Optical Supply Chain Scan
Optical Supply Chain Scan
The AI-optics complex is bifurcated: the CPO/co-packaged-optics enablers (ALAB RSI 69.8 +231% 3M, SNDK RSI 70.8 +183% 3M, ONTO RSI 65.5, FORM RSI 60.2, 6779.T RSI 65.9 +262% 3M) and Japanese/European feeders (NGKIF, IBIDF +251% 3M, SIVEF +736% 3M) carry monster trends near 52wk highs, while the headline transceiver/component names are pulling back hard — CIEN (RSI 36.3, -21% 30D, -33% from high), PLAB (RSI 35.3, -36% 30D), AXTI (RSI 43.3, -24% 7D), VIAV (RSI 45.5, -16% 7D). NGKIF at RSI 83 is the lone overbought extreme. No US name is oversold (lowest US RSI ~35).
Latest bar Thursday 2026-06-18 (Fri 06-19 Juneteenth, closed). Foreign listings (.PA/.DE/.T + OTC ADRs) trade on other calendars — 06-15/06-17/06-19 dates noted as "(foreign listing)", not throttle-stale. US names below 06-18 flagged "(2d stale)".
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Sharply bifurcated — CPO/packaging/test enablers (ALAB, ONTO, FORM, SNDK, AEHR, 6779.T) and foreign feeders at all-time-high momentum; transceiver/laser/photomask names (CIEN, PLAB, VIAV, AXTI, AAOI, FN) pulling back below SMA20 |
| Key insight | The picks-and-shovels layer (packaging, test, substrates) is leading; the optical-module layer (CIEN/AAOI/FN/LITE) is correcting. NGKIF RSI 83 is the only true overbought; no oversold US names — the pullbacks are mid-RSI digestion, not capitulation |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NGKIF | $41.50 | 83 ↑ | +7.1% | — | +10.02% | +63.90% | -1.19% | ⚠️ Avoid (foreign listing, 06-15) |
| SNDK | $2184.75 | 70.8 | +24.1% | +5.78% | +41.66% | +182.97% | -8.11% | 🔒 Hold |
| ALAB | $417.07 | 69.8 | +20.0% | +5.68% | +70.75% | +230.59% | -0.98% | 🔒 Hold |
| ONTO | $333.76 | 65.5 | +17.8% | -3.11% | +27.66% | +59.34% | -9.35% | 🔒 Hold |
| 6779.T | $4660 | 65.9 | +18.4% | +24.03% | +113.08% | +262.40% | -6.99% | 🔒 Hold (foreign listing, 06-19) |
| IBIDF | $140.25 | 63.2 | +9.1% | +0.11% | +44.72% | +250.63% | -6.50% | 🔒 Hold (foreign listing, 06-19) |
| SIVEF | $10.12 | 61.9 | +16.5% | +7.55% | +60.63% | +736.36% | -11.56% | 🔍 Watch (too-young) |
| FORM | $149.55 | 60.2 | +14.9% | +1.12% | +27.60% | +57.26% | -6.00% | 🔒 Hold |
| TSEM | $286.74 | 59.7 | +8.5% | +3.64% | +2.77% | +72.65% | -11.34% | 🔒 Hold |
| MTSI | $391.41 | 59.0 | +4.0% | -1.52% | +2.88% | +74.32% | -12.07% | 🔒 Hold |
| AEHR | $115.30 | 58.9 | +11.3% | -4.93% | +42.10% | +205.35% | -8.94% | 🔒 Hold |
| GLW | $194.92 | 55.9 | +5.1% | +3.91% | +11.03% | +46.69% | -7.97% | 🔒 Hold |
| JBL | $371.88 | 54.5 | +0.7% | -4.38% | +11.72% | +40.20% | -13.30% | 🔒 Hold |
| SMTC | $158.23 | 54.1 | -0.8% | -9.95% | +7.98% | +101.95% | -8.89% | 🔍 Watch |
| IQEPF | $0.71 | 54.1 | +8.7% | -8.00% | +57.78% | +129.03% | -27.60% | 🔍 Watch (foreign listing, 06-17) |
| LPK.DE | $22.80 | 53.9 | +1.4% | +13.30% | +4.59% | +241.83% | -26.33% | 🔍 Watch (foreign listing, 06-15) |
| COHR | $389.57 | 53.2 | +1.3% | -3.15% | +10.16% | +41.37% | -11.46% | 🔒 Hold |
| OPTX | $11.38 | 51.5 | -1.5% | -0.24% | +73.74% | +47.03% | -23.73% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
| FLTCF | $4.89 | 51.4 | +0.7% | +10.11% | -22.13% | +117.33% | -42.47% | 🔍 Watch (foreign listing, 06-19) |
| ALMU | $24.19 | 51.0 | -0.1% | -4.32% | +10.31% | +72.05% | -23.91% | 🔍 Watch |
| POET | $12.65 | 50.5 | -4.3% | +26.45% | -10.98% | +92.54% | -39.24% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
| HIMX | $18.11 | 49.2 | -9.1% | +1.34% | -6.12% | +101.45% | -27.82% | 🔍 Watch |
| LITE | $850.00 | 47.9 | -6.0% | +10.91% | -4.50% | +34.76% | -21.71% | 🔍 Watch |
| SOI.PA | $138.80 | 47.9 | -10.7% | -10.87% | -1.03% | +119.76% | -35.84% | 🔍 Watch (foreign listing, 06-15) |
| CLS | $372.55 | 47.3 | -4.2% | -7.07% | +9.85% | +31.04% | -21.41% | 🔍 Watch |
| KOPN | $4.86 | 47.5 | -9.6% | +1.25% | -1.62% | +135.92% | -26.48% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 2d stale) |
| AAOI | $161.85 | 46.5 | -9.2% | -14.11% | -5.53% | +58.80% | -30.74% | 🔍 Watch |
| ALRIB.PA | $12.98 | 45.6 | -10.3% | -7.57% | +8.53% | +127.72% | -29.84% | 🔍 Watch (foreign listing, 06-19) |
| VIAV | $47.17 | 45.5 | -5.8% | -15.70% | -3.70% | +37.72% | -17.09% | 🔍 Watch |
| AXTI | $84.57 | 43.3 | -18.6% | -23.74% | -25.08% | +45.58% | -40.93% | 🔍 Watch |
| LWLG | $9.78 | 42.9 | -10.0% | -3.66% | -25.74% | +38.92% | -49.81% | 🔍 Watch |
| FN | $584.38 | 41.8 | -9.6% | -9.97% | -13.78% | +8.07% | -23.39% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 2d stale) |
| CIEN | $428.22 | 36.3 ↓ | -17.1% | -5.13% | -20.98% | +3.79% | -32.83% | 🔍 Watch |
| PLAB | $30.43 | 35.3 ↓ | -18.2% | +6.09% | -35.98% | -12.25% | -45.66% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
Tier Analysis
Leaders / Hold (RSI 58-71, monster trends near highs): SNDK (RSI 70.8, +183% 3M, +256% vs SMA200), ALAB (RSI 69.8, +231% 3M, -0.98% from high), ONTO (RSI 65.5, +27.7% 30D), 6779.T (RSI 65.9, +262% 3M, foreign), IBIDF (RSI 63.2, +251% 3M, foreign), FORM (RSI 60.2, +57% 3M), AEHR (RSI 58.9, +205% 3M), TSEM (RSI 59.7, +100% vs SMA200), MTSI (RSI 59.0, +74% 3M). These are the AI-packaging/test/substrate enablers running hard — hold, extended to chase fresh.
Constructive / Hold (RSI 53-56): GLW (RSI 55.9, +47% 3M), JBL (RSI 54.5, +40% 3M), COHR (RSI 53.2, +41% 3M, strong-up regime), SMTC (RSI 54.1, +102% 3M but -9.95% 7D pullback). Holding uptrends but losing some near-term momentum.
Pullback / Watch (RSI 42-52): LITE (RSI 47.9, +10.9% 7D bounce but -6% vs SMA20), AAOI (RSI 46.5, -14.1% 7D, -31% from high), VIAV (RSI 45.5, -15.7% 7D), FN (RSI 41.8, -13.8% 30D, weak-down), AXTI (RSI 43.3, -23.7% 7D, -25% 30D, sharp drop), LWLG (RSI 42.9, -25.7% 30D, -50% from high), POET (RSI 50.5, +26.5% 7D bounce off -39% from high), HIMX (RSI 49.2, +101% 3M but pulling back). Mid-RSI digestion of large 3M gains.
Deepest Pullbacks / Watch (RSI 35-36): CIEN (RSI 36.3, -21% 30D, -33% from high, -17.1% vs SMA20 — the headline optical-networking name in correction), PLAB (RSI 35.3, -36% 30D, -46% from high, downtrend — the photomask name breaking down). Lowest RSIs in the scan but neither is oversold (<30); both still above SMA200, so pullback not breakdown — watch for floor.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIEN | $428.22 | 36.3 ↓ | -20.98% | Deepest pullback; -33% from high, -17% vs SMA20 but still +38% vs SMA200; watch for RSI <30 capitulation or reclaim of SMA20 |
| PLAB | $30.43 | 35.3 ↓ | -35.98% | Photomask breakdown, -46% from high, downtrend regime; needs trend turn, not a value buy (06-16, 2d stale) |
| AAOI | $161.85 | 46.5 | -5.53% | -14% 7D into pullback; +59% 3M intact, golden cross; watch for stabilization near SMA50 ($170) |
| LITE | $850.00 | 47.9 | -4.50% | +10.9% 7D bounce, still -6% vs SMA20; pullback regime, thesis intact; watch for SMA20 reclaim ($905) |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | SNDK, ALAB, ONTO, FORM, AEHR, TSEM, MTSI, 6779.T, IBIDF | Monster trends, near highs — hold, extended to chase |
| 🔒 HOLD | GLW, JBL, COHR | Constructive uptrends, RSI 53-56 |
| 🔍 WATCH | LITE, AAOI, VIAV, FN, SMTC, HIMX, POET, SOI.PA, SIVEF, IQEPF | Mid-RSI pullbacks of strong 3M trends; need trend confirmation |
| 🔍 WATCH | CIEN, PLAB, AXTI, LWLG | Deepest pullbacks/breakdowns; watch for floors, no buy yet |
| ⚠️ AVOID | NGKIF | RSI 83 overbought, -1.2% from high — don't chase (foreign) |
What Changed
- Packaging/test/substrate layer leads — ALAB (+231% 3M), SNDK (+183%), 6779.T (+262%), IBIDF (+251%), AEHR (+205%) all near 52wk highs; the picks-and-shovels of AI-optics outperforming the modules
- CIEN corrected hard — RSI 36.3, -21% 30D, -33% from high, -17% vs SMA20; the headline optical-networking name is the weakest large-cap in the book
- PLAB photomask breakdown — RSI 35.3, -36% 30D, -46% from high, downtrend regime
- Transceiver/laser names pulling back — AAOI (-14% 7D), VIAV (-15.7% 7D), AXTI (-23.7% 7D), FN (-13.8% 30D); module layer digesting
- NGKIF overbought — RSI 83, only -1.2% from high; lone extreme in the scan (foreign)
- No US oversold — lowest US RSI is PLAB 35.3 / CIEN 36.3; all pullbacks are mid-RSI digestion, not capitulation
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Enabler layer (ALAB/SNDK/ONTO/FORM/AEHR/6779.T) leads while modules (CIEN/AAOI/FN) correct | Picks-and-shovels of AI-optics is the stronger trade than the transceiver names themselves |
| Foreign feeders (IBIDF +251%, SIVEF +736%, 6779.T +262% 3M) running with the leaders | CPO supply-chain strength is global, not just US-listed — but these trade on other calendars |
| CIEN/PLAB lowest RSI but still above SMA200 | Pullback not breakdown; deepest names not yet oversold — patience, watch for floor |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Buying CIEN/PLAB on "lowest RSI" alone | Neither is <30; PLAB is downtrend regime; oversold-looking ≠ floor confirmed |
| Chasing NGKIF at RSI 83 | Only -1.2% from high, RSI 83 extreme — overbought, asymmetric entry risk (foreign) |
Open Questions
Related
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