Supply Chain Traces Scan
Supply Chain Traces Scan
Last cycle's cooling leadership pocket broke down hard this week — ASX lost its uptrend regime label entirely, SDVKY's RSI cratered from 49.9 to 31.0 in a single cycle, and MP's downtrend regime deepened into outright collapse. TER's confirmed rollover accelerated further (30-day now -26.39%, was -5.72%), while TDY remains the one name holding its basing structure steady.
Data as-of 2026-07-17 close for all 15 names — a full, fresh pull, no staleness this cycle. Prior scan: 2026-07-11-supply-chain-traces (data as-of 2026-07-10 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 Broad breakdown — ASX's uptrend regime failed, SDVKY's RSI collapsed in one cycle, MP and AMVMF both slipped into collapse |
| Key insight | TER's rollover, flagged last cycle in both this book and wfe-test-metrology, deepened from -5.72% to -26.39% on a 30-day basis |
What's Going On
The book's steadiest name last cycle, TDY, is still the steadiest — RSI actually improved slightly to 52.1 and its distance from its 52-week high held roughly flat at -8.34%, still in a basing regime. Everything else cooled hard. ASX, which had carried an explicit uptrend regime tag through last cycle's cooldown, lost that label this cycle — RSI fell from 56.7 to 46.7 and its 30-day reading flipped from +17.10% to -4.36%, the sharpest reversal of a confirmed uptrend in the book. SDVKY's move was even more abrupt: RSI dropped from 49.9 to 31.0 in a single cycle, alongside an -8.89% single-day decline today, taking it out of its basing regime entirely. CRS, still nominally in an uptrend regime, posted its first negative 30-day print of the cycle (-4.89%, was +2.87%) — a deceleration worth watching rather than dismissing, echoing the pattern flagged in the wfe-test-metrology book for ASML/KLAC/LRCX. TER's flagged rollover from last cycle didn't just continue, it accelerated: 30-day went from -5.72% to -26.39%, distance from high widening to -33.93%. MP's downtrend regime deepened into collapse, and AMVMF — flagged last cycle as "deepest oversold, unconfirmed" at RSI 29.2 — is now explicitly tagged collapse too, still with no thesis rating to support the low RSI. BESIY, the one thesis-intact name in the book, kept deteriorating in price (30-day now -29.91%, was -20.43%) even as its rating holds.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (07-10 → 07-17)
- ASX: regime downgraded from uptrend to pullback; RSI 56.7 → 46.7, 30-day flipped from +17.10% to -4.36%, -15.62% from high (was -6.28%).
- SDVKY: RSI 49.9 → 31.0, the sharpest single-cycle drop in the book; regime shifted from basing to pullback, -21.31% from high (was -8.92%).
- CRS: RSI 47.7 (from 55.6), first negative 30-day print of the cycle (-4.89%, was +2.87%); regime still uptrend.
- TER: 30-day deepened from -5.72% to -26.39%, -33.93% from high (was -26.30%) — the confirmed rollover from last cycle accelerated sharply.
- KLIC: RSI 48.9 → 37.8, 30-day flipped from +1.60% to -20.23% — last cycle's flagged cooling turned into an outright breakdown.
- MP: regime downgraded downtrend → collapse; RSI 40.7 → 31.1, 30-day deepened from -8.69% to -25.69%.
- AMVMF: regime now explicitly tagged collapse; RSI roughly flat at 30.5 (was 29.2), 30-day deepened from -11.81% to -21.84% — still no thesis rating.
- BESIY: thesis still rated intact; 30-day deepened from -20.43% to -29.91%, -31.28% from high (was -21.64%).
- ATEYY: trend downgraded strong-up → weak-down, 30-day flipped from +10.86% to -8.69%.
- TDY: the one name holding steady — RSI 50.6 → 52.1, distance from high roughly flat (-8.48% → -8.34%).
How To Read The Board
A regime label carries more weight than a single week's RSI move, but ASX and SDVKY's fresh downgrades this cycle are the kind of change that matters on its own — both lost a confirmed uptrend/basing tag they'd held through the prior cooldown. CRS's first negative 30-day print (still uptrend regime) is a deceleration worth watching, not yet a downgrade. AMVMF's low RSI reads as "oversold" by the numbers alone, but a collapse regime with no thesis rating means it needs independent confirmation before it's treated as a signal.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs SMA20 | Trend | From 52wkHigh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TDY | $635.52 | 52.1 | +0.14% | +2.57% | +0.3% | strong-up | -8.34% (regime: basing) |
| CRS | $557.77 | 47.7 | -3.60% | -4.89% | -5.1% | strong-up | -10.90% (regime: uptrend) |
| ATEYY | $178.05 | 47.6 | -4.43% | -8.69% | -6.0% | weak-down | -19.96% |
| ASX | $38.41 | 46.7 | -9.96% | -4.36% | -6.7% | weak-down | -15.62% |
| KMT | $33.74 | 46.0 | +0.42% | -7.10% | -2.2% | weak-down | -22.99% |
| KEYS | $315.90 | 42.7 | -1.91% | -13.14% | -5.1% | weak-down | -15.75% |
| AMKR | $62.94 | 39.3 | -10.69% | -30.42% | -16.7% | weak-down | -34.90% |
| TER | $322.36 | 39.2 | -10.36% | -26.39% | -18.1% | weak-down | -33.93% |
| KLIC | $97.22 | 37.8 | -14.28% | -20.23% | -17.1% | weak-down | -28.41% |
| ELMT | $14.41 | 34.4 | -9.03% | -25.87% | -15.8% | neutral | -35.98% (regime: too-young) |
| WOLF | $29.89 | 34.3 | -15.30% | -47.94% | -27.4% | weak-down | -63.02% (regime: too-young) |
| BESIY | $257.23 | 32.5 | -12.31% | -29.91% | -16.0% | weak-down | -31.28% (thesis: intact) |
| MP | $45.24 | 31.1 | -13.35% | -25.69% | -15.1% | strong-down | -54.87% (regime: collapse) |
| SDVKY | $35.04 | 31.0 | -13.61% | -17.69% | -12.8% | down | -21.31% |
| AMVMF | $34.00 | 30.5 | -5.16% | -21.84% | -11.0% | down | -30.92% (regime: collapse) |
Tier Analysis
Tier A — Steadiest hold: TDY. The only name in this book without fresh regime or momentum damage this cycle.
Tier B — Cooling leadership, structure intact but momentum flipping negative: CRS (still uptrend, first negative 30-day print), ATEYY, KMT, KEYS.
Tier C — Confirmed rollover / breakdown this cycle: ASX (lost its uptrend label), TER (rollover deepened sharply), KLIC (cooling turned into breakdown), AMKR.
Tier D — Thesis-intact pullback, still deteriorating: BESIY.
Tier E — Structural avoid, collapse regime: MP (downtrend → collapse), AMVMF (down → collapse, still no thesis rating), WOLF, ELMT (too-young regime, severe damage).
Tier F — Fresh sharp deterioration: SDVKY (RSI 49.9 → 31.0, basing → pullback in one cycle).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BESIY | $257.23 | 32.5 | -29.91% | Thesis intact, deep pullback — the one rated name in the book, still deteriorating in price |
| TDY | $635.52 | 52.1 | +2.57% | Steady basing hold — not a discount, the one name without fresh damage |
| CRS | $557.77 | 47.7 | -4.89% | Still uptrend regime despite its first negative 30-day print — watch for whether this is digestion or the start of a real cooldown |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | TDY | Only name without fresh regime or momentum damage this cycle |
| 🔍 WATCH | CRS, ATEYY, KMT, KEYS, BESIY | Cooling or thesis-intact pullback, no confirmed break yet |
| ⚠️ AVOID | ASX, TER, KLIC, AMKR, SDVKY | Confirmed rollover or fresh breakdown this cycle |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | MP, AMVMF, WOLF, ELMT | Collapse regime, or too-young with severe damage and no thesis rating |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| SDVKY's RSI collapse (49.9 → 31.0) | The sharpest single-cycle move in the book — needs confirmation of a floor |
| ASX's uptrend regime loss | The book's steadiest riser downgraded for the first time this cycle |
| TER's accelerating rollover | 30-day now -26.39%, also cross-referenced in the wfe-test-metrology book (dual-listed) |
| BESIY's thesis-intact rating vs. continued price damage | 30-day now -29.91% — worth an independent check on whether the rating still holds |
| MP/AMVMF's collapse-regime confirmation | No repair signal in either — the two clearest structural avoids in the book |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-17 close — *.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.