Optical Supply Chain Scan

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Optical Supply Chain Scan

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This cycle is the repair story the book had been waiting for — five names crossed out of a broken regime, four of them (COHR, AXTI, AAOI, FORM) climbing back out of collapse and GLW lifting out of downtrend into pullback. AXTI is the standout single mover: a +28.74% single-day gain on 3.38x average volume put its RSI at 51.3, the highest reading in the 37-name book. The structurally-damaged bucket shrank from nine names to five, and the three long-frozen European names (SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE) all finally printed fresh bars after sitting on 2026-07-24 data for multiple cycles.

Data as-of the 2026-07-31 close for most of the book. NGKIF and HIMX carry bars dated 2026-07-30 (one session behind). NGKIF remains effectively untradeable on volume (35 shares vs. a 65-share average). IBIDF printed a trade this cycle (100 shares) but still at just 0.08x its average volume — thin, not confirmed. SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, and LPK.DE all received fresh prints this cycle after multiple cycles frozen on 2026-07-24 data. Prior scan: 2026-07-28-optical-supply-chain (data as-of the 2026-07-28 close).

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟢 A genuine reversal cycle — five names repaired their structural tags and the collapse bucket shrank from nine to five
Key insight AXTI's +28.74% single-day move on 3.38x average volume lifted its RSI to 51.3, the highest reading in the book, while carrying its regime out of collapse into pullback

What's Going On

After a stretch of broad deterioration, this cycle turned into a repair story across a meaningful slice of the book. COHR, AXTI, AAOI, and FORM all crossed out of collapse into pullback, and GLW lifted separately from downtrend into pullback — five structural upgrades in one cycle, none of them reversed. AXTI is the clearest single event: its price jumped 28.74% in one session on relative volume of 3.38x average, pushing RSI from a prior collapse-tagged reading up to 51.3, now the top of the book. COHR's RSI climbed to 40.5, AAOI's to 40.7, and FORM's to 46.4, all three narrowing their 30-day losses meaningfully in the process (COHR now -28.69%, AAOI -32.14%, FORM -27.82%). GLW's RSI reached 38.3 with its 30-day loss narrowing to -37.34%. The five names still carrying a collapse tag — LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, and ALMU — mostly improved on RSI too (PLAB up to 48.5, ALMU to 45.0, LWLG to 43.4) without the regime itself lifting, so price stabilizing inside a still-broken tag is not the same thing as a repair. POET's regime held at downtrend for a second cycle, thesis still rated intact, with its distance from its 52-week high narrowing slightly to -66.41%. CLS, last cycle's one clean repair, cooled from RSI 52.0 to 47.3 while holding its pullback regime. Separately, three names that had been frozen on 2026-07-24 data for multiple cycles — SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, and LPK.DE — all received fresh prints this cycle, and none of the readings that emerged looked like an improvement: SOI.PA's RSI came in at 48.1 with a fresh 30-day loss of -10.84%, ALRIB.PA at 34.6 with a fresh -21.07%, and LPK.DE at 39.6 with a fresh -33.41%. NGKIF remains the thinnest name in the book on volume and now also carries the lowest RSI, at 21.9.

What Changed Since 2026-07-28

  • AXTI: regime upgraded collapse → pullback; RSI climbed to 51.3, the highest in the book, on a +28.74% single-day move (3.38x average volume) and +27.95% for the week; -57.79% from 52-week high (was -70.13%).
  • COHR: regime upgraded collapse → pullback; RSI 31.6 → 40.5; 30-day loss narrowed to -28.69% (was -37.8%).
  • AAOI: regime upgraded collapse → pullback; RSI 35.0 → 40.7; 30-day loss narrowed to -32.14% (was -41.28%).
  • FORM: regime upgraded collapse → pullback; RSI 33.7 → 46.4; 30-day loss narrowed to -27.82% (was -38.8%).
  • GLW: regime upgraded downtrend → pullback; RSI 31.0 → 38.3; 30-day loss narrowed to -37.34% (was -50.72%).
  • LITE: RSI 37.5 → 45.4, thesis still intact; 30-day loss narrowed to -10.89% (was -23.43%).
  • CLS: RSI cooled 52.0 → 47.3, regime held pullback; 30-day flipped from +2.02% to -8.35%.
  • POET: RSI 36.8 → 41.0, thesis still intact, regime held downtrend; -66.41% from high (was -67.52%).
  • SOI.PA / ALRIB.PA / LPK.DE: all three received their first fresh print in several cycles after being frozen on 2026-07-24 data — none of the fresh readings showed improvement.
  • LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, ALMU: all five carried their collapse tag forward for another cycle; ALMU's thesis stays rated no-view.
  • IBIDF: still thin — 100 shares traded this cycle vs. a 1,332-share average (0.08x).
  • NGKIF: bar now dated 2026-07-30 (was 2026-07-27), still near-zero volume; RSI fell to 21.9, now the lowest in the book.

How To Read The Board

Regime labels describe chart structure, not a buy/sell call. Five upgrades in one cycle — four out of collapse, one out of downtrend — is the most structurally significant move this book has shown recently, and AXTI's volume (3.38x average on the day) is the kind of confirmation a regime change needs. The five names still tagged collapse improved on RSI without the label lifting, which reads as stabilization, not repair, until the tag itself changes. The three newly-fresh European prints (SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE) settle a multi-cycle data gap, but the readings that emerged are ordinary pullback numbers, not a hidden strength story.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI 7D% 30D% vs SMA20 Trend From 52wkHigh
AXTI $60.43 51.3 +27.95% -7.07% +15.3% weak-down -57.79% (regime: pullback, upgraded from collapse)
PLAB $30.29 48.5 -0.13% -0.07% +2.8% strong-down -45.91% (regime: collapse)
AEHR $79.98 48.5 +4.8% -5.27% +3.0% weak-down -36.83%
SOI.PA €104.00 48.1 -9.76% -10.84% +3.3% weak-down -48.13% (fresh print this cycle)
CLS $331.44 47.3 +8.57% -8.35% -1.1% weak-down -30.08%
FORM $106.20 46.4 +2.08% -27.82% -1.7% weak-down -33.74% (regime: pullback, upgraded from collapse)
ALAB $311.23 46.3 +6.74% -27.77% -7.4% weak-down -37.69%
TSEM $219.67 46.0 -5.87% -10.51% -3.9% weak-down -31.34%
JBL $315.05 45.6 +0.79% -16.06% -0.4% weak-down -26.55%
LITE $713.94 45.4 -6.43% -10.89% -4.2% weak-down -34.24% (thesis: intact)
IQEPF $0.53 45.4 -17.19% -13.11% -3.9% weak-down -44.39%
ALMU $16.20 45.0 +13.92% -20.98% +0.6% down -49.04% (regime: collapse; thesis: no-view)
KOPN $3.52 43.9 -1.68% -16.59% -6.7% weak-down -46.75%
ONTO $258.58 43.8 -5.15% -26.41% -8.8% weak-down -33.09%
LWLG $6.46 43.4 +6.78% -20.44% -0.3% down -65.47% (regime: collapse)
SMTC $117.82 42.6 -6.43% -19.87% -8.1% weak-down -33.57%
CIEN $377.05 42.4 -3.56% -18.47% -6.7% weak-down -40.86% (thesis: intact-but-priced)
MXL $66.82 42.3 -6.66% -40.55% -16.3% weak-down -47.92%
VIAV $36.95 41.8 -6.5% -21.5% -6.5% weak-down -38.85%
HIMX $12.54 41.6 -5.5% -18.25% -7.2% weak-down -50.02% (data 07-30)
LPTH $10.37 41.3 -4.25% -34.74% -9.2% down -45.25% (regime: collapse)
POET $6.99 41.0 +1.45% -27.94% -10.0% down -66.41% (regime: downtrend; thesis: intact)
SNDK $1214.83 40.8 -15.43% -40.22% -19.5% weak-down -48.4%
AAOI $94.32 40.7 -5.82% -32.14% -11.7% weak-down -59.64% (regime: pullback, upgraded from collapse)
COHR $262.89 40.5 -6.91% -28.69% -10.1% weak-down -40.25% (regime: pullback, upgraded from collapse)
6779.T ¥2590 40.3 -8.06% -31.12% -12.8% weak-down -48.3%
IBIDF $98.35 40.3 -8.7% -31.22% -9.7% weak-down -35.92% (thin volume, 0.08x average)
LPK.DE €14.25 39.6 +3.64% -33.41% -10.0% weak-down -53.73% (fresh print this cycle)
SIVEF $3.28 38.8 +4.79% -45.7% -14.0% neutral -70.84% (regime: too-young)
FLTCF $3.16 38.7 -9.2% -15.96% -8.3% weak-down -62.82%
GLW $138.25 38.3 -5.73% -37.34% -14.8% weak-down -49.13% (regime: pullback, upgraded from downtrend)
FN $435.41 37.2 -8.53% -20.43% -8.6% down -41.86% (regime: collapse)
OPTX $6.53 37.0 -7.38% -46.34% -16.8% weak-down -56.23%
LAZR $37.46 37.0 -3.0% -21.12% -5.3% neutral -26.25% (regime: too-young)
MTSI $251.44 36.1 -5.82% -28.29% -10.5% weak-down -39.98%
ALRIB.PA €9.03 34.6 -8.88% -21.07% -8.3% weak-down -51.19% (fresh print this cycle)
NGKIF $32.96 21.9 -13.26% -29.38% -19.7% weak-down -31.97% (data 07-30, near-zero volume)

Tier Analysis

Tier A — Steadier pocket, RSI 44+, non-collapse (10): AXTI (freshly repaired), AEHR, SOI.PA (fresh print), CLS, FORM (freshly repaired), ALAB, TSEM, JBL, LITE (thesis intact), IQEPF.

Tier B — Broad digestion, pullback/downtrend, non-collapse (18): KOPN, ONTO, SMTC, CIEN (intact-but-priced), MXL, VIAV, HIMX, POET (downtrend, thesis intact), SNDK, AAOI (freshly repaired), COHR (freshly repaired), 6779.T, LPK.DE (fresh print), FLTCF, GLW (freshly repaired), OPTX, MTSI, ALRIB.PA (fresh print).

Tier C — Structural avoid, regime collapse (5 of 37, down from 9): LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, ALMU (thesis: no-view).

Tier D — Data caveat (4): NGKIF (one-session-stale, near-zero volume), IBIDF (thin print, 0.08x average volume), SIVEF and LAZR (too-young regime, no confirmed structure yet).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
AXTI $60.43 51.3 -7.07% Fresh regime upgrade out of collapse on the sharpest single-day volume in the book — needs a second cycle to confirm
GLW $138.25 38.3 -37.34% Regime upgraded out of downtrend this cycle, though 30-day damage is still deep — worth a fresh look
LITE $713.94 45.4 -10.89% Thesis intact, 30-day loss narrowed materially this cycle
POET $6.99 41.0 -27.94% Regime held downtrend for a second cycle, thesis intact, 52-week distance nudged in the right direction

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 RESEARCH AXTI, COHR, AAOI, FORM, GLW All five freshly repaired out of a broken regime this cycle — worth confirming the upgrade holds
📈 ACCUMULATE LITE, POET Thesis-rated names, both showing narrowing losses this cycle
⚠️ AVOID AEHR, SOI.PA, CLS, ALAB, TSEM, JBL, IQEPF, KOPN, ONTO, SMTC, CIEN, MXL, VIAV, HIMX, SNDK, 6779.T, LPK.DE, FLTCF, OPTX, MTSI, ALRIB.PA Broad digestion, RSI under 49, deep monthly losses
❌ DON'T BUY LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, ALMU Collapse regime, carried forward another cycle; ALMU's thesis is rated no-view
🔍 DATA CAVEAT NGKIF, IBIDF, SIVEF, LAZR Near-zero/thin volume (NGKIF, IBIDF) or too-young regime (SIVEF, LAZR)

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
The five freshly-repaired names (AXTI, COHR, AAOI, FORM, GLW) This cycle's headline — needs a second cycle to confirm the upgrades aren't a single-week bounce
AXTI's volume-confirmed move 3.38x average volume on a +28.74% day is the strongest single-name confirmation in the book
The remaining collapse pocket (LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, ALMU) RSI improved across most of these names without the tag lifting — worth checking whether the next print brings a regime change too
SOI.PA/ALRIB.PA/LPK.DE's next print First fresh reading in several cycles just landed and didn't show strength — the next print will show whether this is a floor
NGKIF's next liquid print Still effectively untradeable on volume, now also the lowest RSI in the book

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 close — optical-supply-chain.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.