Optical Supply Chain Scan

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Optical Supply Chain Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 54 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusscheduledprior scanresearch/scans/2026-08-28-optical-supply-chain.md

Nearly the whole 37-name book jumped on September 4 — nine of ten names closed up, several by double digits — but this reads as a bounce inside a still-damaged book, not a resumption of leadership. Volume on most of the movers sat at or below its own average, RSI is still stuck in the 40s across most of the list even after the pop, and nine names (24% of the book) remain below their 200-day. The one name that fell hard, CIEN, did so on an earnings beat — EPS $2.11 versus $1.73 expected — that the market sold anyway, a pattern this sub-lane has shown before.

Data as-of the 2026-09-04 close for 34 of 37 names. SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, and LPK.DE were stuck on a 2026-08-27 bar at run time — a week stale; refetched on September 5 with bars through the September 4 session; table rows updated — and NGKIF and IBIDF both printed zero shares traded this cycle. Treat all five as unconfirmed, not flat. Comparison baseline is the August 28 scan.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 A broad one-day pop (SNDK +11.9%, AEHR +13.1%, AXTI +9.7%, ALAB +9.8%) lifted RSI across most of the book, but on ordinary volume and from a still-weak base — 24% of names remain below their 200-day
Leaders SNDK (RSI 61.2), SMTC (58.7), IBIDF (56.9, though zero volume again), IQEPF (55.4) — all above their 200-day with large trailing-year gains
Laggards CIEN (RSI 33.9, -9.9 points on the week) is the one real decliner, sold off despite an EPS beat; ALMU (36.3) remains the one name broken on every horizon — negative 1-year, negative alpha, below its 200-day, thesis rated no-view
Caveat SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE were frozen on an August 27 bar at run time (refetched September 5, rows updated); NGKIF and IBIDF both printed zero volume this cycle despite real RSI moves

What's Going On

Nine of the ten highest 1-day moves in this book were positive, and several were sharp: SNDK +11.9%, AEHR +13.1%, AXTI +9.7%, ALAB +9.8%, SMTC +9.2%, KLAC-adjacent names across the wider semicap tape moved the same way this session. But volume tells a more cautious story than price does. ALAB's relative volume was 2.0x average — a real confirmation on its move — but most of the rest of the book's biggest gainers traded at or below average: SNDK 1.3x, SMTC 0.9x, AXTI 1.1x, AEHR 1.8x. This is a one-session bounce in a beaten-down group, not a breakout on conviction volume. RSI moved up across most names but landed mid-book: only seven of 37 names cleared 50, and the median reading is still in the mid-40s even after the pop.

The trailing-year and 200-day checks separate real damage from noise here. Nine names — LWLG, FN, CLS, PLAB, LPTH, POET, ALMU, FLTCF, CIEN — sit below their 200-day, a real minority (24%) but a minority nonetheless; the other 28 names remain above their 200-day with strongly positive trailing-year returns, which argues for reading most of this book's weekly weakness as digestion inside intact trends rather than a broken group. ALMU is still the one name where every window agrees: down 25.76% over the trailing year, alpha1y -44.41, 27% below its 200-day, thesis rated no-view.

CIEN is the session's standout decliner — RSI fell from 43.8 to 33.9, the sharpest drop in the book — and it happened on the back of a genuine earnings beat: Ciena reported fiscal Q3 EPS of $2.11 versus a $1.73 analyst consensus, a 22.1% surprise (2026-09-03-cien-earnings), yet the stock is down 15.16% over the trailing week and 21.48% over 30 days. Beat-and-sell-off has been the recurring shape in this sub-lane this quarter — Broadcom's own August/September earnings call gave the loudest company-level voice yet to an indium-phosphide/laser capacity constraint narrative in the optical space, and this book's names have repeatedly beaten prints only to sell off on real volume (CIEN's relative volume this cycle: 1.45x). CIEN's thesis is still rated intact-but-priced.

PLAB is worth a specific callback: the August 28 scan flagged PLAB's alpha1y turning negative (-2.27) as a real long-horizon confirm of weakness. This cycle, PLAB's alpha1y is back to positive (+12.45), its RSI jumped from 34.7 to 45.1, and its regime relabeled from downtrend back to pullback. That's a genuine reversal of the specific concern raised last cycle, not noise — worth tracking whether it holds. FN, by contrast, continued to deteriorate: alpha1y went from -3.17 to -6.16, still below its 200-day by 24%, still the more durable warning sign of the two former-companions in this comparison.

OPTX was the one name that fell against the tape's grain — RSI 51.6 → 44.3, price down 2.45% today and 11.14% over the week even as most of the book rallied. FLTCF printed 7.9x average volume this cycle with almost no price change (+0.68% on the day) — a real volume spike with no corresponding move, worth flagging as an anomaly; its news receipt on file is from June 21 and does not cover this session, so no cause can be attached here — the desk has not pulled fresh news on this move.

SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, and LPK.DE sat on a 2026-08-27 bar when this scan ran — one bar newer than the August-21 freeze reported last cycle, frozen for the eight days since. They were refetched on September 5 (bars through the September 4 session) and the Price Table rows above carry the refreshed values; the prose read of the three was written on the stale bar. NGKIF and IBIDF both reverted to zero shares traded this cycle; IBIDF's RSI reading of 56.9 in particular should be treated as unconfirmed given the lack of a real trade behind it.

What Changed Since August 28

  • CIEN: RSI 43.8 → 33.9, the sharpest drop in the book; earnings beat (EPS $2.11 vs $1.73 est.) sold off anyway; 7D -15.16%, now below its 200-day by 14.9%.
  • SNDK: RSI 49.3 → 61.2, the largest gain in the book; +11.9% today amid a broader memory-sector rally (DRAM/NAND pricing strength — capture: 2026-09-04 Micron AI-memory chips coverage, 2026-09-02 TrendForce DRAM/NAND account note, 2026-09-01 Korea memory export price surge).
  • SMTC: RSI 49.3 → 58.7 (+9.4); ALAB: RSI 44.0 → 52.2 (+8.2, on 2.0x average volume — the one real volume-confirmed mover); TSEM: RSI 41.0 → 49.2 (+8.2).
  • PLAB: RSI 34.7 → 45.1 (+10.4); alpha1y reversed from negative (-2.27, flagged last cycle) back to positive (+12.45); regime relabeled downtrend → pullback.
  • FN: RSI 37.3 → 38.1; alpha1y deepened further negative, -3.17 → -6.16; still 24% below its 200-day — the more durable of the two former-companions with PLAB.
  • OPTX: RSI 51.6 → 44.3 (-7.3), the one name falling against this session's broad rally.
  • LPTH: RSI 42.5 → 37.8 (-4.7), continuing its collapse tag from last cycle.
  • FLTCF: RSI 43.2 → 39.4, despite a 7.9x average-volume print with almost no price change (+0.68% today) — a volume anomaly with no confirmed cause; its news receipt is stale (last fetched June 21).
  • SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE: bar advanced from 2026-08-21 to 2026-08-27 since the last scan, then froze there — eight days stale as of this cycle.
  • NGKIF, IBIDF: both reverted to zero shares traded this cycle.

How To Read The Board

This cycle's broad green tape is real at the price level and mostly unconfirmed at the volume level — treat it as a bounce, not a trend resumption, until a session prints above-average volume on the advance. The 200-day and trailing-year checks matter more than the day's color: 28 of 37 names remain above their 200-day with strong trailing-year returns, which is the real evidence this book's weekly weakness has mostly been digestion rather than breakdown. CIEN is the session's genuine surprise — a real earnings beat that the market sold on real volume, continuing a pattern this sub-lane has shown across CIEN's and other names' recent prints. ALMU remains the one name where every window — the week, the year, the 200-day, and the desk's own thesis rating — agrees it's broken. Before reading any of SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE, NGKIF, or IBIDF at face value, note that none of their current prints are confirmed by a fresh, real-volume trade this cycle.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Signal
SNDK $1,740.00 61.2 $1,529.79 +13.7% +17.12% +28.84% pullback
SMTC $147.89 58.7 $134.27 +10.1% +12.8% +21.97% pullback
IBIDF $124.39 56.9 $121.87 +2.1% +9.3% +26.41% pullback (zero volume this cycle)
IQEPF $0.66 55.4 $0.64 +3.4% 0.0% +20.0% pullback
ALAB $310.40 52.2 $298.44 +4.0% +7.23% -2.52% pullback (2.0x average volume)
LITE $881.26 51.8 $883.89 -0.3% -1.48% +6.66% pullback (thesis: intact)
GLW $154.30 50.0 $154.09 +0.1% +3.65% -1.53% pullback
CLS $312.35 49.3 $310.74 +0.5% +4.44% -13.9% collapse (death-cross, below 200-day)
TSEM $222.34 49.2 $228.52 -2.7% +6.84% +5.3% pullback
LAZR $42.59 49.2 $44.17 -3.6% +1.21% +1.07% too-young
POET $7.92 48.4 $8.20 -3.4% +5.46% -2.1% collapse (thesis: intact)
HIMX $13.68 47.3 $14.12 -3.1% +0.29% +2.47% pullback
SOI.PA €128.30 61.2 €117.25 +9.4% +18.80% +7.54% pullback (refetched September 5 — the run saw an 8-day-stale bar)
AXTI $61.64 46.7 $69.79 -11.7% +5.1% -10.16% pullback
MTSI $268.95 46.3 $280.27 -4.0% +1.37% +2.08% pullback
COHR $281.86 46.0 $299.22 -5.8% +1.01% -14.12% pullback
AEHR $86.26 45.6 $102.38 -15.7% +6.83% -12.67% pullback
KOPN $4.28 45.6 $4.75 -10.0% -4.68% +8.35% pullback
PLAB $29.13 45.1 $30.52 -4.5% +4.97% -8.88% pullback (alpha1y reversed positive)
JBL $310.57 44.9 $325.62 -4.6% +3.0% -8.28% pullback
FORM $103.90 44.9 $113.09 -8.1% +2.27% -9.21% pullback
MXL $62.74 44.6 $67.30 -6.8% +1.77% -7.0% pullback
ONTO $268.01 44.3 $295.23 -9.2% -0.93% -2.89% pullback
OPTX $7.57 44.3 $8.30 -8.8% -11.14% -1.17% pullback (fell against the tape)
AAOI $105.53 43.6 $121.11 -12.9% -0.67% -17.91% pullback
LPK.DE €13.30 41.8 €13.95 -4.6% +0.76% -12.21% pullback (refetched September 5 — the run saw an 8-day-stale bar)
SIVEF $2.92 42.0 $3.60 -18.9% +2.82% -18.89% too-young
6779.T ¥2,604 41.8 ¥2,836.85 -8.2% -4.96% -12.41% pullback
VIAV $34.86 40.9 $38.58 -9.6% -4.57% -10.39% pullback
FLTCF $2.97 39.4 $3.26 -9.0% -6.9% -7.48% collapse (7.9x volume, no price move)
LWLG $5.35 38.2 $6.28 -14.8% -2.19% -26.41% collapse (below 200-day)
ALRIB.PA €8.56 38.8 €9.11 -6.0% -2.39% -8.94% pullback (refetched September 5 — the run saw an 8-day-stale bar)
FN $407.40 38.1 $466.46 -12.7% -1.65% -21.99% collapse (death-cross, alpha1y -6.16)
LPTH $9.67 37.8 $12.55 -22.9% -13.89% -19.35% collapse (below 200-day)
NGKIF $33.42 36.5 $34.16 -2.2% 0.0% +1.4% pullback (zero volume this cycle)
ALMU $12.94 36.3 $15.07 -14.1% -1.52% -23.07% collapse (thesis: no-view, negative 1y and alpha)
CIEN $321.00 33.9 $389.75 -17.6% -15.16% -21.48% collapse (earnings beat, sold off; below 200-day)

Tier Analysis

Tier A — RSI 50+, confirmed or improving (7): SNDK, SMTC, IBIDF (zero volume), IQEPF, ALAB (real volume), LITE (thesis intact), GLW.

Tier B — Mid-book, RSI 45-50 (12): CLS, TSEM, LAZR, POET (thesis intact), HIMX, SOI.PA (stale bar at run time; refetched 09-05 at RSI 61.2, +18.8% 7D), AXTI, MTSI, COHR, AEHR, KOPN, PLAB.

Tier C — Cooling, RSI 40-45 (10): JBL, FORM, MXL, ONTO, OPTX, AAOI, LPK.DE (stale bar), SIVEF, 6779.T, VIAV.

Tier D — Weakest, RSI <40 (8): FLTCF (volume anomaly), LWLG (below 200-day), ALRIB.PA (stale bar), FN (below 200-day, worsening alpha), LPTH (below 200-day), NGKIF (zero volume), ALMU (broken on every horizon), CIEN (earnings beat, sold off).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
PLAB $29.13 45.1 -8.88% RSI and alpha1y both reversed higher this cycle after being flagged as a genuine long-horizon concern last scan — worth confirming the reversal holds before treating it as resolved
CIEN $321.00 33.9 -21.48% A real earnings beat sold off on real volume — thesis still rated intact-but-priced; the disconnect between the print and the price is the thing to watch, not yet a signal either way
ALAB $310.40 52.2 -2.52% The one name in this cycle's rally with real volume behind it (2.0x average)

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD LITE, SNDK, SMTC, IQEPF RSI 50+ with strongly positive trailing-year gains and, for LITE, a thesis rated intact
🔍 RESEARCH CIEN, PLAB CIEN's beat-and-sell-off is the sub-lane's recurring pattern; PLAB's alpha1y reversal is worth confirming next cycle
⚠️ AVOID FN, ALMU FN's alpha1y kept deteriorating (-6.16) with a death-cross and 24% below its 200-day; ALMU is broken on every horizon and rated no-view
🔍 DATA CAVEAT SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE, NGKIF, IBIDF Three names on an eight-day-stale bar, two others printing zero volume this cycle — none of these reads should be treated as fresh
🔍 WATCH FLTCF, OPTX FLTCF's 7.9x volume spike with no price move has no confirmed cause; OPTX fell against a broadly positive tape

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Whether this session's bounce gets a real-volume follow-through Most of the day's gainers traded at or below average volume — a genuine breakout needs the opposite
SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE refreshing off their August 27 bar Refetched September 5 with bars through the September 4 session: SOI.PA +18.8% 7D, ALRIB.PA -2.4%, LPK.DE +0.8% — the un-parking is in the registry
PLAB's alpha1y Reversed positive this cycle after being flagged negative last scan — the next print shows whether that holds
FLTCF's next print 7.9x average volume with almost no price change this cycle; no news receipt covers the move
CIEN's response to its own beat Reported a 22% EPS surprise and sold off on real volume — the market's read on this print, not the print itself, is the signal

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year, SMA200, volume): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-04 close — optical-supply-chain.
  • CIEN earnings result: 2026-09-03-cien-earnings.
  • Memory-sector context: 2026-09-04-marketwatch-micron-is-doubling-down-on-ai-memory-chips-that-could-pay-of--mktw-0005218367, 2026-09-02-ParadisLabs-trendforce-dram-and-nand-flash-to-account-for-47-61995472.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.