Supply Chain Traces Scan

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Supply Chain Traces Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 34 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusscheduledprior scanresearch/scans/2026-08-22-supply-chain-traces.md

MP is the name to flag this cycle: the short-term bounce flagged last scan as a caution case did not hold — its RSI fell from 65.2 to 53.7, its regime downgraded fresh from pullback to downtrend, and its already-negative trailing year deepened further (-12.05% to -23.63%, alpha1y from -33.87 to -43.5). BESIY flipped fresh into collapse this cycle too, but its trailing year is still solidly positive (+60.14%, alpha1y +40.27) — a pullback, not a repeat of MP's pattern. WOLF's trailing-year number swung from a prior +1,780% to -69.76% this cycle — a 2025 bankruptcy-reorganization equity exchange (confirmed via SEC 8-K) makes any year-over-year comparison for this name unreliable; use its position below the 200-day instead.

Data as-of the 2026-08-28 close for the full 16-name book — no staleness this cycle. AMVMF finally printed real volume (100 shares) after prior cycles of zero-volume prints, though the size remains thin. The comparison baseline below is the August 22 scan.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 A mixed cycle — MP's caution flag from last scan resolved negative, BESIY joined the collapse pocket, and most of the rest of the book cooled modestly
Leaders ALM (RSI 60.2), SDVKY (60.6), ATEYY (52.3) — all extending or holding gains with positive trailing-year backing
Laggards MP is the clearest deterioration this cycle — regime downgraded, RSI fell 11.5 points, and its trailing year got worse, not better
Caveat WOLF's trailing-year figure is unreliable across its 2025 bankruptcy-reorganization equity exchange; don't read its swing from +1,780% to -69.76% as a real move

What's Going On

MP is the name most worth flagging this cycle. Last scan's caution — that MP's short-term bounce (RSI 65.2, 30-day return +31.46%) sat on top of a negative trailing year — did not resolve into a repair. This cycle, MP's RSI fell sharply to 53.7 and its regime downgraded fresh from pullback to downtrend, even as its 30-day return is still showing +47.32%. More importantly, the longer-horizon numbers moved the wrong way: trailing year widened from -12.05% to -23.63%, and alpha1y worsened from -33.87 to -43.5. A name whose short-term print looks strong while its regime downgrades and its annual performance deteriorates further is the clearest case in this book for trusting the long window over the short one.

BESIY also flipped fresh into collapse this cycle — RSI fell from 43.3 to 35.6 — but unlike MP, its trailing-year data still argues for a pullback rather than a breakdown: it remains up 60.14% over 12 months with a positive alpha1y of 40.27, and its thesis is still rated intact. The two fresh downgrades in this book this cycle look structurally different once the annual window is applied: MP's is corroborated, BESIY's is not.

WOLF needs a data-integrity caveat before its trailing-year number means anything. Last cycle's scan flagged that WOLF's then-positive one-year print (+1,780.29%) was likely distorted by a prior severe decline setting an unusually low base. This cycle, that same trailing-year calculation flipped to -69.76% — a swing large enough on its own to signal something other than genuine price action. The underlying data confirms it: WOLF underwent a bankruptcy-reorganization equity exchange dated 2025-09-29, per a Wolfspeed Form 8-K on file, with a further contingent-share realization confirmed in a January 2026 8-K. Any trailing-year return that spans that exchange date is not a clean comparison. The more trustworthy signal for WOLF is its position relative to its 200-day, where it currently sits 9.6% below — a trend genuinely under test, but not one this scan can size using the one-year return.

Away from those two, the rest of the book mostly cooled in line with the broader pattern from other lanes this cycle: TER, KLIC, KEYS, ELMT, and ALM all posted lower RSI than last scan, and CRS held its regime steady at pullback for the first time after three straight cycles of whipsawing, still up 96.42% over the trailing year and above its 200-day. ASX was one of the few names to gain ground, RSI climbing from 45.9 to 50.4. AMKR's collapse tag from last cycle held; its trailing year is still positive at +94.16%, though that figure has come down from the +116.54% cited last scan, and it remains 14.1% below its 200-day. KMT continues to carry the weakest technical label in the book (downtrend, death-cross), but its trailing year is still positive at +36.32% with a positive alpha1y of 16.45 — a reminder that even KMT's chart weakness doesn't yet have full annual-horizon backing.

What Changed Since August 22

  • MP: regime downgraded pullback → downtrend; RSI 65.2 → 53.7, an 11.5-point drop; trailing year worsened from -12.05% to -23.63%; alpha1y worsened from -33.87 to -43.5.
  • BESIY: regime downgraded pullback → collapse; RSI 43.3 → 35.6; trailing year remains solidly positive at +60.14% with positive alpha — a pullback tag, not a breakdown.
  • WOLF: trailing-year figure swung from a prior +1,780.29% to -69.76% this cycle — both numbers span a confirmed 2025 bankruptcy-reorganization equity exchange and should not be read as real price moves.
  • TDY: regime downgraded uptrend → pullback; RSI 39.3 → 36.2.
  • ASX: RSI 45.9 → 50.4, one of the few names to gain ground this cycle.
  • AMVMF: printed real volume (100 shares) for the first time after prior zero-volume cycles, though still thin against a 375-share average; RSI 62.2 → 50.0.
  • AMKR: regime held collapse; trailing year eased slightly from +116.54% to +94.16%, still positive; remains 14.1% below its 200-day.
  • CRS: RSI 35.6 → 34.9, roughly flat; regime held pullback for the first time after three straight cycles of flipping; still +96.42% over the trailing year.
  • KMT: RSI 36.5 → 37.6, roughly flat; regime held downtrend; trailing year still positive at +36.32%.
  • ALM: RSI 66.9 → 60.2, cooling but still the highest reading alongside SDVKY.

How To Read The Board

Regime labels describe chart structure, not a buy/sell call, and this cycle's clearest lesson is that MP's fresh downgrade and BESIY's fresh downgrade are not the same kind of event even though both happened in the same week. MP's regime downgrade is backed by a trailing year that got measurably worse — the short-term bounce flagged as suspect last cycle has now failed to hold, and both the annual return and the alpha moved in the wrong direction. BESIY's downgrade, by contrast, sits on top of a trailing year that remains strongly positive with a positive alpha — a violent pullback, not a confirmed break. WOLF is a special case this cycle: its trailing-year swing from roughly +1,780% to -69.76% is a data-integrity artifact of a 2025 bankruptcy-reorganization equity exchange, not a real one-year price move, and should be set aside in favor of its position below the 200-day. CRS finally holding its regime steady after three straight whipsaws is worth noting on its own — the longest stable read this name has shown in this dataset.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Signal
SDVKY $40.81 60.6 $39.02 +4.6% +1.39% +14.54% uptrend
ALM $18.04 60.2 $15.69 +15.0% -2.54% +64.75% pullback
ATEYY $214.70 52.3 $217.90 -1.5% -4.78% +29.14% uptrend
MP $56.13 53.7 $54.76 +2.5% -6.41% +47.32% downtrend (fresh; trailing year worsened)
AMVMF $37.85 50.0 $36.25 +4.4% -5.4% +21.2% pullback (real volume, ends zero-volume streak)
ASX $37.78 50.4 $37.69 +0.2% +3.42% +21.4% pullback
ELMT $16.64 48.2 $17.20 -3.2% -15.72% +30.61% too-young
KEYS $319.97 45.1 $333.75 -4.1% +1.08% +7.84% pullback
TER $354.97 43.8 $385.35 -7.9% -5.53% +11.13% pullback
WOLF $25.85 42.9 $28.45 -9.1% +0.31% +28.86% collapse (trailing-year figure unreliable — see caveat)
AMKR $47.88 39.3 $53.11 -9.9% -4.72% +12.05% collapse
KMT $29.54 37.6 $31.38 -5.9% -1.43% -11.95% downtrend (death-cross, alpha1y still positive)
TDY $621.96 36.2 $661.24 -5.9% -2.19% -1.49% pullback
KLIC $81.03 36.1 $89.85 -9.8% -5.42% -2.21% pullback (thesis: intact-but-priced)
BESIY $225.98 35.6 $249.65 -9.5% -9.07% +4.66% collapse (fresh; alpha1y still positive)
CRS $476.43 34.9 $524.90 -9.2% -3.26% -10.21% pullback (regime held after 3-cycle whipsaw)

Tier Analysis

Tier A — Confirmed strength (3): SDVKY, ALM, ATEYY.

Tier B — Mid-book, cooling (4): MP (fresh downtrend, worsening trailing year), AMVMF (data quality upgrade), ASX, ELMT.

Tier C — Weaker, RSI 40-48 (3): KEYS, TER, WOLF (trailing-year figure unreliable).

Tier D — Weakest, RSI <40 (6): AMKR, KMT, TDY, KLIC, BESIY (fresh collapse, still positive alpha), CRS.

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
BESIY $225.98 35.6 +4.66% Fresh collapse tag this cycle, but still +60.14% over the trailing year with positive alpha and thesis rated intact
CRS $476.43 34.9 -10.21% Held its regime steady after three straight cycles of whipsawing; still +96.42% over the trailing year and above its 200-day
KMT $29.54 37.6 -11.95% Weakest technical label in the book (downtrend, death-cross), but still +36.32% over the trailing year with positive alpha

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD SDVKY, ALM, ATEYY Confirmed strength, extending or holding gains with positive trailing-year backing
⚠️ AVOID MP The one name this cycle where a regime downgrade is corroborated by a deteriorating trailing year and alpha — the caution flagged last scan did not resolve
🔍 WATCH BESIY, CRS, KMT Fresh or continuing weak regime tags, but all three remain positive on the trailing year with positive alpha
⚠️ AVOID AMKR, WOLF Continuing collapse tags below their 200-day; WOLF's trailing-year figure additionally carries a data-integrity caveat from its 2025 equity exchange
🔍 DATA CAVEAT WOLF Trailing-year return spans a confirmed bankruptcy-reorganization equity exchange (2025-09-29); do not read the year-over-year swing as a price move
🔍 DATA CAVEAT AMVMF Printed its first real volume this cycle (100 shares) after prior zero-volume prints; still thin

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Whether MP's downtrend deepens further The trailing year and alpha both moved the wrong way this cycle — the caution flagged last scan is now the more accurate read
BESIY's collapse tag against its still-positive trailing year The cleanest test in this book of a fresh downgrade that the annual data doesn't yet support
WOLF's next print once further from the equity-exchange boundary The trailing-year comparison should become more reliable as the 2025-09-29 exchange date rolls further out of the one-year window
Whether CRS's newly stable regime holds The first cycle without a flip after three straight; worth confirming this wasn't just a pause
AMVMF's volume trend First real print after prior zero-volume cycles, but still far below its own average — needs a larger confirming trade

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year, SMA200): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-28 close — supply-chain-traces.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.