Optical Supply Chain Scan

Scan

Optical Supply Chain Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 53 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusscheduledprior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-17-optical-supply-chain.md

The book found a floor after two brutal cycles — most of the 37-name list flipped from negative to positive on the week, 30-day losses narrowed broadly, and SOI.PA (+35.95% 7D) and IQEPF (+31.14% 7D, RSI up to 55.6) posted the sharpest turnarounds. But the repair wasn't universal: POET and ALMU both crossed from a downtrend regime into outright collapse this cycle, growing the structurally-damaged bucket to seven names, and NGKIF's illiquid print is now two sessions stale.

Data as-of the Friday 2026-07-24 close for most of the book. NGKIF's newest bar is dated 2026-07-22 (two sessions behind) on effectively zero volume. IBIDF shows zero volume for this session — one of several thin OTC names that did not print a fresh Friday trade; read its number as carried-forward, not a fresh close. Prior scan: 2026-07-17-optical-supply-chain (data as-of the 2026-07-17 close).

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Broad stabilization after last cycle's rout, but two names (POET, ALMU) deteriorated on structure even as price cooled
Key insight SOI.PA's RSI ran from 33.3 to 53.9 on a +35.95% week — the sharpest single-cycle turnaround in the book

What's Going On

This cycle reads as relief after two straight cycles of breakdown, though it stops short of a clean repair. Where nearly every name in the July 17 board carried a negative weekly print, most of the book now shows a positive or flat 7-day read, and 30-day losses have narrowed across the board — SNDK's 30-day loss eased from -37.99% to -24.96%, MXL's weekly swing flipped from -21.31% to -0.35%, and ALAB's brutal -26.48% week reversed to just -3.97% (though its 30-day figure is still roughly flat at -27.09%). The clearest turnarounds sit at the top of the RSI ladder: SOI.PA jumped from RSI 33.3 to 53.9 on a +35.95% weekly gain, and IQEPF ran from RSI 41.2 to 55.6 with its trend upgraded to strong-up on a +31.14% week — both now carry the strongest reads in the book, though neither has a thesis rating attached. LITE remains the mildest-damaged, rated-intact name in the book at RSI 46.0 and -23.21% from its 52-week high. Against that broad repair, two names moved the wrong way structurally: POET and ALMU both crossed from a downtrend regime into collapse this cycle. POET's thesis stays rated intact despite the downgrade; ALMU's rating shifted from unrated to a "no-view" call. The collapse-regime bucket now holds seven names (LWLG, FN, CLS, PLAB, LPTH, POET, ALMU), up from five last cycle. NGKIF's illiquid read persists — its bar is now dated 2026-07-22, two sessions behind the rest of the book, still on effectively no volume. IBIDF's print shows zero volume for this session; the day's data notes flag several thin OTC names, IBIDF included, that carried a stale bar forward rather than trading fresh Friday.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (07-17 → 07-24)

  • POET: regime downgraded downtrend → collapse; thesis still rated intact; RSI 36.1 → 35.1, -63.48% from high (was -64.49%).
  • ALMU: regime downgraded downtrend → collapse; thesis rating shifted from unrated to "no-view"; RSI 32.5 → 34.7.
  • SOI.PA: RSI 33.3 → 53.9, 7-day +35.95% (was -14.57%), 30-day flipped from -32.86% to +7.41% — the sharpest turnaround in the book.
  • IQEPF: RSI 41.2 → 55.6, trend upgraded to strong-up, 7-day +31.14% (was -3.85%).
  • SNDK: 30-day improved from -37.99% to -24.96%, 7-day flipped from -29.29% to +6.03%; -31.60% from high (was -42.46%).
  • ALAB: 7-day flipped from -26.48% to -3.97%; 30-day roughly flat at -27.09% (was -27.20%).
  • MXL: 7-day flipped from -21.31% to -0.35%; 30-day improved from -19.06% to -15.77%.
  • NGKIF: bar now two sessions stale (2026-07-22, was one session behind last cycle), still effectively zero volume; RSI 33.0 remains untradeable as signal.
  • IBIDF: zero volume this session — carried-forward print, not a fresh close; RSI shows 38.8 (was 27.8) but should not be read as confirmed.
  • LAZR: now carries an RSI reading (30.9) for the first time; still a too-young regime with no SMA data.

How To Read The Board

Regime labels describe chart structure, not a buy/sell call. This cycle's headline is the split between price and structure: most names bounced on price, but POET and ALMU both lost structural ground by crossing into collapse — a name can look better week-over-week on RSI and still be structurally worse. Treat NGKIF's and IBIDF's readings as noise until a fresh, liquid session confirms them; both carry explicit data caveats this cycle, not clean signals.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI 7D% 30D% vs SMA20 Trend From 52wkHigh
IQEPF $0.64 55.6 +31.14% -2.64% +14.2% strong-up -33.89%
SOI.PA €115.25 53.9 +35.95% +7.41% +10.8% weak-down -42.52%
TSEM $233.37 46.6 -0.31% -15.24% -1.9% weak-down -18.60%
PLAB $30.33 46.3 +5.13% -4.17% +1.8% down -44.75% (regime: collapse)
LITE $762.99 46.0 +4.12% -9.44% -2.1% weak-down -23.21% (thesis: intact)
AEHR $76.32 44.6 -5.84% -19.83% -5.8% weak-down -30.10%
FLTCF $3.48 44.3 +6.75% -8.90% -1.1% weak-down -59.06%
ONTO $272.62 42.3 -2.58% -15.40% -11.4% weak-down -24.63%
SMTC $125.92 42.3 +0.77% -20.55% -8.2% weak-down -21.80%
SNDK $1436.56 42.3 +6.03% -24.96% -16.7% weak-down -31.60%
KOPN $3.58 42.1 -6.04% -7.01% -9.0% weak-down -42.51%
MXL $71.59 41.9 -0.35% -15.77% -21.4% weak-down -28.89%
VIAV $39.52 41.6 +3.56% -20.02% -6.4% weak-down -30.83%
LPTH $10.83 40.5 +3.54% -16.69% -13.9% down -34.69% (regime: collapse)
FN $476.04 40.2 -0.49% -16.22% -4.6% down -30.87% (regime: collapse)
FORM $104.04 40.2 -1.45% -26.43% -12.7% weak-down -29.65%
CIEN $390.96 39.7 +4.42% -15.65% -9.2% weak-down -36.07%
JBL $312.59 39.6 +3.85% -15.93% -5.8% weak-down -24.92%
6779.T ¥2817 39.6 +7.38% -28.14% -13.5% weak-down -43.77%
IBIDF $107.72 38.8 +9.95% -26.55% -11.3% weak-down -29.81% (zero volume this session)
CLS $305.28 38.8 +1.31% -15.72% -9.8% down -29.38% (regime: collapse)
ALAB $291.58 38.1 -3.97% -27.09% -22.1% weak-down -34.54%
AXTI $47.23 38.2 +2.99% -32.66% -17.7% weak-down -63.03%
COHR $282.39 38.0 +1.73% -28.05% -12.7% weak-down -28.81%
AAOI $100.15 38.6 -2.21% -31.86% -15.9% weak-down -52.06%
HIMX $12.62 38.5 -1.41% -18.37% -9.6% weak-down -47.11%
ALRIB.PA €9.91 38.4 +3.01% -15.30% -4.5% weak-down -46.43%
LWLG $6.05 36.6 -2.89% -27.89% -14.7% down -64.30% (regime: collapse)
GLW $146.65 36.4 -5.15% -28.75% -21.3% weak-down -42.58%
OPTX $7.05 36.2 -5.87% -31.75% -22.2% weak-down -49.40%
LPK.DE €13.75 35.2 -6.33% -45.00% -21.4% weak-down -55.36%
POET $6.89 35.1 -6.77% -35.37% -18.4% down -63.48% (regime: collapse; thesis: intact)
SIVEF $3.13 34.8 -14.71% -61.41% -32.6% neutral -69.96% (regime: too-young)
ALMU $14.22 34.7 -2.64% -32.37% -18.8% down -49.83% (regime: collapse)
MTSI $266.99 33.6 -0.14% -28.44% -13.5% weak-down -32.49%
NGKIF $38.00 33.0 -18.38% -21.57% -14.5% weak-down -21.58% (data 07-22, ~zero volume — illiquid read)
LAZR $38.62 30.9 +3.12% -23.68% n/a neutral -19.02% (regime: too-young)

Tier Analysis

Tier A — Turnaround pocket, RSI 40+ (stabilizing, mostly positive on the week): IQEPF, SOI.PA, TSEM, LITE, AEHR, FLTCF, ONTO, SMTC, SNDK, KOPN, MXL, VIAV, FORM. IQEPF and SOI.PA lead with the strongest weekly moves in the book.

Tier B — Broad digestion, structure holding (RSI 33-40): COHR, CIEN, ALAB, MTSI, GLW, JBL, AXTI, AAOI, ALRIB.PA, OPTX, LPK.DE, 6779.T, HIMX. Most of these still carry double-digit 30-day losses even as the weekly print stabilizes.

Tier C — Structural avoid (regime collapse, 7 of 37): LWLG, FN, CLS, PLAB, LPTH, POET, ALMU. POET and ALMU are fresh entries this cycle, both downgraded from downtrend.

Tier D — Data caveat: NGKIF (two-session-stale bar, near-zero volume), IBIDF (zero volume this session), SIVEF and LAZR (too-young regime, no confirmed structure yet).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
LITE $762.99 46.0 -9.44% Thesis intact, mildest 30-day damage in the book — the closest thing to a stable, rated name here
POET $6.89 35.1 -35.37% Thesis intact, but regime just crossed into collapse — deep damage paired with the weakest structural tag in the book; a repair call needs a floor first
SOI.PA €115.25 53.9 +7.41% Sharpest turnaround in the book, but no thesis rating — worth tracking for follow-through, not yet a rated entry
NGKIF $38.00 33.0 -21.57% Two-session-stale, effectively zero volume — do not treat this RSI as a tradeable signal

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 RESEARCH LITE, POET Thesis-intact names; LITE is the mildest hit in the book, POET the deepest and now regime-downgraded
📈 ACCUMULATE SOI.PA, IQEPF Sharpest confirmed turnarounds this cycle, worth tracking for follow-through
⚠️ AVOID TSEM, PLAB, AEHR, FLTCF, ONTO, SMTC, SNDK, KOPN, MXL, VIAV, FORM, COHR, CIEN, ALAB, MTSI, GLW, JBL, AXTI, AAOI, ALRIB.PA, OPTX, LPK.DE, 6779.T, HIMX Broad digestion, RSI <47, still double-digit 30-day losses
❌ DON'T BUY LWLG, FN, CLS, PLAB, LPTH, ALMU Regime collapse, no repair signal
🔍 DATA CAVEAT NGKIF, IBIDF, SIVEF, LAZR Stale/illiquid (NGKIF, IBIDF) or too-young with no confirmed structure yet (SIVEF, LAZR)

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
POET/ALMU's collapse-regime entry Both crossed from downtrend into collapse this cycle even as broader price stabilized — a structural warning inside an otherwise-repairing book
SOI.PA/IQEPF follow-through The book's sharpest turnarounds this cycle — neither carries a thesis rating, so confirmation matters before treating either as more than a bounce
NGKIF's next liquid print Now two sessions stale on effectively zero volume — needs a real trade to mean anything
IBIDF's carried-forward bar Flagged among the day's thin-OTC names without a fresh Friday print — recheck next cycle
Whether the broad 7-day repair holds Most of the book flipped positive on the week after two brutal cycles — the next print tells us if this is a floor or a bounce

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-24 close — *.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.