Optical Supply Chain Scan
Optical Supply Chain Scan
This 36-name book kept climbing this cycle — 28 of 36 names gained RSI, led by FLTCF (+13.8), MXL (+11.8), and HIMX (+10.7) — and CIEN rejoined the recovery, up 9.4 RSI points on the back of the fiscal Q3 beat-and-raise the desk already had on file. Only two names in the whole book are genuinely broken on every horizon (FN, ALMU); the other six sitting below their 200-day still carry strongly positive trailing-year returns and alpha, which argues pullback over breakdown. IBIDF is the one name to distrust outright — its price and zero-volume print are byte-identical to the last scan, a full week frozen.
Data as-of the 2026-09-11 close for 35 of 36 names; IBIDF is stuck on a 2026-09-10 bar with zero shares traded — identical price and volume to the prior scan a week ago. Comparison baseline is the September 4 scan. NGKIF was retired from this book on September 11 as a thin OTC mirror (empty history periods every night; both paper positions that held it closed September 10) — a policy retirement, not a trading signal.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 28 of 36 names gained RSI this cycle; the book's long-horizon check stays strong — only 2 of 36 names carry a negative alpha1y |
| Leaders | SMTC (RSI 65.4), SOI.PA (63.7, research-only), CLS (58.4), HIMX (58.0) — all above their 200-day with triple-digit trailing-year gains |
| Laggards | LPTH (37.8), ALMU (40.5), OPTX (40.3), LPK.DE (39.4, research-only) hold the lowest readings; ALMU remains the one name broken on every window |
| Caveat | IBIDF's price ($124.39) and zero volume are identical to the September 4 print — treat as unconfirmed, not flat; NGKIF retired this cycle as a thin OTC mirror |
What's Going On
The book extended last cycle's bounce rather than giving it back: 28 of 36 names gained RSI ground, only 6 lost ground, and 2 were flat. FLTCF led at +13.8 points (39.4 → 53.2) — the volume anomaly flagged last cycle (7.9x average with no price move) has resolved; relative volume is back to 0.86x this cycle, ordinary participation. MXL (+11.8), HIMX (+10.7), VIAV (+10.3), and 6779.T (+9.6, Tokyo-listed, research-only) round out the top gainers. CIEN rejoined the recovery at +9.4 points (33.9 → 43.3) — its own news receipt (fetched September 11, newest article September 10) carries the fiscal Q3 press release and earnings-call transcript already on file: $1.67B revenue (+37% YoY), adjusted EPS $2.11 (+215% YoY), and raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $6.42B, attributed by management to AI-driven demand and backlog growth. The stock is still 8.1% below its 200-day, so this reads as a recovering-not-resolved earnings beat, not a fresh catalyst.
The horizon check is the more important story this cycle. Eight names — POET, PLAB, CIEN, FN, ALMU, OPTX, LWLG, LPTH — sit below their 200-day (down from 9 last cycle: CLS and FLTCF both crossed back above). But of those eight, six (POET, PLAB, CIEN, OPTX, LWLG, LPTH) carry strongly positive alpha1y and change1y — POET's alpha1y is +32.94, CIEN's is +147.58, LWLG's is +54.14 — which is the textbook deep-pullback-in-an-intact-trend case, not breakdown language. Only FN (alpha1y -1.74, though improved from -6.16 last cycle) and ALMU (alpha1y -25.98, change1y -9.76%) are genuinely broken on every window in this book.
IQEPF was the session's sharpest decliner — RSI fell 11.8 points (55.4 → 43.6) on a -6.45% single-day move and a -12.12% week; the news receipt on file (fetched September 1) is stale relative to this drop, so no cause is confirmed — this is a research-only foreign ADR and no cause has been checked in stock-events for this date. SNDK cooled 7.6 RSI points (61.2 → 53.6) after last cycle's 11.9% single-day pop; its own news receipt (fetched September 11, newest article September 8) carries only generic stock-overview pages, no specific driver for this week's giveback — cause unknown for the pullback specifically, though the name remains up an extraordinary amount over the trailing year.
CLS is worth flagging on its own: RSI rose to 58.4 and the stock sits 5.4% above its 200-day, yet its death-cross flag is still set from an earlier SMA50/SMA200 crossover — a lagging technical marker that hasn't caught up with the price recovery. Treat the death-cross tag here as stale, not a live warning.
What Changed Since September 4
- NGKIF retired from the book entirely on September 11 — thin OTC mirror of NGK Insulators with empty history periods every night; the two paper ledgers that held it (bench-signals, bench-signals-trail) both closed the position September 10, clearing the one exception that had kept it tracked.
- FLTCF: RSI 39.4 → 53.2 (+13.8), largest gain in the book; last cycle's 7.9x-average-volume anomaly with no price move has resolved to ordinary 0.86x volume.
- CIEN: RSI 33.9 → 43.3 (+9.4); fiscal Q3 beat-and-raise (EPS $2.11 vs $1.73 est., revenue +37% YoY) now confirmed via a fresh September 11 news pull; still 8.1% below its 200-day.
- IQEPF: RSI 55.4 → 43.6 (-11.8), the sharpest decline in the book; no confirmed cause on file for this move.
- SNDK: RSI 61.2 → 53.6 (-7.6), giving back part of last cycle's 11.9% single-day pop; no specific driver confirmed in this week's news pull.
- ALAB: RSI 52.2 → 47.4 (-4.8); TSEM: RSI 49.2 → 45.1 (-4.1); OPTX: RSI 44.3 → 40.3 (-4.0).
- Eight names below the 200-day this cycle (down from nine): CLS and FLTCF both crossed back above; FN, ALMU, POET, PLAB, CIEN, OPTX, LWLG, LPTH remain below.
- IBIDF's price and zero volume are unchanged from the September 4 print — a full cycle with no confirmed trade.
How To Read The Board
Read this book's below-200-day names in two groups, because lumping them together would mislabel most of the group. Six of the eight — POET, PLAB, CIEN, OPTX, LWLG, LPTH — carry strongly positive alpha1y and change1y even while sitting under their 200-day; that's a trend under test, not a broken one. Only FN and ALMU show genuine multi-window damage (negative alpha1y alongside the technical weakness) and deserve the more cautious label. CIEN's earnings beat is now the confirmed driver behind its recovery, not an open question. IBIDF's frozen price and volume across two full cycles is a real data-quality flag — the same symptom (empty trading, no confirmed print) that got NGKIF retired this cycle — worth a direct look before the next scan treats its RSI as live.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMTC | $167.24 | 65.4 | $140.11 | +19.4% | +13.08% | +19.46% | uptrend |
| SOI.PA | €141.15 | 63.7 | €120.30 | +17.3% | +10.02% | +7.18% | pullback (research-only) |
| CLS | $346.55 | 58.4 | $311.90 | +11.1% | +10.95% | +2.09% | pullback (stale death-cross flag) |
| HIMX | $14.73 | 58.0 | $13.97 | +5.4% | +7.68% | -2.39% | pullback |
| GLW | $166.40 | 56.9 | $155.14 | +7.3% | +7.84% | -0.62% | pullback |
| IBIDF | $124.39 | 56.9 | $125.08 | -0.5% | 0.0% | +26.41% | pullback (frozen bar, zero volume, research-only) |
| MXL | $74.57 | 56.4 | $66.98 | +11.3% | +18.86% | +0.32% | pullback |
| LITE | $927.03 | 53.9 | $903.05 | +2.7% | +5.19% | -0.58% | pullback (thesis: intact) |
| FORM | $114.95 | 53.9 | $110.95 | +3.6% | +10.64% | -10.73% | pullback |
| SNDK | $1,633.35 | 53.6 | $1,602.13 | +1.9% | -6.13% | +21.5% | pullback |
| FLTCF | $3.40 | 53.2 | $3.24 | +5.0% | +14.48% | -4.76% | pullback (research-only; volume anomaly resolved) |
| COHR | $305.37 | 52.6 | $292.59 | +4.4% | +8.34% | -14.14% | pullback |
| KOPN | $4.56 | 51.7 | $4.68 | -2.5% | +6.54% | -9.16% | pullback |
| LAZR | $43.84 | 51.7 | $43.88 | -0.1% | +2.93% | -7.94% | too-young |
| 6779.T | ¥2,844 | 51.4 | ¥2,776.95 | +2.4% | +9.22% | -0.56% | pullback (research-only) |
| VIAV | $38.75 | 51.2 | $38.20 | +1.4% | +11.16% | -10.11% | pullback |
| AEHR | $94.69 | 50.7 | $97.32 | -2.7% | +9.77% | -26.73% | pullback |
| JBL | $318.08 | 50.2 | $316.36 | +0.5% | +2.42% | -13.13% | pullback |
| ONTO | $281.26 | 49.5 | $286.40 | -1.8% | +4.94% | -16.63% | pullback |
| POET | $7.95 | 49.1 | $8.05 | -1.2% | +0.38% | -10.37% | collapse (below 200-day, alpha1y +32.94; thesis: intact) |
| MTSI | $274.90 | 48.9 | $274.95 | 0.0% | +2.21% | -11.54% | pullback |
| AXTI | $64.77 | 48.9 | $68.01 | -4.8% | +5.08% | -17.46% | pullback |
| ALAB | $291.22 | 47.4 | $293.16 | -0.7% | -6.18% | -8.65% | pullback |
| PLAB | $28.99 | 45.5 | $29.71 | -2.4% | -0.48% | -13.44% | downtrend (below 200-day, alpha1y +10.99) |
| TSEM | $211.52 | 45.1 | $220.54 | -4.1% | -4.87% | -18.74% | pullback |
| SIVEF | $3.05 | 44.8 | $3.33 | -8.4% | +4.45% | -32.37% | too-young |
| AAOI | $105.36 | 44.4 | $115.75 | -9.0% | -0.16% | -23.7% | pullback |
| IQEPF | $0.58 | 43.6 | $0.63 | -8.4% | -12.12% | -10.77% | pullback (research-only; sharpest decline this cycle) |
| CIEN | $349.54 | 43.3 | $375.42 | -6.9% | +8.89% | -19.1% | collapse (below 200-day; Q3 beat-and-raise confirmed; thesis: intact-but-priced) |
| ALRIB.PA | €8.60 | 41.9 | €8.89 | -3.2% | +0.47% | -13.65% | pullback (research-only) |
| FN | $414.58 | 41.5 | $439.54 | -5.7% | +1.76% | -27.51% | collapse (below 200-day, alpha1y -1.74 — the durable weak name) |
| ALMU | $13.41 | 40.5 | $14.18 | -5.4% | +3.63% | -25.71% | collapse (below 200-day, negative 1y and alpha; thesis: no-view) |
| OPTX | $7.10 | 40.3 | $8.09 | -12.3% | -6.21% | -18.39% | collapse (below 200-day, alpha1y +284.91) |
| LPK.DE | €12.90 | 39.4 | €13.41 | -3.8% | -3.01% | -21.58% | pullback (research-only) |
| LWLG | $5.23 | 38.7 | $5.82 | -10.2% | -2.24% | -34.71% | collapse (below 200-day, alpha1y +54.14) |
| LPTH | $9.20 | 37.8 | $11.91 | -22.8% | -4.86% | -32.99% | collapse (below 200-day, alpha1y +57.37) |
Tier Analysis
Tier A — RSI 50+ (14): SMTC, SOI.PA, CLS, HIMX, GLW, IBIDF (frozen bar), MXL, LITE (thesis intact), FORM, SNDK, FLTCF, COHR, KOPN, LAZR (too-young), 6779.T, VIAV.
Tier B — Oversold-adjacent, RSI 40-50 (14): AEHR, JBL, ONTO, POET (below 200-day, alpha positive), MTSI, AXTI, ALAB, PLAB (below 200-day, alpha positive), TSEM, SIVEF (too-young), AAOI, IQEPF (sharpest decline), CIEN (below 200-day, beat confirmed), ALRIB.PA.
Tier C — Weakest, RSI <40 (5): FN (only durable weak name with negative alpha), ALMU (broken on every horizon), OPTX (below 200-day, alpha positive), LPK.DE, LWLG, LPTH.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIEN | $349.54 | 43.3 | -19.1% | Confirmed fiscal Q3 beat-and-raise now recovering RSI from a 33.9 low; still 8.1% below its 200-day — the print is confirmed, the technical recovery is not yet complete |
| POET, LWLG, LPTH | — | 37.8-49.1 | -11% to -33% | Below their 200-day but all three carry strongly positive alpha1y — the horizon math argues pullback over breakdown; none has a confirmed volume-backed reversal yet |
| MXL, HIMX | — | 56-58 | -2% to flat | The book's two biggest RSI gainers this cycle, both well above their 200-day with triple-digit trailing-year returns |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | SMTC, CLS, HIMX, GLW, MXL, LITE | RSI 50+ with strongly positive trailing-year gains and alpha |
| 🔍 RESEARCH | CIEN | Fiscal Q3 beat-and-raise now confirmed by a fresh news pull; RSI recovering but still below the 200-day |
| ⚠️ AVOID | FN, ALMU | The only two names in the book with negative alpha1y — genuine multi-window damage, not a pullback |
| 🔍 WATCH | POET, PLAB, OPTX, LWLG, LPTH | Below their 200-day but all carry positive alpha1y — trend under test, not broken |
| 🔍 DATA CAVEAT | IBIDF | Price and volume unchanged from a full week ago — treat as unconfirmed, not flat |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| IBIDF's next print | Byte-identical price and zero volume across two full scan cycles — the same empty-history symptom that got NGKIF retired this cycle |
| CIEN's RSI recovery | Fiscal Q3 beat-and-raise is confirmed; whether the stock closes the gap to its 200-day (currently -8.1%) is the open technical question |
| IQEPF's next session | Sharpest RSI decline in the book this cycle with no confirmed cause on file |
| Whether FN and ALMU's alpha1y deteriorates further | The only two names in this book failing the long-horizon check on every window |
| SNDK's giveback | Cooled 7.6 RSI points off last cycle's pop with no specific driver confirmed in this week's news |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year, SMA200, volume): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-11 close — optical-supply-chain.
- CIEN fiscal Q3 results: news receipt fetched 2026-09-11 (Ciena investor-relations press release, 2026-09-03; earnings-call transcript, 2026-09-04).
- NGKIF retirement: watchlist changelog, 2026-09-11 (thin OTC mirror, empty history periods; two paper positions closed 2026-09-10).
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.