Optical Supply Chain Scan
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Optical Supply Chain Scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 50 rows · screens, not recommendations
Cohort has broadly cooled from May's blow-off: NGKIF hit a new RSI extreme (83), SNDK ripped to $1992 (+177% 3M), but CIEN cratered -18% 30D, SOI.PA gave back -11% 7D, and PLAB remains deep in the downtrend — the supercycle bifurcates between momentum survivors and breakdown names.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟠 Bifurcated — a few parabolic survivors, broad mid-cohort consolidation, two confirmed breakdowns |
| Extreme overbought | NGKIF (RSI 83, +7.1% above SMA20), SNDK (RSI 66.5, +17.7% above SMA20, $1992, +177% 3M) |
| Best risk/reward | CIEN (RSI 36.2, -18.6% below SMA20 — oversold pullback within +16% 3M trend), FN (RSI 41.8, -10.2% below SMA20) |
| Confirmed breakdown | PLAB (RSI 35.3, trend: down, -36% 30D, -45.7% from 52wk high) |
| Key insight | SIVEF +626% 3M, IBIDF +251% 3M — two micro-cap stealth movers leading the cohort; CIEN's -32.5% from 52wk high is a notable reset on a name that was +64% 3M in May |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE | $875.36 | 47.9 | -3.2% | +10.91% | -1.09% | 🔍 Watch |
| COHR | $382.81 | 52.0 | +0.3% | +10.57% | +5.51% | 🔒 Hold |
| CIEN | $430.30 | 36.2 | -18.6% | +3.96% | -17.96% | 📈 Accumulate |
| ALAB | $361.71 | 61.7 | +8.1% | +9.06% | +67.78% | 🔒 Hold |
| SMTC | $161.59 | 56.5 | +2.4% | +10.33% | +22.06% | 🔒 Hold |
| TSEM | $268.53 | 55.3 | +2.3% | +21.77% | +8.25% | 🔒 Hold |
| LWLG | $9.39 | 40.2 | -15.2% | +5.01% | -18.98% | 🔍 Watch |
| SIVEF | $9.95 | 62.3 | +21.3% | +11.63% | +98.21% | ⚠️ Overbought |
| MTSI | $368.32 | 52.7 | -1.8% | +6.68% | +3.39% | 🔒 Hold |
| VIAV | $50.10 | 50.7 | -0.1% | +12.06% | +0.70% | 📈 Accumulate |
| GLW | $177.42 | 48.1 | -4.0% | +3.84% | -0.48% | 📈 Accumulate |
| FN | $588.03 | 41.8 | -10.2% | +4.87% | -16.03% | 📈 Accumulate |
| CLS | $382.01 | 49.3 | -0.9% | +7.51% | +11.48% | 🔒 Hold |
| JBL | $375.51 | 56.3 | +2.6% | +5.96% | +10.86% | 🔒 Hold |
| PLAB | $30.43 | 35.3 | -18.2% | +6.09% | -35.98% | ❌ Don't Buy |
| ONTO | $316.15 | 61.4 | +14.4% | +18.95% | +24.21% | ⚠️ Caution |
| FORM | $140.24 | 55.8 | +9.7% | +21.39% | +19.43% | 🔒 Hold |
| AXTI | $93.04 | 47.0 | -12.2% | +26.53% | -12.13% | 🔍 Watch |
| IQEPF | $0.74 | 56.0 | +15.5% | +35.09% | +39.62% | ⚠️ Caution |
| LPTH | $14.33 | 48.2 | -7.9% | +4.69% | +15.19% | 🔒 Hold |
| AAOI | $170.81 | 48.9 | -4.3% | +5.60% | -1.41% | 📈 Accumulate |
| SOI.PA | $138.80 | 47.9 | -10.7% | -10.87% | -1.03% | 🔍 Watch |
| SNDK | $1991.55 | 66.5 | +17.7% | +21.00% | +49.40% | ⚠️ Overbought |
| NGKIF | $41.50 | 83.0 ↑ | +7.1% | — | +10.02% | ⚠️ Overbought |
| ALRIB.PA | $14.48 | 54.2 | +0.3% | +6.33% | +16.59% | 🔒 Hold |
| POET | $12.65 | 50.5 | -4.3% | +26.45% | -10.98% | 🔍 Watch |
| OPTX | $11.38 | 51.5 | -1.5% | -0.24% | +73.74% | 🔍 Watch |
| ALMU | $23.62 | 49.8 | -1.2% | +8.17% | +13.78% | 🔒 Hold |
| LPK.DE | $22.80 | 53.9 | +1.4% | +13.30% | +4.59% | 🔒 Hold |
| 6779.T | $3900 | 57.5 | +8.2% | -11.45% | +66.52% | 🔒 Hold |
| AEHR | $104.83 | 53.7 | +4.4% | +18.06% | +25.44% | 🔒 Hold |
| IBIDF | $140.25 | 63.2 | +14.3% | +0.11% | +41.77% | ⚠️ Caution |
| FLTCF | $4.97 | 52.1 | -1.2% | -10.60% | -14.60% | 🔍 Watch |
Tier Analysis
RSI > 70 — Extreme Overbought (Do Not Chase)
- NGKIF (RSI 83, $41.50, +10% 30D, near 52wk high -1.2%) — NGK Insulators. New cohort extreme. Avoid fresh entries.
RSI 40–70 — Momentum / Consolidation
- SNDK (RSI 66.5, +17.7% above SMA20, $1992, +177% 3M) — parabola continues but extended. Hold only.
- SIVEF (RSI 62.3, +21.3% above SMA20, +98% 30D, +626% 3M) — Sivers Semiconductors. Micro-cap stealth mover; too extended to chase.
- IBIDF (RSI 63.2, +14.3% above SMA20, +42% 30D, +251% 3M) — Ibiden (substrate). Japan-listed. Extended.
- ALAB (RSI 61.7, +8.1% above SMA20, +68% 30D) — cooled meaningfully from May's RSI 81. Now back to accumulate zone for patient holders.
- ONTO (RSI 61.4, +14.4% above SMA20, +24% 30D) — Onto Innovation recovered sharply; extended short-term.
- SMTC (RSI 56.5), JBL (RSI 56.3), FORM (RSI 55.8), TSEM (RSI 55.3) — mid-strength holds.
- COHR (RSI 52.0), CLS (RSI 49.3), ALMU (RSI 49.8), AAOI (RSI 48.9), LPTH (RSI 48.2), GLW (RSI 48.1) — consolidating, thesis intact.
RSI 25–40 — Oversold / Watch
- CIEN (RSI 36.2, -18.6% below SMA20, -18% 30D, -32.5% from 52wk high) — Ciena had the sharpest reset in the cohort; was RSI 57.7 in May. Accumulate zone if thesis holds (AI networking demand).
- PLAB (RSI 35.3, trend: down, -36% 30D, -45.7% from 52wk high) — remains broken; no base formed.
- LWLG (RSI 40.2, -15.2% below SMA20, -19% 30D) — Lightwave Logic still weak-down. Speculative micro-cap trap.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIEN | $430.30 | $410–445 | 36.2 | -17.96% | Sharpest oversold reset in cohort; -18.6% below SMA20; +16% 3M intact; AI networking thesis holds |
| FN | $588.03 | $570–605 | 41.8 | -16.03% | -10.2% below SMA20; Fabrinet optical manufacturing; wait for stabilization |
| AXTI | $93.04 | $88–100 | 47.0 | -12.13% | -12.2% below SMA20; +110% 3M momentum intact; elevated volatility (GaAs substrates) |
| AAOI | $170.81 | $160–178 | 48.9 | -1.41% | -4.3% below SMA20; Applied Optoelectronics; -27% from 52wk high; +98% 3M |
| GLW | $177.42 | $172–183 | 48.1 | -0.48% | -4.0% below SMA20; Corning fiber demand; dividend payer; defensive optical floor |
| VIAV | $50.10 | $48–52 | 50.7 | +0.70% | Flat at SMA20; Viavi solutions; +62% 3M intact |
| ALAB | $361.71 | $345–370 | 61.7 | +67.78% | Cooled from RSI 81 in May to 61.7; PCIe/CXL silicon; still strong-up; trim not add |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ⚠️ OVERBOUGHT | NGKIF (RSI 83), SNDK (RSI 67), SIVEF (+626% 3M), IBIDF (+251% 3M) | Extreme readings; do not initiate; set trailing stops if holding |
| 🔒 HOLD | ALAB, SMTC, TSEM, COHR, JBL, CLS, FORM, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE, 6779.T, AEHR, ALMU, LPTH, MTSI | Strong-up trend intact; thesis working |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | CIEN, FN, GLW, VIAV, AAOI | Cooled into entry zones within confirmed uptrends |
| 🔍 WATCH | AXTI, SOI.PA, LWLG, POET, OPTX, FLTCF, LITE | Consolidating or reversing; monitor before entry |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | PLAB | Trend: down; -36% 30D; no base; falling knife |
What Changed (vs May 29 scan)
- NGKIF RSI spiked to 83 — was 76.6 in May. New cohort extreme; near 52wk high.
- SNDK pushed to $1992 — was $1695 in May (+17.5% further). +177% 3M, RSI 66.5 (cooled from 72.2).
- CIEN crashed -18% 30D — was RSI 57.7, +10% 30D in May. Now RSI 36.2, -18.6% below SMA20. Biggest reset in the cohort; created an accumulate zone.
- SOI.PA gave back -11% 7D — was RSI 61.5, +57% 30D in May. Now RSI 47.9, -10.7% below SMA20. Parabola stalled.
- ONTO recovered sharply — was RSI 44.8, weak-down in May. Now RSI 61.4, +24% 30D, strong-up. Trend reversal.
- FORM recovered — was RSI 45.2, weak-down in May. Now RSI 55.8, strong-up, +19% 30D.
- PLAB still broken — RSI 35.3 (was 28.9); -36% 30D. No recovery.
- IBIDF added — Ibiden substrate, +251% 3M, RSI 63.2. New cohort participant.
- ALAB cooled from blow-off — RSI 80.8→61.7; still +68% 30D; better risk/reward than May.
Related
10 events DateTypeEvent
Jun 20 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan Jun 25 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan Jul 7 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan May 29 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan Jul 11 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan Jun 26 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan Jul 17 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan Jul 25 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan Jun 20 ScanMonster Scan Jul 28 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan No direct external sources are attached to this read.