Source

BLS CPI for August 2026, released 2026-09-11: all items +0.4 percent m/m and +3.4 percent y/y; core +0.3 percent and +2.4 percent; food +0.1 percent m/m and +2.7 percent y/y; food at home 0.0 percent m/m and +2.2 percent y/y; food away from home +3.4 percent y/y; energy +2.1 percent m/m and +16.3 percent y/y; gasoline +3.9 percent m/m and +27.4 percent y/y; fuel oil +52.0 percent y/y; airline fares +23.4 percent y/y; transportation services +2.4 percent y/y; motor vehicle insurance -0.8 percent m/m. The US consumer receipt for the energy-to-hardship chain as of August: the energy leg has fully arrived (fuel oil, gasoline, airfares), the food leg has NOT yet (groceries flat on the month, 2.2 percent on the year, decelerating from 2.7) — the transmission to food is the open question, and September's print (October 14 release) is the next dated test. The Fed HIKED a quarter point on 2026-09-16, its first hike since 2023, into a 3.4 percent headline (correction 2026-09-18: an earlier draft of this note said cut).

Takeaway

BLS CPI for August 2026, released 2026-09-11: all items +0.4 percent m/m and +3.4 percent y/y; core +0.3 percent and +2.4 percent; food +0.1 percent m/m and +2.7 percent y/y; food at home 0.0 percent m/m and +2.2 percent y/y; food away from home +3.4 percent y/y; energy +2.1 percent m/m and +16.3 percent y/y; gasoline +3.9 percent m/m and +27.4 percent y/y; fuel oil +52.0 percent y/y; airline fares +23.4 percent y/y; transportation services +2.4 percent y/y; motor vehicle insurance -0.8 percent m/m. The US consumer receipt for the energy-to-hardship chain as of August: the energy leg has fully arrived (fuel oil, gasoline, airfares), the food leg has NOT yet (groceries flat on the month, 2.2 percent on the year, decelerating from 2.7) — the transmission to food is the open question, and September's print (October 14 release) is the next dated test. The Fed HIKED a quarter point on 2026-09-16, its first hike since 2023, into a 3.4 percent headline (correction 2026-09-18: an earlier draft of this note said cut).