Supply Chain Traces Scan
Supply Chain Traces Scan
Elmet Group ran 41.94% in a week with nothing on file to explain it — the largest single-name move this book has produced, taking RSI from 46.9 to 68.2 and the month to +33.68%. At the other end, Carpenter Technology fell into capitulation territory at RSI 23.8, the lowest reading here since the desk started tracking this book, on a -7.91% week and a -19.97% month. Both are outliers inside a split tape: five names gained RSI and seven lost, but nine of 12 closed green on Friday as the semiconductor-adjacent names caught the same bid that lifted optics. Wolfspeed and MP Materials remain the two names where the week, the year and the 200-day all agree on real damage; Teledyne is the quieter third.
Numbers are the settled September 18 close for all 12 names; ELMT carries no 200-day or trailing-year comparison (too-young). The book is three names smaller than the September 11 edition — BESIY, ATEYY and SDVKY left the nightly settled price run on September 12 as untradeable listings, a coverage decision rather than a trading signal. Friday was quarterly options expiry, so relative-volume readings are inflated. Comparison baseline is the September 11 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 A split week — 5 of 12 gained RSI, 7 lost — but 9 of 12 closed green Friday on the semiconductor bid |
| Leaders | ELMT (RSI 68.2, +41.94% week, no cause on file), ASX (61.2, +5.47%), KEYS (54.5), TER (52.4) |
| Laggards | CRS (RSI 23.8, capitulation territory), MP (35.6), ALM (38.7, -10.65% week), TDY (38.2) |
| Real damage | WOLF (-85.52% over the trailing year, alpha -100.53) and MP (-34.48%, alpha -49.49) remain the two genuinely broken names; TDY is the milder third (alpha -7.76) |
| Caveat | The two largest weekly moves — ELMT up 41.94% and ALM down 10.65% — have no dated driver on file. ASX's news pull is more than two months stale |
What's Going On
Elmet Group is the week. It rose 41.94%, closed 27.5% above its 20-day average, and took RSI from 46.9 to 68.2 — the only reading in this book above 62. Its news pull completed early on September 18 and returns stock-overview pages plus a second-quarter results release dated September 8, which predates the move window entirely. No event exists for the name in the desk's record this month, and its next scheduled print is November 16. The size of the move is real; the reason for it is not established. The name also carries a too-young regime, meaning there is no 200-day average or trailing-year return to check the move against — the two tests that would normally tell a breakout from a squeeze are both unavailable here.
Carpenter Technology went the other direction into genuinely oversold territory: RSI 23.8, down from 30.1, on a -7.91% week and a -19.97% month, now 10.6% below its 20-day and 6.7% below its 200-day. Its news pull completed September 17 and contains a MarketBeat piece that asks why the stock declined and answers with "earnings concerns and market sentiment" — no dated event — alongside an investor-relations page naming a quarterly dividend, a new board member and an additional $1.0 billion share repurchase authorization. None of those items carries a date in the receipt, so the week stays unattributed. The horizon check still favors Carpenter: up 65.4% over the trailing year with alpha of +50.39. That combination — a capitulation-level RSI against a strongly positive year — is a deep pullback, though the loss of its 200-day this week means the long trend is now under test rather than comfortably intact.
Friday belonged to the semiconductor-adjacent half. Wolfspeed rose 7.79%, Teradyne 5.19%, Amkor 4.90%, ASE 4.10% and Elmet 4.60% on the same session the S&P 500 proxy closed down 0.12%. MarketWatch reported on September 17 that chip stocks were extending a comeback as fears of an AI spending slowdown and of the Federal Reserve's Wednesday quarter-point hike subsided; Friday extended that into this book. Wolfspeed's 7.79% day is worth naming precisely because it changes nothing structural — the stock is still down 85.52% over the trailing year with alpha of -100.53 and sits 87.84% below its 52-week high.
Almonty fell 10.65% on the week, the sharpest decline here, taking RSI from 43.6 to 38.7 and putting it 18.4% below its 20-day. Its news pull completed September 17 and now carries the second-quarter detail the desk lacked last scan: earnings per share of $0.45 against a $0.07 consensus, but revenue of $31.05 million against a $45.70 million expectation, plus an August 17 $300 million buyback authorization and commentary that the stock slid despite the buyback because management gave no forward profit guidance. That is context, not a dated cause for this week — the items carry no date in the receipt and the results predate the window. Almonty remains up 179.03% over the trailing year with alpha of +164.02.
What Changed Since September 11
- The book is three names smaller: BESIY, ATEYY and SDVKY left the settled price run on September 12 as untradeable listings.
- ELMT: RSI 46.9 → 68.2 (+21.3), by far the largest move ever recorded in this book, on a +41.94% week; no dated driver on file.
- ASX: RSI 55.1 → 61.2 (+6.1), now the book's second-highest reading, up 16.74% on the month and 42.5% above its 200-day.
- KMT: RSI 41.8 → 45.0 (+3.2); TDY 35.5 → 38.2 (+2.7); WOLF 44.4 → 46.1 (+1.7).
- CRS: RSI 30.1 → 23.8 (-6.3), into capitulation territory, and — the change that matters — it lost its 200-day this week, now 6.7% below it.
- MP: RSI 41.7 → 35.6 (-6.1), continuing a deterioration visible in every window; ALM 43.6 → 38.7 (-4.9); KEYS 56.8 → 54.5 (-2.3); KLIC 48.6 → 46.8 (-1.8).
- Last scan's open question on Almonty is partly answered: the news pull now carries the Q2 revenue miss against consensus and the no-guidance commentary, though still nothing dated to this week's decline.
- The negative-alpha group narrowed to three names — TDY (-7.76), WOLF (-100.53), MP (-49.49) — from the same three plus the removed foreign listings.
- Seven of the 11 names with a 200-day reading now sit below it (KMT, TDY, WOLF, AMKR, MP, CRS, ALM), up from six last week as Carpenter crossed under.
How To Read The Board
This book is a set of unrelated traces rather than a sector, so read it name by name and resist a single verdict. Three groups fall out cleanly this week.
The semiconductor-adjacent names — ASE, Keysight, Teradyne, Amkor, Kulicke & Soffa — all carry positive trailing-year alpha and all rose Friday. Amkor is the only one of the five below its 200-day (-11.5%) and its alpha is +57.48, so that is a trend under test rather than a broken one.
The two genuinely damaged names are unchanged: Wolfspeed and MP Materials each fail on the week, the month, the trailing year, alpha and their 200-day at once. Teledyne is the mild third case — headline trailing year of +7.26% with alpha of -7.76 and a 2.4% gap below its 200-day, the shape that looks flat and underperforms.
The two outliers need different treatment, not the same one. Carpenter's low RSI sits on a positive year and positive alpha, which argues pullback — but it lost its 200-day this week, so the long trend is genuinely under test and its 200-day average, $437.37, is the line that decides it. Elmet's high RSI sits on nothing checkable at all — no 200-day, no trailing year, no dated cause — which is not the same as a confirmed breakout.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELMT | $22.98 | 68.2 | $18.03 | +27.5% | +41.94% | +33.68% | too-young (no 200-day or trailing-year check; no cause on file) |
| ASX | $41.63 | 61.2 | $38.21 | +8.9% | +5.47% | +16.74% | uptrend (42.5% above 200-day, alpha +247.93) |
| KEYS | $335.00 | 54.5 | $323.67 | +3.5% | -1.07% | +4.87% | pullback (above 200-day, alpha +74.03) |
| TER | $371.47 | 52.4 | $357.66 | +3.9% | -2.17% | -2.15% | pullback (above 200-day, alpha +197.62) |
| AMKR | $50.30 | 49.2 | $48.56 | +3.6% | -2.76% | -1.16% | collapse (11.5% below 200-day, alpha +57.48) |
| KLIC | $83.14 | 46.8 | $82.03 | +1.4% | -3.47% | -3.65% | pullback (thesis: intact-but-priced) |
| WOLF | $25.59 | 46.1 | $25.97 | -1.4% | -1.27% | -12.03% | collapse (+7.79% Friday changes nothing: 1-year -85.52%, alpha -100.53) |
| KMT | $29.77 | 45.0 | $29.67 | +0.3% | +1.12% | -2.65% | collapse (13.4% below 200-day, alpha +24.88) |
| ALM | $13.84 | 38.7 | $16.96 | -18.4% | -10.65% | -14.46% | downtrend (sharpest weekly decline; alpha +164.02) |
| TDY | $603.46 | 38.2 | $611.07 | -1.2% | -0.05% | -6.96% | basing (below 200-day, alpha -7.76) |
| MP | $47.26 | 35.6 | $54.03 | -12.5% | -6.43% | -16.62% | collapse (1-year -34.48%, alpha -49.49) |
| CRS | $408.12 | 23.8 | $456.52 | -10.6% | -7.91% | -19.97% | collapse (lost its 200-day this week; 1-year +65.4%, alpha +50.39) |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25) — 1 name: CRS (23.8). The trailing-year and alpha readings are strongly positive, so this is a deep pullback rather than a breakdown — but it crossed below its 200-day this week, which is the piece that changed.
Oversold (RSI 25-40) — 3 names: MP (35.6, broken on every window), TDY (38.2, negative alpha behind a flat chart), ALM (38.7, sharpest weekly decline but alpha +164.02).
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — 8 names: ELMT (68.2, unverifiable), ASX (61.2), KEYS (54.5), TER (52.4), AMKR (49.2), KLIC (46.8), WOLF (46.1, RSI recovering off a destroyed trend), KMT (45.0).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry zone | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| CRS | $408-437 (between the close and the $437.37 200-day) | Capitulation-level RSI against a +65.4% trailing year and +50.39 alpha. The condition is whether it reclaims the 200-day it lost this week; the $456.52 20-day is the second line |
| AMKR | $48-50 (around the $48.56 20-day) | Above its 20-day, 11.5% below its 200-day, alpha +57.48 — trend under test, next print scheduled October 26 |
| ALM | $13.84-16.96 (18.4% below its 20-day) | Sharpest weekly decline in the book with a Q2 revenue miss on the receipt but nothing dated to this week; trailing-year alpha still +164.02 |
| ELMT | not a zone | +41.94% in a week with no 200-day, no trailing-year check and no dated cause; nothing here can be verified |
| WOLF, MP | not a zone | Both fail the week, the month, the trailing year, alpha and the 200-day simultaneously |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASX, KEYS, TER | 🟢 Above 200-day, positive alpha | 🔒 Hold | The clean subset; ASX is 42.5% above its 200-day and up 16.74% on the month |
| AMKR, KLIC | 🟡 Under test | 🔍 Research | Positive alpha with AMKR still 11.5% below its 200-day; KLIC rated intact-but-priced |
| CRS | 🟢 Capitulation RSI, intact year | 🔍 Research | RSI 23.8 with +50.39 alpha, but the 200-day broke this week — confirm the level before the reading |
| ELMT | 🟠 Unverifiable move | 🔍 Watch | +41.94% week with no dated cause and no long-horizon data to test it against |
| ALM | 🟡 Sharp decline, intact year | 🔍 Watch | -10.65% week; the pull now carries a Q2 revenue miss but nothing dated to the move |
| KMT | 🟡 Mixed | 🔍 Watch | Positive alpha (+24.88) but 13.4% below its 200-day |
| TDY | 🟡 Flat chart, negative alpha | 🔍 Watch | +7.26% trailing year, -7.76 alpha — the pattern that hides underperformance |
| WOLF, MP | 🔴 Broken on every window | ⚠️ Avoid | Wolfspeed's 7.79% Friday does not touch a -85.52% year |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether Elmet's 41.94% week produces a dated explanation | Nothing on file justifies the largest move in this book; its next print is November 16 |
| Carpenter's 200-day, $437.37 | The level it lost this week, and the difference between a deep pullback and a trend break; next print scheduled October 22 |
| Almonty's next disclosure | The pull now names a Q2 revenue miss and a no-guidance call, but nothing dated to a -10.65% week |
| Whether Amkor reclaims its 200-day before the October 26 print | The only semiconductor-adjacent name here still below it, with positive alpha |
| Teledyne's alpha | The book's quiet underperformer, reporting October 21 |
| ASE's stale news coverage | The book's second-strongest name has not had a news pull since early July |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Carpenter Technology lost its 200-day in the same week its RSI hit 23.8 | The two readings mean different things together than apart — a deep pullback becomes a trend under test |
| A too-young name produced the book's largest move | Without a 200-day or a trailing year, a 41.94% week cannot be classified at all — the tape is the only evidence |
| Friday's semiconductor bid lifted even the destroyed names | Wolfspeed rose 7.79% while remaining down 85.52% on the year; a one-day sector bid is not name-level evidence |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Calling Almonty's decline uncaused when the pull was simply old | This week's fresher pull carried the Q2 revenue miss the last one did not — a stale receipt was hiding available context |
| Letting an undated item in a news pull stand in for a cause | Carpenter's receipt names a buyback and a dividend with no dates; none of them explains a -7.91% week |
Open Questions
- What drove Elmet's 41.94% week, and does the move survive the first ordinary-volume session?
- Does Carpenter reclaim its 200-day, or is the +50.39 alpha now history?
- Is Teledyne's negative alpha an early version of the Wolfspeed and MP pattern, or just a flat stretch?
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position, relative volume): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-18 close — supply-chain-traces.
- Chip-stock recovery framing, September 17: MarketWatch, "Micron, Intel and other chip stocks are furthering their strong comebacks" — 2026-09-17-marketwatch-micron-intel-and-other-chip-stocks-are-furthering-their-stro--mktw-0005238654.
- Federal Reserve quarter-point hike, September 16: CNBC, "Fed delivers its first hike in 3 years" — 2026-09-16-cnbc-fed-delivers-its-first-hike-in-3-years-plus-what-s-moving-st-108363844.
- Elmet, Carpenter and Almonty news receipts (pulls completed September 17-18; no dated driver for this week's moves): latest,
.../CRS/news/latest.json,.../ALM/news/latest.json. - ASE news receipt (stale, pull completed 2026-07-07): latest.
- MP Materials news receipt (stale, pull completed 2026-08-28): latest.
- Coverage removal of BESIY, ATEYY and SDVKY, September 12: CHANGELOG.
- Scheduled prints: 2026-10-22-crs-earnings,
.../2026-10-26-amkr-earnings.md,.../2026-10-21-tdy-earnings.md,.../2026-11-16-elmt-earnings.md.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.