Optical Supply Chain Scan
Optical Supply Chain Scan
The optical supply-chain complex is uniformly above SMA200 in golden crosses — but massively extended above VWAP with most names 50–110% over their lifetime anchors. SNDK leads with a staggering +216% above VWAP; ALAB and IBIDF both sit >109% above; the whole sector is in a post-breakout digestion phase. GLW is the week's outperformer (+14% 7D, RSI 61, +73% vs VWAP) on fiber/data-center demand; LITE and AAOI are the deepest pullbacks in the uptrend cluster. FN and LWLG are the only names genuinely near VWAP/support. PLAB, FLTCF, and POET are the weak outliers within an otherwise intact uptrend book.
Latest bar 2026-06-26. FROTH READ: most names 50–216% above VWAP — the digestion has NOT yet reached this sector. Do not chase extended names; wait for flag setups toward SMA20.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟠 Extended but intact — golden crosses across the board, nearly all above SMA200; but 50–216% above VWAP = no new entries at current prices |
| Key insight | SNDK (+216% vs VWAP), ALAB/IBIDF (+109%), AEHR (+88%), ONTO (+80%), NGKIF RSI 78.9 — sector is parabolic/extended; GLW is the week's runner; FN (-23.6% 30D, +7% vs VWAP) is the cleanest pullback entry candidate in a broken-to-recovering setup |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | vs SMA20 | vs VWAP% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLW | $221.05 | 61.3 | strong-up | +14.15% | +15.98% | +15.9% | +72.7% | 🟠 Extended |
| ALAB | $391.74 | 60.1 | strong-up | -6.71% | +20.41% | +6.2% | +109.7% | ⚠️ Very Extended |
| SNDK | $2090.71 | 57.8 | strong-up | +0.92% | +31.50% | +10.2% | +216.4% | ⚠️ Extreme Extension |
| IBIDF | $146.66 | 65.9 | strong-up | n/a | +7.66% | +12.4% | +109.3% | ⚠️ Very Extended |
| NGKIF | $48.12 | 78.9 | strong-up | n/a | +27.30% | +15.1% | +81.9% | 🔴 Overbought |
| ONTO | $323.92 | 56.6 | strong-up | +0.57% | +21.37% | +8.0% | +80.5% | 🟠 Extended |
| AEHR | $91.81 | 45.1 | weak-down | -12.91% | -11.57% | -11.4% | +88.5% | 🟡 Pullback in uptrend |
| OPTX | $10.56 | 47.9 | strong-up | -16.04% | -11.41% | -10.9% | +91.5% | 🟡 Pullback |
| COHR | $380.56 | 50.0 | strong-up | +0.32% | +0.10% | -2.2% | +69.5% | 🟡 Neutral |
| GLW | $221.05 | 61.3 | strong-up | +14.15% | +15.98% | +15.9% | +72.7% | 🟠 Extended |
| CIEN | $479.50 | 47.9 | weak-down | +10.65% | -17.62% | -1.7% | +71.6% | 🟡 Recovery bounce |
| TSEM | $249.91 | 46.8 | strong-up | -8.63% | -10.04% | -5.3% | +70.1% | 🟡 Pullback |
| MTSI | $369.18 | 50.5 | strong-up | -0.62% | -7.86% | -1.0% | +63.3% | 🟡 Pullback |
| SMTC | $149.75 | 48.3 | strong-up | -3.56% | -4.74% | -6.6% | +59.7% | 🟡 Pullback |
| VIAV | $47.63 | 46.5 | weak-down | +2.00% | -10.23% | -4.6% | +56.3% | 🟡 Pullback |
| LITE | $816.98 | 44.1 | weak-down | +3.12% | -9.46% | -7.8% | +56.3% | 🟡 Pullback |
| 6779.T | ¥3890 | 52.3 | strong-up | -13.30% | +36.97% | -7.0% | +61.2% | 🟡 Pullback |
| JBL | $358.60 | 47.0 | strong-up | +1.14% | -3.44% | -3.2% | +40.8% | 🟡 Pullback in uptrend |
| FORM | $130.74 | 47.8 | weak-down | -1.13% | -1.72% | -2.0% | +49.8% | 🟡 Pullback |
| AAOI | $135.69 | 40.6 | weak-down | -12.38% | -24.55% | -20.6% | +44.1% | 🟡 Deep pullback |
| CLS | $337.53 | 40.6 | weak-down | -1.61% | -5.64% | -13.1% | +20.1% | 🟡 Pullback |
| AXTI | $70.15 | 39.1 | weak-down | -19.62% | -42.86% | -23.1% | +30.1% | 🔍 Sharp pull, above SMA200 |
| LPTH | $13.13 | 44.1 | weak-down | -4.55% | -25.44% | -12.0% | +15.8% | 🔍 Watch |
| ALMU | $20.02 | 41.3 | weak-down | -10.37% | -13.60% | -15.6% | +3.3% | 🔍 Near VWAP |
| FN | $524.79 | 36.5 | weak-down | -3.27% | -23.60% | -14.4% | +7.2% | 🔍 Near VWAP, deep pull |
| POET | $9.44 | 39.8 | weak-down | -15.49% | -28.92% | -22.7% | -6.2% | 🔍 Watch (thesis intact) |
| IQEPF | $0.60 | 46.5 | weak-down | -13.33% | -15.49% | -9.0% | +7.3% | 🔍 Near VWAP |
| PLAB | $30.69 | 39.1 | down | -0.81% | -42.65% | -2.5% | -6.8% | ❌ Avoid (collapse) |
| LWLG | $7.89 | 35.3 | weak-down | -14.84% | -31.98% | -21.1% | -6.9% | ❌ Avoid |
| FLTCF | $3.77 | 40.3 | weak-down | -16.87% | -33.86% | -19.4% | -23.9% | ❌ Avoid |
Tier Analysis
EXTREME EXTENSION — Do Not Chase (>80% above VWAP): SNDK ($2090.71, RSI 57.8, +216% vs VWAP, +214.6% vs SMA200) — the AI-memory compounder that has re-rated far beyond any historical volume-weighted price; the poc at $666 shows where real volume was done. IBIDF ($146.66, RSI 65.9, +198% vs SMA200, +109% vs VWAP) — very illiquid OTC (zero volume today), do not trade. ALAB ($391.74, RSI 60.1, +104.7% vs SMA200, +110% vs VWAP, -6.7% 7D) — extended but actively pulling back toward SMA20. NGKIF (RSI 78.9, +81.9% vs VWAP, near 52wkHigh, illiquid) — overbought signal.
EXTENDED / HOLD (50–80% above VWAP, strong-up or golden cross): ONTO (+80% vs VWAP, RSI 56.6), AEHR (+88% vs VWAP, RSI 45.1, -12.9% 7D pulling back), OPTX (+91.5% vs VWAP, RSI 47.9, -16% 7D), COHR (+69.5% vs VWAP, RSI 50), GLW (+72.7% vs VWAP, RSI 61.3, ran +14% this week), CIEN (+71.6% vs VWAP, RSI 47.9, +10.65% bounce off -17.6% 30D), TSEM (+70.1% vs VWAP, RSI 46.8), MTSI (+63.3% vs VWAP, RSI 50.5), SMTC (+59.7% vs VWAP, RSI 48.3), VIAV (+56.3% vs VWAP, RSI 46.5), LITE (+56.3% vs VWAP, RSI 44.1). All hold-grade in confirmed uptrends. Do not add at these levels without a flag-to-SMA20 setup.
BUYABLE PULLBACKS in Uptrend (30–50% above VWAP, approaching SMA20): JBL (+40.8% vs VWAP, RSI 47, -3.2% vs SMA20, strong-up, -3.4% 30D), FORM (+49.8% vs VWAP, RSI 47.8, -2% vs SMA20), AAOI (+44.1% vs VWAP, RSI 40.6, -24.55% 30D — sharpest pull in this tier, still above SMA200). These are approaching SMA20 but not yet at it.
NEAR VWAP / DEEP PULLBACK — Watchlist: FN ($524.79, RSI 36.5, +7.2% vs VWAP, -23.6% 30D, -14.4% vs SMA20 — the deepest pullback in the cluster; above SMA200 $516 barely, near support $500; high relVolume 6.95x today), AXTI ($70.15, RSI 39.1, -42.9% 30D but +72.3% vs SMA200, +30% vs VWAP — needs base), LPTH (+15.8% vs VWAP, RSI 44.1, -25.4% 30D), ALMU (+3.3% vs VWAP, RSI 41.3, -13.6% 30D), POET (-6.2% vs VWAP, RSI 39.8, thesisState intact, -28.9% 30D — below VWAP briefly, watch support $7.75), IQEPF (+7.3% vs VWAP, RSI 46.5, -15.5% 30D).
AVOID (below VWAP or structural breakdown): PLAB (-6.8% vs VWAP, RSI 39.1, -42.65% 30D, regime: collapse — photomask supplier structural issues), LWLG (-6.9% vs VWAP, RSI 35.3, -32% 30D), FLTCF (-23.9% vs VWAP, RSI 40.3, -33.9% 30D, illiquid).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs VWAP | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FN | $524.79 | 36.5 | +7.2% | Deepest pullback in the group; -23.6% 30D, barely above SMA200 ($516), near support $500. Watch for volume dry-up at $500 before entry — today's relVolume 6.95x suggests flush-out |
| AAOI | $135.69 | 40.6 | +44.1% | -24.5% 30D pullback, above SMA200 ($80). The AI-transceiver story intact; SMA20 reclaim at $170 is the confirmation — too early now |
| ALAB | $391.74 | 60.1 | +109.7% | The flag-former: -6.7% 7D, above SMA20, approaching. Add on a pullback to SMA20 ($369) if RSI comes in to 50-55 |
| COHR | $380.56 | 50.0 | +69.5% | Neutral RSI, -2.2% vs SMA20 — the most tempting add; strong-up, above all SMAs, watch SMA20 ($389) reclaim |
| POET | $9.44 | 39.8 | -6.2% | thesisState intact, -28.9% 30D — briefly below VWAP. Watch support $7.75; do not buy until a close above VWAP ($10.06) |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | SNDK, ALAB, IBIDF, NGKIF, ONTO, GLW, COHR, CIEN, TSEM, MTSI, SMTC | Confirmed uptrends, above SMA200; but all >50% above VWAP — hold, do not add |
| ⚠️ AVOID (extended) | SNDK (+216% vs VWAP), ALAB/IBIDF (+109%), AEHR/OPTX/ONTO (+80-92%) | Parabolic extensions — do not chase |
| 🔍 WATCH | FN, AAOI, AEHR, POET, LPTH | Pullbacks within uptrends; need base or SMA20 reclaim before acting |
| 🔍 ACCUMULATE SLOWLY | COHR, JBL, FORM | RSI 47-50, near SMA20, strong-up — the least-extended names with uptrend intact |
| ❌ AVOID (structural) | PLAB, LWLG, FLTCF | Below VWAP, collapse/weak regimes — do not knife-catch |
What Changed This Week
- GLW ran +14.15% this week — RSI 61.3, +15.9% vs SMA20, +72.7% vs VWAP. Corning fiber/data-center demand catalyst. Now the week's top performer in the optical complex
- AXTI cratered -19.62% 7D, -42.86% 30D — sharp derating; still above SMA200 ($40.72) but well below SMA50; possible catalyst needed to reverse
- CIEN bounced +10.65% 7D after -17.62% 30D — recovery off the lows; RSI 47.9, still -7.8% vs SMA50
- SIVEF -29.69% 7D — highly illiquid OTC; extreme move, thin float
- SNDK held +31.5% 30D — the memory/AI compounder consolidating; +216% above VWAP is the extreme froth read
- PLAB collapse regime — -42.65% 30D continues; photomask supplier diverging from the rest of the sector
- Most names in pullback/digest mode — the sector ran hard in 3M (+37-248% for leaders); now pulling back 5-25% from highs while holding above SMA200; digestion, not breakdown
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| SNDK +216% above VWAP — the highest VWAP extension in the optical complex | This is a regime-level re-rating, not a tradeable edge. The entire volume history was done at 1/3 today's price; the only "entry" is a significant pullback — do not chase |
| GLW ran +14% in one week on fiber/AI datacenters, now +73% above VWAP | Corning is the liquid, large-cap optical play that moved last. If the sector corrects, GLW corrects; if it keeps running, GLW is the safest hold due to liquidity |
| FN -23.6% 30D, +7.2% vs VWAP with relVolume 6.95x today | High-volume flush near VWAP in a golden-cross name — the classic pre-entry signature. Watch for follow-through close above SMA20 |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Buying optical names because RSI pulled to 40-45 | 40-45 RSI but +50-110% above VWAP is not "cheap" — the VWAP anchors where real volume was done, and most of this complex traded at 1/2 or 1/3 current price |
| Ignoring PLAB divergence | PLAB (photomasks) in collapse while ONTO/FORM (inspection/test) run — the divergence within the supply chain is real; pick the right layer |
Open Questions
- Does GLW's +14% 7D move represent a new sustainable catalyst (fiber demand) or a short-squeeze in a liquid name?
- AXTI -42.9% 30D: is the AXT Inc. (substrate supplier) thesis broken, or is this a buyable dislocation? (needs event verify — earnings/guidance?)
- PLAB in collapse while peers run — is the photomask layer structurally disadvantaged, or is this company-specific?
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.