Broad risk-off selloff: energy and volatility are the only winners as Iran war/oil shock slams equities across the board.

• All five major indices below their SMA20 with RSI in the 40-46 range — not yet deeply oversold but clearly deteriorating. Golden crosses still intact, meaning long-term trend hasn't fully broken.
• QQQ leading the decline at -4.3% this week, confirming tech is the epicenter of the selloff. IWM (-6.4% 30D) underperforming, signaling small-cap fragility in risk-off environments.
• No capitulation yet — RSI 40-46 is "approaching oversold" but not there. Watch for a flush to RSI 30 before calling a bottom.

• XLE is the lone sector winner — energy ripping as oil crisis plays out. RSI 66.9 and +3.8% above SMA20. Don't chase here — getting extended.
• XLF and XLY have triggered death crosses — these are the structural breakdowns to watch. Financials underperforming in risk-off makes sense; consumer discretionary death cross signals consumer stress.
• XLI down -9.9% in 30 days — the worst sector performance after housing. Industrial weakness in a war-driven supply shock environment is a significant signal.
• XLU holding up relatively well (+1.2% this week) — defensive rotation beginning but not yet dominant. XLP also nearly flat on the week.

• International markets uniformly weak — no safe harbor offshore. EEM (-8.5% 30D) leading the decline among EM, likely hit by dollar strength and commodity price volatility.
• FXI (China) has a death cross — despite being the "least bad" performer (-3.4% 30D), the structural signal is bearish. China's relative resilience may reflect geopolitical repositioning, but the cross is a warning.
• Japan (-7.1% 30D) underperforming developed market peers — Yen dynamics and tech-heavy index composition amplifying the selloff.

• Bonds providing mild safe-haven support this week (TLT +0.9%, IEF +0.4%) but 30D performance still negative — war/inflation expectations keeping yields elevated.
• HYG credit spread not yet showing stress (-1.0% 30D) — corporate balance sheets intact, but watch for deterioration if equity selloff deepens.
• Classic risk-off playbook only partially engaged: bonds getting a bid on the week but 30D still negative, meaning the "flight to safety" is just beginning.

• USO is the story — oil +46% in 30 days, +13.6% this week alone. The Iran war is the driver. RSI 68.5 and 11.5% above SMA20 — overbought, but war premium can sustain.
• Gold/silver had a major capitulation in 30D (GLD -12.6%, SLV -16.9%) but are now recovering on the week (+2.4%, +1.8%). This is a classic "sell everything" deleveraging followed by flight-to-safety re-entry. Constructive for precious metals.
• Copper (-19.7% 30D) signaling global growth slowdown fears — a war-driven demand destruction read. COPX diverging hard from USO tells the story: energy scarcity premium vs. industrial demand collapse.
• UNG death cross — nat gas structurally broken even as oil surges. Different supply dynamics.

• VIX proxies up +24% in 30 days, +13% this week — volatility is spiking but RSI still only 56, suggesting fear has not yet reached extreme levels. Death crosses on both — structurally elevated vol environment.
• VIXY/VXX above their SMA20s — unusual. When vol ETFs trade above SMA20, market stress is sustained rather than episodic. Not a buy signal for equities yet.

• Growth (VUG) has a death cross — most significant factor signal. In a war/risk-off environment this is the last factor you want to hold.
• Value (VTV) outperforming growth on a relative basis (-5.1% vs -5.9% 30D) — classic risk-off rotation, but not outperforming in absolute terms. No factor is working.
• Momentum (MTUM) -5.3% this week alone — momentum strategies getting wrecked as leaders (energy/defense) are not yet in the index and prior leaders (tech/growth) are collapsing.
• Equal-weight RSP (-6.3% 30D) tracking cap-weight closely — no breadth divergence yet.

• Housing is the second most damaged sector — ITB -14% in 30D with a death cross. Higher oil/inflation feeding into rate expectations, killing the housing thesis. Rate-sensitive names breaking.
• XBI is the surprise relative strength story — biotech +0.4% in 30 days while everything else collapses. RSI 56 and +3.1% above SMA20. Defensive/M&A-driven demand. Watch closely.
• SMH semis down -7.1% this week, -6.8% in 30D — AI/chip demand concerns compounding the macro selloff.

• At what oil price does demand destruction outweigh supply premium? Watch COPX for the signal.
• When do bonds finally get the full safe-haven bid? TLT -3% 30D despite equity selloff is notable.
• Is XBI's resilience real or a delayed reaction?