Optical Supply Chain Scan
Optical Supply Chain Scan
The photonics complex is still digesting its prior extension rather than breaking — most of the book sits in the low-to-mid 40s RSI with golden-cross structure intact, but the leadership pocket cooled hard: ALAB eased from RSI 59.4 to 55.0 and SNDK bounced off its lows (RSI 46.9 → 52.1) while FN is the one name that got structurally worse, sliding from a "downtrend" to a "collapse" regime label. LAZR's read is a day older than the rest of the book (2026-07-09) and carries no RSI yet — treat it as unrated this cycle, not as a signal.
Data as-of 2026-07-10 close (LAZR: 2026-07-09). Prior scan: 2026-07-07-optical-supply-chain (data as-of 2026-07-06 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Broad digestion continues — most names cooling inside intact golden-cross structure, no fresh breakdown outside PLAB/FN/LWLG |
| Key insight | FN's regime downgrade (downtrend → collapse) is the sharpest deterioration in the book; SNDK is the one name that genuinely repaired this week |
What's Going On
The book is still working off the parabolic extension flagged last scan, and that process is continuing in an orderly way for most names — RSI compressed further into the high-30s/mid-40s while golden-cross structure (present on 35 of 37 names) stayed intact. The uptrend leadership pocket (NGKIF, ALAB, ONTO, SNDK, MXL) held together but cooled: ALAB's RSI eased from 59.4 to 55.0 as its 30-day gain decelerated from +24.95% to +12.38%, and NGKIF's read is effectively unchanged week over week — worth flagging that NGKIF shows zero traded volume and zero relative volume in this pull, so its RSI 69.7 reading should be treated as thin/illiquid rather than a tradeable breakout signal. SNDK is the standout repair story: RSI moved from 46.9 to 52.1 and its distance from its 52-week high improved from -25.91% to -18.62% on a 7-day bounce. FN is the standout deterioration: its regime label moved from "downtrend" to "collapse," RSI slid from 36.3 to 33.8, and it's now -37.09% from its 52-week high (was -33.13%). PLAB remains in a collapse regime, largely unchanged. LAZR (Luminar) is the one data gap in this cycle — its close is dated 2026-07-09, a day behind the rest of the book, and it has no RSI or trend reading yet (regime: too-young).
What Changed Since Prior Scan (07-06 → 07-10)
- ALAB cooled from RSI 59.4 to 55.0 as its 30-day gain decelerated (+24.95% → +12.38%); still strong-up trend, still the resilience story, just less extended.
- SNDK repaired: RSI 46.9 → 52.1, 7-day flipped from -10.17% to +6.34%, distance from 52-week high improved from -25.91% to -18.62%.
- FN deteriorated the most in the book: regime downgraded from "downtrend" to "collapse," RSI 36.3 → 33.8, distance from high widened from -33.13% to -37.09%.
- AEHR's air-pocket stabilized on the week (7-day flipped from -21.78% to -0.94%) even as its 30-day reading deepened (-24.33% → -29.54%) — a mixed read, not yet a repair.
- AXTI kept deteriorating: RSI 39.1 → 37.2, 30-day loss deepened from -30.03% to -35.24%, now -60.04% from its 52-week high (was -55.63%).
- FLTCF's dead-cat bounce continued but lost momentum: 7-day eased from +21.07% to +4.00%.
- PLAB stayed in its collapse regime with little net change (RSI 38.4 → 42.5, roughly flat 30-day).
- LAZR's close is now a day stale relative to the rest of the book (2026-07-09 vs 2026-07-10) with no RSI printed — a data gap, not a new signal.
How To Read The Board
Trend and regime labels describe chart structure, not a buy/sell call. "Pullback" on a golden-cross name (most of this book) means digestion inside an intact longer-term uptrend — RSI in the 40s here is not automatically a discount. "Collapse" or "downtrend" regime (PLAB, FN, LWLG, ALMU) means the structure itself is damaged; a bounce inside that regime is not a confirmed turn until the regime label changes. LAZR's stale/unrated read this cycle should be skipped for ranking purposes rather than treated as a weak signal.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs SMA20 | Trend | From 52wkHigh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NGKIF | $46.56 | 69.7 | n/a | +17.25% | +2.6% | strong-up | -3.91% (regime: uptrend, zero volume — illiquid read) |
| ALAB | $412.97 | 55.0 | -7.89% | +12.38% | +1.7% | strong-up | -17.32% |
| ONTO | $321.44 | 52.7 | +2.41% | +5.90% | -0.9% | strong-up | -16.82% |
| SNDK | $1915.92 | 52.1 | +6.34% | +1.83% | -3.4% | strong-up | -18.62% |
| MXL | $91.30 | 50.1 | -11.49% | +12.59% | -2.3% | strong-up | -28.84% |
| CLS | $359.85 | 48.5 | +1.61% | -6.74% | -1.2% | weak-down | -24.09% |
| CIEN | $460.72 | 47.6 | +3.95% | +3.48% | +1.6% | weak-down | -27.73% |
| GLW | $190.89 | 47.4 | -5.43% | +8.12% | -5.2% | strong-up | -29.76% |
| LITE | $802.01 | 47.3 | +7.86% | -9.84% | -3.2% | weak-down | -26.13% |
| HIMX | $15.23 | 46.7 | +6.50% | -12.32% | -2.9% | weak-down | -39.30% |
| 6779.T | ¥3345 | 45.8 | -11.30% | -21.66% | -12.2% | strong-up | -33.23% |
| SMTC | $136.13 | 44.7 | -5.77% | -16.78% | -10.8% | weak-down | -23.24% |
| FORM | $117.52 | 44.4 | -9.04% | -9.77% | -13.6% | weak-down | -26.67% |
| IBIDF | $120.53 | 43.2 | n/a | +18.98% | -9.7% | strong-up | -21.46% |
| FLTCF | $3.59 | 43.1 | +4.00% | -14.32% | -10.8% | weak-down | -57.76% |
| IQEPF | $0.52 | 42.6 | -5.26% | -14.75% | -16.9% | weak-down | -45.02% |
| VIAV | $43.08 | 42.5 | -3.10% | -14.25% | -9.0% | weak-down | -28.71% |
| PLAB | $29.90 | 42.5 | +1.01% | -2.70% | -3.2% | down | -46.61% (regime: collapse) |
| KOPN | $3.90 | 42.5 | -5.34% | -23.98% | -10.1% | weak-down | -41.00% |
| OPTX | $9.09 | 42.2 | -18.75% | -35.58% | -18.0% | weak-down | -39.08% |
| TSEM | $222.75 | 42.1 | -1.23% | -13.78% | -12.7% | weak-down | -30.38% |
| COHR | $324.50 | 41.1 | -7.37% | -10.75% | -12.4% | weak-down | -26.25% |
| LPK.DE | €17.40 | 39.9 | -6.63% | -6.95% | -21.2% | weak-down | -43.51% |
| JBL | $330.29 | 39.8 | -4.44% | -12.36% | -8.9% | weak-down | -23.00% |
| AEHR | $72.60 | 39.5 | -0.94% | -29.54% | -22.1% | weak-down | -42.66% |
| AAOI | $119.92 | 39.0 | -6.58% | -30.59% | -18.0% | weak-down | -48.68% |
| SIVEF | $4.97 | 38.9 | -1.19% | -44.22% | -33.1% | neutral | -55.78% (regime: too-young) |
| LPTH | $11.74 | 38.7 | -22.02% | -24.94% | -16.8% | weak-down | -38.01% |
| SOI.PA | €98.00 | 38.4 | -15.15% | -21.82% | -15.0% | weak-down | -51.12% |
| POET | $8.31 | 38.2 | -9.48% | -26.13% | -20.4% | weak-down | -60.07% (thesis: intact) |
| MTSI | $308.52 | 38.1 | -9.28% | -17.68% | -13.8% | weak-down | -26.35% |
| ALRIB.PA | €10.30 | 38.0 | -6.19% | -16.94% | -12.2% | weak-down | -44.32% |
| ALMU | $17.60 | 38.0 | -9.37% | -29.15% | -17.7% | down | -44.64% (regime: downtrend) |
| AXTI | $57.21 | 37.2 | -14.54% | -35.24% | -24.3% | weak-down | -60.04% |
| LWLG | $6.83 | 35.5 | -9.55% | -31.97% | -20.1% | down | -63.50% (regime: collapse) |
| LAZR | $43.47 | n/a | -8.58% | n/a | n/a | neutral | -1.53% (regime: too-young, data 07-09) |
Tier Analysis
Tier A — Confirmed Strength (strong-up, RSI 48+): NGKIF, ALAB, ONTO, SNDK, MXL. All five held golden-cross uptrends through the week's cooldown. NGKIF's headline RSI is the least trustworthy of the five given zero traded volume in this pull.
Tier B — Digestion, structure intact (RSI 40-48, weak-down/down but golden-cross holding): CLS, CIEN, GLW, LITE, HIMX, 6779.T, SMTC, FORM, IBIDF, FLTCF, IQEPF, VIAV, KOPN, OPTX, TSEM, COHR. This is most of the book — a broad, orderly pullback, not a breakdown.
Tier C — Deeper damage (RSI <40, mostly weak-down/down): LPK.DE, JBL, AEHR, AAOI, SIVEF, LPTH, SOI.PA, POET, MTSI, ALRIB.PA. POET is the one name here carrying a thesis-intact rating despite the price damage.
Tier D — Structural avoid (regime downtrend/collapse): PLAB, FN, LWLG, ALMU. FN is the fresh addition this week — its regime downgrade from downtrend to collapse is the sharpest deterioration in the book.
Tier E — Data caveat: LAZR — 2026-07-09 close (a day behind the book), no RSI, regime too-young. Skip ranking until a fresh print lands.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POET | $8.31 | 38.2 | -26.13% | Thesis intact, deep pullback (-60.07% from high) — the one name in the damaged tier with a rated thesis; watch for basing before adding |
| SNDK | $1915.92 | 52.1 | +1.83% | Already repairing (RSI 46.9→52.1) — hold/watch, not a fresh discount entry |
| AEHR | $72.60 | 39.5 | -29.54% | 7-day stabilized but 30-day still deepening — wait for the 30-day trend to turn before treating as an entry |
| NGKIF | $46.56 | 69.7 | +17.25% | Zero-volume print — do not treat this RSI as a tradeable signal until real volume returns |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | NGKIF, ALAB, ONTO, SNDK, MXL | Golden-cross strong-up structure intact through this week's cooldown |
| 🔍 WATCH | CLS, CIEN, GLW, LITE, HIMX, 6779.T, SMTC, FORM, IBIDF, FLTCF, IQEPF, VIAV, KOPN, OPTX, TSEM, COHR, AEHR | Broad digestion, structure not yet broken, no confirmed turn either |
| 🔍 RESEARCH | POET | Thesis rated intact despite deep price damage — worth a closer look before dismissing |
| ⚠️ AVOID | LPK.DE, JBL, AAOI, SIVEF, LPTH, SOI.PA, MTSI, ALRIB.PA | RSI <40, weak-down/down, no thesis confirmation |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | PLAB, FN, LWLG, ALMU, AXTI | Regime collapse/downtrend or accelerating breakdown (AXTI) |
| 🔍 DATA CAVEAT | LAZR | Stale close (07-09), no RSI — re-check next cycle before acting |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| NGKIF's volume | RSI 69.7 on zero traded volume is not a confirmed breakout — needs a real print to matter |
| FN's regime downgrade | Downtrend → collapse is the sharpest deterioration in the book this week |
| LAZR's next close | Currently a day stale (07-09) with no RSI — first fresh print will re-rate it |
| AEHR's 30-day trend | 7-day stabilized (-21.78% → -0.94%) but 30-day is still deepening — needs to turn before calling it a repair |
| ALAB's cooldown pace | RSI eased from 59.4 to 55.0 without breaking trend — watch whether it keeps decelerating in an orderly way |
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.