Optical Supply Chain Scan

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Optical Supply Chain Scan

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The collapse pocket, which had cleared to zero for two straight cycles, reopened to five names this week — FN, CLS, PLAB, LWLG, and ALMU — as RSI cooled 5 to 21 points across nearly all 37 names in the book. But four of those five are still up sharply over the trailing year and mostly still above their 200-day averages; this reads as a sharp, book-wide pullback inside mostly-intact longer trends, not a structural breakdown. ALMU, negative on the year and rated no-view, is the one collapse name where the tag looks earned rather than noisy.

Data as-of the 2026-08-21 close for the full 37-name book — every symbol carries a same-day bar this cycle, though several thin/foreign names (SOI.PA, NGKIF, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE, 6779.T, IBIDF) still route through yfinance rather than Schwab. No 2026-08-21-dated scan exists for this lane; the comparison baseline below is the August 14 scan.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 A broad weekly cooldown — RSI fell across nearly every name — but most of the book is still up double digits over the year and above its 200-day
Key insight The collapse pocket reopened to five names (FN, CLS, PLAB, LWLG, ALMU) after two clean cycles at zero, but only ALMU is actually negative on the trailing year — the rest are deep pullbacks inside still-strong multi-year trends

What's Going On

This is a book-wide cooldown, not a name-by-name story: every one of the 37 names in this book saw its RSI fall this cycle, most by 5 to 15 points, several by considerably more — AEHR's RSI dropped from 67.5 to 49.0 on a -24.14% weekly return, IBIDF's fell from 71.6 to 50.5, and JBL's from 61.4 to 41.0. Five names now carry a fresh collapse regime tag: FN (RSI 39.1, a fresh death-cross with price 18.8% below its 200-day), CLS (RSI 41.0, back in collapse one cycle after repairing out of it), PLAB (RSI 44.2, also a fresh death-cross), LWLG (RSI 41.5), and ALMU (RSI 39.4, thesis rated no-view). That's a real structural reversal from the two straight clean cycles this book had shown. But the long-horizon numbers tell a more nuanced story for four of the five: FN is still up 57.62% over the trailing year, CLS is up 63.53% and remains golden-cross despite trading under its 200-day today, PLAB is up 46.05%, and LWLG is up a striking 180.09% with a strongly positive alpha1y of 158.28 — all four read as violent pullbacks inside trends that are still intact on a 12-month view, not breakdowns. ALMU is the exception: its trailing year is actually negative (-23.43%), it sits 17% below its 200-day, and its thesis carries a no-view rating — the collapse tag there looks earned rather than noisy.

Two names deserve a volume caveat before their prints mean anything. IBIDF's RSI fell from 71.6 to 50.5 this cycle, but it again traded zero shares — the same caveat this name carried the prior cycle, now stretching to a third straight period of unconfirmed pricing. NGKIF, now the lowest RSI in the book at 25.4 (down from 41.3), did print real volume this time — 300 shares against a 40-share average, a 7.5x relative-volume spike — but the absolute size is still thin enough to treat cautiously. Notably, NGKIF's own longer-horizon numbers argue against reading its RSI as a breakdown: it's still up 108.82% over the trailing year and sits 9% above its 200-day, which makes this look more like an oversold pullback inside an intact trend than a broken thesis.

AEHR's -24.14% weekly return is the sharpest single-week move in the book, and on its own it would read as alarming. But AEHR is still up 8.76% on the month, 476.05% over the trailing year, and sits 70.6% above its 200-day — this is a textbook violent-pullback-inside-a-secular-uptrend setup rather than damage to the underlying trend. KOPN remains the strongest confirmed name in the book on RSI (58.3, still the highest reading despite cooling from 66.1), with a 188% trailing-year gain and price 49.9% above its 200-day.

What Changed Since 2026-08-14

  • Collapse pocket reopened from zero to five: FN, CLS (re-collapse after last cycle's repair), PLAB, LWLG, ALMU — up from zero collapse-tagged names for two straight cycles.
  • FN: RSI 58.9 → 39.1, the sharpest RSI drop in the book (-19.8); fresh death-cross; 30-day widened to -14.99%; still +57.62% over the trailing year.
  • JBL: RSI 61.4 → 41.0 (-20.4); 30-day narrowed only slightly to -1.6%.
  • AEHR: RSI 67.5 → 49.0 (-18.5); 7-day flipped to -24.14%, the sharpest weekly move in the book; 30-day still +8.76%; 1-year +476.05%.
  • IBIDF: RSI 71.6 → 50.5 (-21.1); zero shares traded for a third straight cycle — still unconfirmed pricing.
  • NGKIF: RSI 41.3 → 25.4, now the lowest in the book; this cycle printed real (if thin) volume at 7.5x average, unlike the two prior zero-volume cycles; 1-year still +108.82%.
  • CLS: RSI 49.5 → 41.0; regime downgraded back to collapse one cycle after repairing out of it.
  • SNDK: RSI 57.0 → 53.7, the smallest RSI drop in the book; 30-day flipped back to -0.2% (was +1.62%).
  • KOPN: RSI 66.1 → 58.3; still the highest reading in the book despite the cooling; 30-day still +34.4%.
  • ALMU: RSI 54.1 → 39.4; regime dropped to collapse; thesis rated no-view; the one collapse name also negative on the trailing year (-23.43%).

How To Read The Board

Regime labels describe chart structure, not a buy/sell call, and this cycle is the clearest case yet for reading them alongside the trailing-year numbers before calling anything a breakdown. FN, CLS, PLAB, and LWLG all just earned a collapse tag, but three of the four are still up 46% to 180% over the trailing year and the fourth (CLS) remains golden-cross on its longer moving averages even while trading under its 200-day today — that combination reads as a deep, sharp pullback inside a trend that hasn't actually broken, not the start of a new downtrend. ALMU is the one name in that group where the annual number agrees with the short-term tag: negative on the year, below its 200-day, thesis rated no-view. IBIDF's zero-volume print for a third straight cycle means its RSI number still can't be trusted either direction. NGKIF's real (if thin) volume this cycle is a meaningful upgrade in data quality even as its RSI hit a fresh low for the book.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Signal
KOPN $5.04 58.3 $4.38 +15.0% -8.36% +34.4% pullback
LPTH $14.42 57.5 $12.47 +15.6% -4.88% +18.88% pullback
SNDK $1596.08 53.7 $1381.13 +15.6% -2.8% -0.2% pullback
LITE $866.71 52.5 $817.31 +6.0% -6.39% +4.46% pullback (thesis: intact)
OPTX $8.51 51.6 $7.79 +9.2% -3.39% +2.41% pullback
IBIDF $117.90 50.5 $110.98 +6.2% -14.69% +9.45% pullback (zero volume, 3rd cycle — unconfirmed)
IQEPF $0.61 50.0 $0.60 +1.0% -6.15% -6.15% pullback
AXTI $70.74 49.9 $69.10 +2.4% -13.34% +33.52% pullback
AAOI $124.82 49.2 $121.26 +2.9% -16.97% +12.94% pullback
AEHR $101.73 49.0 $103.37 -1.6% -24.14% +8.76% pullback
ONTO $293.33 48.2 $290.85 +0.9% -11.62% -0.65% pullback
LAZR $43.85 48.1 $42.51 +3.1% -7.34% +6.61% too-young
POET $8.25 47.3 $8.17 +1.0% -13.69% +7.84% pullback
FORM $114.16 47.2 $114.56 -0.3% -13.16% +0.68% pullback
HIMX $13.79 46.8 $13.80 -0.1% -9.4% +1.25% pullback
SIVEF $3.91 46.4 $3.80 +3.0% -11.74% +0.77% too-young
VIAV $38.90 46.4 $39.16 -0.7% -10.63% -7.93% pullback
CIEN $395.79 46.3 $397.57 -0.4% -7.63% -0.34% pullback (thesis: intact-but-priced)
SOI.PA €109.80 45.7 €115.77 -5.2% -15.02% +14.35% pullback
SMTC $124.09 45.7 $127.63 -2.8% -11.59% -9.38% pullback
FLTCF $3.30 45.2 $3.34 -1.3% -4.07% -2.65% pullback
COHR $289.52 45.0 $304.46 -4.9% -11.21% -7.26% pullback
TSEM $222.59 44.5 $233.30 -4.6% -16.07% -10.8% pullback
6779.T ¥2,732 44.4 ¥2,791.8 -2.1% -11.87% -4.14% pullback
PLAB $30.51 44.2 $31.49 -3.1% -8.43% -2.34% collapse (death-cross)
GLW $149.84 44.1 $152.44 -1.7% -9.7% -2.74% pullback
MXL $66.61 43.8 $69.81 -4.6% -21.44% -23.26% pullback
MTSI $266.61 42.1 $280.04 -4.8% -15.72% -5.66% pullback
LWLG $6.19 41.5 $6.91 -10.4% -18.31% -8.57% collapse
CLS $296.55 41.0 $329.35 -10.0% -11.49% -11.61% collapse (down from pullback)
JBL $313.21 41.0 $333.10 -6.0% -13.82% -1.6% pullback
ALAB $284.97 40.7 $307.54 -7.3% -11.51% -13.88% pullback
ALMU $14.77 39.4 $16.56 -10.8% -20.04% -7.75% collapse (thesis: no-view)
FN $436.67 39.1 $500.21 -12.7% -23.4% -14.99% collapse (death-cross)
ALRIB.PA €9.04 37.5 €9.39 -3.7% -7.0% -9.24% pullback
LPK.DE €13.05 34.8 €14.67 -11.1% -13.29% -22.78% pullback
NGKIF $31.95 25.4 $34.23 -6.7% -10.15% -15.92% pullback (thin volume, 7.5x rel.)

Tier Analysis

Tier A — RSI 50+, confirmed strength (7): KOPN, LPTH, SNDK, LITE, OPTX, IBIDF (unconfirmed — zero volume), IQEPF.

Tier B — Mid-book, RSI 45-50 (15): AXTI, AAOI, AEHR, ONTO, LAZR, POET, FORM, HIMX, SIVEF, VIAV, CIEN, SOI.PA, SMTC, FLTCF, COHR.

Tier C — Cooling, RSI 40-45 (10): TSEM, 6779.T, PLAB (collapse), GLW, MXL, MTSI, LWLG (collapse), CLS (collapse), JBL, ALAB.

Tier D — Weakest, RSI <40 (5): ALMU (collapse, thesis no-view, negative 1y), FN (collapse, death-cross), ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE, NGKIF (lowest RSI, thin volume).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
AEHR $101.73 49.0 +8.76% Sharpest weekly drop in the book (-24.14%) sitting on top of a +476.05% trailing-year gain and price 70.6% above its 200-day — a violent pullback, not a broken trend
NGKIF $31.95 25.4 -15.92% Lowest RSI in the book, but real (if thin) volume this cycle for the first time in three; still +108.82% over the trailing year and above its 200-day
LWLG $6.19 41.5 -8.57% Fresh collapse tag, but +180.09% over the trailing year with a strongly positive alpha1y — the tag looks like short-term noise on top of a very strong secular move

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD KOPN, LPTH, SNDK, LITE, OPTX, IQEPF RSI 50+, still-strong trailing-year gains
🔍 RESEARCH AEHR, NGKIF Sharp near-term drops sitting on top of triple-digit trailing-year gains
⚠️ AVOID FN, PLAB Fresh collapse tags with fresh death-crosses; trailing year still positive but the technical structure just broke
❌ DON'T BUY ALMU Collapse regime, thesis rated no-view, and negative on the trailing year — the one collapse name with no long-horizon counter-argument
🔍 DATA CAVEAT IBIDF Zero shares traded for a third straight cycle; RSI print still cannot be trusted either direction
🔍 WATCH CLS, ALAB, MTSI, TSEM Mid-to-low RSI, still-negative 30-day reads, no fresh regime change beyond CLS's re-collapse

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Whether the five newly collapse-tagged names (FN, CLS, PLAB, LWLG, ALMU) stabilize or keep deteriorating Four of the five are still positive on the trailing year — the next cycle will show whether this was a violent pullback or the start of something worse
IBIDF's next print Zero volume for a third straight cycle; needs a real trade to confirm any RSI reading
NGKIF's volume trend First real (if thin) print in three cycles, at the lowest RSI in the book — worth watching whether volume normalizes further
AEHR's -24.14% weekly move The sharpest single-week drop in the book; still up big on the month and year, but worth confirming the pullback doesn't extend
Whether ALMU's thesis rating changes The one collapse name that's also negative on the trailing year and rated no-view — the closest thing to a genuine breakdown in this book right now

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year, SMA200): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-21 close — optical-supply-chain.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.