Supply Chain Traces Scan

Scan

Supply Chain Traces Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 28 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-07-supply-chain-traces.md

CRS, last week's standout with RSI 73.7 flagged as "both the book's strongest name and its nearest overbought risk," cooled hard — RSI down to 55.6 on a real price pullback (-6.6% off its 07-06 close) while staying in an uptrend regime, -7.57% from its 52-week high. TER's rollover-risk flag from last scan materialized: its 30-day reading flipped from +1.29% to -5.72% and distance from its 52-week high widened to -26.30%. AMVMF is now the book's most oversold name (RSI 29.2) inside a down trend with no thesis rating — not a confirmed buy signal.

Data as-of 2026-07-10 close. Prior scan: 2026-07-07-supply-chain-traces (data as-of 2026-07-06 close).

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟢 Still mostly constructive — the leadership pocket cooled from overbought without breaking, TER is the one confirmed rollover risk
Key insight CRS's flagged overbought risk resolved into an orderly pullback so far (still uptrend regime); TER's flagged risk did not resolve — it deepened

What's Going On

The book's leadership pocket — CRS, ASX, ATEYY, KLIC, SDVKY, TDY — all cooled meaningfully off last week's RSI highs, but every one of them held its uptrend/strong-up trend label through the pullback, reading as digestion rather than a break. CRS is the clearest example: RSI eased from 73.7 to 55.6 on a genuine price pullback ($619.25 → $578.61), while its distance from its 52-week high widened only modestly, from -1.08% to -7.57% — still an uptrend regime. TER is the exception that did not resolve cleanly: flagged last scan as needing to stabilize "or it starts looking like CAMT" (the wfe-test-metrology book's confirmed break), its 30-day reading instead flipped negative (+1.29% → -5.72%) and its distance from its 52-week high widened to -26.30% from -22.22% — the rollover risk materialized rather than faded. MP remains the clean structural avoid, unchanged in its downtrend regime. BESIY, flagged last week as the pullback-entry candidate on a thesis-intact rating, saw its 30-day reading deepen (-8.87% → -20.43%) while its distance from its 52-week high held roughly flat — still the one actionable pullback name in the book. AMVMF is a fresh flag: RSI dropped to 29.2, the deepest oversold read here, but it sits inside a down trend with no thesis rating — worth watching, not buying on the RSI alone.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (07-06 → 07-10)

  • CRS: RSI 73.7 → 55.6 on a genuine price pullback; still uptrend regime, -7.57% from high (was -1.08%) — the flagged overbought risk resolved into an orderly cooldown so far.
  • ASX: RSI 60.1 → 56.7, 30-day gain decelerated from +23.17% to +17.1% — steady cooldown, still strong-up.
  • TDY: RSI 60.1 → 50.6, regime shifted from uptrend to basing — a real cooldown.
  • SDVKY: RSI 57.2 → 49.9, regime shifted from strong-up to basing.
  • KLIC: RSI 53.2 → 48.9, 30-day gain decelerated sharply from +16.90% to +1.6%.
  • TER: 30-day flipped from +1.29% to -5.72%; distance from high widened -22.22% → -26.30% — the flagged rollover risk from last scan confirmed.
  • BESIY: 30-day deepened from -8.87% to -20.43%; distance from high held roughly flat (-21.63% → -21.64%) — thesis still rated intact.
  • MP: unchanged structural avoid — still strong-down trend, downtrend regime, distance from high widened slightly (-47.12% → -47.92%).
  • AMVMF: RSI dropped from 37.3 to 29.2 — now the book's deepest oversold read, still inside a down trend with no thesis rating.
  • WOLF, ELMT: both deteriorated further in a too-young regime (no SMA200 baseline yet) — WOLF's distance from high widened to -56.34% (was -51.16%).

How To Read The Board

An uptrend/strong-up label cooling in RSI (CRS, ASX, KLIC, SDVKY, TDY) is digestion, not weakness, as long as the regime label itself doesn't downgrade. TER's flip from a flat 30-day read to a negative one, alongside a widening distance from its high, is the kind of change that does matter — it's the confirmation of last week's explicit caution, not a fresh coincidence. AMVMF's RSI 29.2 sits in the "oversold" icon range by the numbers alone, but a down trend with no thesis rating means it needs independent confirmation before it's treated as a signal rather than a falling name that happens to be cheap.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI 7D% 30D% vs SMA20 Trend From 52wkHigh
ASX $42.66 56.7 -4.39% +17.10% +5.3% strong-up -6.28% (regime: uptrend)
CRS $578.61 55.6 -6.19% +2.87% -1.5% strong-up -7.57% (regime: uptrend)
ATEYY $186.31 51.0 -1.01% +10.86% -1.7% strong-up -16.25%
TDY $634.60 50.6 -3.82% +1.74% +0.3% strong-up -8.48% (regime: basing)
SDVKY $40.56 49.9 -3.34% +2.79% -0.4% strong-up -8.92% (regime: basing)
KLIC $113.41 48.9 -9.00% +1.60% -5.4% strong-up -16.49%
AMKR $70.47 44.8 -2.80% -7.46% -11.8% weak-down -27.11%
KMT $33.60 44.6 -0.12% -2.89% -3.4% weak-down -23.31%
KEYS $322.05 44.2 -1.49% -5.29% -5.4% weak-down -14.11%
TER $359.60 44.0 -9.09% -5.72% -12.6% weak-down -26.30%
BESIY $293.34 41.4 +0.09% -20.43% -10.5% weak-down -21.64% (thesis: intact)
MP $52.21 40.7 -4.34% -8.69% -6.4% strong-down -47.92% (regime: downtrend)
ELMT $15.84 38.9 -10.27% -18.48% -13.6% neutral -29.63% (regime: too-young)
WOLF $35.29 38.4 -16.05% -22.51% -20.8% neutral -56.34% (regime: too-young)
AMVMF $35.85 29.2 n/a -11.81% -9.5% down -27.16%

Tier Analysis

Tier A — Cooling confirmed uptrends (RSI 48+, strong-up): ASX, CRS, ATEYY, TDY, SDVKY, KLIC. All decelerated meaningfully off last week's overbought reads but held trend structure — orderly digestion so far.

Tier B — Confirmed rollover risk: TER. The flagged concern from last scan materialized — 30-day flipped negative, distance from high widened.

Tier C — Pullback / mid-pack (RSI 40-45, weak-down): AMKR, KMT, KEYS, BESIY. BESIY is the one name here with a thesis-intact rating.

Tier D — Structural avoid, unchanged: MP. Still the clean downtrend-regime laggard.

Tier E — Thin/uncertain baseline (too-young regime): ELMT, WOLF. Both deepening with no SMA200 history to confirm structure.

Tier F — Deepest oversold, unconfirmed: AMVMF. RSI 29.2 but down trend, no thesis rating — needs confirmation before treating as a signal.

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
BESIY $293.34 41.4 -20.43% Thesis intact, pullback in what was an uptrend — the one actionable entry watch in the book
AMVMF $35.85 29.2 -11.81% Deepest oversold read, but down trend with no thesis rating — watch for confirmation, not a buy signal on RSI alone
CRS $578.61 55.6 +2.87% Still uptrend regime after a real cooldown — hold, watch for whether -7.57% from high is the extent of the pullback

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD ASX, CRS, ATEYY, TDY, SDVKY, KLIC Strong-up/uptrend structure intact despite this week's cooldown
📈 ACCUMULATE BESIY Thesis intact pullback candidate
🔍 WATCH AMKR, KMT, KEYS, TER, AMVMF Mid-pack digestion (TER: confirmed rollover risk); AMVMF's RSI is the book's most oversold but unconfirmed by trend or thesis
⚠️ AVOID MP, ELMT, WOLF Downtrend regime (MP) or too-young/deepening (ELMT, WOLF)

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
CRS's cooldown Still -7.57% from its 52-week high in an uptrend regime — confirm this stays orderly rather than becoming a deeper pullback
TER's confirmed rollover Cross-referenced in the wfe-test-metrology book too — watch whether it follows CAMT into a deeper structural break
BESIY's basing The one thesis-intact pullback name — needs a base before it's more than a watch
AMVMF's RSI 29.2 The book's deepest oversold read, but with a down trend and no thesis rating — needs independent confirmation
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.