Optical Supply Chain Scan
Optical Supply Chain Scan
Twenty-seven of the 28 names in this book closed green on Friday while the S&P 500 proxy closed down 0.12% — the single most lopsided day this book has produced in a month, and it landed on the week's last session rather than the week as a whole. Sandisk (+10.99%), MaxLinear (+8.17%), Applied Optoelectronics (+7.25%) and Coherent (+7.22%) led it. The week underneath is far more mixed: 21 of 28 names gained RSI ground but seven fell hard, with Corning (-9.78%), Viavi (-8.75%) and Onto Innovation (-6.34%) giving back more than Friday returned. Nine names sit below their 200-day average, and only two of those nine — Fabrinet and Aeluma — fail the trailing-year check as well. The rest of that group is a deep pullback inside an intact multi-year trend, not a breakdown.
Numbers are the settled September 18 close for all 28 names. The book is eight names smaller than the September 11 edition: the research-only foreign and over-the-counter listings that used to sit in it came out of the nightly settled price run on September 11 and 12 as untradeable or thin proxies — a coverage decision, not a trading signal. Friday was quarterly options expiry, so Friday's relative-volume readings across the whole book are inflated by expiry flow and are not a clean participation signal. Comparison baseline is the September 11 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 27 of 28 names green Friday against a flat index; 21 of 28 gained RSI on the week |
| Leaders | SMTC (RSI 67.2, +10.62% on the week), SNDK (61.4, +9.7%), MXL (60.8, +8.78%), AXTI (54.3, +8.12%) |
| Laggards | FN (RSI 39.8, -6.28% week), OPTX (41.0), LWLG (41.1), ALMU (42.4), JBL (42.9, -5.82% week) |
| The real split | Nine names sit below their 200-day; seven of those nine still carry strongly positive trailing-year returns and alpha. Only FN and ALMU fail on every window |
| Caveat | The book shrank from 36 names to 28 on a coverage change, not on price. Friday volume is expiry-inflated |
What's Going On
The week's shape is a round trip. Global AI-linked stocks sold off Monday after prominent AI leaders publicly endorsed slowing frontier-model development, as Semafor reported September 14. The Federal Reserve then raised its main interest rate by a quarter point on Wednesday — its first hike in three years, citing stubborn inflation, per CNBC and Yahoo Finance on September 16. By Thursday MarketWatch was reporting that chip stocks were "furthering their strong comebacks" as fears of an AI spending slowdown and of the rate hike's impact subsided. Friday extended that recovery into this book with unusual breadth: 27 of 28 names green, only LPTH (-2.08%) red, and nine names up more than 4% on the day.
The weekly numbers are the sober version. Semtech leads the book on both RSI (67.2) and the week (+10.62%), now 25.4% above its 20-day average and 65.5% above its 200-day — the most extended name here. Two dated secondary write-ups on file, from StocksToTrade and Timothy Sykes both dated September 16, attribute the run to accelerating AI data-center demand and a September guidance raise; neither is a company filing, so treat the driver as reported rather than confirmed. Sandisk's +9.7% week and +10.99% Friday come with a completed news pull dated September 17 that returns only stock-overview pages — no dated driver for this specific move is on file, and no September event exists for the name in the desk's event record.
The decliners are the part that did not participate. Corning fell 9.78% on the week and Viavi 8.75%, both while gaining on Friday itself — the damage happened earlier in the week. Corning's news pull completed September 17 with nothing newer than September 8 and no event on the desk's calendar before its October 27 print, so the move has no confirmed cause. Viavi's pull completed September 17 and lists a $500 million public stock offering among its items, but the receipt carries no date for it, so the week's decline stays unattributed rather than pinned on a dilution event the desk cannot date. Jabil fell 5.82% on the week with its fiscal print scheduled for September 30 on a provider-estimated date; nothing on file explains the drop.
Aeluma is the one name in this book with a dated, confirmed event this week. It reported after the close on September 16: earnings per share of -$0.15 against an analyst consensus of -$0.07, a miss. The stock still closed the week down 5.07% — but printed +10.22% on Friday alone, two sessions after the miss, on 2.8 times average volume. The earnings result is on the record; the Friday reversal is not explained by it, and nothing else on file explains it either.
What Changed Since September 11
- The book is eight names smaller. SOI.PA, IBIDF, FLTCF, 6779.T, SIVEF, IQEPF, ALRIB.PA and LPK.DE all left the nightly settled price run on September 11 and 12 — thin over-the-counter proxies and foreign listings the desk cannot trade. They remain available for research. IBIDF's frozen-bar problem, flagged in the last two scans, is resolved by removal rather than by a fresh print.
- SNDK: RSI 53.6 → 61.4 (+7.8), the joint-largest gain, and a +9.7% week that reverses last scan's -6.13%.
- TSEM: RSI 45.1 → 52.9 (+7.8), the other joint-largest gain.
- LPTH: RSI 37.8 → 43.5 (+5.7), off the bottom of the book; AXTI 48.9 → 54.3 (+5.4); ALAB 47.4 → 52.8 (+5.4); MXL 56.4 → 60.8 (+4.4).
- GLW: RSI 56.9 → 47.3 (-9.6), the largest decline in the book, on a -9.78% week with no confirmed cause.
- JBL: RSI 50.2 → 42.9 (-7.3); HIMX 58.0 → 51.7 (-6.3); VIAV 51.2 → 45.3 (-5.9); CLS 58.4 → 53.9 (-4.5).
- Below-200-day group widened from eight names to nine: VIAV joined (now -0.9%) while the previously flagged POET, PLAB, CIEN, OPTX, LWLG, LPTH, FN and ALMU all stayed.
- The negative-alpha group is unchanged at two names — FN (-12.23) and ALMU (-34.80) — the same pair flagged last scan. No new name failed the trailing-year check this week.
- CIEN's RSI recovery continued (43.3 → 45.8) but it is still 9.1% below its 200-day, so last scan's open question on whether the fiscal Q3 beat closes that gap remains open.
How To Read The Board
Friday and the week say different things, and Friday is the weaker evidence. A 27-of-28 green day on quarterly expiry is a flow event as much as a demand event, and the elevated relative-volume readings across this book — Tower Semiconductor at 6.9 times average on a 1.99% day is the clearest example — are inflated by that expiry rather than by conviction in any single name.
The durable read sits in the horizon columns. Nine names are below their 200-day average, but seven of them (LPTH, PLAB, CIEN, POET, LWLG, OPTX, VIAV) carry strongly positive trailing-year returns and positive alpha — VIAV is up 186.55% over the year with alpha of +171.53 while sitting 0.9% under its 200-day. That is a trend under test, and the label for it is deep pullback, not breakdown. Only Fabrinet (alpha -12.23, up 2.79% on the year) and Aeluma (alpha -34.80, down 19.79% on the year) show weakness on every window at once.
Semtech is the opposite risk: RSI 67.2 and 65.5% above its 200-day is an extended name, not an entry, and the evidence behind its run is secondary commentary rather than a filing.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMTC | $185.00 | 67.2 | $147.55 | +25.4% | +10.62% | +47.57% | uptrend (most extended in book, +65.5% vs 200-day) |
| SNDK | $1,791.82 | 61.4 | $1,591.42 | +12.6% | +9.7% | +14.21% | pullback (+10.99% Friday, no dated driver on file) |
| MXL | $81.12 | 60.8 | $66.16 | +22.6% | +8.78% | +22.11% | pullback |
| COHR | $317.36 | 56.1 | $286.59 | +10.7% | +3.93% | +10.4% | pullback |
| FORM | $118.38 | 56.7 | $106.68 | +11.0% | +2.98% | +2.98% | pullback |
| KOPN | $4.74 | 55.7 | $4.52 | +4.9% | +3.95% | -3.85% | pullback |
| AXTI | $70.03 | 54.3 | $63.53 | +10.2% | +8.12% | -4.63% | pullback |
| LITE | $930.91 | 54.0 | $900.19 | +3.4% | +0.42% | +12.48% | pullback (thesis: intact) |
| CLS | $332.63 | 53.9 | $313.40 | +6.1% | -4.02% | +10.38% | pullback |
| LAZR | $44.41 | 53.0 | $42.89 | +3.5% | +1.3% | +2.73% | too-young (no 200-day or trailing-year comparison) |
| TSEM | $223.60 | 52.9 | $211.11 | +5.9% | +5.71% | -1.26% | pullback (6.9x volume Friday, expiry-inflated) |
| ALAB | $303.25 | 52.8 | $285.70 | +6.1% | +4.13% | +4.92% | pullback |
| MTSI | $275.86 | 52.0 | $264.82 | +4.2% | +0.35% | +2.18% | pullback |
| HIMX | $14.02 | 51.7 | $13.72 | +2.2% | -4.82% | +0.86% | pullback |
| AEHR | $93.49 | 51.3 | $88.14 | +6.1% | -1.27% | -13.4% | pullback |
| PLAB | $29.11 | 49.3 | $28.70 | +1.4% | +0.41% | -5.18% | downtrend (below 200-day, alpha +1.47) |
| POET | $7.80 | 49.2 | $7.71 | +1.2% | -1.89% | -7.58% | collapse (below 200-day, alpha +33.84; thesis: intact) |
| GLW | $150.13 | 47.3 | $151.45 | -0.9% | -9.78% | -1.53% | pullback (largest RSI decline; no confirmed cause) |
| AAOI | $105.17 | 47.1 | $105.91 | -0.7% | -0.18% | -13.93% | pullback |
| ONTO | $263.43 | 46.7 | $269.14 | -2.1% | -6.34% | -12.04% | pullback |
| CIEN | $348.80 | 45.8 | $356.22 | -2.1% | -0.21% | -12.68% | collapse (below 200-day; thesis: intact-but-priced) |
| VIAV | $35.36 | 45.3 | $36.38 | -2.8% | -8.75% | -8.72% | collapse (newly below 200-day, alpha +171.53) |
| LPTH | $9.90 | 43.5 | $10.78 | -8.2% | +7.61% | -25.23% | collapse (below 200-day, alpha +41.38; only name red Friday) |
| JBL | $299.57 | 42.9 | $305.19 | -1.8% | -5.82% | -7.19% | pullback (fiscal print scheduled Sept 30, provider-estimated) |
| ALMU | $12.73 | 42.4 | $13.22 | -3.7% | -5.07% | -17.55% | collapse (Sept 16 earnings miss; negative 1-year and alpha; thesis: no-view) |
| LWLG | $5.10 | 41.1 | $5.34 | -4.6% | -2.49% | -18.27% | collapse (below 200-day, alpha +23.20) |
| OPTX | $6.79 | 41.0 | $7.57 | -10.3% | -4.37% | -19.45% | collapse (below 200-day, alpha +317.47) |
| FN | $388.55 | 39.8 | $407.98 | -4.8% | -6.28% | -14.52% | collapse (below 200-day, alpha -12.23 — the durable weak name) |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): none. The book's lowest reading is FN at 39.8.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): none.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — all 28 names. Within that band the split matters more than the tier: SMTC (67.2), SNDK (61.4) and MXL (60.8) are the extended end; FN (39.8), OPTX (41.0), LWLG (41.1) and ALMU (42.4) are the soft end, and of those four only FN and ALMU carry negative alpha.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry zone | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| CIEN | $348-356 (at or under the $356.22 20-day) | Sitting 9.1% below its 200-day with the fiscal Q3 beat already confirmed last scan; the unresolved condition is whether RSI keeps recovering toward that 200-day rather than stalling under the 20-day |
| VIAV, LPTH, POET, LWLG, OPTX | current levels | All five sit below their 200-day with strongly positive trailing-year returns and alpha — the horizon math reads pullback. None has posted a volume-confirmed reversal on non-expiry volume |
| GLW | $150 area (0.9% under its $151.45 20-day) | Down 9.78% on the week with no confirmed cause and nothing on the calendar before the October 27 print — an unexplained drawdown in a name still 88.56% higher over the year and above its 200-day |
| SMTC | not a zone | RSI 67.2 and 65.5% above its 200-day; extended, and its driver is secondary commentary rather than a filing |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMTC | 🟠 Extended | ⚠️ Avoid chasing | RSI 67.2, 25.4% over its 20-day; run attributed by secondary write-ups only |
| SNDK, MXL, COHR, FORM | 🟢 Working | 🔒 Hold | RSI 56-61 with positive trailing-year and alpha; Friday's move needs a non-expiry session to confirm |
| LITE, POET | 🟢 Rated intact | 🔒 Hold | Desk thesis intact; POET below its 200-day but alpha +33.84 |
| CIEN | 🟡 Recovering | 🔍 Research | Beat already confirmed; 9.1% below its 200-day and RSI recovery still incomplete |
| GLW, VIAV, JBL | 🟡 Unexplained | 🔍 Research | The week's three sharpest decliners, none with a dated cause on file |
| FN, ALMU | 🔴 Multi-window damage | ⚠️ Avoid | The only two names negative on trailing year and alpha; ALMU also missed on September 16 |
| LPTH, LWLG, OPTX, PLAB | 🟡 Trend under test | 🔍 Watch | Below their 200-day but positive on trailing year and alpha |
| LAZR | 🟡 Insufficient history | 🔍 Watch | Too-young regime; no 200-day or trailing-year check available |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether Friday's breadth survives a non-expiry session | 27 of 28 green on quarterly expiry is a flow event until a normal-volume day repeats it |
| Corning's next news pull | The largest RSI decline in the book on a -9.78% week, with nothing dated on file and no print until October 27 |
| Viavi's $500 million offering date | Its pull names the offering but carries no date; that date decides whether the -8.75% week is explained or unexplained |
| Jabil's fiscal print, scheduled September 30 | A provider-estimated date; the first dated catalyst in this book, after a -5.82% week with no cause on file |
| Whether Aeluma's Friday +10.22% holds | Two sessions after a confirmed earnings miss, with no driver on file for the reversal |
| CIEN closing the gap to its 200-day | Still 9.1% below it with the earnings beat already in hand — the same open question as last scan |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| 27 of 28 names green Friday against a -0.12% index | Rotation into optics and photonics was real on the day, but it landed on expiry — the confirmation is the next ordinary session |
| Seven of the nine below-200-day names carry positive alpha | The group that looks technically broken is mostly a deep pullback; only FN and ALMU are broken on every window |
| The negative-alpha group did not widen this week | FN and ALMU were the pair last scan and remain the pair — the horizon check stabilized rather than deteriorated |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Reading a quarterly-expiry volume spike as participation | Tower Semiconductor's 6.9x day came with a 1.99% move — the volume was the calendar, not the buyers |
| Attributing a move to an undated item in a news pull | Viavi's $500 million offering is on the receipt with no date; pinning the week on it would be a guess |
Open Questions
- What drove Corning's 9.78% weekly decline, with no event on file and no print until late October?
- Does Sandisk's 10.99% Friday hold without a dated driver behind it?
- Does the eight-name coverage reduction leave a real gap in the modulator and substrate layers, or were those names never actionable?
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position, relative volume): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-18 close — optical-supply-chain.
- Aeluma fiscal results, September 16 (EPS -$0.15 vs -$0.07 consensus, miss): 2026-09-16-almu-earnings.
- Monday AI-linked selloff: Semafor, "AI slowdown calls prompt chip selloff", September 14 — 2026-09-14-semafor-ai-slowdown-calls-prompt-chip-selloff-mpt-chip-selloff.
- Federal Reserve quarter-point hike, September 16: CNBC, "Fed delivers its first hike in 3 years" — 2026-09-16-cnbc-fed-delivers-its-first-hike-in-3-years-plus-what-s-moving-st-108363844.
- Chip-stock recovery framing, September 17: MarketWatch, "Micron, Intel and other chip stocks are furthering their strong comebacks" — 2026-09-17-marketwatch-micron-intel-and-other-chip-stocks-are-furthering-their-stro--mktw-0005238654.
- Semtech run attribution (secondary commentary, September 16): latest.
- Corning, Viavi, Jabil, Sandisk news receipts (pulls completed September 17; no dated driver for this week's moves): latest,
.../VIAV/news/latest.json,.../JBL/news/latest.json,.../SNDK/news/latest.json. - Coverage reduction of eight research-only listings, September 11-12: CHANGELOG.
- Quarterly options expiry on September 18: 2026-09-17-market-brief.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.