Ten of the 12 names in this book gained RSI over the three sessions since the last scan, but the two exceptions matter more than the eight gainers: Carpenter Technology deepened into capitulation territory at RSI 21.2, down from 23.8, and Elmet Group gave back most of its unexplained 41.94% week, with RSI falling from 68.2 to 57.5. Teledyne reclaimed its 200-day average this scan, trimming the below-200-day group to six of 11 names with data. The negative-alpha trio — Wolfspeed, MP Materials, Teledyne — is unchanged for a third scan even as two of the three improved on RSI.

Numbers are the settled September 23 close for all 12 names; ELMT still carries no 200-day or trailing-year comparison (too-young regime). No market-wide brief for today's session exists in the corpus as of this scan. Comparison baseline is the September 18 scan.

Carpenter Technology is now the most oversold name the desk tracks in this book's history. Its RSI fell from 23.8 to 21.2 this scan, deepening the capitulation reading flagged last time, on a further decline that took the stock to $395.03. Its trailing-year alpha stayed strongly positive at +49.52 and the trailing year itself is still +65.29%, but the stock remains below its 200-day average by 9.9% — the trend-under-test condition flagged last scan has not resolved either direction. The news pull is stale relative to the move (newest item July 31), so no dated cause exists for the continued decline.

Elmet Group's unexplained surge has partially unwound. Its RSI fell from 68.2 to 57.5 and its trailing-week gain shrank from 41.94% to 3.73%, though the 30-day gain is still +16.53%. The news pull remains stale (newest item August 13, predating the entire move), so neither the spike nor the partial reversal has a dated cause on file.

Almonty Industries had two real, dated events land this week and still fell. A September 22 receipt confirms Q2 results alongside an oversubscribed $800 million convertible senior notes offering that lifted cash to C$1.2 billion, on top of a September 17 multi-year tungsten offtake agreement with Sandvik subsidiary WBH. Despite that news flow, the stock fell 5.09% today. The receipt does not tie the decline to either event, so the drop stays on the tape without a confirmed cause — convertible note issuance is sometimes dilutive, but that mechanism is not confirmed here and is not asserted as the driver.

Teledyne is the one structural repair in this book this scan. Its RSI jumped from 38.2 to 52.1, the largest gain here, and it crossed back above its 200-day average by a fraction of a percent — the same move flagged in the drone-defense book, since Teledyne sits in both.

• 10 of 12 names gained RSI: TDY (+13.9, the largest), KLIC (+11.8), KEYS (+8.2), MP (+6.6), AMKR (+5.0), WOLF (+4.3), TER (+3.5), ASX (+2.7), KMT (+2.4), ALM (+0.4).
• CRS: RSI 23.8 → 21.2 (-2.6), deepening capitulation. ELMT: RSI 68.2 → 57.5 (-10.7), the largest decline as its unexplained run partially reversed.
• TDY: 200-day position flipped from -0.1% to +0.1% — a reclaim. The below-200-day group narrowed to six of 11 names with data (KMT, CRS, MP, WOLF, AMKR, ALM), from seven.
• The negative-alpha trio held at three names for a third consecutive scan: WOLF (-96.98), MP (-50.32), TDY (-6.41) — the same three, with WOLF and TDY's short-term technicals improving even as the trailing-year figure stays negative for all three.
• ASX extended further: RSI 63.9, up from 61.2, now 48.1% above its 200-day; still no fresh news pull (last completed pull is more than two months stale).

This book remains a set of unrelated traces rather than a sector, and this scan sharpens that. The semiconductor-adjacent five — ASX, Keysight, Teradyne, Amkor, Kulicke & Soffa — all carry positive trailing-year alpha and four of the five gained RSI; Amkor is the only one still below its 200-day (-6.4%), which reads as trend under test given its alpha of +64.49.

The negative-alpha trio is unchanged for a third scan: Wolfspeed and MP Materials still fail on every window at once, and Teledyne is the milder version — a chart that just reclaimed its 200-day while its trailing-year alpha remains negative at -6.41. That combination (technical repair, trailing-year damage) is the pattern to watch rather than dismiss.

Carpenter and Elmet need separate treatment, same as last scan, but the story has moved. Carpenter's capitulation-level RSI still sits on a strongly positive trailing year and alpha, arguing pullback — but it remains below its 200-day, so the condition from last scan (reclaim the average) is still open and has not resolved. Elmet's unexplained spike is cooling rather than confirming: RSI and the weekly gain both fell sharply, which is consistent with a squeeze unwinding rather than a breakout continuing.

Capitulation (RSI below 25) — 1 name: CRS (21.2). Deepened from 23.8 last scan. Trailing-year alpha remains strongly positive (+49.52), so this stays a deep pullback rather than a confirmed breakdown, but the stock has not reclaimed its 200-day.

Oversold (RSI 25-40) — 1 name: ALM (39.1). Almonty carries alpha +113.14 despite real dated news this week (offtake deal, oversubscribed convertible raise) that did not lift the stock.

Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — 10 names: ASX (63.9), KEYS (62.7), ELMT (57.5), KLIC (58.6), TER (55.9), AMKR (54.2), TDY (52.1), WOLF (50.4), KMT (47.4), MP (42.2, broken on every long window despite the tier, alpha -50.32).

• Does Carpenter reclaim its 200-day, or does the 9.9% gap persist through another scan?
• Does Elmet's cooling stabilize into a normal range, or continue unwinding toward its pre-spike level?
• Is Almonty's flat-to-negative price reaction despite real news a sign the offering diluted holders, or an unrelated coincidence?

• Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-23 close — supply-chain-traces.
• Almonty news receipt (pull completed 2026-09-22; Q2 results, $800M convertible offering, Sept 17 Sandvik tungsten offtake deal): latest.
• Carpenter news receipt (stale, newest article 2026-07-31): latest.
• Elmet news receipt (stale, newest article 2026-08-13): latest.
• Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-18-supply-chain-traces.