Optical Supply Chain Scan
Optical Supply Chain Scan
This cycle is the repair story the book had been waiting for — five names crossed out of a broken regime, four of them (COHR, AXTI, AAOI, FORM) climbing back out of collapse and GLW lifting out of downtrend into pullback. AXTI is the standout single mover: a +28.74% single-day gain on 3.38x average volume put its RSI at 51.3, the highest reading in the 37-name book. The structurally-damaged bucket shrank from nine names to five, and the three long-frozen European names (SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE) all finally printed fresh bars after sitting on 2026-07-24 data for multiple cycles.
Data as-of the 2026-07-31 close for most of the book. NGKIF and HIMX carry bars dated 2026-07-30 (one session behind). NGKIF remains effectively untradeable on volume (35 shares vs. a 65-share average). IBIDF printed a trade this cycle (100 shares) but still at just 0.08x its average volume — thin, not confirmed. SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, and LPK.DE all received fresh prints this cycle after multiple cycles frozen on 2026-07-24 data. Prior scan: 2026-07-28-optical-supply-chain (data as-of the 2026-07-28 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 A genuine reversal cycle — five names repaired their structural tags and the collapse bucket shrank from nine to five |
| Key insight | AXTI's +28.74% single-day move on 3.38x average volume lifted its RSI to 51.3, the highest reading in the book, while carrying its regime out of collapse into pullback |
What's Going On
After a stretch of broad deterioration, this cycle turned into a repair story across a meaningful slice of the book. COHR, AXTI, AAOI, and FORM all crossed out of collapse into pullback, and GLW lifted separately from downtrend into pullback — five structural upgrades in one cycle, none of them reversed. AXTI is the clearest single event: its price jumped 28.74% in one session on relative volume of 3.38x average, pushing RSI from a prior collapse-tagged reading up to 51.3, now the top of the book. COHR's RSI climbed to 40.5, AAOI's to 40.7, and FORM's to 46.4, all three narrowing their 30-day losses meaningfully in the process (COHR now -28.69%, AAOI -32.14%, FORM -27.82%). GLW's RSI reached 38.3 with its 30-day loss narrowing to -37.34%. The five names still carrying a collapse tag — LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, and ALMU — mostly improved on RSI too (PLAB up to 48.5, ALMU to 45.0, LWLG to 43.4) without the regime itself lifting, so price stabilizing inside a still-broken tag is not the same thing as a repair. POET's regime held at downtrend for a second cycle, thesis still rated intact, with its distance from its 52-week high narrowing slightly to -66.41%. CLS, last cycle's one clean repair, cooled from RSI 52.0 to 47.3 while holding its pullback regime. Separately, three names that had been frozen on 2026-07-24 data for multiple cycles — SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, and LPK.DE — all received fresh prints this cycle, and none of the readings that emerged looked like an improvement: SOI.PA's RSI came in at 48.1 with a fresh 30-day loss of -10.84%, ALRIB.PA at 34.6 with a fresh -21.07%, and LPK.DE at 39.6 with a fresh -33.41%. NGKIF remains the thinnest name in the book on volume and now also carries the lowest RSI, at 21.9.
What Changed Since 2026-07-28
- AXTI: regime upgraded collapse → pullback; RSI climbed to 51.3, the highest in the book, on a +28.74% single-day move (3.38x average volume) and +27.95% for the week; -57.79% from 52-week high (was -70.13%).
- COHR: regime upgraded collapse → pullback; RSI 31.6 → 40.5; 30-day loss narrowed to -28.69% (was -37.8%).
- AAOI: regime upgraded collapse → pullback; RSI 35.0 → 40.7; 30-day loss narrowed to -32.14% (was -41.28%).
- FORM: regime upgraded collapse → pullback; RSI 33.7 → 46.4; 30-day loss narrowed to -27.82% (was -38.8%).
- GLW: regime upgraded downtrend → pullback; RSI 31.0 → 38.3; 30-day loss narrowed to -37.34% (was -50.72%).
- LITE: RSI 37.5 → 45.4, thesis still intact; 30-day loss narrowed to -10.89% (was -23.43%).
- CLS: RSI cooled 52.0 → 47.3, regime held pullback; 30-day flipped from +2.02% to -8.35%.
- POET: RSI 36.8 → 41.0, thesis still intact, regime held downtrend; -66.41% from high (was -67.52%).
- SOI.PA / ALRIB.PA / LPK.DE: all three received their first fresh print in several cycles after being frozen on 2026-07-24 data — none of the fresh readings showed improvement.
- LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, ALMU: all five carried their collapse tag forward for another cycle; ALMU's thesis stays rated no-view.
- IBIDF: still thin — 100 shares traded this cycle vs. a 1,332-share average (0.08x).
- NGKIF: bar now dated 2026-07-30 (was 2026-07-27), still near-zero volume; RSI fell to 21.9, now the lowest in the book.
How To Read The Board
Regime labels describe chart structure, not a buy/sell call. Five upgrades in one cycle — four out of collapse, one out of downtrend — is the most structurally significant move this book has shown recently, and AXTI's volume (3.38x average on the day) is the kind of confirmation a regime change needs. The five names still tagged collapse improved on RSI without the label lifting, which reads as stabilization, not repair, until the tag itself changes. The three newly-fresh European prints (SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE) settle a multi-cycle data gap, but the readings that emerged are ordinary pullback numbers, not a hidden strength story.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs SMA20 | Trend | From 52wkHigh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTI | $60.43 | 51.3 | +27.95% | -7.07% | +15.3% | weak-down | -57.79% (regime: pullback, upgraded from collapse) |
| PLAB | $30.29 | 48.5 | -0.13% | -0.07% | +2.8% | strong-down | -45.91% (regime: collapse) |
| AEHR | $79.98 | 48.5 | +4.8% | -5.27% | +3.0% | weak-down | -36.83% |
| SOI.PA | €104.00 | 48.1 | -9.76% | -10.84% | +3.3% | weak-down | -48.13% (fresh print this cycle) |
| CLS | $331.44 | 47.3 | +8.57% | -8.35% | -1.1% | weak-down | -30.08% |
| FORM | $106.20 | 46.4 | +2.08% | -27.82% | -1.7% | weak-down | -33.74% (regime: pullback, upgraded from collapse) |
| ALAB | $311.23 | 46.3 | +6.74% | -27.77% | -7.4% | weak-down | -37.69% |
| TSEM | $219.67 | 46.0 | -5.87% | -10.51% | -3.9% | weak-down | -31.34% |
| JBL | $315.05 | 45.6 | +0.79% | -16.06% | -0.4% | weak-down | -26.55% |
| LITE | $713.94 | 45.4 | -6.43% | -10.89% | -4.2% | weak-down | -34.24% (thesis: intact) |
| IQEPF | $0.53 | 45.4 | -17.19% | -13.11% | -3.9% | weak-down | -44.39% |
| ALMU | $16.20 | 45.0 | +13.92% | -20.98% | +0.6% | down | -49.04% (regime: collapse; thesis: no-view) |
| KOPN | $3.52 | 43.9 | -1.68% | -16.59% | -6.7% | weak-down | -46.75% |
| ONTO | $258.58 | 43.8 | -5.15% | -26.41% | -8.8% | weak-down | -33.09% |
| LWLG | $6.46 | 43.4 | +6.78% | -20.44% | -0.3% | down | -65.47% (regime: collapse) |
| SMTC | $117.82 | 42.6 | -6.43% | -19.87% | -8.1% | weak-down | -33.57% |
| CIEN | $377.05 | 42.4 | -3.56% | -18.47% | -6.7% | weak-down | -40.86% (thesis: intact-but-priced) |
| MXL | $66.82 | 42.3 | -6.66% | -40.55% | -16.3% | weak-down | -47.92% |
| VIAV | $36.95 | 41.8 | -6.5% | -21.5% | -6.5% | weak-down | -38.85% |
| HIMX | $12.54 | 41.6 | -5.5% | -18.25% | -7.2% | weak-down | -50.02% (data 07-30) |
| LPTH | $10.37 | 41.3 | -4.25% | -34.74% | -9.2% | down | -45.25% (regime: collapse) |
| POET | $6.99 | 41.0 | +1.45% | -27.94% | -10.0% | down | -66.41% (regime: downtrend; thesis: intact) |
| SNDK | $1214.83 | 40.8 | -15.43% | -40.22% | -19.5% | weak-down | -48.4% |
| AAOI | $94.32 | 40.7 | -5.82% | -32.14% | -11.7% | weak-down | -59.64% (regime: pullback, upgraded from collapse) |
| COHR | $262.89 | 40.5 | -6.91% | -28.69% | -10.1% | weak-down | -40.25% (regime: pullback, upgraded from collapse) |
| 6779.T | ¥2590 | 40.3 | -8.06% | -31.12% | -12.8% | weak-down | -48.3% |
| IBIDF | $98.35 | 40.3 | -8.7% | -31.22% | -9.7% | weak-down | -35.92% (thin volume, 0.08x average) |
| LPK.DE | €14.25 | 39.6 | +3.64% | -33.41% | -10.0% | weak-down | -53.73% (fresh print this cycle) |
| SIVEF | $3.28 | 38.8 | +4.79% | -45.7% | -14.0% | neutral | -70.84% (regime: too-young) |
| FLTCF | $3.16 | 38.7 | -9.2% | -15.96% | -8.3% | weak-down | -62.82% |
| GLW | $138.25 | 38.3 | -5.73% | -37.34% | -14.8% | weak-down | -49.13% (regime: pullback, upgraded from downtrend) |
| FN | $435.41 | 37.2 | -8.53% | -20.43% | -8.6% | down | -41.86% (regime: collapse) |
| OPTX | $6.53 | 37.0 | -7.38% | -46.34% | -16.8% | weak-down | -56.23% |
| LAZR | $37.46 | 37.0 | -3.0% | -21.12% | -5.3% | neutral | -26.25% (regime: too-young) |
| MTSI | $251.44 | 36.1 | -5.82% | -28.29% | -10.5% | weak-down | -39.98% |
| ALRIB.PA | €9.03 | 34.6 | -8.88% | -21.07% | -8.3% | weak-down | -51.19% (fresh print this cycle) |
| NGKIF | $32.96 | 21.9 | -13.26% | -29.38% | -19.7% | weak-down | -31.97% (data 07-30, near-zero volume) |
Tier Analysis
Tier A — Steadier pocket, RSI 44+, non-collapse (10): AXTI (freshly repaired), AEHR, SOI.PA (fresh print), CLS, FORM (freshly repaired), ALAB, TSEM, JBL, LITE (thesis intact), IQEPF.
Tier B — Broad digestion, pullback/downtrend, non-collapse (18): KOPN, ONTO, SMTC, CIEN (intact-but-priced), MXL, VIAV, HIMX, POET (downtrend, thesis intact), SNDK, AAOI (freshly repaired), COHR (freshly repaired), 6779.T, LPK.DE (fresh print), FLTCF, GLW (freshly repaired), OPTX, MTSI, ALRIB.PA (fresh print).
Tier C — Structural avoid, regime collapse (5 of 37, down from 9): LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, ALMU (thesis: no-view).
Tier D — Data caveat (4): NGKIF (one-session-stale, near-zero volume), IBIDF (thin print, 0.08x average volume), SIVEF and LAZR (too-young regime, no confirmed structure yet).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTI | $60.43 | 51.3 | -7.07% | Fresh regime upgrade out of collapse on the sharpest single-day volume in the book — needs a second cycle to confirm |
| GLW | $138.25 | 38.3 | -37.34% | Regime upgraded out of downtrend this cycle, though 30-day damage is still deep — worth a fresh look |
| LITE | $713.94 | 45.4 | -10.89% | Thesis intact, 30-day loss narrowed materially this cycle |
| POET | $6.99 | 41.0 | -27.94% | Regime held downtrend for a second cycle, thesis intact, 52-week distance nudged in the right direction |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔍 RESEARCH | AXTI, COHR, AAOI, FORM, GLW | All five freshly repaired out of a broken regime this cycle — worth confirming the upgrade holds |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | LITE, POET | Thesis-rated names, both showing narrowing losses this cycle |
| ⚠️ AVOID | AEHR, SOI.PA, CLS, ALAB, TSEM, JBL, IQEPF, KOPN, ONTO, SMTC, CIEN, MXL, VIAV, HIMX, SNDK, 6779.T, LPK.DE, FLTCF, OPTX, MTSI, ALRIB.PA | Broad digestion, RSI under 49, deep monthly losses |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, ALMU | Collapse regime, carried forward another cycle; ALMU's thesis is rated no-view |
| 🔍 DATA CAVEAT | NGKIF, IBIDF, SIVEF, LAZR | Near-zero/thin volume (NGKIF, IBIDF) or too-young regime (SIVEF, LAZR) |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| The five freshly-repaired names (AXTI, COHR, AAOI, FORM, GLW) | This cycle's headline — needs a second cycle to confirm the upgrades aren't a single-week bounce |
| AXTI's volume-confirmed move | 3.38x average volume on a +28.74% day is the strongest single-name confirmation in the book |
| The remaining collapse pocket (LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, ALMU) | RSI improved across most of these names without the tag lifting — worth checking whether the next print brings a regime change too |
| SOI.PA/ALRIB.PA/LPK.DE's next print | First fresh reading in several cycles just landed and didn't show strength — the next print will show whether this is a floor |
| NGKIF's next liquid print | Still effectively untradeable on volume, now also the lowest RSI in the book |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 close — optical-supply-chain.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.