Optical Supply Chain Scan
Scan
Optical Supply Chain Scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 48 rows · screens, not recommendations ported fromresearch/classic/scans/2026-05-29-optical-supply-chain.md
The parabola has stratified: SNDK/ALAB/AXTI/SOI.PA/ALRIB.PA/6779.T remain in blow-off, PLAB crashed -34% in a week (photomask miss), and LWLG reversed hard — the supercycle is intact but divergence is widening within the cohort.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟠 Stratified — leaders still parabolic, pockets of sharp reversal emerging |
| Blow-off leaders | SNDK (RSI 72, +174% 3M, $1695), ALAB (RSI 81, +184% 3M, +76% 30D), AXTI (+123% 3M), SOI.PA (+312% 3M, +57% 30D), ALRIB.PA (+151% 3M), 6779.T (RSI 71, +133% 3M) |
| Sharp reversals | PLAB (RSI 29, -34% 7D — photomask shock), LWLG (-13% 7D, -21% 30D, trend turned weak-down), LITE (-9% 7D, trend weak-down) |
| Key insight | ALAB RSI now 80.8 — the highest in the cohort, +36.7% above SMA20; PLAB flash-crash -34% 7D is the first cohort breakdown and a warning on stretched names. SNDK confirmed +174% 3M (prior tape said +146% — acceleration continues). |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE | $854.96 | 44.9 | -9.0% | -8.94% | -5.25% | +9.16% | -21.25% | weak-down | ⚠️ Caution |
| COHR | $361.47 | 52.4 | -0.6% | -0.41% | +13.06% | +20.93% | -12.48% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| CIEN | $580.23 | 57.7 | +2.8% | -1.96% | +9.98% | +64.03% | -4.19% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| ALAB | $342.85 | 80.8 ↑ | +36.7% | +12.77% | +76.06% | +184.40% | -3.29% | strong-up | ⚠️ Overbought |
| SMTC | $152.54 | 62.6 | +11.7% | +7.56% | +45.21% | +58.40% | -11.50% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| TSEM | $255.23 | 54.0 | +2.2% | -3.64% | +15.46% | +84.16% | -15.73% | strong-up | 📈 Accumulate |
| LWLG | $10.86 | 42.2 | -22.9% | -12.65% | -20.85% | +115.05% | -41.96% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| SIVEF | $7.33 | 60.2 | +19.0% | +1.32% | +52.07% | +435.04% | -23.17% | neutral | 🔍 Watch |
| MTSI | $364.64 | 56.4 | +1.5% | +2.30% | +29.48% | +41.04% | -12.95% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| VIAV | $48.56 | 48.9 | -6.0% | -3.35% | -7.33% | +37.37% | -19.64% | strong-up | 📈 Accumulate |
| GLW | $181.16 | 50.0 | -2.5% | -5.10% | +10.30% | +14.76% | -14.46% | strong-up | 📈 Accumulate |
| FN | $654.16 | 47.0 | -3.8% | -5.50% | -4.29% | +12.52% | -12.65% | strong-up | 📈 Accumulate |
| CLS | $385.39 | 55.9 | +2.6% | -1.41% | -5.91% | +44.35% | -11.40% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| JBL | $364.56 | 58.9 | +3.0% | +0.75% | +8.05% | +39.61% | -4.55% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| PLAB | $32.35 | 28.9 ↓ | -34.5% | -34.28% | -34.62% | -12.40% | -42.23% | down | 🔍 Research |
| ONTO | $258.24 | 44.8 | -5.9% | -1.89% | -12.48% | +18.43% | -18.28% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| FORM | $124.59 | 45.2 | -6.6% | -1.00% | -8.34% | +24.96% | -21.69% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| AXTI | $103.16 | 48.9 | -10.6% | -8.01% | +30.22% | +122.71% | -27.94% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| IQEPF | $0.63 | 50.5 | -0.4% | +3.23% | +1.61% | +53.66% | -33.37% | strong-up | 🔍 Watch |
| LPTH | $16.98 | 62.5 | +23.2% | +11.00% | +32.55% | +41.38% | -10.35% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| AAOI | $158.41 | 46.6 | -11.1% | -1.37% | -3.62% | +54.53% | -32.21% | strong-up | 📈 Accumulate |
| SOI.PA | $177.55 | 61.5 | +11.1% | +12.29% | +56.98% | +312.33% | -11.45% | strong-up | ⚠️ Overbought |
| SNDK | $1694.98 | 72.2 ↑ | +16.7% | +9.10% | +54.58% | +173.79% | -0.81% | strong-up | ⚠️ Overbought |
| NGKIF | $39.71 | 76.6 ↑ | +9.7% | — | +25.11% | +68.41% | -5.57% | strong-up | ⚠️ Overbought |
| ALRIB.PA | $15.70 | 63.7 | +13.6% | +11.97% | +33.96% | +151.20% | -15.14% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| POET | $12.29 | 50.5 | -4.0% | -11.18% | +72.61% | +77.86% | -40.94% | strong-up | 🔍 Watch |
| OPTX | $9.95 | 54.4 | +15.9% | +2.60% | +29.73% | +32.67% | -18.44% | strong-up | 🔍 Watch |
| ALMU | $21.58 | 48.1 | -12.4% | +1.18% | -7.34% | +12.16% | -32.12% | strong-up | 🔍 Watch |
| LPK.DE | $23.90 | 55.7 | +1.2% | +6.70% | — | — | -26.33% | strong-up | 🔍 Watch |
| 6779.T | $3195 | 71.4 ↑ | +33.5% | +25.34% | +69.05% | +132.56% | -12.47% | strong-up | ⚠️ Overbought |
| AEHR | $92.33 | 51.1 | -3.1% | +5.05% | +1.95% | +109.70% | -17.56% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
Tier Analysis
Tier 0 — Extreme Overbought (RSI >70) — Do Not Chase
- ALAB (RSI 80.8, +36.7% above SMA20, +184% 3M) — Astera Labs PCIe/CXL silicon. New extreme. Flash to overbought territory this week.
- NGKIF (RSI 76.6, +25% 30D) — NGK Insulators Japan ADR.
- SNDK (RSI 72.2, +174% 3M, $1695, near 52wk high) — Storage/NAND AI inference angle. Parabola continues.
- 6779.T (RSI 71.4, +33.5% above SMA20, +133% 3M) — Japan crystal/oscillator supplier.
- SOI.PA (RSI 61.5 but +312% 3M) — Soitec SOI wafers, French-listed. Extreme 3M move.
Tier 1 — Strong Momentum, Not Yet Overbought (RSI 55-70)
- SMTC (RSI 62.6, +45% 30D, +58% 3M) — Semtech, solid trend.
- LPTH (RSI 62.5, +23.2% above SMA20, +33% 30D) — LightPath, infrared optics.
- CIEN (RSI 57.7, +64% 3M) — Ciena networking, near 52wk high.
- JBL (RSI 58.9, +39% 3M) — Jabil contract manufacturing.
- CLS (RSI 55.9, +44% 3M) — Celestica, strong-up trend intact.
- TSEM (RSI 54.0, +84% 3M) — Cooldown from RSI 71 peak (prior tape). Best risk/reward entry window in the cohort.
- ALRIB.PA (RSI 63.7, +151% 3M) — Lumibird, French laser tech.
Tier 2 — Neutral/Watch (RSI 40-55)
- COHR (RSI 52.4) — Coherent, holding trend. Slight softening vs prior tape.
- MTSI (RSI 56.4, +29% 30D) — MACOM Technology, strong-up.
- GLW (RSI 50.0, -2.5% from SMA20) — Corning, consolidating.
- VIAV (RSI 48.9, -6% from SMA20) — Viavi, pulling back within strong-up.
- FN (RSI 47.0, -3.8% from SMA20) — Fabrinet, pulling back.
- AAOI (RSI 46.6, -11% from SMA20) — Applied Optoelectronics, wide drawdown, still strong-up trend.
- FORM (RSI 45.2, weak-down) — FormFactor, fading.
- ONTO (RSI 44.8, weak-down) — Onto Innovation, fading.
- ALMU (RSI 48.1, strong-up trend, -7% 30D) — Alumina Ltd.
- AXTI (RSI 48.9, -8% 7D but +123% 3M) — AXT Inc, pulling back within strong-up.
- LWLG (RSI 42.2, weak-down) — Lightwave Logic, -21% 30D reversal. Changed trend.
Tier 3 — Oversold / Breakdown
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAB | $32.35 | $28-34 | 28.9 ↓ | -34.62% | Oversold after crash; wait for base formation before entry — don't catch knife |
| TSEM | $255.23 | $245-260 | 54.0 | +15.46% | Cooled from RSI 71 (prior tape); +84% 3M thesis intact; best risk/reward in cohort |
| VIAV | $48.56 | $46-52 | 48.9 | -7.33% | Pulling back within strong-up; +37% 3M, -6% from SMA20 |
| FN | $654.16 | $630-665 | 47.0 | -4.29% | -3.8% from SMA20; Fabrinet optical manufacturing thesis holds |
| GLW | $181.16 | $175-185 | 50.0 | +10.30% | Corning fiber demand; -2.5% from SMA20, dividend payer |
| AXTI | $103.16 | $95-110 | 48.9 | +30.22% | Pulling back -10.6% from SMA20 within strong-up, +123% 3M; elevated volatility |
| AAOI | $158.41 | $150-165 | 46.6 | -3.62% | -11% from SMA20, +55% 3M — wait for stabilization |
| LWLG | $10.86 | wait | 42.2 | -20.85% | Trend turned weak-down; speculative only below $9 with clear base |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ⚠️ OVERBOUGHT | ALAB (RSI 81), NGKIF (RSI 77), SNDK (RSI 72), 6779.T (RSI 71), SOI.PA (+312% 3M) | Extreme readings — do not chase; set trailing stops if holding |
| 🔒 HOLD | CIEN, COHR, SMTC, ALRIB.PA, LPTH, CLS, JBL, MTSI, AEHR, AXTI | Strong-up trend intact; thesis working; no action needed |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | TSEM, VIAV, GLW, FN | Best risk/reward — cooling off from extremes within confirmed strong-up |
| 🔍 WATCH | PLAB, LWLG, ONTO, FORM, POET, SIVEF, OPTX | Breakdown or reversal signals; monitor before entry |
| ❌ DON'T CHASE | LITE | Trend turned weak-down from prior leader position; wait for stabilization |
What Changed (vs April 28 scan)
- ALAB RSI exploded to 80.8 — was 61 in April. The PCIe/CXL silicon play has gone parabolic and is now the hottest RSI in the cohort.
- PLAB crashed -34% in a week — was RSI 67, +33% 30D in April. Now RSI 29, -34% 7D. First significant cohort breakdown; thesis needs verification.
- SNDK accelerated — was +146% 3M in April, now +174% 3M. Price $952 → $1695. Parabola intact.
- TSEM cooled meaningfully — RSI dropped from 71 to 54; was the HOT Discord name in April. Now consolidating after +84% 3M; best entry opportunity in the cohort.
- LWLG reversed — was +75% 30D HOT in April, now -21% 30D and trend turned weak-down. Micro-cap volatility trap confirmed.
- LITE trend broke — former cohort leader now weak-down; -9% 7D, -5% 30D. Position review warranted.
- SOI.PA added +57% 30D on top of prior gains — now +312% 3M. Soitec is the stealth monster of the cohort.
- New names reporting: SIVEF, AEHR, POET, OPTX, ALMU, LPK.DE, 6779.T — all strong-up trend or near-highs.
Related
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Jun 16 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan Jun 20 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan May 29 ScanMonster Scan Jun 25 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan Jul 7 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan Jul 11 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan Jun 26 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan Jul 17 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan Jul 25 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan Jul 28 ScanOptical Supply Chain Scan No direct external sources are attached to this read.