Last cycle's relief bounce reversed hard — RSI fell across nearly the whole 37-name book and four names (COHR, AXTI, AAOI, FORM) freshly crossed into collapse-regime territory, growing that bucket from seven to nine. The one clean exception is CLS, whose regime flipped from collapse to pullback as RSI ran from 38.8 to 52.0, now the second-highest reading in the book. POET's regime also lifted out of collapse into downtrend even as its distance from its 52-week high widened further — a split read between structure and price.

Data as-of the 2026-07-28 close for most of the book. SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, and LPK.DE carry bars still dated 2026-07-24 — their readings are unchanged from the prior cycle and should be read as frozen, not fresh. NGKIF's newest bar is 2026-07-27 (one session behind) on effectively zero volume. IBIDF printed a trade this cycle (volume 100) but at 0.08x its average — still too thin to trust as confirmed. Prior scan: 2026-07-25-optical-supply-chain (data as-of the 2026-07-24 close).

The stabilization flagged last cycle didn't hold. Across most of the book RSI slipped back down and 30-day losses widened again: LITE's RSI fell from 46.0 to 37.5 even as its thesis stays rated intact, COHR's RSI dropped from 38.0 to 31.6 while its regime crossed into collapse for the first time this cycle, and CIEN, ALAB, GLW, and SNDK all posted lower RSI readings alongside deeper monthly losses. Four names newly carry the collapse tag this cycle — COHR, AXTI, AAOI, and FORM — none of which were tagged collapse last cycle, taking the structurally-damaged bucket from seven names to nine. Against that broader slide, CLS is the standout: its regime lifted from collapse to pullback as RSI climbed from 38.8 to 52.0, now the second-highest reading in the 37-name book behind only the stale SOI.PA print. POET also crossed out of collapse into downtrend, though its distance from its 52-week high widened from -63.48% to -67.52% in the same move — a name whose structure improved while its price kept losing ground, still rated thesis-intact. Three names carry frozen bars dated 2026-07-24 (SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE) — their RSI and returns are identical to last cycle's numbers and shouldn't be read as a fresh signal either way. NGKIF remains effectively untradeable on volume; IBIDF printed a trade this cycle but at a fraction of its average volume.

• CLS: regime upgraded collapse → pullback; RSI 38.8 → 52.0, the sharpest structural repair in the book; -26.12% from 52-week high (was -29.38%).
• POET: regime upgraded collapse → downtrend; RSI 35.1 → 36.8, thesis still rated intact; -67.52% from high (was -63.48%) — structure improved, price kept falling.
• COHR: regime downgraded to collapse (freshly tagged); RSI 38.0 → 31.6, 30-day loss deepened to -37.8% (was -28.05%).
• AXTI: regime downgraded to collapse; RSI roughly flat at 36.2 (was 38.2), 30-day loss deepened to -40.16% (was -32.66%).
• AAOI: regime downgraded to collapse; RSI 38.6 → 35.0, 30-day loss deepened to -41.28% (was -31.86%).
• FORM: regime downgraded to collapse; RSI fell from 40.2 to 33.7, 30-day loss deepened to -38.8% (was -26.43%).
• LITE: RSI 46.0 → 37.5, thesis still intact, 30-day loss deepened to -23.43% (was -9.44%) — the mildest-hit name last cycle lost that distinction.
• SNDK: RSI 42.3 → 34.5, 30-day loss deepened to -46.54% (was -24.96%).
• SOI.PA / ALRIB.PA / LPK.DE: all three still carry bars dated 2026-07-24 — no fresh print this cycle, readings unchanged.
• NGKIF: bar now dated 2026-07-27, still effectively zero volume.
• IBIDF: printed a trade this cycle (volume 100 vs. average 1,286) — thin but no longer literally zero.

Regime labels describe chart structure, not a buy/sell call, and this cycle's split between price and structure runs in both directions. COHR, AXTI, AAOI, and FORM all crossed into collapse even though none of their weekly moves looked like a standalone crash — the tag reflects the chart pattern, not a single day. CLS and POET both moved the opposite way, exiting collapse even as POET's 52-week distance widened — a name can repair structurally while still losing ground on price. Treat SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE, and NGKIF as frozen or too-thin to read as confirmed signal until a fresh, liquid print arrives.

Tier A — Steadier pocket, RSI 40+ (6): SOI.PA (frozen 07-24 print), CLS, IQEPF, FLTCF, KOPN, AEHR. CLS is the only one of these that upgraded a structural tag this cycle.

Tier B — Broad digestion, pullback/downtrend, non-collapse (18): TSEM, ALRIB.PA (stale), LITE (thesis intact), POET (thesis intact, upgraded), MXL, JBL, ONTO, HIMX, SMTC, LPK.DE (stale), VIAV, SNDK, ALAB, OPTX, CIEN (intact-but-priced), 6779.T, GLW, MTSI.

Tier C — Structural avoid, regime collapse (9 of 37, up from 7): COHR, AXTI, AAOI, FORM (all four newly tagged this cycle), LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, ALMU (carried from last cycle; ALMU thesis: no-view).

Tier D — Data caveat (4): NGKIF (one-session-stale, near-zero volume), IBIDF (thin print, 0.08x average volume), SIVEF and LAZR (too-young regime, no confirmed structure yet).

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-28 close — optical-supply-chain.