Supply Chain Traces Scan
Supply Chain Traces Scan
MP, the sole name still tagged collapse last cycle, finally repaired to pullback — RSI climbing to 67.1 from 56.2 and its 30-day return flipping to +18.76% from -3.57% — clearing the collapse pocket to zero for the first time in recent cycles. But CRS lost its uptrend tag for a second time in three cycles, downgrading back to pullback after re-earning the tag just last scan. TDY also upgraded to uptrend. KMT is now the lowest RSI in the book at 40.4, the one name still losing ground.
Data as-of the 2026-08-14 close for the full 16-name book — no staleness this cycle, except AMVMF, one session behind at 2026-08-13. Prior scan: 2026-08-08-supply-chain-traces (data as-of the 2026-08-07 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 The collapse pocket cleared to zero as MP finally repaired, though CRS's uptrend tag proved fragile for a second time |
| Key insight | MP's RSI jump to 67.1 clears the book's last collapse tag, while CRS whipsaws between uptrend and pullback for the third time in three cycles |
What's Going On
The book's last remaining structural weak spot cleared this cycle. MP, the sole name still tagged collapse last scan, repaired to pullback as its RSI climbed to 67.1 from 56.2 — already the biggest single-name RSI jump in the book last cycle, and it kept climbing — and its 30-day return flipped from -3.57% to +18.76%. That clears the collapse pocket to zero for the first time in recent cycles. Against that clean repair, CRS is the one name that reversed structurally: after re-earning its uptrend tag just last scan following a first-cycle loss, it lost the tag again this cycle, downgrading back to pullback as RSI eased to 47.4 from 52.3 and its 30-day loss widened to -5.63% from -2.89% — the third regime flip for this name in three straight cycles (pullback → uptrend → pullback), a genuine whipsaw rather than a settling trend. TDY moved the other direction, upgrading from basing to uptrend, though its RSI itself eased to 59.1 from 68.6 even as its 30-day return held roughly flat at +8.9%. ATEYY extended its uptrend further, RSI climbing to 69.7 from 59.8 with a 30-day gain of +22.86%. TER posted the sharpest RSI gain in the book after MP, climbing to 60.6 from 52.2 with its 30-day return more than doubling to +22.41% from +7.89%, though its regime still reads pullback rather than uptrend. ELMT's RSI climbed to 67.5 from 58.1 with a 30-day gain of +25.55%, still tagged too-young given its short trading history. AMVMF is the one data caveat: its bar is one session behind at 2026-08-13, though it printed an unusually large relative volume spike (10.5x its average) on that stale print — a signal worth confirming once a current bar lands. KMT is now the lowest RSI in the book at 40.4 (was 42.5), the only name whose 30-day return got worse this cycle, widening to -9.61% from +0.06%.
What Changed Since 2026-08-08
- MP: regime upgraded collapse → pullback, clearing the pocket to zero; RSI 56.2 → 67.1; 30-day flipped from -3.57% to +18.76%.
- CRS: regime downgraded uptrend → pullback for the third flip in three cycles; RSI 52.3 → 47.4; 30-day widened to -5.63% (was -2.89%).
- TDY: regime upgraded basing → uptrend; RSI eased to 59.1 (was 68.6); 30-day held roughly flat at +8.9% (was +8.1%).
- TER: RSI 52.2 → 60.6; 30-day climbed to +22.41% (was +7.89%); regime still pullback despite the strength.
- ATEYY: RSI 59.8 → 69.7, regime held uptrend; 30-day climbed to +22.86% (was +16.49%).
- ELMT: RSI 58.1 → 67.5, regime still too-young; 30-day climbed to +25.55% (was +5.71%).
- ALM: RSI 50.4 → 55.8, regime held pullback; 30-day flipped to +7.71% (was -5.15%), continuing last cycle's repair.
- BESIY: RSI 46.6 → 53.2, thesis still intact; 30-day narrowed to -4.21% (was -8.49%).
- KLIC: RSI 41.1 → 51.3, thesis still intact-but-priced; 30-day narrowed to -7.75% (was -12.4%); no longer the lowest RSI in the book.
- AMKR: RSI 43.0 → 49.5, regime held pullback; 30-day narrowed to -12.79% (was -17.4%).
- ASX: RSI 49.2 → 54.7; 30-day narrowed to -2.9% (was -6.36%).
- KEYS: RSI 57.4 → 63.3, regime held uptrend; 30-day climbed to +10.88% (was +7.48%).
- WOLF: RSI 53.0 → 51.0, roughly flat; 30-day widened slightly to -9.43% (was -8.34%).
- SDVKY: RSI 51.6 → 47.8; 30-day widened to -6.11% (was -2.61%).
- AMVMF: RSI 52.3 → 49.0, roughly flat; 30-day narrowed slightly to -5.04% (was -6.37%); bar now one session stale at 2026-08-13, with an unusual 10.5x relative-volume spike on that print.
- KMT: RSI 42.5 → 40.4, now the lowest in the book; 30-day widened to -9.61% (was +0.06%), the one name losing ground this cycle.
How To Read The Board
Regime labels describe chart structure, not a buy/sell call. Clearing the collapse pocket to zero is a real structural milestone for this book, but CRS's third regime flip in three cycles is the more instructive story: a fresh print can lift or drop a tag as easily as it confirms one, and this name's chart hasn't found a stable read yet even as its underlying RSI has stayed in a fairly narrow band. TER and ELMT both show 30-day gains strong enough that their regime tags (pullback, too-young) look like they're lagging the price — worth checking whether the next cycle catches up, the way CAMT and MP eventually did. KMT dropping to the lowest RSI in the book while every other name in the pullback tier improved is worth tracking on its own.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs SMA20 | Trend | From 52wkHigh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATEYY | $231.50 | 69.7 | +12.02% | +22.86% | +18.2% | strong-up | -1.5% (regime: uptrend) |
| ELMT | $18.82 | 67.5 | +11.63% | +25.55% | +21.8% | neutral | -23.81% (regime: too-young) |
| MP | $58.74 | 67.1 | +14.93% | +18.76% | +24.3% | up | -44.48% (regime: pullback, upgraded from collapse) |
| KEYS | $357.82 | 63.3 | +4.94% | +10.88% | +9.2% | strong-up | -5.63% (regime: uptrend) |
| TER | $418.79 | 60.6 | +10.41% | +22.41% | +13.1% | strong-up | -14.17% |
| TDY | $679.67 | 59.1 | -1.68% | +8.9% | +2.2% | strong-up | -3.44% (regime: uptrend, upgraded from basing) |
| ALM | $15.09 | 55.8 | +6.42% | +7.71% | +13.0% | weak-down | -38.18% |
| ASX | $39.54 | 54.7 | +5.75% | -2.9% | +5.9% | strong-up | -12.66% |
| BESIY | $270.96 | 53.2 | +5.84% | -4.21% | +7.7% | weak-down | -27.49% (thesis: intact) |
| WOLF | $31.79 | 51.0 | -3.29% | -9.43% | +16.9% | weak-down | -60.67% |
| KLIC | $99.09 | 51.3 | +8.52% | -7.75% | +4.4% | weak-down | -29.46% (thesis: intact-but-priced) |
| AMKR | $58.99 | 49.5 | +6.73% | -12.79% | +5.0% | weak-down | -38.98% |
| AMVMF | $35.95 | 49.0 | -0.14% | -5.04% | +4.4% | strong-down | -26.96% (one session stale) |
| CRS | $544.59 | 47.4 | -4.57% | -5.63% | -2.3% | weak-down | -14.44% (regime: pullback, downgraded from uptrend) |
| SDVKY | $37.62 | 47.8 | -2.26% | -6.11% | +1.4% | weak-down | -14.71% |
| KMT | $31.22 | 40.4 | -5.16% | -9.61% | -6.5% | down | -27.9% |
Tier Analysis
Tier A — Confirmed strength (5): ATEYY, MP (freshly repaired), KEYS, TDY (freshly upgraded), TER.
Tier B — Improving mid-book (5): ALM (continuing repair), ASX, BESIY (thesis intact), AMVMF (data caveat), CRS (fresh downgrade, third flip).
Tier C — Still weak, no fresh change (5): WOLF, KLIC (thesis intact-but-priced), AMKR, SDVKY, KMT (now the lowest RSI in the book).
Tier D — Structural avoid, regime collapse (0, down from 1): none this cycle — MP repaired.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP | $58.74 | 67.1 | +18.76% | Fresh repair out of collapse, clearing the book's last remaining collapse tag |
| TER | $418.79 | 60.6 | +22.41% | 30-day return more than doubled this cycle, though the regime tag hasn't caught up to uptrend yet |
| BESIY | $270.96 | 53.2 | -4.21% | Thesis intact, monthly loss narrowed further |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | ATEYY, KEYS, TDY | Confirmed uptrend structure |
| 🔍 RESEARCH | MP, TER, ELMT | Fresh repair (MP) or strong 30-day gains the regime tag hasn't confirmed (TER, ELMT) |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | BESIY, ALM | Thesis-rated or continuing-repair names with narrowing or reversed monthly losses |
| 🔍 WATCH | ASX, WOLF, AMKR, SDVKY, CRS | Mid-book, mixed reads; CRS's third regime flip in three cycles is worth tracking closely |
| ⚠️ AVOID | KMT | Now the lowest RSI in the book, the one name whose monthly return got worse this cycle |
| 🔍 DATA CAVEAT | AMVMF | One session stale bar, with an unusually large relative-volume print behind it |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| CRS's next regime tag | Three flips in three cycles (pullback → uptrend → pullback) — the current tag has no more confirmation than the last two |
| Whether the collapse pocket stays at zero | MP's repair clears it for the first time in recent cycles — worth seeing if the tag holds |
| TER and ELMT's regime tags catching up to their 30-day gains | Both posted strong monthly returns while still tagged pullback and too-young respectively |
| KMT's continued deterioration | Now the lowest RSI in the book, the one name moving against an otherwise-improving tape |
| AMVMF's next print | Stale bar with an unusual volume spike behind it — needs a current print to confirm |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-14 close (AMVMF one session behind at 2026-08-13) — supply-chain-traces.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.