Almonty Industries jumped 10.65% today with no dated cause on file — the tungsten offtake deal and convertible raise from over a week ago finally showed up in the price, or the market moved on something the news receipts haven't caught. Kennametal posted the book's largest RSI gain, up 9.5 points to 56.9, also unexplained. Teledyne gave back its 200-day reclaim, the same reversal flagged in the drone-defense book, and Carpenter Technology's capitulation reading eased slightly without resolving.

Numbers are the settled September 25 close for all 12 names; ELMT still carries no 200-day or trailing-year comparison (too-young regime). Comparison baseline is the September 23 scan.

Almonty Industries is the day's biggest surprise. It rose 10.65% today with nothing new in its news receipt (last pulled September 22, still centered on the September 17 tungsten offtake deal and the oversubscribed $800 million convertible raise reported that week). Last scan the stock fell despite that same news; this scan it rose sharply with nothing fresher on file. Either the market is now pricing in news that is over a week old, or something else moved it — the receipts don't say which.

Kennametal posted the largest RSI gain in the book, up 9.5 points to 56.9, on a 3.19% single-day move. Its news receipt is the stalest in this book (last pulled June 21, over three months old), so nothing on file explains either the gain or the move.

Teledyne lost the 200-day reclaim flagged two scans ago. Its RSI fell 4.5 points to 47.6, the largest decline here, and its position relative to the 200-day slipped back to -1.1% from +0.1% — the same reversal recorded in the drone-defense book, since Teledyne sits in both.

Carpenter Technology's capitulation reading eased without resolving. Its RSI rose from 21.2 to 24.5 while its price ticked up modestly to $396.84 from $395.03 — a small stabilization, not a reclaim. It remains 9.7% below its 200-day with trailing-year alpha still strongly positive at +53.54, the same trend-under-test condition flagged for two scans running. Its news pull, refreshed today, still returns nothing newer than the July 30 earnings report — a fresh pull confirming there is genuinely no dated news behind the move.

• 9 of 12 names gained RSI: KMT (+9.5, the largest), CRS (+3.3), MP (+0.1), WOLF (+1.4), AMKR (+0.4), ASX (+0.2), KEYS (+3.6), TER (+2.2), ALM (+3.4).
• TDY: RSI 52.1 → 47.6 (-4.5), the largest decline, and its 200-day position flipped from +0.1% (reclaimed) back to -1.1% — a reversal. ELMT: RSI 57.5 → 53.5 (-4.0), continuing the unwind from its unexplained spike.
• The below-200-day group grew back to seven of 11 names with data (KMT, CRS, MP, TDY, WOLF, AMKR, ALM), from six, as Teledyne's reclaim reversed.
• The negative-alpha trio held at three names for a fourth consecutive scan: WOLF (-96.47), MP (-53.91), TDY (-8.71) — the same three, with WOLF's reading essentially flat and MP's worsening slightly from -50.32.
• ALM's alpha improved to +125.61 from +113.14 despite the stock's earlier weakness, ahead of today's 10.65% jump.

The semiconductor-adjacent five — ASX, Keysight, Teradyne, Amkor, Kulicke & Soffa — all still carry positive trailing-year alpha, and four of the five gained RSI again this scan. Amkor remains the one still below its 200-day (-6.1%), reading as trend under test given its alpha of +66.63.

The negative-alpha trio is unchanged for a fourth scan: Wolfspeed and MP Materials still fail on every window at once, and Teledyne's reversal this scan makes its case worse, not better — a chart that briefly repaired and immediately gave the repair back, with trailing-year alpha still negative at -8.71 throughout.

Carpenter and Almonty are the two names worth separating from the rest. Carpenter's easing RSI without a 200-day reclaim keeps the pullback read alive but unconfirmed. Almonty's price finally moved in the direction its dated news suggested it should have — over a week after that news landed — which argues for patience on names where real, positive news doesn't move the price immediately.

Capitulation (RSI below 25) — 1 name: CRS (24.5). Improved from 21.2 last scan but has not reclaimed its 200-day. Trailing-year alpha remains strongly positive (+53.54), keeping this a deep pullback rather than a confirmed breakdown.

Oversold (RSI 25-40): none this scan.

Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — 11 names: KEYS (66.3), ASX (64.1), TER (58.1), KLIC (58.1), WOLF (51.8), KMT (56.9), AMKR (54.6), TDY (47.6), ELMT (53.5), ALM (42.5), MP (42.3). MP Materials and Almonty sit at the bottom of this tier but are broken on trailing-year alpha (MP) or moved sharply with no cause on file (ALM) — neither reading is a discount.

• Does Almonty's jump hold, or does it give back today's move the way Elmet gave back its earlier spike?
• Does Carpenter ever reclaim its 200-day, or does the gap persist through another scan?
• What is driving Kennametal's RSI surge, with a three-month-stale news receipt showing nothing?

• Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-25 close — supply-chain-traces.
• Almonty news receipt (pull completed 2026-09-22; Sept 17 Sandvik tungsten offtake deal, $800M convertible offering, nothing newer): latest.
• Kennametal news receipt (stale, last completed pull 2026-06-21): latest.
• Carpenter news receipt (fresh pull 2026-09-25, newest article still 2026-07-30): latest.
• Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-23-supply-chain-traces.