Optical Supply Chain Scan

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Optical Supply Chain Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 52 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusconfirmedprior scanresearch/scans/2026-09-25-optical-supply-chain.md

The optical book closed another broad rally: 25 of 28 names finished green on Friday, MaxLinear jumped 14.99% in a day to sit 97.6% above its 200-day, and Lumentum is now within -0.57% of its 52-week high after a 539.42% trailing year. Only six names remain below their 200-day average, down from nine a week ago, and Aeluma is the single name with negative trailing-year alpha. The question this week is no longer who is broken but who is extended: three names are at RSI 70 or higher, and none of the day's biggest moves has a dated cause on file.

Numbers are the settled October 2 close for all 28 names (Friday), one week after the September 25 scan. LAZR still carries no 200-day or trailing-year comparison (too-young regime). Comparison baseline is the September 25 scan.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟢 25 of 28 closed green; six names below their 200-day (from nine on September 25); one name with negative trailing-year alpha (Aeluma, from two)
Leaders Lumentum (RSI 66.7, at its high), MACOM (67.7), Onto Innovation (67.6), Semtech (66.1), plus three overbought: FormFactor (72.8), Viavi (72.6), MaxLinear (71.5)
Laggards POET Technologies (RSI 49.8, below its 200-day), Aeluma (47.2, below its 200-day, negative alpha), Jabil (47.4, the only name sitting below its 20-day)
The horizon check 22 of 28 names are above their 200-day; Ciena sits exactly on the line (0%) with a 156.35% trailing year. Below the line: Lightwave Logic, Fabrinet, Photronics (PLAB), LightPath, POET, Aeluma
Caveat MaxLinear (+14.99%), Syntec Optics (+12.7%), Applied Optoelectronics (+7.71%) are cause unknown on the day, and the whole-book rally has only a carried candidate. News was re-pulled 2026-10-03 for MaxLinear, Syntec, Applied Optoelectronics, Lumentum, Coherent, Sandisk and four others, and none carries an item on an October 2 move. For the week, X accounts on October 1 relayed a Morgan Stanley note saying Washington is discussing restrictions on Chinese 3.2T transceivers, potentially as soon as October (attributed to Morgan Stanley via X, not checked against the note). The stock-event files were checked (only Nike's October 1 earnings and Corteva's October 1 spin-off are filed), and the desk's October 1-2 article and X captures were searched by company name. Moves below with no stated cause are therefore cause unknown, not cause absent.

What's Going On

The rally is the story. Twenty-five names closed green, the three decliners were Sandisk (-3.79%), Astera Labs (-1.71%) and Tower Semiconductor (-0.18%), and the book's trailing-month gains are large across the board: Semtech +45.6%, test-equipment name Aehr +33.61%, AXT +50.78%, MaxLinear +76.26%. MaxLinear is the extreme: 553.89% on the trailing year and 97.6% above its 200-day. Its news pull (re-pulled 2026-10-03) shows only its investor page (an earnings-date notice and a September 28 product launch), and an October 2 X post calls the day a breakout without naming a cause, so the day and the month are cause unknown (stock-events checked); the stock is extended on every measure the desk checks.

Lumentum is the cleanest leader: 45.6% above its 200-day, -0.57% from its 52-week high, trailing year 539.42% with alpha 524.42. The desk's thesis rating on it is intact. Its only dated item is a late-September officer share listing, which says nothing about Friday's 3.79% gain. A name at its high after a five-fold year is a hold, not a fresh entry.

The repair underneath is the better news. Syntec Optics rose 12.7% and now sits 18.4% above its 200-day, reversing last week's re-cross below the line; Applied Optoelectronics is 6.2% above after a 7.71% day; Fabrinet's trailing-year alpha is now positive at 10.47 though it is still 12.8% below its 200-day. What is left under the line is mostly the small, development-stage group (Lightwave Logic, POET, Aeluma) and LightPath, where the business-quality veto applies regardless of chart.

Sandisk is the one large name that gave ground (-3.79% on the day, -3.25% on the week) but it is still 50.1% above its 200-day with a 1285.52% year, a pullback inside an intact trend. News pulled 2026-10-03 carries only a MarketBeat page attributing the slide to sector sentiment, profit-taking and valuation, with no dated event; stock-events checked; cause unknown.

What Changed Since Prior Scan

  • Names below their 200-day: six today (LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, POET, ALMU) versus nine in the September 25 scan. Ciena, Applied Optoelectronics and Syntec Optics are out of that group.
  • Negative trailing-year alpha: one name (Aeluma, alpha -37.14) versus two on September 25; Fabrinet crossed to positive.
  • Breadth: 25 of 28 green today after a 24-of-28 green session on September 25, so the book has now rallied in back-to-back scans.
  • Overbought count: three names at RSI 70 or higher (FORM, VIAV, MXL); no name is below RSI 40 (lowest is Aeluma at 47.2).
  • MaxLinear remains the largest single-day mover in the book for a second scan running (14.99% today).

How To Read The Board

Two layers. The short layer (RSI, vs SMA20) says the book is extended: every name except Jabil is above its 20-day, and eight are more than 15% above it. The long layer (trailing year, 200-day, alpha) says the book is in a durable uptrend with a small unrepaired tail. Do not read the short layer as a sell signal in names with a triple-digit trailing year; read it as a reason not to chase.

Names under their 200-day with positive trailing-year alpha (Lightwave Logic, Fabrinet, LightPath, POET, Photronics) are trends under test, not breakdowns. Aeluma is the one that fails every long window and is rated no-view.

Source limits: this board is price and RSI against the 20-, 50- and 200-day lines. It carries no insider dollars, no estimates and no filings. A low or high RSI here is screen evidence, not a setup, and the desk's thesis rating is unrated for most names; only Lumentum, Ciena and POET carry one.

Price Table

Rows are ordered by RSI, highest first. Tape cells are live values for the October 2 close; the Signal column is the desk's label.

Stock As of Price ($) RSI SMA20 ($) vs SMA20 (%) 7D (%) 30D (%) 1Y (%) vs SMA200 (%) Signal
FORM 2026-10-02 149.15 72.8 122.19 22.1 15.01 54.43 278.36 37.4 🔴 overbought; above 200-day
VIAV 2026-10-02 47.1 72.6 38.23 23.2 15.78 36.52 268.83 28 🔴 overbought; above 200-day
MXL 2026-10-02 105.93 71.5 80.51 31.6 12.88 76.26 553.89 97.6 🔴 extended: +76.26% on the month
MTSI 2026-10-02 321.6 67.7 276.18 16.4 12.62 24.86 151.07 17.7 pullback; above 200-day
ONTO 2026-10-02 327.77 67.6 279.12 17.4 13.95 28.76 134.41 29.2 pullback; above 200-day
LITE 2026-10-02 1085.42 66.7 941.73 15.3 15.27 24.68 539.42 45.6 🟠 at its high; intact thesis; extended
SMTC 2026-10-02 194.88 66.1 171.1 13.9 6.9 45.6 167.22 66.7 uptrend; above 200-day
CLS 2026-10-02 387.32 65.5 345.66 12.1 5.99 39.44 54.37 17.1 pullback; above 200-day
OPTX 2026-10-02 9.14 63.6 7.39 23.7 23.51 21.38 482.17 18.4 pullback; above 200-day
AXTI 2026-10-02 85.87 62.7 71.45 20.2 8.78 50.78 1727.02 42.3 pullback; above 200-day
FN 2026-10-02 463.69 61.7 408.78 13.4 11.09 17.29 25.47 -12.8 🟡 below 200-day; alpha now positive
LAZR 2026-10-02 48.28 61.7 44.09 9.5 7.55 15.97 n/a n/a too young: no 200-day
HIMX 2026-10-02 15.24 61.2 14.09 8.2 5.54 12.89 75.78 23.4 pullback; above 200-day
PLAB 2026-10-02 31.49 60.9 29.49 6.8 3.59 12.99 28.11 -12.3 downtrend; below 200-day
COHR 2026-10-02 337.04 60.7 298.22 13 13.93 25.46 198.82 16.6 pullback; above 200-day
AEHR 2026-10-02 107.21 59.5 94.94 12.9 2.7 33.61 232.43 54 pullback; above 200-day
CIEN 2026-10-02 391.34 59 349.95 11.8 9.65 10.5 156.35 0 🟢 on the 200-day line; intact-but-priced
ALAB 2026-10-02 350.33 58.4 320.64 9.3 -3.92 27.8 67.14 45.3 pullback; above 200-day
AAOI 2026-10-02 115.59 57.5 103.18 12 13.99 12.08 313.12 6.2 pullback; above 200-day
TSEM 2026-10-02 240.86 57.4 221.42 8.8 4.51 16.46 216.13 22.5 pullback; above 200-day
KOPN 2026-10-02 4.91 57 4.63 5.9 -1.6 14.45 85.98 34.3 pullback; above 200-day
GLW 2026-10-02 164.19 56.6 156.01 5.2 4.75 13.92 98.97 9.1 pullback; above 200-day
LPTH 2026-10-02 11.04 54.7 9.97 10.7 10.62 15.72 35.13 -8.8 collapse; below 200-day
LWLG 2026-10-02 5.7 53.8 5.21 9.4 7.34 12.87 31.64 -21.8 🟡 below 200-day; development-stage (quality veto)
SNDK 2026-10-02 1719.99 52.7 1713.45 0.4 -3.25 10.72 1285.52 50.1 🟡 pullback in intact trend
POET 2026-10-02 7.79 49.8 7.75 0.5 0.26 6.86 19.85 -6.7 🟡 below 200-day; thesis intact; development-stage (quality veto)
JBL 2026-10-02 304.41 47.4 306.02 -0.5 -3.89 1.68 41.13 0.9 pullback; above 200-day
ALMU 2026-10-02 13.12 47.2 13.02 0.7 -1.28 2.1 -22.14 -25.2 🔴 fails every long window; no-view

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI below 25): none.

Oversold (RSI 25-40): none. The lowest RSI in the book is Aeluma at 47.2.

Neutral to strong (RSI 40+): all 28 names. Overbought (70+): Viavi (72.6), FormFactor (72.8), MaxLinear (71.5). Near overbought (65-70): MACOM (67.7), Onto Innovation (67.6), Lumentum (66.7), Semtech (66.1), Celestica (65.5).

Entry Zones

Stock Entry zone Thesis
LITE Pullback toward its 20-day average (941.73) rather than the current price Intact thesis, at its 52-week high; the trend is not in doubt, the entry price is
CIEN Its 200-day line, where it sits now (vs 200-day 0%) Trailing year 156.35%, -38.61% from its high: a deep pullback in an intact trend, rated intact-but-priced
GLW Near its 20-day (156.01) Above its 200-day by 9.1% with a 98.97% year; the least extended large name (RSI 56.6)
JBL Its 20-day (306.02) is the line to hold The one name below its 20-day, essentially on its 200-day (0.9%)
SNDK Its 20-day (1713.45) is the reference Pullback in an intact trend; no zone until it stops falling
MXL, VIAV, FORM, AXTI, MTSI None: extended RSI 62-73 and 16-32% above the 20-day after month-long runs; wait for a flag
LWLG, POET, ALMU, LPTH No zone Small, development-stage names; business-quality veto, and four of the six sub-200-day names

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
LITE, GLW, CIEN 🟢 Intact trend 🔒 Hold Hold winners; add only on pullbacks to the 20-day
MXL, VIAV, FORM 🔴 Overbought ⚠️ Avoid chasing RSI 70+ after large month-long runs; no dated cause for MaxLinear or Viavi
JBL, SNDK, ALAB 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch Soft day or week inside intact trends
FN, PLAB, LPTH 🟡 Below 200-day, positive alpha 🔍 Watch Trend under test; the 200-day is the line
LWLG, POET, ALMU 🔴 Quality veto ❌ Don't buy Development-stage; Aeluma fails every long window
OPTX, AAOI, KOPN 🟡 Sharp rebound 🔍 Watch Large single-day gains, cause unknown; OPTX reclaimed its 200-day
LAZR 🟡 Too young 🔍 Watch No 200-day or trailing-year comparison yet

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Whether the 25-of-28 green breadth survives a pullback Back-to-back rally scans with 3 names at RSI 70+ is when this book usually gives some back
MaxLinear's 97.6% gap above its 200-day The most extended name; a flag, not a chase
Lumentum holding its high -0.57% from the 52-week high; the book's thesis-intact leader
Whether the six sub-200-day names reclaim Fabrinet (-12.8%) and Photronics (-12.3%) are the closest
Aeluma's alpha (-37.14) The only name failing every long window

Sources

  • Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-10-02 close — optical-supply-chain.
  • Cause checks: news receipts under stocks<SYM>/news/latest.json(all fetched on or before 2026-10-01), stock-event files inresearch/stock-events/` (2026-10-01-nke-earnings, 2026-10-01-vylr-spinoff), capture articles in articles.
  • Tradability: _securities.
  • Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-25-optical-supply-chain.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.