Optical Supply Chain Scan
Optical Supply Chain Scan
The AI-optics complex stays sharply bifurcated, and the split widened: the CPO/packaging/substrate enablers (SNDK RSI 65.1 +276% 3M, ALAB RSI 62.6 +255% 3M, ONTO RSI 63.2 +68% 3M, IBIDF RSI 65.9 +267% 3M, 6779.T strong-up +211% 3M, GLW RSI 63.6 +67% 3M, only -2.3% from high) carry the trend, while the transceiver/module/laser/substrate-feeder names are deep in pullback — AXTI (RSI 38.7, -47% 30D, -51% from high), SOI.PA (RSI 39.2, -39% 30D), AAOI (RSI 40.9, -22% 30D), FN (RSI 40.6, weak-down -17% 30D), HIMX (RSI 39.7, -29% 30D), ALRIB.PA (RSI 37.5), KOPN (RSI 36.3), LWLG (RSI 36.1). NGKIF at RSI 75 is the lone overbought name. No name is sub-30; deepest pullbacks (AXTI/SOI.PA/AAOI/FN) all sit above SMA200 — these are pullbacks-of-strong-trends, not breakdowns, except PLAB which is in collapse regime.
Latest bar Thursday 2026-06-25. SOI.PA / NGKIF at 06-24 (foreign listing, normal calendar offset). ENTRY-HUNT framing: choppy tape, mega-cap drawdown — tag each name.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Bifurcated and widening — packaging/test/substrate enablers (SNDK, ALAB, ONTO, IBIDF, GLW, 6779.T, FORM, MTSI) hold strong-up trends near highs; module/transceiver/feeder layer (AXTI, SOI.PA, AAOI, FN, HIMX, KOPN, LWLG) pulling back hard |
| Key insight | Picks-and-shovels (packaging/substrates/test) is leading the modules again. No oversold (<30) name; the deep pullbacks (AXTI -47% 30D, SOI.PA -39%) are above SMA200 = pullback not breakdown. PLAB is the one genuine breakdown (collapse regime, -3% vs SMA200). NGKIF RSI 75 lone overbought |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | vs SMA20 | 52wkHi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NGKIF | $46.10 | 75 ↑ | strong-up | — | +21.96% | +92.08% | +11.6% | -4.87% | ⚠️ Avoid (foreign 06-24, overbought) |
| SNDK | $2269.74 | 65.1 | strong-up | -11.28% | +42.79% | +276.30% | +21.3% | -3.60% | 🔒 Hold |
| IBIDF | $146.66 | 65.9 | strong-up | — | +5.16% | +266.65% | +12.4% | -4.44% | 🔒 Hold (foreign/thin) |
| GLW | $225.21 | 63.6 | strong-up | +11.93% | +14.98% | +66.69% | +19.4% | -2.30% | 🔒 Hold |
| ONTO | $344.24 | 63.2 | strong-up | -4.65% | +25.56% | +68.13% | +16.0% | -2.53% | 🔒 Hold |
| ALAB | $403.69 | 62.6 | strong-up | -1.31% | +26.66% | +255.33% | +10.0% | -8.46% | 🔒 Hold |
| FORM | $149.59 | 57.6 | strong-up | -6.10% | +9.61% | +49.07% | +12.2% | -5.98% | 🔒 Hold |
| JBL | $379.96 | 57.4 | strong-up | -0.59% | -0.08% | +43.88% | +2.4% | -11.42% | 🔒 Hold |
| MTSI | $389.48 | 56.8 | strong-up | -1.74% | -4.93% | +70.45% | +4.1% | -7.02% | 🔒 Hold |
| COHR | $402.05 | 54.2 | strong-up | -0.82% | +5.43% | +65.26% | +3.5% | -8.62% | 🔒 Hold |
| SMTC | $162.27 | 54.3 | strong-up | +1.33% | -1.33% | +118.81% | +0.7% | -8.50% | 🔒 Hold |
| 6779.T | $3925 | 53.0 | strong-up | -3.48% | +22.85% | +210.98% | -5.3% | -21.76% | 🔒 Hold (foreign) |
| TSEM | $269.88 | 52.0 | strong-up | -2.92% | -6.46% | +54.50% | +1.8% | -15.65% | 🔒 Hold |
| VIAV | $50.44 | 51.2 | strong-up | -0.08% | -6.23% | +46.46% | +1.0% | -16.53% | 🔍 Watch |
| LPK.DE | $22.90 | 49.2 | strong-up | +2.03% | -18.21% | +265.23% | -1.0% | -25.65% | 🔍 Watch (foreign) |
| AEHR | $99.35 | 49.1 | strong-up | -18.52% | -9.62% | +187.39% | -4.6% | -21.54% | 🔍 Watch (sharp 7D) |
| IQEPF | $0.64 | 49.0 | weak-down | -7.25% | -16.88% | +82.86% | -3.1% | -32.84% | 🔍 Watch (thin) |
| LITE | $861.97 | 47.9 | weak-down | -2.04% | -5.36% | +25.14% | -2.9% | -20.61% | 🔍 Watch |
| CIEN | $480.27 | 47.8 | weak-down | +7.32% | -20.27% | +23.78% | -2.4% | -24.66% | 🔍 Watch (7D bounce) |
| SIVEF | $7.36 | 45.7 | neutral | -18.91% | -21.70% | +503.28% | -16.9% | -27.91% | 🔍 Watch (too-young) |
| LPTH | $13.42 | 44.9 | weak-down | -11.19% | -17.36% | +22.11% | -11.5% | -29.14% | 🔍 Watch |
| CLS | $356.19 | 44.4 | weak-down | -5.26% | -3.95% | +30.29% | -8.4% | -24.86% | 🔍 Watch |
| OPTX | $9.86 | 44.3 | weak-down | -15.93% | -13.66% | +25.77% | -17.0% | -33.91% | 🔍 Watch |
| POET | $10.16 | 42.1 | weak-down | -9.79% | -23.90% | +85.06% | -18.1% | -51.17% | 🔍 Watch |
| PLAB | $32.79 | 42.7 | down | -4.29% | -39.77% | -17.53% | +3.7% | -41.44% | ❌ Avoid (collapse, <SMA200) |
| ALMU | $20.20 | 41.6 | weak-down | -12.95% | -17.08% | +57.81% | -15.4% | -36.46% | 🔍 Watch |
| AAOI | $137.98 | 40.9 | weak-down | -11.76% | -22.32% | +41.63% | -20.0% | -40.95% | 🔍 Watch |
| FN | $562.00 | 40.6 | weak-down | -1.13% | -17.45% | +2.24% | -9.4% | -24.96% | 🔍 Watch |
| FLTCF | $3.77 | 40.3 | weak-down | -16.87% | -33.86% | +49.01% | -19.4% | -55.65% | 🔍 Watch (thin) |
| HIMX | $15.24 | 39.7 | weak-down | -10.83% | -28.88% | +82.51% | -20.1% | -39.24% | 🔍 Watch |
| SOI.PA | $107.30 | 39.2 | weak-down | -13.51% | -39.14% | +96.74% | -23.7% | -44.01% | 🔍 Watch (foreign 06-24) |
| AXTI | $69.94 | 38.7 | weak-down | -20.23% | -47.25% | +19.54% | -25.3% | -51.14% | 🔍 Watch (sharp drop) |
| ALRIB.PA | $11.34 | 37.5 | weak-down | -15.56% | -26.65% | +99.65% | -16.6% | -38.70% | 🔍 Watch (foreign) |
| KOPN | $3.80 | 36.3 | weak-down | -19.50% | -32.26% | +96.89% | -26.1% | -42.51% | 🔍 Watch |
| LWLG | $8.16 | 36.1 | weak-down | -11.58% | -31.83% | +4.08% | -19.8% | -56.36% | 🔍 Watch |
Tier Analysis
CONFIRMED-LEADERS / Hold (RSI 53-66, strong-up near highs): SNDK (RSI 65.1, +276% 3M, +247% vs SMA200), ALAB (RSI 62.6, +255% 3M, -8.5% from high), ONTO (RSI 63.2, +26% 30D, -2.5% from high), GLW (RSI 63.6, +67% 3M, only -2.3% from high, +15% 30D), IBIDF (RSI 65.9, +267% 3M, foreign/thin), 6779.T (+211% 3M), FORM (RSI 57.6, +49% 3M), MTSI (RSI 56.8, +70% 3M), JBL (RSI 57.4, +44% 3M), COHR (RSI 54.2, +65% 3M), SMTC (RSI 54.3, +119% 3M), TSEM (RSI 52.0, +54% 3M). Packaging/test/substrate enablers — hold, extended to chase fresh.
Mid-RSI pullback / Watch (RSI 44-52): VIAV (RSI 51.2, +46% 3M, flat near SMA20), LPK.DE (RSI 49.2, +265% 3M but -18% 30D, foreign), AEHR (RSI 49.1, +187% 3M but -18.5% 7D sharp), LITE (RSI 47.9, weak-down, -5% 30D), CIEN (RSI 47.8, +7.3% 7D bounce off -20% 30D), CLS (RSI 44.4, +30% 3M, -8.4% vs SMA20), LPTH (RSI 44.9, -17% 30D), OPTX (RSI 44.3, -16% 7D). Digesting strong 3M gains; need SMA20 reclaim before entry.
Deep pullback / Watch (RSI 36-43, still above SMA200): POET (RSI 42.1, -24% 30D, -51% from high), ALMU (RSI 41.6, -17% 30D), AAOI (RSI 40.9, -22% 30D, -20% vs SMA20, -41% from high), FN (RSI 40.6, -17% 30D, weak-down, +9% vs SMA200 only), HIMX (RSI 39.7, -29% 30D), SOI.PA (RSI 39.2, -39% 30D, foreign substrate), AXTI (RSI 38.7, -47% 30D, -51% from high — sharp substrate unwind), ALRIB.PA (RSI 37.5), KOPN (RSI 36.3, -32% 30D), LWLG (RSI 36.1, -56% from high, +23% vs SMA200). Lowest RSIs; none sub-30, all above SMA200 = pullback regime, not capitulation. Wait for floor + trend turn.
Breakdown / Avoid: PLAB (RSI 42.7, down trend, collapse regime, -40% 30D, -3% vs SMA200 — the photomask name is the lone genuine break below SMA200; falling-knife, not a value buy).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | $137.98 | 40.9 | -22.32% | -41% from high, -20% vs SMA20 but +74% vs SMA200; +42% 3M intact. Watch for RSI<35 capitulation or SMA20 reclaim ($172) |
| AXTI | $69.94 | 38.7 | -47.25% | Sharpest drop in book; -51% from high but still +73% vs SMA200, golden cross. Substrate unwind — needs a floor + catalyst, not a knife-catch |
| CIEN | $480.27 | 47.8 | -20.27% | +7.3% 7D bounce off the 30D drop; back near SMA20. Headline networking name; watch for SMA20 ($492) reclaim to confirm turn |
| FN | $562.00 | 40.6 | -17.45% | Weak-down, only +9% vs SMA200 (thinnest cushion of the leaders); -25% from high. Needs trend stabilization before a buy |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | SNDK, ALAB, ONTO, GLW, IBIDF, 6779.T, FORM, MTSI, JBL, COHR, SMTC, TSEM | Strong-up trends, near highs — hold, extended to chase |
| 🔍 WATCH | VIAV, LPK.DE, AEHR, LITE, CIEN, CLS, LPTH, OPTX | Mid-RSI pullbacks of strong 3M trends; need SMA20 reclaim |
| 🔍 WATCH | POET, ALMU, AAOI, FN, HIMX, SOI.PA, AXTI, ALRIB.PA, KOPN, LWLG | Deep pullbacks (RSI 36-43), all above SMA200; watch for floors, no buy yet |
| ❌ AVOID | PLAB | Down trend, collapse regime, below SMA200 — falling knife |
| ⚠️ AVOID | NGKIF | RSI 75 overbought, -4.9% from high — don't chase (foreign, thin) |
What Changed
- Bifurcation widened vs 06-20 — packaging/test enablers (SNDK, ALAB, ONTO, GLW, IBIDF) held/pushed near highs while module/feeder names (AXTI, SOI.PA, AAOI, FN, HIMX) fell further into pullback
- AXTI cratered — RSI 38.7, -47% 30D, -51% from high; the worst single-name unwind in the book (substrate/China-exposure)
- SOI.PA (Soitec) deepened — RSI 39.2, -39% 30D, -44% from high; the SOI-substrate feeder layer is the weakest foreign name
- GLW now a near-high leader — RSI 63.6, +15% 30D, only -2.3% from high; Corning fiber/optics joining the leader tier
- CIEN bounced +7.3% 7D off its -20% 30D drop, back near SMA20 — first sign of a floor attempt in the module layer
- PLAB is the only true breakdown — collapse regime, down trend, below SMA200; distinct from the above-SMA200 pullback names
- No US oversold — lowest RSI is LWLG 36.1 / KOPN 36.3; none sub-30, all pullbacks not capitulation
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Enabler layer (SNDK/ALAB/ONTO/GLW/IBIDF) leads while module/feeder layer (AXTI/SOI.PA/AAOI/FN) corrects | Picks-and-shovels of AI-optics still the stronger trade than transceiver/substrate names directly |
| AXTI -47% 30D + SOI.PA -39% 30D are sharpest substrate-feeder unwinds, both still > SMA200 | Deep but not broken; watch for floor — substrate layer is the volatility sink of the chain |
| GLW only -2.3% from high with RSI 63.6 | Corning has rotated into the leader tier; the broad fiber/optics infra name confirming the trend |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Buying AXTI/SOI.PA on "biggest drop" alone | -47%/-39% 30D is momentum unwind in a still-above-SMA200 name; oversold-looking ≠ floor confirmed |
| Treating PLAB like the other pullbacks | PLAB is collapse regime, below SMA200 — it's the one genuine breakdown, not a dip |
| Chasing NGKIF at RSI 75 | Only -4.9% from high, thin foreign listing — asymmetric entry risk |
Open Questions
- Does AXTI's -47% 30D have a specific substrate-pricing / China-export catalyst, or is it momentum unwind? (needs event verify — not in this scan)
- Is the module-layer pullback (AAOI/FN/CIEN) a rotation into packaging, or a softening demand signal? (event verify)
- CIEN's +7.3% 7D bounce — floor or dead-cat? (watch SMA20 reclaim at $492)
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.