Supply Chain Traces Scan
Supply Chain Traces Scan
The book broke in a week: 11 of 12 names fell, none rose on Friday, and three names that held their 200-days a week ago (Teradyne, Kulicke & Soffa, Wolfspeed) crossed under. Only Keysight (6.6% above) and ASE Technology (22.9% above) still hold the line. Teradyne lost an 18.2% cushion in five sessions (-19.29% week), Wolfspeed fell 24.14% to 22.7% under its line, and Amkor's gap widened again to 27.5%. Teledyne, the only name up on the week (+0.81%), sits on its 200-day with negative alpha.
Numbers are the settled October 16 close for all 12 names (Friday); 7D is the five sessions since the October 9 close. Elmet Group (ELMT) is too young for a 200-day or trailing-year comparison. Wolfspeed's one-year figure is post-reorganization. Comparison baseline is the October 9 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 1 of 12 up on the week (from 0); 0 of 12 up on Friday (from 8 green); 9 of 11 names with a 200-day under it (from 6); 11 of 12 under their 20-day; 4 of 11 with negative trailing-year alpha (from 3); nothing under RSI 25 or at 70 or higher |
| Leaders | Teledyne (RSI 53.2, +0.81% week), Kennametal (46.7, -3.54%), Elmet (46.1), ASE Technology (38.6, 22.9% above its 200-day), Wolfspeed (37.6) |
| Laggards | Almonty (RSI 27, -17.19% week, 37.9% under its 200-day), Carpenter (28.8), Amkor (30), MP Materials (32.2), Teradyne (33.1) |
| The horizon check | Above the 200-day: Keysight (+6.6%, +103.93% year), ASE (+22.9%, +214.23%). Under it with positive alpha: Teradyne, Kulicke & Soffa, Amkor, Carpenter, Kennametal. Negative alpha: MP (-67.62), Wolfspeed (-43.95), Teledyne (-5.36), Almonty (-0.02, new) |
| Caveat | The same cohort backdrop as the rest of the week: Bloomberg called it the S&P 500's worst week since June, with AI fears hitting chipmakers and a crude spike (October 16). Wolfspeed's $1.5 billion loan story from October 8 still rests on X posts; an October 14 aggregator item mentions it, and no company release is on file. News pulls for the semiconductor names date from October 9 to 15, before Friday's session, and no event for this list is dated October 16. Friday's moves (Wolfspeed -10.38%, ASE -5.63%, Kulicke & Soffa -5.32%) are cause not checked |
What's Going On
The semiconductor half gave back its remaining ground. Teradyne closed at 325 (RSI 33.1, -5.31% Friday), 17.8% under its 20-day and 5.7% under its 200-day (344.71), after sitting 18.2% above that line a week ago. Kulicke & Soffa (-14.54% week) went from 9.2% above its line to 7.8% under (85.24), and Keysight (-13.47%) fell from a breakout reading at RSI 66.6 to 37.1. Both Teradyne and Kulicke & Soffa keep large years (+133.31% and +97.86%) and positive alpha, so these are trends under test; Kulicke & Soffa's thesis rating is intact but priced. Teradyne's own release (October 13) sets its third-quarter report for October 27 after the close, replacing the October 21 provider estimate, so the stock arrives at its line ahead of the print.
Wolfspeed is the week's wreck. It fell 24.14% to 23.22 (-10.38% Friday on 0.86 times normal volume), now 22.7% under its 200-day (30.05) from 2.6% above, with a -28.42% year, alpha -43.95 and 71.27% off its high. The conditional federal loan commitment reported on October 8 gave it a rebound that did not survive the week; no company release is on file, and Friday's drop is cause not checked.
Amkor is the structural change that continued. Its gap to the 200-day (57.7) widened from -14.7% to -27.5%, its year shrank from 60.37% to +32.76% and alpha from 44.36 to 17.23, and it is 56.74% off its high at RSI 30 with no support shelf on file. It is still a positive-year name, but the line is far away. It reports October 26.
The materials names did not rescue the book. Almonty fell 17.19% (27.02% on the month) to 37.9% under its 200-day, from 24.9% under, and its alpha slipped to -0.02: the October 9 label of a trend under test no longer fits on the long window. MP Materials (-12.94%, -52.09% year) still fails every window. Carpenter (-2.26% week, RSI 28.8) and Kennametal (-3.54%) were the shallowest decliners and keep positive alpha (42.83 and 22.97); both are 11% to 15% under their lines. Keysight and ASE hold above theirs, but ASE's cushion shrank from 47.6% to 22.9% and its year from 296.5% to +214.23%; it closed just above its 38.28 shelf.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
- Breadth: 1 of 12 up on the week (Teledyne), versus 0 of 12. Friday was 0 green, versus 8.
- Under the 200-day: 9 of 11, versus 6 of 11. Teradyne, Kulicke & Soffa and Wolfspeed are new to it; every gap widened except Teledyne's.
- Negative alpha: four (MP, WOLF, TDY, ALM) versus three; Almonty joined.
- RSI: only Teledyne (53.2), Kennametal (46.7) and Elmet (46.1) are at 40 or higher; nine names sit in 25-40, versus two on October 9. Keysight fell from 66.6 to 37.1 and ASE from 62.3 to 38.6.
- Distance from highs: Keysight went from 1.84% to 15.06% below, ASE from 3.13% to 17.53%.
- Under the 20-day: 11 of 12.
How To Read The Board
Keysight and ASE are deep pullbacks in intact trends, not breakdowns: both are above the 200-day with years of +103.93% and +214.23%. Teradyne, Kulicke & Soffa, Amkor, Carpenter and Kennametal are trends under test: positive years, positive alpha, under the line. Wolfspeed, MP Materials and Teledyne fail the long window with negative alpha, and Almonty has just joined them: alpha -0.02, 37.9% under its line. A low RSI on those four is damage, not discount.
Source limits: price and RSI against moving averages; no filings reviewed, no estimates. ASE Technology (ASX) is an ADR with normal trade access per the symbol registry. Almonty trades on the Nasdaq Capital Market; Elmet is too young to read.
Price Table
Rows are ordered by RSI, highest first. Tape cells are live values for the October 16 close; the Signal column is a read of the tape.
| Stock | As of | Price ($) | RSI | SMA20 ($) | vs SMA20 (%) | 7D (%) | 30D (%) | 1Y (%) | vs SMA200 (%) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TDY | 2026-10-16 | 618.6 | 53.2 | 612.95 | 0.9 | 0.81 | 2.91 | 10.17 | -1.6 | 🟡 only name up on the week; on its 200-day; negative alpha |
| KMT | 2026-10-16 | 30.79 | 46.7 | 31.29 | -1.6 | -3.54 | 3.67 | 38.51 | -11.1 | 🟡 shallowest decline; under 200-day; positive alpha |
| ELMT | 2026-10-16 | 18.93 | 46.1 | 20.5 | -7.7 | -10.37 | -4.59 | n/a | n/a | 🟡 too young: no 200-day |
| ASX | 2026-10-16 | 39.53 | 38.6 | 44.95 | -12.1 | -14.86 | 4.16 | 214.23 | 22.9 | 🟡 deep pullback above 200-day; sitting on a shelf |
| WOLF | 2026-10-16 | 23.22 | 37.6 | 28.78 | -19.3 | -24.14 | -1.9 | -28.42 | -22.7 | 🔴 crossed under 200-day; alpha negative |
| KEYS | 2026-10-16 | 331.21 | 37.1 | 364.76 | -9.2 | -13.47 | 2.85 | 103.93 | 6.6 | 🟡 breakout reading gone; above 200-day |
| KLIC | 2026-10-16 | 78.63 | 33.7 | 90.91 | -13.5 | -14.54 | -1.16 | 97.86 | -7.8 | 🟡 crossed under 200-day; intact-but-priced |
| TER | 2026-10-16 | 325 | 33.1 | 395.27 | -17.8 | -19.29 | -4.73 | 133.31 | -5.7 | 🟡 crossed under 200-day; positive alpha |
| MP | 2026-10-16 | 40.17 | 32.2 | 46.09 | -12.8 | -12.94 | -18 | -52.09 | -28.6 | 🔴 fails every long window |
| AMKR | 2026-10-16 | 41.82 | 30 | 51.09 | -18.1 | -14.86 | -9.64 | 32.76 | -27.5 | 🟡 long trend under real test; gap widening |
| CRS | 2026-10-16 | 377.09 | 28.8 | 389.04 | -3.1 | -2.26 | -8.43 | 58.36 | -15.1 | 🟡 under 200-day; positive alpha |
| ALM | 2026-10-16 | 9.83 | 27 | 12.46 | -21.1 | -17.19 | -27.02 | 15.51 | -37.9 | 🔴 alpha lost; gap widening |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): none.
Oversold (RSI 25-40) — 9 names: ALM (27), CRS (28.8), AMKR (30), MP Materials (32.2), Teradyne (33.1), Kulicke & Soffa (33.7), Keysight (37.1), Wolfspeed (37.6), ASE (38.6). Keysight and ASE are above their 200-days; Teradyne, Kulicke & Soffa, Amkor and Carpenter are under with positive alpha; MP, Wolfspeed and Almonty fail the long window.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — 3 names: Teledyne (53.2), Kennametal (46.7), Elmet (46.1).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| KEYS | A hold of the 318.44 shelf just under the close; the 200-day (310.79) is the line; reclaim of the 20-day (364.76) to confirm | +103.93% year, 6.6% above the line; breakout reading gone |
| ASX | A hold of the 38.28 shelf, then the 200-day (32.16) | +214.23% year; the only name with a cushion over 20% |
| TER | The 304.54 shelf, or a held close back above the 200-day (344.71) | +133.31% year, alpha 117.78; report scheduled October 27 (company) |
| KLIC | The 66.51 shelf, or a held close above the 200-day (85.24) | Intact but priced; +97.86% year, alpha 82.33 |
| AMKR, CRS, KMT | Held closes above the 200-days (57.7, 444.33, 34.65); Carpenter shelf 323.66, Kennametal shelf 29.53 and 34.53 pivot | Positive alpha; Amkor has no shelf on file; Carpenter reports October 22, Amkor October 26 |
| WOLF, MP, TDY, ALM | None | Negative alpha; Teledyne's 24-week base pivot is 697.67, far above the 200-day (628.51) |
| ELMT | None | No long-window history yet |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| KEYS, ASX | 🟡 Deep pullback above the 200-day | 🔍 Watch | Flag stage after 13% to 15% weeks; the line is the test |
| TER, KLIC | 🟡 Just crossed under, positive alpha | 🔍 Watch | Teradyne reports October 27; 5.7% and 7.8% under their lines |
| AMKR, CRS, KMT | 🟡 Under the line, positive alpha | 🔍 Watch | Amkor 27.5% under and widening; Carpenter and Kennametal shallow |
| TDY | 🟡 On its line, alpha negative | ⚠️ Avoid | Only name up on the week; fails the year |
| ALM | 🔴 Alpha lost | ⚠️ Avoid | 37.9% under its line; -17.19% week |
| WOLF, MP | 🔴 Fails every long window | ❌ Don't buy | Wolfspeed -28.42% year; MP -52.09% |
| ELMT | 🟡 Too young | 🔍 Watch | No history for a 200-day or alpha |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Teradyne at its 200-day (344.71), report October 27 after the close | It crossed under this week; the call is October 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET (company) |
| Keysight at 310.79 and ASE at 38.28 | The two names still above their lines hold them or the book has none |
| Amkor's gap (27.5% under) | A third widening week would turn "long trend under test" into a question of the year |
| Wolfspeed loan paperwork | A company release or filing would be the first confirmed item; the stock fell 24.14% regardless |
| Scheduled reports: Carpenter October 22, Amkor October 26, ASE October 29, Wolfspeed and Kennametal November 4, Almonty November 6, Kulicke & Soffa November 18 (provider estimates; Teradyne is company-set) | Dated tests for names under their lines |
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position, support shelves, base pivots): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-10-16 close — supply-chain-traces.
- Friday backdrop: Bloomberg, October 16 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-16/s-p-500-steady-as-warsh-boosts-expectations-of-rate-hold (capture 2026-10-16-bloomberg-s-p-500-suffers-worst-week-since-june-as-ai-fears-hit-chipma-tmzzr4t96osi00).
- Teradyne report date: company release, October 13 (news check latest, fetched 2026-10-16 UTC); superseded provider row 2026-10-21-ter-earnings, active row
2026-10-27-ter-earnings.md. - Wolfspeed loan commitment (X relay, October 8): https://x.com/ConnorJBates_/status/2108175441106501689 and https://x.com/Kaizen_Investor/status/2108182479412564115; aggregator mention October 14 in latest.
- Cause checks for October 12-16: news checks under stocks<SYM>/news/latest.json
(WOLF 2026-10-14, KLIC 2026-10-14, TER 2026-10-16, AMKR 2026-10-09, KEYS 2026-08-23, CRS 2026-09-25, ALM 2026-09-25, MP 2026-08-28, KMT and ASX older),research/stock-events/(no event dated 2026-10-12 through 2026-10-16 for this list), andresearch/capture/` searched by company name. - Tradability and exchanges: _securities (ASX ADR, normal) and provider info files stocks{ALM,ELMT}/info.json`.
- Scheduled reports:
research/stock-events/rows for CRS, AMKR, ASX, WOLF, KMT, ALM, KLIC, TDY (provider estimates). - Prior scan for comparison: 2026-10-09-supply-chain-traces.
Related
10 eventsSource links
Tweets, videos, filings, articles, and source pages tied to this read.