Optical Supply Chain Scan
Optical Supply Chain Scan
The collapse pocket, which had cleared to zero for two straight cycles, reopened to five names this week — FN, CLS, PLAB, LWLG, and ALMU — as RSI cooled 5 to 21 points across nearly all 37 names in the book. But four of those five are still up sharply over the trailing year and mostly still above their 200-day averages; this reads as a sharp, book-wide pullback inside mostly-intact longer trends, not a structural breakdown. ALMU, negative on the year and rated no-view, is the one collapse name where the tag looks earned rather than noisy.
Data as-of the 2026-08-21 close for the full 37-name book — every symbol carries a same-day bar this cycle, though several thin/foreign names (SOI.PA, NGKIF, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE, 6779.T, IBIDF) still route through yfinance rather than Schwab. No 2026-08-21-dated scan exists for this lane; the comparison baseline below is the August 14 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 A broad weekly cooldown — RSI fell across nearly every name — but most of the book is still up double digits over the year and above its 200-day |
| Key insight | The collapse pocket reopened to five names (FN, CLS, PLAB, LWLG, ALMU) after two clean cycles at zero, but only ALMU is actually negative on the trailing year — the rest are deep pullbacks inside still-strong multi-year trends |
What's Going On
This is a book-wide cooldown, not a name-by-name story: every one of the 37 names in this book saw its RSI fall this cycle, most by 5 to 15 points, several by considerably more — AEHR's RSI dropped from 67.5 to 49.0 on a -24.14% weekly return, IBIDF's fell from 71.6 to 50.5, and JBL's from 61.4 to 41.0. Five names now carry a fresh collapse regime tag: FN (RSI 39.1, a fresh death-cross with price 18.8% below its 200-day), CLS (RSI 41.0, back in collapse one cycle after repairing out of it), PLAB (RSI 44.2, also a fresh death-cross), LWLG (RSI 41.5), and ALMU (RSI 39.4, thesis rated no-view). That's a real structural reversal from the two straight clean cycles this book had shown. But the long-horizon numbers tell a more nuanced story for four of the five: FN is still up 57.62% over the trailing year, CLS is up 63.53% and remains golden-cross despite trading under its 200-day today, PLAB is up 46.05%, and LWLG is up a striking 180.09% with a strongly positive alpha1y of 158.28 — all four read as violent pullbacks inside trends that are still intact on a 12-month view, not breakdowns. ALMU is the exception: its trailing year is actually negative (-23.43%), it sits 17% below its 200-day, and its thesis carries a no-view rating — the collapse tag there looks earned rather than noisy.
Two names deserve a volume caveat before their prints mean anything. IBIDF's RSI fell from 71.6 to 50.5 this cycle, but it again traded zero shares — the same caveat this name carried the prior cycle, now stretching to a third straight period of unconfirmed pricing. NGKIF, now the lowest RSI in the book at 25.4 (down from 41.3), did print real volume this time — 300 shares against a 40-share average, a 7.5x relative-volume spike — but the absolute size is still thin enough to treat cautiously. Notably, NGKIF's own longer-horizon numbers argue against reading its RSI as a breakdown: it's still up 108.82% over the trailing year and sits 9% above its 200-day, which makes this look more like an oversold pullback inside an intact trend than a broken thesis.
AEHR's -24.14% weekly return is the sharpest single-week move in the book, and on its own it would read as alarming. But AEHR is still up 8.76% on the month, 476.05% over the trailing year, and sits 70.6% above its 200-day — this is a textbook violent-pullback-inside-a-secular-uptrend setup rather than damage to the underlying trend. KOPN remains the strongest confirmed name in the book on RSI (58.3, still the highest reading despite cooling from 66.1), with a 188% trailing-year gain and price 49.9% above its 200-day.
What Changed Since 2026-08-14
- Collapse pocket reopened from zero to five: FN, CLS (re-collapse after last cycle's repair), PLAB, LWLG, ALMU — up from zero collapse-tagged names for two straight cycles.
- FN: RSI 58.9 → 39.1, the sharpest RSI drop in the book (-19.8); fresh death-cross; 30-day widened to -14.99%; still +57.62% over the trailing year.
- JBL: RSI 61.4 → 41.0 (-20.4); 30-day narrowed only slightly to -1.6%.
- AEHR: RSI 67.5 → 49.0 (-18.5); 7-day flipped to -24.14%, the sharpest weekly move in the book; 30-day still +8.76%; 1-year +476.05%.
- IBIDF: RSI 71.6 → 50.5 (-21.1); zero shares traded for a third straight cycle — still unconfirmed pricing.
- NGKIF: RSI 41.3 → 25.4, now the lowest in the book; this cycle printed real (if thin) volume at 7.5x average, unlike the two prior zero-volume cycles; 1-year still +108.82%.
- CLS: RSI 49.5 → 41.0; regime downgraded back to collapse one cycle after repairing out of it.
- SNDK: RSI 57.0 → 53.7, the smallest RSI drop in the book; 30-day flipped back to -0.2% (was +1.62%).
- KOPN: RSI 66.1 → 58.3; still the highest reading in the book despite the cooling; 30-day still +34.4%.
- ALMU: RSI 54.1 → 39.4; regime dropped to collapse; thesis rated no-view; the one collapse name also negative on the trailing year (-23.43%).
How To Read The Board
Regime labels describe chart structure, not a buy/sell call, and this cycle is the clearest case yet for reading them alongside the trailing-year numbers before calling anything a breakdown. FN, CLS, PLAB, and LWLG all just earned a collapse tag, but three of the four are still up 46% to 180% over the trailing year and the fourth (CLS) remains golden-cross on its longer moving averages even while trading under its 200-day today — that combination reads as a deep, sharp pullback inside a trend that hasn't actually broken, not the start of a new downtrend. ALMU is the one name in that group where the annual number agrees with the short-term tag: negative on the year, below its 200-day, thesis rated no-view. IBIDF's zero-volume print for a third straight cycle means its RSI number still can't be trusted either direction. NGKIF's real (if thin) volume this cycle is a meaningful upgrade in data quality even as its RSI hit a fresh low for the book.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOPN | $5.04 | 58.3 | $4.38 | +15.0% | -8.36% | +34.4% | pullback |
| LPTH | $14.42 | 57.5 | $12.47 | +15.6% | -4.88% | +18.88% | pullback |
| SNDK | $1596.08 | 53.7 | $1381.13 | +15.6% | -2.8% | -0.2% | pullback |
| LITE | $866.71 | 52.5 | $817.31 | +6.0% | -6.39% | +4.46% | pullback (thesis: intact) |
| OPTX | $8.51 | 51.6 | $7.79 | +9.2% | -3.39% | +2.41% | pullback |
| IBIDF | $117.90 | 50.5 | $110.98 | +6.2% | -14.69% | +9.45% | pullback (zero volume, 3rd cycle — unconfirmed) |
| IQEPF | $0.61 | 50.0 | $0.60 | +1.0% | -6.15% | -6.15% | pullback |
| AXTI | $70.74 | 49.9 | $69.10 | +2.4% | -13.34% | +33.52% | pullback |
| AAOI | $124.82 | 49.2 | $121.26 | +2.9% | -16.97% | +12.94% | pullback |
| AEHR | $101.73 | 49.0 | $103.37 | -1.6% | -24.14% | +8.76% | pullback |
| ONTO | $293.33 | 48.2 | $290.85 | +0.9% | -11.62% | -0.65% | pullback |
| LAZR | $43.85 | 48.1 | $42.51 | +3.1% | -7.34% | +6.61% | too-young |
| POET | $8.25 | 47.3 | $8.17 | +1.0% | -13.69% | +7.84% | pullback |
| FORM | $114.16 | 47.2 | $114.56 | -0.3% | -13.16% | +0.68% | pullback |
| HIMX | $13.79 | 46.8 | $13.80 | -0.1% | -9.4% | +1.25% | pullback |
| SIVEF | $3.91 | 46.4 | $3.80 | +3.0% | -11.74% | +0.77% | too-young |
| VIAV | $38.90 | 46.4 | $39.16 | -0.7% | -10.63% | -7.93% | pullback |
| CIEN | $395.79 | 46.3 | $397.57 | -0.4% | -7.63% | -0.34% | pullback (thesis: intact-but-priced) |
| SOI.PA | €109.80 | 45.7 | €115.77 | -5.2% | -15.02% | +14.35% | pullback |
| SMTC | $124.09 | 45.7 | $127.63 | -2.8% | -11.59% | -9.38% | pullback |
| FLTCF | $3.30 | 45.2 | $3.34 | -1.3% | -4.07% | -2.65% | pullback |
| COHR | $289.52 | 45.0 | $304.46 | -4.9% | -11.21% | -7.26% | pullback |
| TSEM | $222.59 | 44.5 | $233.30 | -4.6% | -16.07% | -10.8% | pullback |
| 6779.T | ¥2,732 | 44.4 | ¥2,791.8 | -2.1% | -11.87% | -4.14% | pullback |
| PLAB | $30.51 | 44.2 | $31.49 | -3.1% | -8.43% | -2.34% | collapse (death-cross) |
| GLW | $149.84 | 44.1 | $152.44 | -1.7% | -9.7% | -2.74% | pullback |
| MXL | $66.61 | 43.8 | $69.81 | -4.6% | -21.44% | -23.26% | pullback |
| MTSI | $266.61 | 42.1 | $280.04 | -4.8% | -15.72% | -5.66% | pullback |
| LWLG | $6.19 | 41.5 | $6.91 | -10.4% | -18.31% | -8.57% | collapse |
| CLS | $296.55 | 41.0 | $329.35 | -10.0% | -11.49% | -11.61% | collapse (down from pullback) |
| JBL | $313.21 | 41.0 | $333.10 | -6.0% | -13.82% | -1.6% | pullback |
| ALAB | $284.97 | 40.7 | $307.54 | -7.3% | -11.51% | -13.88% | pullback |
| ALMU | $14.77 | 39.4 | $16.56 | -10.8% | -20.04% | -7.75% | collapse (thesis: no-view) |
| FN | $436.67 | 39.1 | $500.21 | -12.7% | -23.4% | -14.99% | collapse (death-cross) |
| ALRIB.PA | €9.04 | 37.5 | €9.39 | -3.7% | -7.0% | -9.24% | pullback |
| LPK.DE | €13.05 | 34.8 | €14.67 | -11.1% | -13.29% | -22.78% | pullback |
| NGKIF | $31.95 | 25.4 | $34.23 | -6.7% | -10.15% | -15.92% | pullback (thin volume, 7.5x rel.) |
Tier Analysis
Tier A — RSI 50+, confirmed strength (7): KOPN, LPTH, SNDK, LITE, OPTX, IBIDF (unconfirmed — zero volume), IQEPF.
Tier B — Mid-book, RSI 45-50 (15): AXTI, AAOI, AEHR, ONTO, LAZR, POET, FORM, HIMX, SIVEF, VIAV, CIEN, SOI.PA, SMTC, FLTCF, COHR.
Tier C — Cooling, RSI 40-45 (10): TSEM, 6779.T, PLAB (collapse), GLW, MXL, MTSI, LWLG (collapse), CLS (collapse), JBL, ALAB.
Tier D — Weakest, RSI <40 (5): ALMU (collapse, thesis no-view, negative 1y), FN (collapse, death-cross), ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE, NGKIF (lowest RSI, thin volume).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEHR | $101.73 | 49.0 | +8.76% | Sharpest weekly drop in the book (-24.14%) sitting on top of a +476.05% trailing-year gain and price 70.6% above its 200-day — a violent pullback, not a broken trend |
| NGKIF | $31.95 | 25.4 | -15.92% | Lowest RSI in the book, but real (if thin) volume this cycle for the first time in three; still +108.82% over the trailing year and above its 200-day |
| LWLG | $6.19 | 41.5 | -8.57% | Fresh collapse tag, but +180.09% over the trailing year with a strongly positive alpha1y — the tag looks like short-term noise on top of a very strong secular move |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | KOPN, LPTH, SNDK, LITE, OPTX, IQEPF | RSI 50+, still-strong trailing-year gains |
| 🔍 RESEARCH | AEHR, NGKIF | Sharp near-term drops sitting on top of triple-digit trailing-year gains |
| ⚠️ AVOID | FN, PLAB | Fresh collapse tags with fresh death-crosses; trailing year still positive but the technical structure just broke |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | ALMU | Collapse regime, thesis rated no-view, and negative on the trailing year — the one collapse name with no long-horizon counter-argument |
| 🔍 DATA CAVEAT | IBIDF | Zero shares traded for a third straight cycle; RSI print still cannot be trusted either direction |
| 🔍 WATCH | CLS, ALAB, MTSI, TSEM | Mid-to-low RSI, still-negative 30-day reads, no fresh regime change beyond CLS's re-collapse |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether the five newly collapse-tagged names (FN, CLS, PLAB, LWLG, ALMU) stabilize or keep deteriorating | Four of the five are still positive on the trailing year — the next cycle will show whether this was a violent pullback or the start of something worse |
| IBIDF's next print | Zero volume for a third straight cycle; needs a real trade to confirm any RSI reading |
| NGKIF's volume trend | First real (if thin) print in three cycles, at the lowest RSI in the book — worth watching whether volume normalizes further |
| AEHR's -24.14% weekly move | The sharpest single-week drop in the book; still up big on the month and year, but worth confirming the pullback doesn't extend |
| Whether ALMU's thesis rating changes | The one collapse name that's also negative on the trailing year and rated no-view — the closest thing to a genuine breakdown in this book right now |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year, SMA200): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-21 close — optical-supply-chain.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.