Supply Chain Traces Scan
Supply Chain Traces Scan
CRS, last week's standout with RSI 73.7 flagged as "both the book's strongest name and its nearest overbought risk," cooled hard — RSI down to 55.6 on a real price pullback (-6.6% off its 07-06 close) while staying in an uptrend regime, -7.57% from its 52-week high. TER's rollover-risk flag from last scan materialized: its 30-day reading flipped from +1.29% to -5.72% and distance from its 52-week high widened to -26.30%. AMVMF is now the book's most oversold name (RSI 29.2) inside a down trend with no thesis rating — not a confirmed buy signal.
Data as-of 2026-07-10 close. Prior scan: 2026-07-07-supply-chain-traces (data as-of 2026-07-06 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 Still mostly constructive — the leadership pocket cooled from overbought without breaking, TER is the one confirmed rollover risk |
| Key insight | CRS's flagged overbought risk resolved into an orderly pullback so far (still uptrend regime); TER's flagged risk did not resolve — it deepened |
What's Going On
The book's leadership pocket — CRS, ASX, ATEYY, KLIC, SDVKY, TDY — all cooled meaningfully off last week's RSI highs, but every one of them held its uptrend/strong-up trend label through the pullback, reading as digestion rather than a break. CRS is the clearest example: RSI eased from 73.7 to 55.6 on a genuine price pullback ($619.25 → $578.61), while its distance from its 52-week high widened only modestly, from -1.08% to -7.57% — still an uptrend regime. TER is the exception that did not resolve cleanly: flagged last scan as needing to stabilize "or it starts looking like CAMT" (the wfe-test-metrology book's confirmed break), its 30-day reading instead flipped negative (+1.29% → -5.72%) and its distance from its 52-week high widened to -26.30% from -22.22% — the rollover risk materialized rather than faded. MP remains the clean structural avoid, unchanged in its downtrend regime. BESIY, flagged last week as the pullback-entry candidate on a thesis-intact rating, saw its 30-day reading deepen (-8.87% → -20.43%) while its distance from its 52-week high held roughly flat — still the one actionable pullback name in the book. AMVMF is a fresh flag: RSI dropped to 29.2, the deepest oversold read here, but it sits inside a down trend with no thesis rating — worth watching, not buying on the RSI alone.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (07-06 → 07-10)
- CRS: RSI 73.7 → 55.6 on a genuine price pullback; still uptrend regime, -7.57% from high (was -1.08%) — the flagged overbought risk resolved into an orderly cooldown so far.
- ASX: RSI 60.1 → 56.7, 30-day gain decelerated from +23.17% to +17.1% — steady cooldown, still strong-up.
- TDY: RSI 60.1 → 50.6, regime shifted from uptrend to basing — a real cooldown.
- SDVKY: RSI 57.2 → 49.9, regime shifted from strong-up to basing.
- KLIC: RSI 53.2 → 48.9, 30-day gain decelerated sharply from +16.90% to +1.6%.
- TER: 30-day flipped from +1.29% to -5.72%; distance from high widened -22.22% → -26.30% — the flagged rollover risk from last scan confirmed.
- BESIY: 30-day deepened from -8.87% to -20.43%; distance from high held roughly flat (-21.63% → -21.64%) — thesis still rated intact.
- MP: unchanged structural avoid — still strong-down trend, downtrend regime, distance from high widened slightly (-47.12% → -47.92%).
- AMVMF: RSI dropped from 37.3 to 29.2 — now the book's deepest oversold read, still inside a down trend with no thesis rating.
- WOLF, ELMT: both deteriorated further in a too-young regime (no SMA200 baseline yet) — WOLF's distance from high widened to -56.34% (was -51.16%).
How To Read The Board
An uptrend/strong-up label cooling in RSI (CRS, ASX, KLIC, SDVKY, TDY) is digestion, not weakness, as long as the regime label itself doesn't downgrade. TER's flip from a flat 30-day read to a negative one, alongside a widening distance from its high, is the kind of change that does matter — it's the confirmation of last week's explicit caution, not a fresh coincidence. AMVMF's RSI 29.2 sits in the "oversold" icon range by the numbers alone, but a down trend with no thesis rating means it needs independent confirmation before it's treated as a signal rather than a falling name that happens to be cheap.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs SMA20 | Trend | From 52wkHigh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASX | $42.66 | 56.7 | -4.39% | +17.10% | +5.3% | strong-up | -6.28% (regime: uptrend) |
| CRS | $578.61 | 55.6 | -6.19% | +2.87% | -1.5% | strong-up | -7.57% (regime: uptrend) |
| ATEYY | $186.31 | 51.0 | -1.01% | +10.86% | -1.7% | strong-up | -16.25% |
| TDY | $634.60 | 50.6 | -3.82% | +1.74% | +0.3% | strong-up | -8.48% (regime: basing) |
| SDVKY | $40.56 | 49.9 | -3.34% | +2.79% | -0.4% | strong-up | -8.92% (regime: basing) |
| KLIC | $113.41 | 48.9 | -9.00% | +1.60% | -5.4% | strong-up | -16.49% |
| AMKR | $70.47 | 44.8 | -2.80% | -7.46% | -11.8% | weak-down | -27.11% |
| KMT | $33.60 | 44.6 | -0.12% | -2.89% | -3.4% | weak-down | -23.31% |
| KEYS | $322.05 | 44.2 | -1.49% | -5.29% | -5.4% | weak-down | -14.11% |
| TER | $359.60 | 44.0 | -9.09% | -5.72% | -12.6% | weak-down | -26.30% |
| BESIY | $293.34 | 41.4 | +0.09% | -20.43% | -10.5% | weak-down | -21.64% (thesis: intact) |
| MP | $52.21 | 40.7 | -4.34% | -8.69% | -6.4% | strong-down | -47.92% (regime: downtrend) |
| ELMT | $15.84 | 38.9 | -10.27% | -18.48% | -13.6% | neutral | -29.63% (regime: too-young) |
| WOLF | $35.29 | 38.4 | -16.05% | -22.51% | -20.8% | neutral | -56.34% (regime: too-young) |
| AMVMF | $35.85 | 29.2 | n/a | -11.81% | -9.5% | down | -27.16% |
Tier Analysis
Tier A — Cooling confirmed uptrends (RSI 48+, strong-up): ASX, CRS, ATEYY, TDY, SDVKY, KLIC. All decelerated meaningfully off last week's overbought reads but held trend structure — orderly digestion so far.
Tier B — Confirmed rollover risk: TER. The flagged concern from last scan materialized — 30-day flipped negative, distance from high widened.
Tier C — Pullback / mid-pack (RSI 40-45, weak-down): AMKR, KMT, KEYS, BESIY. BESIY is the one name here with a thesis-intact rating.
Tier D — Structural avoid, unchanged: MP. Still the clean downtrend-regime laggard.
Tier E — Thin/uncertain baseline (too-young regime): ELMT, WOLF. Both deepening with no SMA200 history to confirm structure.
Tier F — Deepest oversold, unconfirmed: AMVMF. RSI 29.2 but down trend, no thesis rating — needs confirmation before treating as a signal.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BESIY | $293.34 | 41.4 | -20.43% | Thesis intact, pullback in what was an uptrend — the one actionable entry watch in the book |
| AMVMF | $35.85 | 29.2 | -11.81% | Deepest oversold read, but down trend with no thesis rating — watch for confirmation, not a buy signal on RSI alone |
| CRS | $578.61 | 55.6 | +2.87% | Still uptrend regime after a real cooldown — hold, watch for whether -7.57% from high is the extent of the pullback |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | ASX, CRS, ATEYY, TDY, SDVKY, KLIC | Strong-up/uptrend structure intact despite this week's cooldown |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | BESIY | Thesis intact pullback candidate |
| 🔍 WATCH | AMKR, KMT, KEYS, TER, AMVMF | Mid-pack digestion (TER: confirmed rollover risk); AMVMF's RSI is the book's most oversold but unconfirmed by trend or thesis |
| ⚠️ AVOID | MP, ELMT, WOLF | Downtrend regime (MP) or too-young/deepening (ELMT, WOLF) |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| CRS's cooldown | Still -7.57% from its 52-week high in an uptrend regime — confirm this stays orderly rather than becoming a deeper pullback |
| TER's confirmed rollover | Cross-referenced in the wfe-test-metrology book too — watch whether it follows CAMT into a deeper structural break |
| BESIY's basing | The one thesis-intact pullback name — needs a base before it's more than a watch |
| AMVMF's RSI 29.2 | The book's deepest oversold read, but with a down trend and no thesis rating — needs independent confirmation |
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.