Optical Supply Chain Scan
Optical Supply Chain Scan
The optical book closed another broad rally: 25 of 28 names finished green on Friday, MaxLinear jumped 14.99% in a day to sit 97.6% above its 200-day, and Lumentum is now within -0.57% of its 52-week high after a 539.42% trailing year. Only six names remain below their 200-day average, down from nine a week ago, and Aeluma is the single name with negative trailing-year alpha. The question this week is no longer who is broken but who is extended: three names are at RSI 70 or higher, and none of the day's biggest moves has a dated cause on file.
Numbers are the settled October 2 close for all 28 names (Friday), one week after the September 25 scan. LAZR still carries no 200-day or trailing-year comparison (too-young regime). Comparison baseline is the September 25 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 25 of 28 closed green; six names below their 200-day (from nine on September 25); one name with negative trailing-year alpha (Aeluma, from two) |
| Leaders | Lumentum (RSI 66.7, at its high), MACOM (67.7), Onto Innovation (67.6), Semtech (66.1), plus three overbought: FormFactor (72.8), Viavi (72.6), MaxLinear (71.5) |
| Laggards | POET Technologies (RSI 49.8, below its 200-day), Aeluma (47.2, below its 200-day, negative alpha), Jabil (47.4, the only name sitting below its 20-day) |
| The horizon check | 22 of 28 names are above their 200-day; Ciena sits exactly on the line (0%) with a 156.35% trailing year. Below the line: Lightwave Logic, Fabrinet, Photronics (PLAB), LightPath, POET, Aeluma |
| Caveat | MaxLinear (+14.99%), Syntec Optics (+12.7%), Applied Optoelectronics (+7.71%) are cause unknown on the day, and the whole-book rally has only a carried candidate. News was re-pulled 2026-10-03 for MaxLinear, Syntec, Applied Optoelectronics, Lumentum, Coherent, Sandisk and four others, and none carries an item on an October 2 move. For the week, X accounts on October 1 relayed a Morgan Stanley note saying Washington is discussing restrictions on Chinese 3.2T transceivers, potentially as soon as October (attributed to Morgan Stanley via X, not checked against the note). The stock-event files were checked (only Nike's October 1 earnings and Corteva's October 1 spin-off are filed), and the desk's October 1-2 article and X captures were searched by company name. Moves below with no stated cause are therefore cause unknown, not cause absent. |
What's Going On
The rally is the story. Twenty-five names closed green, the three decliners were Sandisk (-3.79%), Astera Labs (-1.71%) and Tower Semiconductor (-0.18%), and the book's trailing-month gains are large across the board: Semtech +45.6%, test-equipment name Aehr +33.61%, AXT +50.78%, MaxLinear +76.26%. MaxLinear is the extreme: 553.89% on the trailing year and 97.6% above its 200-day. Its news pull (re-pulled 2026-10-03) shows only its investor page (an earnings-date notice and a September 28 product launch), and an October 2 X post calls the day a breakout without naming a cause, so the day and the month are cause unknown (stock-events checked); the stock is extended on every measure the desk checks.
Lumentum is the cleanest leader: 45.6% above its 200-day, -0.57% from its 52-week high, trailing year 539.42% with alpha 524.42. The desk's thesis rating on it is intact. Its only dated item is a late-September officer share listing, which says nothing about Friday's 3.79% gain. A name at its high after a five-fold year is a hold, not a fresh entry.
The repair underneath is the better news. Syntec Optics rose 12.7% and now sits 18.4% above its 200-day, reversing last week's re-cross below the line; Applied Optoelectronics is 6.2% above after a 7.71% day; Fabrinet's trailing-year alpha is now positive at 10.47 though it is still 12.8% below its 200-day. What is left under the line is mostly the small, development-stage group (Lightwave Logic, POET, Aeluma) and LightPath, where the business-quality veto applies regardless of chart.
Sandisk is the one large name that gave ground (-3.79% on the day, -3.25% on the week) but it is still 50.1% above its 200-day with a 1285.52% year, a pullback inside an intact trend. News pulled 2026-10-03 carries only a MarketBeat page attributing the slide to sector sentiment, profit-taking and valuation, with no dated event; stock-events checked; cause unknown.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
- Names below their 200-day: six today (LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, POET, ALMU) versus nine in the September 25 scan. Ciena, Applied Optoelectronics and Syntec Optics are out of that group.
- Negative trailing-year alpha: one name (Aeluma, alpha -37.14) versus two on September 25; Fabrinet crossed to positive.
- Breadth: 25 of 28 green today after a 24-of-28 green session on September 25, so the book has now rallied in back-to-back scans.
- Overbought count: three names at RSI 70 or higher (FORM, VIAV, MXL); no name is below RSI 40 (lowest is Aeluma at 47.2).
- MaxLinear remains the largest single-day mover in the book for a second scan running (14.99% today).
How To Read The Board
Two layers. The short layer (RSI, vs SMA20) says the book is extended: every name except Jabil is above its 20-day, and eight are more than 15% above it. The long layer (trailing year, 200-day, alpha) says the book is in a durable uptrend with a small unrepaired tail. Do not read the short layer as a sell signal in names with a triple-digit trailing year; read it as a reason not to chase.
Names under their 200-day with positive trailing-year alpha (Lightwave Logic, Fabrinet, LightPath, POET, Photronics) are trends under test, not breakdowns. Aeluma is the one that fails every long window and is rated no-view.
Source limits: this board is price and RSI against the 20-, 50- and 200-day lines. It carries no insider dollars, no estimates and no filings. A low or high RSI here is screen evidence, not a setup, and the desk's thesis rating is unrated for most names; only Lumentum, Ciena and POET carry one.
Price Table
Rows are ordered by RSI, highest first. Tape cells are live values for the October 2 close; the Signal column is the desk's label.
| Stock | As of | Price ($) | RSI | SMA20 ($) | vs SMA20 (%) | 7D (%) | 30D (%) | 1Y (%) | vs SMA200 (%) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORM | 2026-10-02 | 149.15 | 72.8 | 122.19 | 22.1 | 15.01 | 54.43 | 278.36 | 37.4 | 🔴 overbought; above 200-day |
| VIAV | 2026-10-02 | 47.1 | 72.6 | 38.23 | 23.2 | 15.78 | 36.52 | 268.83 | 28 | 🔴 overbought; above 200-day |
| MXL | 2026-10-02 | 105.93 | 71.5 | 80.51 | 31.6 | 12.88 | 76.26 | 553.89 | 97.6 | 🔴 extended: +76.26% on the month |
| MTSI | 2026-10-02 | 321.6 | 67.7 | 276.18 | 16.4 | 12.62 | 24.86 | 151.07 | 17.7 | pullback; above 200-day |
| ONTO | 2026-10-02 | 327.77 | 67.6 | 279.12 | 17.4 | 13.95 | 28.76 | 134.41 | 29.2 | pullback; above 200-day |
| LITE | 2026-10-02 | 1085.42 | 66.7 | 941.73 | 15.3 | 15.27 | 24.68 | 539.42 | 45.6 | 🟠 at its high; intact thesis; extended |
| SMTC | 2026-10-02 | 194.88 | 66.1 | 171.1 | 13.9 | 6.9 | 45.6 | 167.22 | 66.7 | uptrend; above 200-day |
| CLS | 2026-10-02 | 387.32 | 65.5 | 345.66 | 12.1 | 5.99 | 39.44 | 54.37 | 17.1 | pullback; above 200-day |
| OPTX | 2026-10-02 | 9.14 | 63.6 | 7.39 | 23.7 | 23.51 | 21.38 | 482.17 | 18.4 | pullback; above 200-day |
| AXTI | 2026-10-02 | 85.87 | 62.7 | 71.45 | 20.2 | 8.78 | 50.78 | 1727.02 | 42.3 | pullback; above 200-day |
| FN | 2026-10-02 | 463.69 | 61.7 | 408.78 | 13.4 | 11.09 | 17.29 | 25.47 | -12.8 | 🟡 below 200-day; alpha now positive |
| LAZR | 2026-10-02 | 48.28 | 61.7 | 44.09 | 9.5 | 7.55 | 15.97 | n/a | n/a | too young: no 200-day |
| HIMX | 2026-10-02 | 15.24 | 61.2 | 14.09 | 8.2 | 5.54 | 12.89 | 75.78 | 23.4 | pullback; above 200-day |
| PLAB | 2026-10-02 | 31.49 | 60.9 | 29.49 | 6.8 | 3.59 | 12.99 | 28.11 | -12.3 | downtrend; below 200-day |
| COHR | 2026-10-02 | 337.04 | 60.7 | 298.22 | 13 | 13.93 | 25.46 | 198.82 | 16.6 | pullback; above 200-day |
| AEHR | 2026-10-02 | 107.21 | 59.5 | 94.94 | 12.9 | 2.7 | 33.61 | 232.43 | 54 | pullback; above 200-day |
| CIEN | 2026-10-02 | 391.34 | 59 | 349.95 | 11.8 | 9.65 | 10.5 | 156.35 | 0 | 🟢 on the 200-day line; intact-but-priced |
| ALAB | 2026-10-02 | 350.33 | 58.4 | 320.64 | 9.3 | -3.92 | 27.8 | 67.14 | 45.3 | pullback; above 200-day |
| AAOI | 2026-10-02 | 115.59 | 57.5 | 103.18 | 12 | 13.99 | 12.08 | 313.12 | 6.2 | pullback; above 200-day |
| TSEM | 2026-10-02 | 240.86 | 57.4 | 221.42 | 8.8 | 4.51 | 16.46 | 216.13 | 22.5 | pullback; above 200-day |
| KOPN | 2026-10-02 | 4.91 | 57 | 4.63 | 5.9 | -1.6 | 14.45 | 85.98 | 34.3 | pullback; above 200-day |
| GLW | 2026-10-02 | 164.19 | 56.6 | 156.01 | 5.2 | 4.75 | 13.92 | 98.97 | 9.1 | pullback; above 200-day |
| LPTH | 2026-10-02 | 11.04 | 54.7 | 9.97 | 10.7 | 10.62 | 15.72 | 35.13 | -8.8 | collapse; below 200-day |
| LWLG | 2026-10-02 | 5.7 | 53.8 | 5.21 | 9.4 | 7.34 | 12.87 | 31.64 | -21.8 | 🟡 below 200-day; development-stage (quality veto) |
| SNDK | 2026-10-02 | 1719.99 | 52.7 | 1713.45 | 0.4 | -3.25 | 10.72 | 1285.52 | 50.1 | 🟡 pullback in intact trend |
| POET | 2026-10-02 | 7.79 | 49.8 | 7.75 | 0.5 | 0.26 | 6.86 | 19.85 | -6.7 | 🟡 below 200-day; thesis intact; development-stage (quality veto) |
| JBL | 2026-10-02 | 304.41 | 47.4 | 306.02 | -0.5 | -3.89 | 1.68 | 41.13 | 0.9 | pullback; above 200-day |
| ALMU | 2026-10-02 | 13.12 | 47.2 | 13.02 | 0.7 | -1.28 | 2.1 | -22.14 | -25.2 | 🔴 fails every long window; no-view |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): none.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): none. The lowest RSI in the book is Aeluma at 47.2.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+): all 28 names. Overbought (70+): Viavi (72.6), FormFactor (72.8), MaxLinear (71.5). Near overbought (65-70): MACOM (67.7), Onto Innovation (67.6), Lumentum (66.7), Semtech (66.1), Celestica (65.5).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| LITE | Pullback toward its 20-day average (941.73) rather than the current price | Intact thesis, at its 52-week high; the trend is not in doubt, the entry price is |
| CIEN | Its 200-day line, where it sits now (vs 200-day 0%) | Trailing year 156.35%, -38.61% from its high: a deep pullback in an intact trend, rated intact-but-priced |
| GLW | Near its 20-day (156.01) | Above its 200-day by 9.1% with a 98.97% year; the least extended large name (RSI 56.6) |
| JBL | Its 20-day (306.02) is the line to hold | The one name below its 20-day, essentially on its 200-day (0.9%) |
| SNDK | Its 20-day (1713.45) is the reference | Pullback in an intact trend; no zone until it stops falling |
| MXL, VIAV, FORM, AXTI, MTSI | None: extended | RSI 62-73 and 16-32% above the 20-day after month-long runs; wait for a flag |
| LWLG, POET, ALMU, LPTH | No zone | Small, development-stage names; business-quality veto, and four of the six sub-200-day names |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| LITE, GLW, CIEN | 🟢 Intact trend | 🔒 Hold | Hold winners; add only on pullbacks to the 20-day |
| MXL, VIAV, FORM | 🔴 Overbought | ⚠️ Avoid chasing | RSI 70+ after large month-long runs; no dated cause for MaxLinear or Viavi |
| JBL, SNDK, ALAB | 🟡 Pullback | 🔍 Watch | Soft day or week inside intact trends |
| FN, PLAB, LPTH | 🟡 Below 200-day, positive alpha | 🔍 Watch | Trend under test; the 200-day is the line |
| LWLG, POET, ALMU | 🔴 Quality veto | ❌ Don't buy | Development-stage; Aeluma fails every long window |
| OPTX, AAOI, KOPN | 🟡 Sharp rebound | 🔍 Watch | Large single-day gains, cause unknown; OPTX reclaimed its 200-day |
| LAZR | 🟡 Too young | 🔍 Watch | No 200-day or trailing-year comparison yet |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether the 25-of-28 green breadth survives a pullback | Back-to-back rally scans with 3 names at RSI 70+ is when this book usually gives some back |
| MaxLinear's 97.6% gap above its 200-day | The most extended name; a flag, not a chase |
| Lumentum holding its high | -0.57% from the 52-week high; the book's thesis-intact leader |
| Whether the six sub-200-day names reclaim | Fabrinet (-12.8%) and Photronics (-12.3%) are the closest |
| Aeluma's alpha (-37.14) | The only name failing every long window |
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-10-02 close — optical-supply-chain.
- Cause checks: news receipts under stocks<SYM>/news/latest.json
(all fetched on or before 2026-10-01), stock-event files inresearch/stock-events/` (2026-10-01-nke-earnings, 2026-10-01-vylr-spinoff), capture articles in articles. - Tradability: _securities.
- Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-25-optical-supply-chain.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.