Supply Chain Traces Scan

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Supply Chain Traces Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 29 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-11-supply-chain-traces.md

Last cycle's cooling leadership pocket broke down hard this week — ASX lost its uptrend regime label entirely, SDVKY's RSI cratered from 49.9 to 31.0 in a single cycle, and MP's downtrend regime deepened into outright collapse. TER's confirmed rollover accelerated further (30-day now -26.39%, was -5.72%), while TDY remains the one name holding its basing structure steady.

Data as-of 2026-07-17 close for all 15 names — a full, fresh pull, no staleness this cycle. Prior scan: 2026-07-11-supply-chain-traces (data as-of 2026-07-10 close).

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 Broad breakdown — ASX's uptrend regime failed, SDVKY's RSI collapsed in one cycle, MP and AMVMF both slipped into collapse
Key insight TER's rollover, flagged last cycle in both this book and wfe-test-metrology, deepened from -5.72% to -26.39% on a 30-day basis

What's Going On

The book's steadiest name last cycle, TDY, is still the steadiest — RSI actually improved slightly to 52.1 and its distance from its 52-week high held roughly flat at -8.34%, still in a basing regime. Everything else cooled hard. ASX, which had carried an explicit uptrend regime tag through last cycle's cooldown, lost that label this cycle — RSI fell from 56.7 to 46.7 and its 30-day reading flipped from +17.10% to -4.36%, the sharpest reversal of a confirmed uptrend in the book. SDVKY's move was even more abrupt: RSI dropped from 49.9 to 31.0 in a single cycle, alongside an -8.89% single-day decline today, taking it out of its basing regime entirely. CRS, still nominally in an uptrend regime, posted its first negative 30-day print of the cycle (-4.89%, was +2.87%) — a deceleration worth watching rather than dismissing, echoing the pattern flagged in the wfe-test-metrology book for ASML/KLAC/LRCX. TER's flagged rollover from last cycle didn't just continue, it accelerated: 30-day went from -5.72% to -26.39%, distance from high widening to -33.93%. MP's downtrend regime deepened into collapse, and AMVMF — flagged last cycle as "deepest oversold, unconfirmed" at RSI 29.2 — is now explicitly tagged collapse too, still with no thesis rating to support the low RSI. BESIY, the one thesis-intact name in the book, kept deteriorating in price (30-day now -29.91%, was -20.43%) even as its rating holds.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (07-10 → 07-17)

  • ASX: regime downgraded from uptrend to pullback; RSI 56.7 → 46.7, 30-day flipped from +17.10% to -4.36%, -15.62% from high (was -6.28%).
  • SDVKY: RSI 49.9 → 31.0, the sharpest single-cycle drop in the book; regime shifted from basing to pullback, -21.31% from high (was -8.92%).
  • CRS: RSI 47.7 (from 55.6), first negative 30-day print of the cycle (-4.89%, was +2.87%); regime still uptrend.
  • TER: 30-day deepened from -5.72% to -26.39%, -33.93% from high (was -26.30%) — the confirmed rollover from last cycle accelerated sharply.
  • KLIC: RSI 48.9 → 37.8, 30-day flipped from +1.60% to -20.23% — last cycle's flagged cooling turned into an outright breakdown.
  • MP: regime downgraded downtrend → collapse; RSI 40.7 → 31.1, 30-day deepened from -8.69% to -25.69%.
  • AMVMF: regime now explicitly tagged collapse; RSI roughly flat at 30.5 (was 29.2), 30-day deepened from -11.81% to -21.84% — still no thesis rating.
  • BESIY: thesis still rated intact; 30-day deepened from -20.43% to -29.91%, -31.28% from high (was -21.64%).
  • ATEYY: trend downgraded strong-up → weak-down, 30-day flipped from +10.86% to -8.69%.
  • TDY: the one name holding steady — RSI 50.6 → 52.1, distance from high roughly flat (-8.48% → -8.34%).

How To Read The Board

A regime label carries more weight than a single week's RSI move, but ASX and SDVKY's fresh downgrades this cycle are the kind of change that matters on its own — both lost a confirmed uptrend/basing tag they'd held through the prior cooldown. CRS's first negative 30-day print (still uptrend regime) is a deceleration worth watching, not yet a downgrade. AMVMF's low RSI reads as "oversold" by the numbers alone, but a collapse regime with no thesis rating means it needs independent confirmation before it's treated as a signal.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI 7D% 30D% vs SMA20 Trend From 52wkHigh
TDY $635.52 52.1 +0.14% +2.57% +0.3% strong-up -8.34% (regime: basing)
CRS $557.77 47.7 -3.60% -4.89% -5.1% strong-up -10.90% (regime: uptrend)
ATEYY $178.05 47.6 -4.43% -8.69% -6.0% weak-down -19.96%
ASX $38.41 46.7 -9.96% -4.36% -6.7% weak-down -15.62%
KMT $33.74 46.0 +0.42% -7.10% -2.2% weak-down -22.99%
KEYS $315.90 42.7 -1.91% -13.14% -5.1% weak-down -15.75%
AMKR $62.94 39.3 -10.69% -30.42% -16.7% weak-down -34.90%
TER $322.36 39.2 -10.36% -26.39% -18.1% weak-down -33.93%
KLIC $97.22 37.8 -14.28% -20.23% -17.1% weak-down -28.41%
ELMT $14.41 34.4 -9.03% -25.87% -15.8% neutral -35.98% (regime: too-young)
WOLF $29.89 34.3 -15.30% -47.94% -27.4% weak-down -63.02% (regime: too-young)
BESIY $257.23 32.5 -12.31% -29.91% -16.0% weak-down -31.28% (thesis: intact)
MP $45.24 31.1 -13.35% -25.69% -15.1% strong-down -54.87% (regime: collapse)
SDVKY $35.04 31.0 -13.61% -17.69% -12.8% down -21.31%
AMVMF $34.00 30.5 -5.16% -21.84% -11.0% down -30.92% (regime: collapse)

Tier Analysis

Tier A — Steadiest hold: TDY. The only name in this book without fresh regime or momentum damage this cycle.

Tier B — Cooling leadership, structure intact but momentum flipping negative: CRS (still uptrend, first negative 30-day print), ATEYY, KMT, KEYS.

Tier C — Confirmed rollover / breakdown this cycle: ASX (lost its uptrend label), TER (rollover deepened sharply), KLIC (cooling turned into breakdown), AMKR.

Tier D — Thesis-intact pullback, still deteriorating: BESIY.

Tier E — Structural avoid, collapse regime: MP (downtrend → collapse), AMVMF (down → collapse, still no thesis rating), WOLF, ELMT (too-young regime, severe damage).

Tier F — Fresh sharp deterioration: SDVKY (RSI 49.9 → 31.0, basing → pullback in one cycle).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
BESIY $257.23 32.5 -29.91% Thesis intact, deep pullback — the one rated name in the book, still deteriorating in price
TDY $635.52 52.1 +2.57% Steady basing hold — not a discount, the one name without fresh damage
CRS $557.77 47.7 -4.89% Still uptrend regime despite its first negative 30-day print — watch for whether this is digestion or the start of a real cooldown

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD TDY Only name without fresh regime or momentum damage this cycle
🔍 WATCH CRS, ATEYY, KMT, KEYS, BESIY Cooling or thesis-intact pullback, no confirmed break yet
⚠️ AVOID ASX, TER, KLIC, AMKR, SDVKY Confirmed rollover or fresh breakdown this cycle
❌ DON'T BUY MP, AMVMF, WOLF, ELMT Collapse regime, or too-young with severe damage and no thesis rating

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
SDVKY's RSI collapse (49.9 → 31.0) The sharpest single-cycle move in the book — needs confirmation of a floor
ASX's uptrend regime loss The book's steadiest riser downgraded for the first time this cycle
TER's accelerating rollover 30-day now -26.39%, also cross-referenced in the wfe-test-metrology book (dual-listed)
BESIY's thesis-intact rating vs. continued price damage 30-day now -29.91% — worth an independent check on whether the rating still holds
MP/AMVMF's collapse-regime confirmation No repair signal in either — the two clearest structural avoids in the book

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-17 close — *.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.