Supply Chain Traces Scan
Supply Chain Traces Scan
This 15-name book split roughly in half this cycle — 6 gained RSI, 9 lost, led down by ALM's 13.2-point drop on a -6.52% single day and -11.84% week with no confirmed cause on file. The semicap subset (KLIC, AMKR, KEYS, TER) kept climbing, all four still solidly above 47 RSI on positive alpha. WOLF and MP remain the two names where every horizon agrees on real damage — both below their 200-day with negative alpha1y — joined this cycle by TDY, now the weakest reading in the book at RSI 35.5.
Data as-of the 2026-09-11 close for all 15 names. AMVMF was retired from this book on September 10 as a thin OTC proxy (empty history periods; user policy) — a policy retirement, not a trading signal. Comparison baseline is the September 4 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 A split cycle — 6 of 15 names gained RSI, 9 lost — with the semicap subset (KLIC, AMKR, KEYS, TER) the clear source of the gains |
| Leaders | KEYS (RSI 56.8), ASX (55.1), TER (53.1) — all above their 200-day with strongly positive alpha |
| Laggards | CRS (30.1) and TDY (35.5) hold the lowest readings; TDY's alpha1y is negative despite a still-positive headline 1-year return |
| Real breakdown | WOLF (-80.81% 1y, -97.03 alpha) and MP (-19.86% 1y, -36.08 alpha) remain the two names where every horizon agrees on damage; TDY is a smaller-scale version of the same pattern |
What's Going On
The semicap-adjacent names in this book kept extending last cycle's bounce: KLIC gained 8.4 RSI points (40.2 → 48.6), AMKR gained 8.2 (41.3 → 49.5), KEYS gained 6.5 (50.3 → 56.8), and TER gained 6.2 (46.9 → 53.1). All four remain solidly positive on alpha1y (KLIC +104.51, AMKR +87.6, KEYS +80.24, TER +212.37), which continues to argue these are pullbacks inside intact multi-year trends. AMKR still sits 8.4% below its 200-day even after the gain, but its alpha1y is strongly positive — trend under test, not broken.
ALM was this cycle's sharpest decliner — RSI fell 13.2 points (56.8 → 43.6) on a -6.52% single-day move and a -11.84% week. Its news receipt on file is stale (fetched August 3, predating this drop by more than a month, and covering a voluntary TSX delisting announcement unrelated in timing) — no cause is confirmed for this week's decline; this is "news not pulled for this move," not evidence of no cause. ALM remains solidly positive over the trailing year (+241.19%, alpha1y +224.97), so this reads as a sharp pullback inside an otherwise intact trend rather than a fresh break, pending confirmation.
MP and WOLF remain the two names in this book where the horizon check gives no cover. MP is down 19.86% over the trailing year with an alpha1y of -36.08, sits 12.2% below its 200-day, and its RSI cooled again this cycle (50.5 → 41.7). WOLF is down 80.81% over the trailing year with an alpha1y of -97.03 and sits 10.7% below its 200-day, even after RSI cooled to 44.4 from 49.7. TDY has now joined the same shape at a smaller scale: its headline trailing-year return is barely positive (+6.66%) but its alpha1y is negative (-9.56) and it sits 2% below its 200-day — real, if mild, underperformance behind a chart that reads flat rather than broken, and it's now the second-lowest RSI in the book.
CRS holds the lowest RSI in the book (30.1, down from 38.1 last cycle) but remains positive on both the trailing year (+82.25%) and alpha (+66.03) — a deep pullback inside an intact trend, not a breakdown, on the horizon evidence alone.
What Changed Since September 4
- AMVMF retired from this book on September 10 — thin OTC proxy policy (empty history periods every night), not a trading signal.
- ALM: RSI 56.8 → 43.6 (-13.2), the sharpest decline in the book this cycle; no confirmed cause on file for the drop.
- MP: RSI 50.5 → 41.7 (-8.8), continuing its long-horizon deterioration; KMT: RSI 50.0 → 41.8 (-8.2).
- CRS: RSI 38.1 → 30.1 (-8.0), now the lowest reading in the book, though still positive on trailing-year and alpha.
- SDVKY: RSI 58.2 → 51.5 (-6.7); WOLF: RSI 49.7 → 44.4 (-5.3); ATEYY: RSI 54.3 → 49.0 (-5.3).
- KLIC: RSI 40.2 → 48.6 (+8.4), the largest gain; AMKR: RSI 41.3 → 49.5 (+8.2); KEYS: RSI 50.3 → 56.8 (+6.5); TER: RSI 46.9 → 53.1 (+6.2); ASX: RSI 49.8 → 55.1 (+5.3).
- TDY: RSI 34.2 → 35.5 (+1.3), a slight gain but the alpha1y-negative pattern flagged last cycle persists — now the second-lowest reading in the book.
How To Read The Board
This book's semicap subset is the clean story this cycle — KLIC, AMKR, KEYS, TER all gained RSI and remain strongly positive on alpha. ALM's sharp single-day drop has no confirmed driver yet and shouldn't be read as a resolved thesis break given its still-strong trailing-year backing. WOLF and MP remain the names where every horizon agrees on real damage, and TDY is now showing the same shape at a smaller scale — worth tracking as an earlier-stage version rather than dismissing because its headline number still looks flat. CRS's low RSI reads as a deep pullback, not a breakdown, on the trailing-year evidence.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEYS | $338.64 | 56.8 | $327.63 | +3.4% | +3.49% | -4.47% | uptrend |
| ASX | $39.47 | 55.1 | $37.93 | +4.1% | +5.23% | +0.48% | pullback |
| TER | $379.72 | 53.1 | $372.72 | +1.9% | +6.36% | -5.72% | pullback |
| SDVKY | $39.87 | 51.5 | $39.78 | +0.2% | -2.23% | +4.65% | uptrend (research-only) |
| AMKR | $51.73 | 49.5 | $50.50 | +2.4% | +8.29% | -6.94% | collapse (below 200-day, alpha1y +87.6) |
| ATEYY | $209.08 | 49.0 | $217.19 | -3.7% | -3.91% | -6.15% | pullback (research-only) |
| KLIC | $86.13 | 48.6 | $85.11 | +1.2% | +5.54% | -9.48% | pullback (thesis: intact-but-priced) |
| ELMT | $16.19 | 46.9 | $17.22 | -6.0% | -3.52% | -4.37% | too-young |
| WOLF | $25.92 | 44.4 | $27.60 | -6.1% | -8.57% | -18.26% | collapse (below 200-day, negative 1y and alpha) |
| ALM | $15.49 | 43.6 | $17.49 | -11.5% | -11.84% | +7.79% | pullback (sharpest decline this cycle, no confirmed cause) |
| KMT | $29.44 | 41.8 | $29.98 | -1.8% | -5.09% | -4.35% | downtrend |
| MP | $50.51 | 41.7 | $56.04 | -9.9% | -7.37% | -6.65% | collapse (below 200-day, negative 1y and alpha) |
| BESIY | $218.83 | 38.6 | $234.58 | -6.7% | -4.09% | -18.4% | collapse (research-only, below 200-day, thesis: intact) |
| TDY | $603.79 | 35.5 | $626.19 | -3.6% | -1.12% | -12.05% | basing (alpha1y negative despite positive 1y) |
| CRS | $443.19 | 30.1 | $484.30 | -8.5% | -6.76% | -16.16% | pullback (lowest reading, still positive 1y and alpha) |
Tier Analysis
Tier A — RSI 50+ (4): KEYS, ASX, TER, SDVKY.
Tier B — Mid-book, RSI 45-50 (4): AMKR (below 200-day, alpha positive), ATEYY, KLIC (thesis intact-but-priced), ELMT (too-young).
Tier C — Cooling, RSI 38-45 (4): WOLF (real breakdown), ALM (unconfirmed cause), KMT, MP (real breakdown).
Tier D — Weakest, RSI <38 (3): BESIY (thesis intact), TDY (negative alpha despite positive 1y), CRS (positive on horizon despite lowest RSI).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRS | $443.19 | 30.1 | -16.16% | Lowest RSI in the book but still strongly positive on trailing-year and alpha — a deep pullback, not a breakdown, on the horizon evidence |
| KLIC, AMKR, KEYS, TER | — | 48-57 | mixed | The semicap subset gained the most RSI this cycle and all four remain strongly positive on alpha |
| TDY | $603.79 | 35.5 | -12.05% | Second-lowest reading; alpha1y negative behind a still-positive headline 1-year return — the earlier-stage version of the WOLF/MP pattern |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | KEYS, ASX, TER, SDVKY | RSI 50+ with strongly positive trailing-year gains |
| 🔍 RESEARCH | KLIC, AMKR | Semicap subset's biggest gainers this cycle, both still positive on alpha despite sitting below (AMKR) or near their 200-day |
| ⚠️ AVOID | WOLF, MP | The two names where the week, the year, alpha, and 200-day position all agree on real damage |
| 🔍 WATCH | TDY, ALM | TDY's negative alpha1y is the earlier-stage version of the WOLF/MP pattern; ALM's sharp drop has no confirmed cause yet |
| 🔍 DATA CAVEAT | ALM | Sharpest RSI decline in the book this cycle with a stale news receipt — no cause confirmed |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| ALM's next print or news pull | Sharpest decline in the book this cycle with no confirmed cause; the desk has not pulled fresh news on this move |
| Whether the semicap subset's gains hold on continued volume | KLIC, AMKR, KEYS, TER all gained RSI this cycle |
| MP and WOLF's next print | Both remain genuinely negative on trailing-year and alpha regardless of this cycle's direction |
| TDY's alpha1y | Now the book's second-lowest RSI with a negative alpha behind a still-positive headline return |
| CRS's next few sessions | Lowest RSI in the book but the trailing-year and alpha backing argue this is a pullback, not a breakdown |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year, SMA200, volume): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-11 close — supply-chain-traces.
- ALM news receipt (stale, fetched 2026-08-03, predates this week's move): latest.
- AMVMF retirement: watchlist changelog, 2026-09-10 (thin OTC proxy policy).
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.