Optical Supply Chain Scan

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Optical Supply Chain Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 52 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusscheduledprior scanresearch/scans/2026-08-08-optical-supply-chain.md

CLS, the sole name still tagged collapse last cycle, repaired to pullback — clearing the collapse pocket to zero for a second straight cycle. Two names carry a caveat large enough to override their headline numbers: IBIDF's RSI jumped from 40.3 to 71.6, the highest reading in the book, on zero shares traded, and NGKIF, still the lowest RSI in the book at 41.3, also printed zero volume. AXTI and COHR both cooled sharply on the week after last cycle's outsized runs — AXTI's monthly gain kept climbing even as its week reversed, while COHR's RSI and monthly return both eased.

Data as-of the 2026-08-14 close for the full 37-name book, with four names one session behind: SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE, and IBIDF all carry an 2026-08-13 bar. Prior scan: 2026-08-08-optical-supply-chain (data as-of the 2026-08-07 close).

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟢 The collapse pocket cleared to zero for a second straight cycle, but two of the book's biggest movers carry a zero-volume caveat
Key insight IBIDF's RSI jumped from 40.3 to 71.6 — the highest in the book — on literally zero shares traded this cycle; treat it as unconfirmed, not a signal

What's Going On

The last structural weak spot in this book closed out this cycle. CLS, which had been the sole name still tagged collapse after last cycle's five-name sweep, lifted to pullback as its RSI climbed from 44.6 to 49.5 and its 30-day return flipped back to roughly flat at +0.08% (was -11.89%) — the collapse pocket now reads zero for the second cycle running, after clearing five names the cycle before that. AXTI, last cycle's biggest 30-day mover, cooled hard on the week even as its month kept climbing: its 7-day return flipped to -7.83% (was +46.58%) while its 30-day gain still extended to +52.83% (was +47.34%) — a pullback sitting on top of an already-extended move rather than a reversal of it. COHR told a similar story in miniature: RSI eased from 63.6 to 51.2 and its 7-day return flipped to -14.06% (was +44.22%), with its 30-day gain cooling to +8.83% from +19.58%. Against that cooling, KOPN, AEHR, and LPTH all kept extending — KOPN's RSI climbed to 66.1 from 55.0 with its 30-day gain nearly quadrupling to +30.02% (was +8.38%), AEHR's RSI reached 67.5 with a +52.71% 30-day gain, and LPTH's RSI hit 63.8 with a +32.84% 30-day gain. SNDK, which had carried the deepest monthly loss in the book for multiple cycles, finally turned its 30-day return positive at +1.62% (was -29.82%) on a RSI of 57.0. Two names need a caveat attached before their numbers mean anything: IBIDF's RSI jumped from 40.3 to 71.6 — now the single highest reading in the book — with a +40.45% 7-day return, all on zero shares traded this cycle (relative volume 0), the same zero-volume flag it carried last cycle. NGKIF, still the lowest RSI in the book at 41.3 (up from 29.3), also printed zero volume. Separately, the set of stale names rotated: SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE, and IBIDF now carry an 2026-08-13 bar, one session behind the rest of the book, while NGKIF and HIMX — stale last cycle — are both current again this time.

What Changed Since 2026-08-08

  • CLS: regime upgraded collapse → pullback, clearing the pocket to zero; RSI 44.6 → 49.5; 30-day flipped from -11.89% to +0.08%.
  • AXTI: RSI eased to 58.9 (was 65.4); 7-day flipped to -7.83% (was +46.58%); 30-day still climbed to +52.83% (was +47.34%) — cooling on top of an extended move, not a reversal.
  • COHR: RSI 63.6 → 51.2; 7-day flipped to -14.06% (was +44.22%); 30-day cooled to +8.83% (was +19.58%).
  • KOPN: RSI 55.0 → 66.1; 30-day climbed to +30.02% (was +8.38%).
  • AEHR: RSI 57.8 → 67.5; 30-day climbed to +52.71% (was +51.82%).
  • LPTH: RSI 55.9 → 63.8; 30-day climbed to +32.84% (was +3.08%).
  • SNDK: RSI 41.7 → 57.0; 30-day flipped from -29.82% to +1.62%, the first positive monthly print after multiple cycles as the deepest loss in the book.
  • IBIDF: RSI 40.3 → 71.6, now the highest in the book; 7-day +40.45%; volume still zero shares this cycle — carried a caveat last cycle too, treat as unconfirmed.
  • NGKIF: RSI 29.3 → 41.3, still the lowest in the book but improving; volume zero shares this cycle.
  • OPTX: RSI 48.1 → 55.6; 30-day flipped from -15.23% to +8.63%.
  • VIAV: RSI 47.1 → 56.0; 30-day flipped from -3.83% to +8.52%.
  • HIMX: RSI 55.1 → 57.5; 30-day flipped from -1.95% to +9.41%.
  • CIEN: RSI 50.2 → 53.8; 30-day flipped from -6.48% to +2.46%; thesis still rated intact-but-priced.
  • 6779.T: RSI 46.1 → 53.2; 30-day narrowed to -3.58% (was -11.35%).
  • GLW: RSI 51.6 → 51.8, roughly flat; 30-day narrowed to -4.83% (was -9.97%).
  • ALAB: RSI 50.6 → 48.9; 30-day narrowed to -8.27% (was -15.0%), still negative.
  • LWLG: RSI 56.2 → 51.4; 30-day cooled to +12.15% (was +18.57%).
  • POET: RSI 54.2 → 58.1, thesis still intact; 30-day climbed to +15.84% (was +4.7%).
  • FORM: RSI 52.1 → 59.6; 30-day climbed to +13.63% (was +5.2%).
  • AAOI: RSI 56.7 → 60.9; 30-day climbed to +37.76% (was +18.52%).
  • Stale set rotated: SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE, IBIDF now carry an 2026-08-13 bar (one session behind); NGKIF and HIMX, stale last cycle, are both current this time.

How To Read The Board

Regime labels describe chart structure, not a buy/sell call. A second straight cycle with zero names tagged collapse is a genuinely clean read for this book, but IBIDF's RSI print needs to be discounted almost entirely — a move that large on zero volume is not price discovery, and the same caveat applied to it last cycle without the print correcting. AXTI and COHR's weekly reversals after outsized prior runs read as normal cooling inside a still-strong monthly trend, not a break in either story. KOPN, AEHR, LPTH, and SNDK's continued or fresh strength is the more durable signal in the book this cycle.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI 7D% 30D% vs SMA20 Trend From 52wkHigh
IBIDF $138.20 71.6 +40.45% +14.66% +34.2% strong-up -9.95% (regime: uptrend; zero volume this cycle, one session stale)
AEHR $134.06 67.5 +30.07% +52.71% +39.8% strong-up -7.54% (regime: uptrend)
KOPN $5.50 66.1 +28.81% +30.02% +35.1% strong-up -16.79%
LPTH $15.17 63.8 +16.16% +32.84% +27.4% strong-up -19.9%
SOI.PA €133.20 63.5 +10.31% +29.64% +21.4% strong-up -33.57% (one session stale)
AAOI $150.28 60.9 +10.8% +37.76% +30.2% strong-up -35.69%
JBL $363.10 61.4 +6.41% +13.76% +10.4% strong-up -15.35%
FORM $131.60 59.6 +12.1% +13.63% +17.9% strong-up -17.84%
FN $570.22 58.9 +1.39% +17.17% +12.7% up -23.86%
AXTI $81.64 58.9 -7.83% +52.83% +31.2% strong-up -42.97%
ONTO $331.71 58.8 +7.59% +8.85% +16.5% strong-up -14.17%
LITE $926.14 58.7 +4.04% +23.16% +16.1% strong-up -18.91% (thesis: intact)
POET $9.58 58.1 +7.52% +15.84% +20.9% strong-up -57.18% (thesis: intact)
OPTX $8.81 55.6 +13.09% +8.63% +16.3% weak-down -40.95%
IQEPF $0.64 55.4 +1.59% +23.08% +8.8% strong-up -32.63%
LAZR $47.50 56.1 +3.62% +14.87% +15.4% neutral -8.56% (regime: too-young)
MXL $84.84 56.1 +13.15% -4.5% +16.9% strong-up -33.87%
HIMX $15.23 57.5 +4.24% +9.41% +12.5% strong-up -38.24%
TSEM $265.48 57.5 +5.14% +5.77% +12.7% strong-up -17.02%
SNDK $1641.11 57.0 +35.38% +1.62% +21.2% weak-down -30.3%
PLAB $33.32 57.1 +2.05% +11.92% +6.6% weak-up -40.5%
VIAV $43.54 56.0 +11.24% +8.52% +10.9% strong-up -27.95%
MTSI $316.44 56.8 +1.81% +7.99% +14.4% weak-down -24.46%
CIEN $428.77 53.8 +3.97% +2.46% +8.6% strong-up -30.54% (thesis: intact-but-priced)
6779.T ¥3,100 53.2 +10.83% -3.58% +11.7% weak-down -42.91%
SMTC $140.35 54.6 +0.67% +3.79% +9.9% weak-down -20.86%
ALMU $18.42 54.1 +0.66% +12.32% +11.8% weak-down -44.64% (thesis: no-view)
GLW $165.99 51.8 +0.19% -4.83% +9.4% weak-down -38.92%
COHR $325.83 51.2 -14.06% +8.83% +7.3% weak-down -25.95%
LWLG $7.57 51.4 -6.66% +12.15% +9.8% weak-down -59.54%
SIVEF $4.44 51.4 +0.45% +7.51% +19.2% neutral -63.11% (regime: too-young)
CLS $335.05 49.5 +5.42% +0.08% +0.6% weak-down -26.66% (regime: pullback, upgraded from collapse)
ALAB $321.61 48.9 -3.76% -8.27% +3.1% weak-down -35.61%
ALRIB.PA €9.86 47.3 +4.12% -3.9% +2.4% weak-down -46.7% (one session stale)
FLTCF $3.42 47.4 +6.54% -11.4% +2.0% weak-down -59.76%
LPK.DE €15.70 46.3 +2.28% -7.1% +4.0% weak-down -49.03% (one session stale)
NGKIF $35.56 41.3 +4.53% -23.63% +1.2% weak-down -26.61% (zero volume this cycle)

Tier Analysis

Tier A — Strongest confirmed reads, RSI 55+ (23): IBIDF (caveat, see below), AEHR, KOPN, LPTH, SOI.PA (stale), AAOI, JBL, FORM, FN, AXTI, ONTO, LITE (thesis intact), POET (thesis intact), OPTX, IQEPF, LAZR (too-young), MXL, HIMX, TSEM, SNDK, PLAB, VIAV, MTSI.

Tier B — Mid-book, building, RSI 40-55 (12): CIEN (intact-but-priced), 6779.T, SMTC, ALMU (no-view thesis), GLW, COHR (fresh weekly reversal), LWLG, SIVEF (too-young), CLS (fresh repair), ALAB, ALRIB.PA (stale), FLTCF, LPK.DE (stale), NGKIF.

Tier C — Data caveats (2): IBIDF (RSI jumped 31 points on zero volume, one session stale), NGKIF (lowest RSI in the book, zero volume).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
SNDK $1641.11 57.0 +1.62% First positive 30-day print after multiple cycles carrying the deepest monthly loss in the book
CLS $335.05 49.5 +0.08% Fresh repair out of collapse, clearing the pocket to zero for a second straight cycle
COHR $325.83 51.2 +8.83% Sharp weekly cooldown after a prior +44.22% week — worth a look once the reversal confirms one way or the other

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD AEHR, KOPN, LPTH, AAOI, JBL, FORM, FN, ONTO, LITE, TSEM, HIMX, VIAV, MTSI, PLAB RSI 55+, non-collapse, continued or fresh strength
🔍 RESEARCH CLS, SNDK Both freshly flipped their 30-day return positive or near-flat this cycle
⚠️ AVOID ALAB, ALRIB.PA, FLTCF, LPK.DE, SIVEF, GLW Mid-to-low RSI, still-negative 30-day reads
🔍 WATCH AXTI, COHR Both cooled sharply on the week after outsized prior runs — not damaged, but extended
🔍 DATA CAVEAT IBIDF, NGKIF Zero shares traded this cycle; IBIDF's RSI print (highest in the book) should not be treated as confirmed

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Whether the collapse pocket stays at zero a third straight cycle Two consecutive clean cycles would be the longest structural run this book has shown
IBIDF's next print Currently the highest RSI in the book on zero shares traded — needs real volume to confirm or correct
AXTI and COHR's weekly reversals Both cooled hard after outsized prior runs; worth checking whether the pullback continues into the month
NGKIF's volume Still zero shares traded even as RSI climbed 12 points off the lowest reading in the book
The rotating stale-name set SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE, and IBIDF are one session behind this cycle; NGKIF and HIMX, stale last cycle, are current again

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-14 close (four names one session behind at 2026-08-13) — optical-supply-chain.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.