Optical Supply Chain Scan

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Optical Supply Chain Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 55 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusconfirmedprior scanresearch/scans/2026-09-18-optical-supply-chain.md

Twenty-four of the 28 names in this book closed red today, giving back part of a rally that carried through the three trading days since the last scan — but the week underneath is still overwhelmingly positive, with 27 of 28 names up on a trailing five-session basis and only Aeluma (ALMU) down, at -1.86%. The more durable change is that the book's negative-alpha group widened from two names to three: Lightwave Logic's trailing-year alpha turned negative for the first time, joining Fabrinet and Aeluma as the names broken on every long window.

Numbers are the settled September 23 close for all 28 names, three trading sessions after the September 18 scan (Monday September 21, Tuesday September 22, and today). LAZR still carries no 200-day or trailing-year comparison (too-young regime). No market-wide brief for today's session exists in the corpus as of this scan, so today's broad pullback is reported as a tape fact with no confirmed macro cause. Comparison baseline is the September 18 scan.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 24 of 28 names closed red today, but 27 of 28 are still up on the trailing week; a pullback inside a rally, not a reversal
Leaders FORM (RSI 64.8, +8.1 points since last scan), ALAB (63.6, +33.91% on the week, no cause on file), CLS (62.0), MXL (61.3)
Laggards LPTH (RSI 43.2), FN (43.6, durable weak name), AAOI (44.3, newly below its 200-day), LWLG (44.5, alpha turned negative)
What changed The negative-alpha group widened from two names (FN, ALMU) to three — Lightwave Logic's trailing-year alpha crossed to -3.41 from +23.20. VIAV and OPTX both reclaimed their 200-day averages this week
Caveat Today's broad red day (24 of 28) has no dated market-wide cause on file; ALAB's 33.91% week and AXTI's -6.18% today are both unexplained by any fresh news pull

What's Going On

The book cooled off today after riding a strong three-session run. Every name but four — VIAV, CLS, FORM, OPTX — closed lower today, and the RSI compression that produced (LPTH's 43.2 is now the book's floor, versus 39.8 last scan) reflects a broad giveback rather than a name-specific problem. But the trailing week tells the opposite story: 27 of 28 names are still positive over the last five sessions, several by a wide margin — Astera Labs is up 33.91%, FormFactor 25.22%, MaxLinear 21.31%, Sandisk 19.51%, Syntec Optics 19.0%, and Onto Innovation up 15.87% on price. Aeluma is the lone name still down over the week, at -1.86%.

Astera Labs' surge has no dated explanation. Its news pull completed September 22 and returns nothing newer than an August 24 aggregator page describing the stock 39% below its 52-week high with a $389.95 average analyst target — well below today's $360.46 close, meaning the stock has already run past that target. No company filing or dated event on the desk's record explains a 33.91% week. AXT's move runs the other direction: a September 21 MarketBeat piece attributed part of its recent strength to analyst upgrades and rising indium phosphide substrate demand for AI applications, but that predates today's -6.18% drop — the single largest one-day decline in the book — and nothing on file explains the reversal.

Two names reclaimed ground that mattered structurally. Viavi and Syntec Optics both crossed back above their 200-day averages this week — Viavi by 1.3%, Syntec Optics by 1.1% — after both sat fractionally below it in the last scan. That trims the below-200-day group from nine names to eight. Working the other direction, Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) fell below its 200-day for the first time in this book's recent record, now 4.9% under it.

The one genuinely new structural finding is Lightwave Logic. Its trailing-year alpha crossed from +23.20 in the last scan to -3.41 today — the third name, after Fabrinet and Aeluma, to fail every long-horizon check the desk runs on this book. That group has held at two names for several scans; today it grew.

What Changed Since Prior Scan

  • 20 of 28 names gained RSI ground since the September 18 close despite today's broad red session; ALAB (+10.8 points), OPTX (+9.4), CLS and FORM (+8.1 each) led the gains. COHR (-5.3) and SMTC (-9.3) were the largest declines — SMTC in particular cooled from the most extended reading in the book (RSI 67.2) back to 57.9, still up 40.05% on the month.
  • VIAV: crossed to +1.3% above its 200-day, from -0.9% below last scan — reclaimed.
  • OPTX: crossed to +1.1% above its 200-day, from below last scan — reclaimed.
  • AAOI: fell to -4.9% below its 200-day, newly joining the below-200-day group; the group holds at eight names (CIEN, LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, POET, ALMU, AAOI), down from nine as the two reclaims offset the one new entrant.
  • LWLG: trailing-year alpha crossed from +23.20 to -3.41 — the negative-alpha group widened from two names (FN, ALMU) to three.
  • FN: alpha improved marginally to -10.34 from -12.23; still negative. ALMU: alpha worsened to -43.63 from -34.80; still negative and thesis-rated no-view.
  • AXTI fell 6.18% today, the largest single-day decline in the book, after a September 21 news item credited some of its recent strength to analyst upgrades and AI-driven indium phosphide demand — that item predates today's reversal and does not explain it.

How To Read The Board

Separate today from the week, because they point in opposite directions in this book more than in most. Today is a giveback: 24 of 28 red, RSI compressing from last scan's extended highs back toward the middle of the range. The week is still the stronger evidence, and it says the rally that started before the last scan carried through Monday and Tuesday before today's pause — 27 of 28 names remain positive on a trailing five-session basis.

The horizon check is the more durable read. Eight names sit below their 200-day average, but five of those eight — CIEN, PLAB, LPTH, POET, AAOI — carry positive trailing-year alpha, meaning the label for them stays deep pullback rather than breakdown. The other three — FN, ALMU, and now LWLG — are negative on every long window at once; that trio is the part of this book actually broken, not merely oversold.

Astera Labs and AXT sit at opposite ends of the same problem: a week's worth of price action with no dated catalyst behind it. ALAB's 33.91% run and AXT's -6.18% reversal are both facts on the tape and nothing more until a filing or a confirmed news item explains either one.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Signal
FORM $131.26 64.8 $109.02 +20.4% +25.22% +21.65% pullback (extended; alpha +238.12)
ALAB $360.46 63.6 $296.67 +21.5% +33.91% +29.88% pullback (no cause on file; alpha +40.88)
CLS $361.84 62.0 $321.62 +12.5% +11.74% +22.84% pullback (alpha +24.67)
MXL $84.32 61.3 $69.26 +21.8% +21.31% +34.31% pullback (extended; alpha +394.33)
SNDK $1,816.57 60.1 $1,636.43 +11.0% +19.51% +21.66% pullback (alpha +1,591.53)
SMTC $169.33 57.9 $154.97 +9.3% +1.06% +40.05% uptrend (cooling from extended; alpha +160.5)
KOPN $4.87 57.6 $4.52 +7.7% +12.21% +2.74% pullback (alpha +70.82)
PLAB $30.35 55.6 $28.74 +5.6% +8.98% +2.78% downtrend (below 200-day; alpha +6.95)
TSEM $230.50 54.8 $213.83 +7.8% +14.0% +9.19% pullback (alpha +220.58)
AXTI $72.98 54.7 $64.89 +12.5% +13.5% +11.59% pullback (-6.18% today, biggest drop in book)
LITE $937.00 54.1 $912.92 +2.6% +1.91% +12.87% pullback (thesis: intact; alpha +455.6)
AEHR $97.38 53.4 $88.20 +10.4% +15.58% +0.99% pullback (alpha +173.79)
ONTO $282.31 53.0 $267.85 +5.4% +15.87% -0.21% pullback (alpha +90.7)
HIMX $14.28 52.9 $13.86 +3.0% +9.43% +6.25% pullback (alpha +48.56)
MTSI $275.84 51.7 $267.03 +3.3% +9.57% +7.15% pullback (alpha +98.39)
LAZR $44.30 51.7 $43.25 +2.4% +4.24% +6.29% too-young (no 200-day/alpha comparison)
COHR $300.60 50.8 $290.55 +3.5% +3.68% +9.11% pullback (alpha +159.28)
OPTX $7.58 50.4 $7.48 +1.4% +19.0% -8.56% pullback (reclaimed 200-day this week; alpha +370.13)
GLW $154.48 49.9 $152.98 +1.0% +7.16% +6.14% pullback (alpha +74.94)
JBL $308.75 48.7 $304.92 +1.3% +3.87% +1.27% pullback (alpha +15.92)
POET $7.80 48.7 $7.72 +1.0% +5.41% +0.65% collapse (below 200-day; thesis: intact; alpha +14.23)
VIAV $36.43 48.3 $36.16 +0.8% +5.69% -1.41% pullback (reclaimed 200-day this week; alpha +177.78)
CIEN $355.91 47.8 $352.97 +0.8% +4.53% -4.31% collapse (below 200-day; thesis: intact-but-priced; alpha +139.4)
ALMU $13.18 45.7 $13.12 +0.5% -1.86% -3.44% collapse (below 200-day; thesis: no-view; alpha -43.63)
LWLG $5.27 44.5 $5.26 +0.2% +9.11% -9.29% collapse (below 200-day; alpha turned negative, -3.41)
AAOI $101.06 44.3 $104.46 -3.3% +4.47% -6.1% collapse (newly below 200-day; alpha +244.39)
FN $400.85 43.6 $403.83 -0.7% +2.08% -4.82% collapse (below 200-day; the durable weak name; alpha -10.34)
LPTH $9.81 43.2 $10.22 -4.0% +4.47% -25.85% collapse (below 200-day; alpha +21.24)

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI below 25): none.

Oversold (RSI 25-40): none. The book's lowest reading is LPTH at 43.2.

Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — all 28 names. The split that matters sits inside this tier: 25 of 28 names carry positive trailing-year alpha; FN, ALMU, and now LWLG are negative on every long window at once.

Entry Zones

Stock Entry zone Condition
CIEN $349-353 (near its $352.97 20-day) Still 7.9% below its 200-day with alpha +139.4 intact — a trend under test, not a breakdown
POET, LPTH, PLAB current levels Below their 200-day but all carry positive trailing-year alpha — pullback reading, none confirmed with a volume-backed reversal
AAOI current levels Newly below its 200-day this week, but alpha remains strongly positive at +244.39 — the fall is fresh, not yet a trend break
ALAB, SMTC, MXL not zones All extended (RSI 60+, well above their 20-day averages) with no dated catalyst behind their recent runs; chasing here is momentum, not a discount
FN, ALMU, LWLG not zones The three names negative on every long window; a low relative RSI here is damage, not a discount

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
SNDK, KOPN, TSEM, LITE, AEHR, ONTO, HIMX, MTSI, COHR, GLW, JBL 🟢 Working 🔒 Hold Positive trailing-year alpha, above their 200-day, cooled off today without breaking trend
ALAB, MXL, SMTC, FORM, CLS 🟠 Extended ⚠️ Avoid chasing RSI 57-65 and well above 20-day averages; ALAB and AXTI-adjacent moves lack dated causes
VIAV, OPTX 🟢 Reclaimed 200-day 🔍 Watch Crossed back above this week; confirm the reclaim holds a non-rally session
CIEN, POET, LPTH, PLAB, AAOI 🟡 Trend under test 🔍 Research Below their 200-day but positive on trailing-year alpha
FN, ALMU, LWLG 🔴 Multi-window damage ⚠️ Avoid The three names negative on trailing year and alpha; LWLG newly joined this scan
LAZR 🟡 Insufficient history 🔍 Watch Too-young regime; no 200-day or trailing-year check available

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Whether today's broad red session (24 of 28) is a one-day pause or the start of a real pullback The trailing week is still overwhelmingly positive (27 of 28); the next session decides which read is right
Astera Labs' 33.91% week No dated cause on file; the news pull returns only an August 24 page describing the stock well below current levels
AXT's -6.18% reversal today The largest single-day decline in the book, immediately following a Sept 21 item crediting analyst upgrades for its prior strength
Whether Lightwave Logic's negative alpha deepens The third name to fail every long-horizon check; watch whether the group grows to four
Whether Viavi and Syntec Optics hold their reclaimed 200-day averages Both crossed back above this week after sitting fractionally below last scan
Semtech's cooling RSI (67.2 to 57.9) Still up 40.05% on the month; whether this is healthy consolidation or the top of the run

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
The negative-alpha group widened from two names to three Lightwave Logic joined Fabrinet and Aeluma as broken on every long window — the first widening in several scans
Today's broad red session sits inside a still-positive week 24 of 28 red today against 27 of 28 up over five sessions — a pullback inside a rally, not evidence the rally reversed
Two names reclaimed their 200-day this week Viavi and Syntec Optics both crossed back above, trimming the below-200-day group from nine to eight even as AAOI newly fell below

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Reading a stale analyst-target reference as current guidance ALAB's freshest news item (Aug 24) already describes the stock well below where it trades today; it cannot explain this week's move
Treating a "why did it go up" aggregator page as a confirmed cause AXT's Sept 21 item explains prior strength, not today's reversal — the two are not the same event

Open Questions

  • What drove Astera Labs' 33.91% week, with no filing or dated event on the desk's record?
  • Does Lightwave Logic's negative alpha deepen from here, or was this a one-scan crossing?
  • Does today's broad pullback extend into a second session, or does the week's strength reassert itself?

Sources

  • Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-23 close — optical-supply-chain.
  • Astera Labs news receipt (pull completed 2026-09-22, newest article 2026-08-24, predates this week's move): latest.
  • AXT news receipt (pull completed 2026-09-22; Sept 21 item on analyst upgrades and indium phosphide demand): latest.
  • Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-18-optical-supply-chain.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.