Supply Chain Traces Scan

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Supply Chain Traces Scan

Scan symbols 15
KMTCRSMPTDYWOLFEBESIYATEYYKLICAMKRASXKEYSETERELMTSDVKYAMVMF
Watchlists 1
@supply-chain-traces
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 29 rows · screens, not recommendations

CRS (Carpenter Technology) is the monster — RSI 81.1, +41.6% 30D, +52% 3M, parabolic, only -1.1% from 52wk high. The semiconductor-packaging/back-end cluster is in broad strong uptrends near highs: AMKR (RSI 70.5, +38% 30D), KLIC (RSI 67.3), ASX (RSI 62.5, +85% 3M), BESIY (RSI 59.7, near high), ATEYY (RSI 57.8, near high), TER (RSI 56.8, +12.5% 7D). MP (rare earths) is the lone breakdown — RSI 43.4, -43% from high, downtrend, death cross. WOLF (RSI 54.9, +6499% 1y) carries an extreme alpha but is in pullback (-17.4% 30D). No oversold names; CRS RSI 81 is the only overbought extreme.

Latest bar Thursday 2026-06-18 (Fri 06-19 Juneteenth, closed). Several names 2d stale (06-16/06-17) — flagged inline. BESIY/ATEYY/SDVKY/AMVMF are OTC ADRs.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟠 Broadly strong with one parabolic and one breakdown — CRS parabolic (RSI 81, near high); semi-packaging back-end (AMKR/KLIC/ASX/BESIY/ATEYY/TER) in strong uptrends near highs. MP the lone downtrend
Key insight The agent-trace discoveries are concentrated in the semiconductor back-end/packaging layer, and that layer is running hot near 52wk highs. CRS at RSI 81 is overbought-extreme; MP (rare earths, -43% from high) is the only broken name. No oversold entries

Price Table

Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi% Signal
CRS $575.47 81.1 ↑ +15.7% +4.08% +41.61% +52.25% -1.13% ⚠️ Avoid (06-17, 2d stale)
AMKR $90.46 70.5 +21.0% +6.00% +38.17% +88.14% -6.43% 🔒 Hold
KLIC $116.31 67.3 +9.2% +7.10% +19.35% +74.53% -2.61% 🔒 Hold (06-17, 2d stale)
ASX $40.56 62.5 +8.5% +6.01% +31.30% +85.21% -1.31% 🔒 Hold
BESIY $352.92 59.7 +5.6% +0.21% +18.79% +66.31% -0.53% 🔒 Hold (06-17, 2d stale)
ATEYY $187.43 57.8 +10.2% +5.98% +14.58% +22.45% -1.68% 🔒 Hold (06-17, 2d stale)
TER $409.35 56.8 +8.4% +12.46% +27.55% +36.77% -6.49% 🔒 Hold (06-16, 2d stale)
KMT $36.50 56.5 +6.5% +3.67% +4.52% -2.20% -16.69% 🔒 Hold (06-16, 2d stale)
SDVKY $41.36 55.1 +2.3% +7.14% +6.49% +10.06% -7.12% 🔒 Hold (06-17, 2d stale)
ELMT $19.44 55.0 +7.7% -2.85% +43.68% +8.54% -13.64% 🔍 Watch (too-young)
WOLF $57.41 54.9 +1.2% +15.34% -17.40% +236.52% -44.32% 🔍 Watch
TDY $629.76 53.0 +1.8% +1.04% +1.97% -2.07% -9.18% 🔍 Watch (06-17, 2d stale)
AMVMF $42.88 45.0 -4.4% — -10.72% +15.89% -11.62% 🔍 Watch (06-17, 2d stale)
MP $57.05 43.4 -7.3% +3.22% +0.67% -3.79% -43.09% 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale)

Tier Analysis

Parabolic / Avoid-chase (RSI 81): CRS (RSI 81.1, +41.6% 30D, +52% 3M, parabolic regime, golden cross, -1.1% from 52wk high, alpha1y +104) — Carpenter Technology specialty alloys, the monster of the trace book. Overbought extreme; hold if owned, do not chase a fresh entry here.

Leaders / Hold (RSI 56-71, semi back-end/packaging near highs): AMKR (RSI 70.5, +88% 3M, +90% vs SMA200), KLIC (RSI 67.3, +75% 3M), ASX (RSI 62.5, +85% 3M, -1.3% from high), BESIY (RSI 59.7, -0.53% from high, thesis intact), ATEYY (RSI 57.8, -1.7% from high), TER (RSI 56.8, +12.5% 7D, +37% 3M). The semiconductor packaging/test/assembly layer is the strength — all strong-up, near 52wk highs, but extended.

Constructive / Hold (RSI 53-57): KMT (RSI 56.5, +4.5% 30D, cutting-tools), SDVKY (RSI 55.1, Sandvik tooling), TDY (RSI 53.0, basing). Steady uptrends, not extended.

Pullback / Watch (RSI 43-55): ELMT (RSI 55.0, +43.7% 30D but too-young), WOLF (RSI 54.9, +6499% 1y alpha but -17.4% 30D, -44% from high — extreme runner now pulling back), AMVMF (RSI 45.0, -10.7% 30D, Aixtron-class).

Breakdown / Watch (RSI 43): MP (RSI 43.4, -43% from high, downtrend regime, strong-down, death cross) — the rare-earth name is the lone broken chart in the trace book; -8.4% vs SMA200. Not oversold, but the only downtrend.

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
MP $57.05 43.4 +0.67% Lone downtrend, -43% from high, death cross; rare-earth name needs a trend turn — watch, not a value buy (06-16, 2d stale)
WOLF $57.41 54.9 -17.40% -17.4% 30D pullback off an extreme +236% 3M run; -44% from high; high volatility — watch for stabilization, speculative
TER $409.35 56.8 +27.55% +12.5% 7D, +37% 3M near highs; strong-up but extended at +8.4% vs SMA20 — watch for pullback to SMA20 (06-16, 2d stale)

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD AMKR, KLIC, ASX, BESIY, ATEYY, TER Semi back-end/packaging strong uptrends near 52wk highs
🔒 HOLD KMT, SDVKY, TDY Steady tooling/component uptrends, RSI 53-57
🔍 WATCH WOLF, ELMT, AMVMF Pullbacks/young names; WOLF extreme volatility, speculative
🔍 WATCH MP Lone downtrend, -43% from high, death cross — no floor confirmed
⚠️ AVOID CRS RSI 81 parabolic, -1.1% from high — don't chase fresh entry

What Changed

  • CRS went parabolic — RSI 81.1, +41.6% 30D, +52% 3M, only -1.1% from 52wk high; the monster of the trace book, now overbought-extreme
  • Semi back-end/packaging running near highs — AMKR (+88% 3M), ASX (+85%), KLIC (+75%), BESIY/ATEYY near 52wk highs; the trace cluster's core strength
  • TER accelerating — RSI 56.8, +12.5% 7D, +27.6% 30D into strength
  • MP the lone breakdown — RSI 43.4, -43% from high, downtrend + death cross; rare-earth weakness vs the semi strength
  • WOLF pulling back — +6499% 1y alpha (silicon-carbide squeeze) but -17.4% 30D, -44% from high; the extreme runner cooling
  • No oversold names — lowest RSI is MP 43.4; the book is broadly strong with one parabolic and one downtrend

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
Semi back-end/packaging (AMKR/KLIC/ASX/BESIY/ATEYY) clustered near 52wk highs The agent-trace discoveries converged on the packaging/test layer, and that layer is the market's current strong trade
CRS parabolic RSI 81 vs MP downtrend RSI 43 Specialty-alloy strength (aero/defense) diverging hard from rare-earth weakness — different end-market demand
WOLF +6499% 1y but -44% from high Extreme squeeze names can carry huge trailing alpha while in a 30D/3M pullback — alpha1y is not a current-momentum signal

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Chasing CRS at RSI 81 Parabolic + near high = asymmetric entry risk; hold not add
Buying MP on "rare-earth thesis" Only downtrend in the book, -43% from high, death cross — chart says wait for a turn

Open Questions

  • Is the semi-packaging cluster (AMKR/ASX/KLIC) one correlated AI-back-end trade or independent setups? (treat as correlated risk until confirmed)
  • Does CRS's parabolic move have an order/aero-defense catalyst or is it momentum near highs? (needs event verify — not in this scan)
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Jun 25 ScanSupply Chain Traces Scan Jun 26 ScanSupply Chain Traces Scan Jul 7 ScanSupply Chain Traces Scan Jul 11 ScanSupply Chain Traces Scan Jul 17 ScanSupply Chain Traces Scan Jun 16 ScanSupply Chain Traces Scan Jul 25 ScanSupply Chain Traces Scan Jul 28 ScanSupply Chain Traces Scan Jul 31 ScanSupply Chain Traces Scan Aug 8 ScanSupply Chain Traces Scan

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