Supply Chain Traces Scan
Supply Chain Traces Scan
The agent-traced bottleneck names are strongly bifurcated toward the semiconductor back-end/test/packaging cluster, which is in confirmed uptrend: ATEYY (RSI 65.8 +57% 3M), KLIC (RSI 72.6 +100% 3M, -3% from high), AMKR (RSI 59.7 +92% 3M), ASX (RSI 61.5 +98% 3M), TER (RSI 63.9 +59% 3M, ~at high), KEYS (RSI 56) all carry strong-up trends near highs. CRS (Carpenter superalloy) is the lone EXTENDED name — RSI 79.6, parabolic regime, -1.7% from high. The rare-earth/agro-feeder names diverge: MP (RSI 41.7, down, -44% from high, below SMA200) and AMVMF (RSI 35.7) are the broken/weak side. No name is oversold (<30). The clear read: the back-end semi-equipment trace is the live winner; rare-earth is the broken leg.
Latest bar Thursday 2026-06-25. SDVKY / AMVMF at 06-24 (foreign listing). Note: several names are thin foreign OTC ADRs (ATEYY, BESIY, AMVMF) — trends valid, fills illiquid.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Bifurcated by layer — semi back-end/test/packaging cluster (KLIC, ATEYY, AMKR, ASX, TER, KEYS) in confirmed uptrend near highs; rare-earth (MP) broken; superalloy (CRS) extreme-overbought |
| Key insight | The traced bottleneck that's WINNING is semiconductor back-end (assembly/test/bonding): KLIC +100% 3M, ASX +98%, AMKR +92%, TER +59% all strong-up. CRS at RSI 79.6 parabolic is the EXTENDED/TRIM flag. MP (rare-earth) is the broken leg — down, below SMA200, -44% from high |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | vs SMA20 | 52wkHi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRS | $594.88 | 79.6 ↑ | strong-up | +0.02% | +31.12% | +51.97% | +11.5% | -1.69% | ⚠️ Trim/Avoid (parabolic, extended) |
| KLIC | $129.22 | 72.6 | strong-up | +0.76% | +19.23% | +99.91% | +15.5% | -3.07% | 🔒 Hold (extended) |
| ATEYY | $214.51 | 65.8 | strong-up | -0.22% | +26.84% | +57.51% | +21.0% | -4.66% | 🔒 Hold (foreign/thin) |
| ASX | $42.38 | 61.5 | strong-up | +4.10% | +8.81% | +97.76% | +10.2% | -4.69% | 🔒 Hold |
| AMKR | $86.45 | 59.7 | strong-up | -8.51% | +17.81% | +91.73% | +10.3% | -10.58% | 🔒 Hold |
| KEYS | $360.05 | 56.0 | strong-up | -2.39% | +1.21% | +28.10% | +4.2% | -3.98% | 🔒 Hold |
| KMT | $36.28 | 55.2 | strong-up | -7.27% | -1.79% | +2.43% | +5.8% | -17.19% | 🔒 Hold |
| TER | $471.96 | 63.9 | strong-up | -1.06% | +21.28% | +58.79% | +17.5% | -0.09% | 🔒 Hold (near high) |
| TDY | $627.19 | 53.4 | weak-down | -1.11% | -0.12% | +2.64% | +1.4% | -9.55% | 🔍 Watch (basing) |
| ELMT | $18.58 | 51.5 | neutral | -1.69% | +18.72% | +3.74% | -0.7% | -17.46% | 🔍 Watch (too-young) |
| BESIY | $332.00 | 49.7 | strong-up | -7.62% | -0.86% | +56.86% | -2.7% | -11.31% | 🔍 Watch (foreign/thin, intact) |
| WOLF | $47.79 | 47.4 | neutral | -12.08% | -34.98% | +184.13% | -9.3% | -40.87% | 🔍 Watch (too-young, volatile) |
| SDVKY | $39.61 | 46.2 | weak-down | -5.25% | -4.92% | +10.00% | -2.3% | -11.05% | 🔍 Watch (foreign) |
| MP | $55.69 | 41.7 | down | -5.60% | -16.87% | +7.72% | -8.3% | -44.45% | ❌ Avoid (down, <SMA200) |
| AMVMF | $39.38 | 35.7 | weak-down | -6.98% | -12.49% | +1.49% | -11.0% | -20.00% | 🔍 Watch (thin foreign) |
Tier Analysis
CONFIRMED uptrend / Hold (RSI 56-73, strong-up near highs): KLIC (RSI 72.6, +100% 3M, -3% from high — bonding/back-end, extended), ATEYY (RSI 65.8, +57% 3M, Advantest test, foreign/thin), TER (RSI 63.9, +59% 3M, ~at high — Teradyne test), ASX (RSI 61.5, +98% 3M — assembly/test), AMKR (RSI 59.7, +92% 3M — OSAT packaging), KEYS (RSI 56.0, +28% 3M — test/measurement), KMT (RSI 55.2, strong-up but flat 3M — tooling/tungsten). The semiconductor back-end/test/packaging cluster is the live winning trace — hold, several extended to chase.
Constructive / Watch (RSI 46-53): BESIY (RSI 49.7, +57% 3M, strong-up, thesis intact but -2.7% vs SMA20 — Besi hybrid-bonding, foreign/thin), SDVKY (RSI 46.2, Sandvik tooling, foreign), ELMT (RSI 51.5, too-young, +19% 30D), TDY (RSI 53.4, basing). Holding the trace but near-term flat/digesting.
Broken / Weak — Avoid: MP (RSI 41.7, down trend, below SMA200, -44% from high, +8% 3M — the rare-earth leg is broken; not oversold, just downtrending), AMVMF (RSI 35.7, weak-down, thin foreign). WOLF (RSI 47.4, neutral, too-young, +184% 3M but -35% 30D — extreme volatility, not a clean trend yet).
EXTENDED / Trim: CRS (RSI 79.6, parabolic regime, +31% 30D, -1.7% from high — Carpenter superalloy is the most extended name in the entire batch; chasing here is asymmetric downside).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMKR | $86.45 | 59.7 | +17.81% | Strong-up, -8.5% 7D pullback within trend, -10.6% from high (deepest of the leaders); +77% vs SMA200. Watch for SMA20 hold ($78) — the buyable pullback in the cluster |
| BESIY | $332.00 | 49.7 | -0.86% | Strong-up, thesis intact, flat near SMA20, -11% from high; hybrid-bonding bottleneck. Foreign/thin — entry on US-listed proxies preferred |
| KMT | $36.28 | 55.2 | -1.79% | Strong-up but -17% from high, flat 3M; tooling/tungsten feeder. Lower-beta; watch for trend re-acceleration |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | KLIC, ATEYY, TER, ASX, AMKR, KEYS, KMT | Strong-up back-end/test/packaging cluster near highs — the live winning trace |
| 🔍 WATCH | BESIY, SDVKY, ELMT, TDY, WOLF | Constructive/digesting; BESIY intact (foreign/thin), WOLF too-volatile |
| ❌ AVOID | MP | Down trend, below SMA200, -44% from high — rare-earth leg broken |
| ⚠️ TRIM/AVOID | CRS | RSI 79.6 parabolic, -1.7% from high — most extended in batch, don't chase |
What Changed
- Semi back-end/test cluster is the live winner — KLIC (+100% 3M), ASX (+98%), AMKR (+92%), TER (+59%), ATEYY (+57%) all strong-up near highs; the traced bottleneck that's paying off
- CRS went parabolic — RSI 79.6, +31% 30D, -1.7% from high; Carpenter superalloy is the single most extended name in the F-batch
- MP (rare-earth) is the broken leg — down trend, below SMA200, -44% from high; rare-earth diverging hard from the semi-equipment trace
- TER ~at its high — RSI 63.9, -0.09% from 52wk high, +21% 30D; Teradyne test leading
- WOLF whipsaw — +184% 3M but -35% 30D, neutral/too-young; extreme volatility, not a clean trace yet
- No oversold names — lowest RSI is AMVMF 35.7 (thin foreign); MP at 41.7 is the broken-trend caution, not a value buy
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Semi back-end/test/packaging (KLIC/ASX/AMKR/TER/ATEYY) all +57–100% 3M, strong-up near highs | The traced bottleneck that's working is assembly/test/bonding — the back-end is the convergence layer, not the front-end |
| MP (rare-earth) broken (down, <SMA200, -44% from high) while the semi cluster runs | The rare-earth leg of the trace has decoupled — broken trend, not a dip; don't anchor the whole trace on it |
| CRS parabolic at RSI 79.6, -1.7% from high | Superalloy feeder is the most extended — convergence already priced; chasing is asymmetric |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Buying MP as the "rare-earth bottleneck dip" | Down trend, below SMA200, -44% from high — broken leg, not oversold-quality |
| Chasing CRS at RSI 79.6 | Parabolic regime, -1.7% from high — the trace converged, no margin of safety |
| Treating thin foreign ADRs (ATEYY/BESIY/AMVMF) as easily fillable | Valid trends but illiquid; prefer US-listed proxies (AMKR/ASX/TER) for actual entries |
Open Questions
- Is the back-end cluster's strength order-cycle-driven (AI packaging demand) or a re-rate that's now priced? (event verify — not in this scan)
- Did MP's break below SMA200 coincide with a rare-earth pricing/policy catalyst? (needs verify)
- Does AMKR's -10.6% from high (deepest of the leaders) set up the cleanest cluster entry, or signal back-end demand softening? (watch SMA20)
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.