Signal Reading Overall 🟡 Mixed - SPY flat YTD, tech (XLK) down -6%, but small caps + energy running Key insight Market breadth is NARROW. Tech down, industrials/energy up. Classic rotation. User concern "Top heavy, AI/NVIDIA holding it up" - DATA CONFIRMS: QQQ -2% vs IWM +7% (3M)
The Big Question: Is the Market Top-Heavy? Evidence FOR "top-heavy":
Signal Data Tech (XLK) -6% in 3M, -7% from 52wk high QQQ vs SPY QQQ -2% vs SPY +1% over 3M - tech underperforming XLK vs XLI Tech -6% vs Industrials +10% over 3M
Evidence AGAINST "top-heavy":
Signal Data Small caps (IWM) +7% in 3M - breadth expanding Industrials (XLI) +10% in 3M, near 52wk high Energy (XLE) +17% in 3M, RSI 79 (overbought but running)
Verdict: Market is rotating OUT of tech INTO value/cyclicals. Not "top-heavy" - just tech-heavy portfolios are hurting.
Legend
RSI ↓ = Oversold (<30) - potential buying opportunityRSI ↑ = Overbought (>70) - FOMO warning, may pullback52wkHi = % from 52-week high (how far below peak)
Major US Indices ETF Name Price 1D 7D 30D 3M 52wkHi RSI Status SPY S&P 500 $690.98 -1% +0% +1% +1% -1% 47 🟡 Flat QQQ Nasdaq-100 $617.87 -1% -1% -0% -2% -3% 44 🔴 Lagging DIA Dow Jones $493.70 -0% +1% +1% +5% -1% 53 🟢 Steady IWM Russell 2000 $262.55 -0% -1% +4% +7% -3% 52 🟢 Leading VTI Total Market $340.49 -1% -0% +1% +2% -1% 46 🟡 Flat
Index Divergence: Small caps (IWM ) up +7% while tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ ) down -2% over 3 months. Classic rotation signal.
Sector Rotation Tracker (All 11 S&P Sectors) Complete Sector Data # ETF Sector Price 1D 7D 30D 3M 52wkHi RSI Flow 1 XLB Materials $51.06 +2% -0% +10% +21% -0% 71 ↑ 🟢 IN 2 XLE Energy $51.15 +2% +2% +9% +17% -1% 79 ↑ 🟢 IN 3 XLP Staples $85.96 +1% +3% +11% +15% -0% 80 ↑ 🟢 IN 4 XLI Industrials $169.11 +1% +2% +6% +10% -0% 64 🟢 IN 5 XLV Healthcare $155.56 -1% -1% +0% +8% -3% 46 🟡 HOLD 6 XLC Communication $118.46 -1% +2% +1% +5% -2% 56 🟡 HOLD 7 XLF Financials $53.72 -0% +2% -4% +3% -5% 45 🟡 HOLD 8 XLY Discretionary $121.49 -1% -0% +1% +1% -3% 40 🟡 HOLD 9 XLRE Real Estate $40.64 -1% -1% +1% - -7% 47 🟡 HOLD 10 XLU Utilities $43.26 +0% -1% +1% -2% -8% 55 🔴 OUT 11 XLK Technology $141.99 -2% -2% -2% -6% -7% 41 🔴 OUT
Sector Rankings by Timeframe Rank 1D Best 7D Best 30D Best 3M Best 1 XLB +2% XLP +3% XLP +11% XLB +21% 2 XLE +2% XLC +2% XLB +10% XLE +17% 3 XLP +1% XLE +2% XLE +9% XLP +15% 4 XLI +1% XLF +2% XLI +6% XLI +10% 5 XLU +0% XLI +2% XLRE +1% XLV +8% ... ... ... ... ... 10 XLK -2% XLU -1% XLF -4% XLU -2% 11 - XLK -2% XLK -2% XLK -6%
Sector Heat Map (3M Performance) Materials ████████████████████ XLB +21% 🔥 HOT
Energy █████████████████░░░ XLE +17% 🔥 HOT
Staples ███████████████░░░░░ XLP +15% 🔥 HOT
Industrials ██████████░░░░░░░░░░ XLI +10% 🟢 STRONG
Healthcare ████████░░░░░░░░░░░░ XLV +8% 🟢 SOLID
Communication █████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ XLC +5% 🟡 OK
Financials ███░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ XLF +3% 🟡 FLAT
Discretionary █░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ XLY +1% 🟡 FLAT
Real Estate █░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ XLRE ~0% 🟡 FLAT
Utilities ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ XLU -2% ⚪ WEAK
Technology ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ XLK -6% 🔴 LAGGING
Sector Rotation Cycle Classic economic cycle rotation pattern:
EARLY CYCLE MID CYCLE LATE CYCLE RECESSION
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Leaders: Financials (XLF) Technology (XLK) Energy (XLE) Staples (XLP)
Discretionary (XLY) Industrials (XLI) Materials (XLB) Healthcare (XLV)
Real Estate (XLRE) Communication (XLC) Staples (XLP) Utilities (XLU)
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
▲
WE ARE HERE?
Current Signal: Late cycle rotation - Energy, Materials, Staples leading while Tech lags. This pattern historically precedes economic slowdown.
Money Flow Summary Flow Sectors Signal 🟢 INFLOWS XLB, XLE, XLP, XLI Cyclicals + Defensives = late cycle 🟡 NEUTRAL XLV, XLC, XLF, XLY, XLRE Waiting/consolidating 🔴 OUTFLOWS XLK, XLU Tech rotation, rate-sensitive hurt
Sector Overbought/Oversold Alert Status Sector RSI Signal 🔴 OVERBOUGHT XLP Staples 80 Crowded defensive trade 🔴 OVERBOUGHT XLE Energy 79 Extended, pullback likely 🔴 OVERBOUGHT XLB Materials 71 Infrastructure trade hot 🟢 OVERSOLD XLK Tech 41 Approaching entry zone? 🟢 OVERSOLD XLY Discretionary 40 Consumer weak
Commodities & Safe Havens ETF Asset Price 1D 7D 30D 3M RSI Status GLD Gold $427.58 -2% -5% +5% +16% 52 🟢 Pullback SLV Silver $75.38 -17% -26% +17% +71% 52 🔴 Volatile USO Oil $79.54 -0% +8% +15% +10% 75 ↑ 🔴 Overbought COPX Copper $84.74 -3% -7% +∞% +41% 61 🟢 Pullback
Commodity Signal: Gold +16%, Copper +41% in 3M. Inflationary signal? Or just catch-up trade?
Volatility & Fear ETF Indicator Price 1D 7D 30D 3M RSI Status VIXY VIX Futures $26.62 +1% +5% +4% -19% 59 🟢 Calm
Fear Level: Low. VIXY down -19% over 3M despite market choppiness. Complacency?
Fixed Income ETF Bond Type Price 1D 7D 30D 3M RSI Status TLT Long-Term Treasury $87.16 -0% -1% -0% -2% 43 🟡 Flat
Bond Signal: TLT flat/down. No flight to safety. Risk appetite intact.
Specialty Sectors ETF Sector Price 1D 7D 30D 3M RSI Status SMH Semiconductors $408.05 +1% +1% +8% +12% 61 🟢 Running XBI Biotech $127.36 +2% -2% +6% +16% 57 🟢 Running
Semis vs Tech: Interesting - SMH +12% while XLK -6%. Semis decoupling from broader tech.
Market Rotation Analysis Where Money is FLOWING TO (3M Leaders) Sector 3M Return Signal Materials (XLB) +21% Infrastructure/inflation play Energy (XLE) +17% Oil prices, geopolitics Biotech (XBI) +16% Sector rotation, M&A speculation Gold (GLD) +16% Inflation hedge, safe haven Staples (XLP) +15% Defensive rotation Semis (SMH) +12% AI demand, but decoupled from tech Industrials (XLI) +10% Economic strength signal
Where Money is FLOWING FROM (3M Laggards) Sector 3M Return Signal Technology (XLK) -6% Valuation concerns, profit-taking Nasdaq (QQQ) -2% Same as above Utilities (XLU) -2% Risk-on rotation
Key Observations 1. The "Top Heavy" Question - ANSWERED Your instinct is correct but incomplete:
YES : Tech (XLK ) is -6% and dragging QQQ BUT : Small caps (IWM +7%) and cyclicals (XLI +10%) are leadingVERDICT : Not top-heavy; it's a healthy rotation OUT of growth INTO value
2. AI/NVIDIA Carrying the Market?
SMH (semis) +12% vs XLK (tech) -6%This means: AI chips running, but broader tech isn't
NVIDIA specifically is likely the ONLY thing keeping QQQ from being worse
3. What This Means for Your Portfolio If You Own Action Heavy tech/AI 🔴 Underperforming the market Small caps 🟢 Outperforming Energy/Materials 🟢 Riding the wave Bonds 🟡 Flat, no help
4. Warning Signs Signal Reading XLE RSI 79 Energy overbought - may pullback XLP RSI 80 Staples overbought - defensive play crowded XLB RSI 71 Materials extended Tech still falling XLK -6% and not done
The Gold Key Discoveries Discovery Implication QQQ -2% vs IWM +7% Classic rotation, not crash XLK -6% in 3M Tech is the problem, not the market SMH +12% vs XLK -6% Semis decoupled - AI demand real VIXY -19% in 3M No fear despite rotation XLP, XLE, XLB overbought Rotation trade getting crowded
Open Questions
Is this rotation sustainable or will tech bounce?
When does energy (XLE RSI 79) pull back?
Is the staples (XLP ) move a defensive warning?
Are bond yields about to spike (TLT still flat)?
Verdict The market isn't top-heavy. Your tech-heavy portfolio is.
What You See What's Actually Happening "Market looks weird" Rotation out of growth "AI/NVIDIA holding it up" True - but cyclicals are leading "Top heavy" No - breadth is expanding (IWM +7%)
Your Next Steps:
Check your tech exposure - likely overweight
Consider trimming overbought sectors (XLE , XLP , XLB )
Watch for tech bounce entry (XLK -7% from high)
Don't panic - this is rotation, not collapse
Commands cd stonks
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
Next update: Weekly or on major move (>3% in any index)
How to Use This Sector Tracker Weekly Check-In
Run the desk's own tooling to refresh data
Check which sectors moved in rankings
Look for RSI extremes (>70 or <30)
Compare 30D vs 3M - is momentum shifting?
What to Watch For Signal Meaning Action Sector goes from HOLD → IN Money flowing in Research stocks in that sector Sector goes from IN → OUT Money leaving Don't chase, take profits RSI > 70 on leaders Overbought Wait for pullback to buy RSI < 30 on laggards Oversold Potential mean reversion play Tech (XLK) starts outperforming Risk-on returning Growth stocks may lead again
Rotation Playbook If You See This... Then... XLK rising from bottom Add growth exposure XLE/XLB falling from top Take profits, trim cyclicals XLP + XLV leading Defensive posture, reduce risk IWM > QQQ (like now) Breadth expanding, healthy QQQ > IWM Tech leading, narrow market
All 11 S&P Sectors Reference ETF Sector Top Holdings What It Tracks XLK Technology AAPL, MSFT, NVDA Big Tech, Software XLF Financials BRK.B, JPM, V Banks, Insurance XLE Energy XOM, CVX Oil & Gas XLV Healthcare LLY, UNH, JNJ Pharma, Biotech, Insurance XLI Industrials CAT, UNP, RTX Manufacturing, Defense XLU Utilities NEE, SO, DUK Power, Electric XLP Staples PG, COST, WMT Consumer Essentials XLY Discretionary AMZN, TSLA, HD Consumer Spending XLB Materials LIN, SHW, FCX Chemicals, Mining XLRE Real Estate PLD, AMT, EQIX REITs XLC Communication META, GOOGL, NFLX Media, Telecom
Watchlist Used {
"symbols": ["SPY", "QQQ", "DIA", "IWM", "VTI", "XLK", "XLF", "XLE", "XLV", "XLI", "XLU", "XLP", "XLY", "XLB", "XLRE", "XLC", "GLD", "SLV", "USO", "COPX", "VIXY", "TLT", "SMH", "XBI"],
"description": "Comprehensive market pulse - indices, all 11 sectors, commodities, volatility"
}