Supply Chain Traces Scan
Supply Chain Traces Scan
Every one of the 12 names finished the week lower, a week after all 12 closed green, and the overbought readings are gone. Keysight (RSI 66.6, -1.84% from its high) and ASE Technology (62.3, -3.13% from its high) held their uptrends with a shallow week. Amkor took the damage: -12.32% on the week, with its gap to the 200-day widening from -2.2% to -14.7%. Wolfspeed fell 13.24% despite an X-relayed $1.5 billion federal loan commitment, and its trailing-year alpha is negative again. The same six names sit under their 200-day as a week ago, and all six gaps widened.
Numbers are the settled October 9 close for all 12 names (Friday), one week after the October 2 scan. Elmet Group (ELMT) still carries no 200-day or trailing-year comparison (too-young regime). Wolfspeed's two-year figure crosses its September 2025 bankruptcy reorganization; its one-year figure is post-emergence. Comparison baseline is the October 2 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 0 of 12 up on the week; 8 of 12 green on Friday; six of 11 names with a 200-day are below it (unchanged); three with negative trailing-year alpha (from two) |
| Leaders | Keysight (RSI 66.6, breakout reading, -1.84% from its high), ASE Technology ASX (62.3, 47.6% above its 200-day), Kennametal (55.2), Wolfspeed (54.7), Elmet (54.6) |
| Laggards | Carpenter Technology (RSI 30), Almonty (35.7, -35.24% month), MP Materials (40.9, fails every long window), Amkor (42.7, -14.7% vs its 200-day) |
| The horizon check | Below the 200-day: Kennametal (-7.7%), Carpenter (-12.9%), MP (-18.4%), Teledyne (-2%), Amkor (-14.7%), Almonty (-24.9%). Negative alpha: MP (-52.18), Wolfspeed (-29.58), Teledyne (-9.55). Carpenter, Amkor and Almonty are under the line with positive alpha (37.83, 44.36, 35.59) |
| Caveat | The week includes the October 8 AI-hardware selloff after the OpenAI revenue report (CNBC; Bloomberg said the worry spread to chipmakers). Wolfspeed's loan commitment is relayed by two X posts on October 8 and has not been checked against a company release. Friday's moves have no cause on file. The latest news checks are from October 7 or earlier for every name here, no articles or posts dated October 9 are on file, and the October 9 events calendar lists only Delta's earnings and Oracle's dividend. Amkor's -3.69% Friday is cause unknown. |
What's Going On
The semiconductor half of the book gave back the prior week's run. Teradyne fell 10.32%, Kulicke & Soffa 8.69% and Amkor 12.32%. On October 6 the market brief counted test and burn-in equipment down about 3% and packaging equipment down 2.8%, mostly on below-average volume, with no cause on file. On October 8 chipmakers broadly sold with the AI-hardware cohort after OpenAI's revenue report (CNBC; Bloomberg). Teradyne and Kulicke & Soffa remain healthy on the long windows: Teradyne is 18.2% above its 200-day on a 177.35% year, and Kulicke & Soffa is 9.2% above on a 125.07% year, with the desk's thesis rating of intact but priced. Both are pullbacks in intact trends. Keysight barely moved (-0.49% on the week), stays in a breakout reading and is -1.84% from its high.
Amkor is the change. Its gap to the 200-day ($57.58) went from -2.2% to -14.7% in a week, and it is -30.3% over three months and -49.19% from its high. Its year is still 60.37% with alpha 44.36, so this is a long trend under real test, not a broken one. The 46.74 shelf is the next support. Its news was last checked September 25, so news was not pulled for this move; it is scheduled to report October 26.
Wolfspeed rose and fell on its own story. Two X posts on October 8 said the company secured a conditional US Department of War Office of Strategic Capital commitment for a 30-year senior secured term loan of up to $1.5 billion to expand silicon-carbide and gallium-nitride capacity; one put the premarket move at +15%. No company release is on file. The week still closed -13.24%, Friday -1.32%. It sits 2.6% above its 200-day ($29.85), but its trailing year is -13.58% with alpha -29.58, and it is -62.13% from its high. That is a rebound inside a damaged chart, not an uptrend.
The materials names are still the weak half. Carpenter Technology sits at RSI 30, 12.9% under its 200-day, after a -15.84% month and -33.32% over three months. Its year (53.83%, alpha 37.83) keeps it a trend under test. Carpenter filed an 8-K on October 8; its contents were not reviewed here, and it is not cited as a cause. Almonty's month is -35.24% and its gap to the 200-day widened from -14.6% to -24.9%; its year is 51.6%. MP Materials (-36.17% year, alpha -52.18) is the one name failing every long window.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
- Breadth: 0 of 12 up on the week, after 12 of 12 closed green on October 2. Friday was 8 green, 3 red, 1 flat.
- Names below their 200-day: the same six (KMT, CRS, MP, TDY, AMKR, ALM), and every gap widened: Amkor (-2.2% to -14.7%), Almonty (-14.6% to -24.9%), Kennametal (-5.5% to -7.7%), MP (-17.2% to -18.4%), Carpenter (-12% to -12.9%) and Teledyne (-1% to -2%).
- Negative trailing-year alpha: three (MP, WOLF, TDY) versus two; Wolfspeed's alpha went from 27.89 to -29.58.
- Overbought: none at RSI 70 or higher, versus two (Keysight 74, Wolfspeed 70.6) on October 2. Carpenter's RSI is 30, from 28.2.
- Leadership held at the top: Keysight and ASE were among the October 2 leaders and are the two names still in uptrend or breakout readings.
How To Read The Board
Two stories still share one table, but this week both moved the same way. The semiconductor test, packaging and metrology names (Keysight, ASE, Teradyne, Kulicke & Soffa) are pullbacks above their 200-days with large years and positive alpha. Amkor is the exception, now a trend under real test. The materials names (Carpenter, Almonty, Kennametal, MP) are all under their 200-days. Only Carpenter and Almonty have the long-run numbers to deserve a trend-under-test label, and Almonty's is weakening fast.
Source limits: price and RSI against moving averages; no filings reviewed, no estimates. ASE Technology (ASX) is an ADR with normal trade access per the symbol registry. A low RSI or a single-day jump here is screen evidence, not a setup.
Price Table
Rows are ordered by RSI, highest first. Tape cells are live values for the October 9 close; the Signal column is the desk's label.
| Stock | As of | Price ($) | RSI | SMA20 ($) | vs SMA20 (%) | 7D (%) | 30D (%) | 1Y (%) | vs SMA200 (%) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEYS | 2026-10-09 | 382.75 | 66.6 | 356.66 | 7.3 | -0.49 | 15.63 | 123.7 | 24.7 | 🟢 breakout reading; near its high |
| ASX | 2026-10-09 | 46.43 | 62.3 | 43.6 | 6.5 | -2.15 | 12.69 | 296.5 | 47.6 | 🟢 uptrend; near its high |
| KMT | 2026-10-09 | 31.92 | 55.2 | 30.91 | 3.3 | -2.09 | 7.69 | 50.35 | -7.7 | 🟡 below 200-day; positive alpha |
| WOLF | 2026-10-09 | 30.61 | 54.7 | 28.32 | 8.1 | -13.24 | 12.21 | -13.58 | 2.6 | 🔴 rebound in a damaged chart; alpha negative again |
| ELMT | 2026-10-09 | 21.12 | 54.6 | 20.82 | 1.5 | -4.56 | 28.31 | n/a | n/a | too young: no 200-day |
| TER | 2026-10-09 | 402.68 | 52.6 | 392.07 | 2.7 | -10.32 | 4.95 | 177.35 | 18.2 | 🟡 pullback in intact trend |
| KLIC | 2026-10-09 | 92.01 | 52 | 89.9 | 2.3 | -8.69 | 9.82 | 125.07 | 9.2 | 🟡 pullback; intact-but-priced |
| TDY | 2026-10-09 | 613.66 | 49.4 | 609.44 | 0.7 | -0.57 | 3.1 | 6.46 | -2 | 🟡 just under 200-day; negative alpha |
| AMKR | 2026-10-09 | 49.12 | 42.7 | 51.67 | -4.9 | -12.32 | -4.34 | 60.37 | -14.7 | 🟡 long trend under real test |
| MP | 2026-10-09 | 46.14 | 40.9 | 47.99 | -3.8 | -1.77 | -15.03 | -36.17 | -18.4 | 🔴 fails every long window |
| ALM | 2026-10-09 | 11.87 | 35.7 | 13.36 | -11.1 | -11.42 | -35.24 | 51.6 | -24.9 | 🟡 trend under test; gap widening |
| CRS | 2026-10-09 | 385.81 | 30 | 397.4 | -2.9 | -0.68 | -15.84 | 53.83 | -12.9 | 🟢 oversold edge; trend under test |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): none.
Oversold (RSI 25-40) — 2 names: Carpenter Technology (30) and Almonty (35.7). Both are under their 200-days with positive alpha, so they are trends under test rather than broken charts.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — 10 names: Keysight (66.6), ASE (62.3), Kennametal (55.2), Wolfspeed (54.7), Elmet (54.6), Teradyne (52.6), Kulicke & Soffa (52), Teledyne (49.4), Amkor (42.7), MP Materials (40.9).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| TER | Pullback toward its 20-day (392.07), with the 376.61 shelf below | 177.35% year, 18.2% above its 200-day; a flag after a 10.32% week; report scheduled October 21 |
| KLIC | The 87.51 shelf, just under its 20-day (89.9) | Intact-but-priced, 9.2% above its 200-day |
| KEYS | None at the high; a pullback toward its 20-day (356.66) | Breakout reading, -1.84% from its high; nothing to chase |
| ASX | Pullback toward its 20-day (43.6) | 296.5% year, 47.6% above its 200-day; extended |
| AMKR | A base above the 46.74 shelf, then a reclaim of its 200-day (57.58) | Positive alpha (44.36) but -14.7% under the line; report scheduled October 26 |
| CRS | A base off the oversold edge, then the 200-day (443.08) | 53.83% year, alpha 37.83; report scheduled October 22 |
| ALM | None until the gap stops widening; the 200-day is 15.8 | 51.6% year, but -35.24% month and -24.9% under the line |
| KMT | A held close above its 200-day (34.6); the base pivot is 34.53 | Positive alpha (34.35), -7.7% under the line |
| WOLF, MP, TDY | None | Negative trailing-year alpha |
| ELMT | None | No long-window history yet |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| KEYS, ASX | 🟢 Uptrend near highs | 🔒 Hold | Shallow week; do not chase |
| TER, KLIC | 🟡 Pullback in intact trend | 🔍 Watch | Flag forming above the 200-day; Teradyne reports October 21 |
| AMKR | 🟡 Trend under real test | 🔍 Watch | Gap to the 200-day went from -2.2% to -14.7% in a week |
| CRS, ALM | 🟡 Under 200-day, positive alpha | 🔍 Watch | Carpenter at RSI 30; Almonty's gap widening |
| KMT | 🟡 Under 200-day | 🔍 Watch | Positive alpha; the line is 34.6 |
| WOLF | 🔴 Damaged chart, loan story | ⚠️ Avoid chasing | Loan commitment X-relayed only; week -13.24%; alpha negative |
| MP, TDY | 🔴 Negative alpha | ⚠️ Avoid | Fail the long-horizon check |
| ELMT | 🟡 Too young | 🔍 Watch | No history for 200-day or alpha |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Amkor at the 46.74 shelf | The week's largest structural change; the shelf is the next support before the October 26 report |
| Wolfspeed's loan commitment | Needs a company release or filing on file before it counts as a cause; the stock fell 13.24% on the week anyway |
| Scheduled reports: Teledyne and Teradyne October 21, Carpenter October 22, Amkor October 26, ASE October 29 | Three names under their 200-day (Teledyne, Carpenter, Amkor) and one pullback (Teradyne) get a dated test within three weeks |
| Almonty's 200-day gap (-24.9%) | Widened from -14.6% in a week; a positive year does not protect a trend that keeps losing its line |
| Whether Keysight holds its high | The one breakout reading left in the book |
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position, support shelves): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-10-09 close — supply-chain-traces. Wolfspeed equity-continuity record: Wolfspeed Form 8-K, 2025-09-29 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895419/000119312525223057/d69265d8k.htm.
- OpenAI revenue report: CNBC, October 8 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/open-ai-revenue-nvidia-oracle-coreweave.html; Bloomberg, October 8 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-08/us-stock-futures-slip-on-mounting-energy-shock-ai-bubble-fears.
- Equipment lane moves on October 6: the October 6 market brief — 2026-10-06-market-brief.
- Wolfspeed loan commitment (X relay): https://x.com/ConnorJBates_/status/2108175441106501689 and https://x.com/Kaizen_Investor/status/2108182479412564115 (captures 2026-10-08-ConnorJBates_-wolf-15-wolfspeed-secures-conditional-u-s-depart-06501689, 2026-10-08-Kaizen_Investor-wolf-is-flying-in-pre-market-at-the-moment-wolfs-12564115).
- Carpenter 8-K (captured, not reviewed): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/17843/000119312526417980/d169218d8k.htm (2026-10-08-crs-8-k-0001193125-26-417980).
- Cause checks for October 9: news checks under stocks<SYM>/news/latest.json
(latest for this list fetched 2026-10-07; Amkor 2026-09-25), event files 2026-10-09-dal-earnings and2026-10-09-orcl-dividend.md, andresearch/capture/` (none dated 2026-10-09). - Tradability: _securities.
- Scheduled reports:
research/stock-events/rows for TDY, TER, CRS, AMKR, ASX (provider estimates). - Prior scan for comparison: 2026-10-02-supply-chain-traces.
Related
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