Optical Supply Chain Scan

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Optical Supply Chain Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 54 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusscheduledprior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-31-optical-supply-chain.md

This cycle is the widest repair the book has shown yet — all five names still tagged collapse last cycle (LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, ALMU) crossed out of it, and every one of the 37 names posted a higher RSI and a stronger 30-day return than last cycle. The only name moving the other way is CLS, freshly downgraded into collapse after holding the book's steadiest tier for two straight cycles. AXTI's 30-day return flipped from -7.07% to +47.34%, and AEHR's climbed to +51.82% — the two sharpest single-name moves in a genuinely broad rally.

Data as-of the 2026-08-07 close for the full 37-name book — no staleness this cycle, including NGKIF and HIMX, both one session behind last time. Prior scan: 2026-07-31-optical-supply-chain (data as-of the 2026-07-31 close).

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟢 A book-wide reversal — the entire five-name collapse pocket cleared while one new name (CLS) took its place
Key insight Every name in the book posted a higher RSI and an improved 30-day return this cycle; AXTI's 30-day print flipped from -7.07% to +47.34%

What's Going On

This cycle turned into the broadest repair this book has shown. LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, and ALMU — the five names carried in collapse for at least a cycle running — all crossed out of that tag: LWLG and FN moved to pullback, LPTH to pullback, ALMU to pullback (thesis still rated no-view), and PLAB to downtrend. Each of the five also posted a materially stronger 30-day return: FN's flipped from -20.43% to +17.15%, LPTH's from -34.74% to +3.08%, LWLG's from -20.44% to +18.57%. Against that clean sweep, CLS is the one name that moved the wrong direction — after sitting in the book's steadiest tier for two straight cycles (RSI 47.3 last cycle, non-collapse), it dropped into collapse this cycle as RSI eased to 44.6 and its 30-day return widened to -11.89% from -8.35%. The names that had already repaired out of collapse in the prior cycle — AXTI, COHR, AAOI, FORM, GLW — kept climbing rather than stalling: AXTI's RSI reached 65.4, the highest in the book, and its 30-day return flipped from -7.07% to +47.34%; COHR's RSI hit 63.6 with its 30-day return up to +19.58%; AAOI's RSI climbed to 56.7 with a +18.52% 30-day gain. AEHR posted the single sharpest 30-day move in the book outside AXTI, its return climbing to +51.82% from -5.27% last cycle, on a RSI of 57.8. LITE's RSI rose to 59.0 with its 30-day return up to +25.89%, thesis still rated intact. POET, which had held its downtrend regime for a second cycle with thesis rated intact, finally upgraded to pullback this cycle as RSI climbed from 41.0 to 54.2 and its 30-day return turned positive at +4.7%. Not every name is participating equally: NGKIF remains the lowest RSI in the book at 29.3, though that is still an improvement from 21.9 last cycle, and it printed 100 shares against a 60-share average — thin, but no longer stale. IBIDF traded zero shares this cycle against a 1,020-share average, thinner than the 0.08x print it carried last time. SNDK's RSI improved only modestly to 41.7 and its 30-day loss, while narrowing, still sits at -29.82%.

What Changed Since 2026-07-31

  • LWLG: regime upgraded collapse → pullback; RSI 43.4 → 56.2; 30-day flipped from -20.44% to +18.57%.
  • FN: regime upgraded collapse → pullback; RSI 37.2 → 59.6, now the third-highest reading in the book; 30-day flipped from -20.43% to +17.15%.
  • PLAB: regime upgraded collapse → downtrend; RSI 48.5 → 56.2; 30-day flipped from -0.07% to +16.03%.
  • LPTH: regime upgraded collapse → pullback; RSI 41.3 → 55.9; 30-day flipped from -34.74% to +3.08%.
  • ALMU: regime upgraded collapse → pullback; RSI 45.0 → 53.5; 30-day flipped from -20.98% to +3.16%; thesis stays rated no-view.
  • CLS: regime downgraded pullback → collapse — the only name moving the wrong direction this cycle; RSI 47.3 → 44.6; 30-day widened to -11.89% (was -8.35%).
  • POET: regime upgraded downtrend → pullback, thesis still intact; RSI 41.0 → 54.2; 30-day flipped from -27.94% to +4.7%.
  • AXTI: RSI 51.3 → 65.4, highest in the book, regime held pullback; 30-day flipped from -7.07% to +47.34% on continued strength.
  • AEHR: RSI 48.5 → 57.8; 30-day climbed to +51.82% (was -5.27%), the sharpest monthly swing in the book after AXTI.
  • COHR: RSI 40.5 → 63.6; 30-day flipped from -28.69% to +19.58%.
  • AAOI: RSI 40.7 → 56.7; 30-day flipped from -32.14% to +18.52%.
  • LITE: RSI 45.4 → 59.0, thesis still intact; 30-day climbed to +25.89% (was -10.89%).
  • MTSI: RSI 36.1 → 56.6; 30-day flipped from -28.29% to +1.83%.
  • SIVEF: RSI 38.8 → 51.1, regime still too-young; 30-day flipped from -45.7% to +6.18%.
  • LAZR: RSI 37.0 → 53.8, regime still too-young; 30-day flipped from -21.12% to +11.8%.
  • SNDK: RSI 40.8 → 41.7, still the deepest monthly loss in the book; 30-day narrowed to -29.82% (was -40.22%).
  • IBIDF: RSI held at 40.3; volume printed zero shares this cycle (was 0.08x average), even thinner than last time.
  • NGKIF: RSI 21.9 → 29.3, still the lowest in the book but improving; bar now current (was one session stale); 30-day narrowed to -26.93% (was -29.38%).

How To Read The Board

Regime labels describe chart structure, not a buy/sell call. A five-name collapse pocket clearing in a single cycle, with every remaining name in the book improving on both RSI and 30-day return, is the strongest structural signal this book has produced in recent cycles — but it also means almost nothing in the 40-65 RSI range that makes up most of the book is a fresh entry; it's confirmation that a broad selloff found a floor. CLS dropping into collapse after two cycles as one of the steadier names is the one signal worth tracking closely, since it moved against the grain of everything else in the book. AXTI and AEHR's outsized 30-day swings are large enough to warrant checking whether they're chasing an already-extended move rather than an early entry.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI 7D% 30D% vs SMA20 Trend From 52wkHigh
AXTI $88.58 65.4 +46.58% +47.34% +59.2% strong-up -52.07% (regime: pullback)
COHR $379.13 63.6 +44.22% +19.58% +28.9% strong-up -25.4% (regime: pullback)
FN $562.38 59.6 +29.16% +17.15% +15.5% strong-up -30.27% (regime: pullback, upgraded from collapse)
LITE $890.17 59.0 +24.68% +25.89% +15.9% strong-up -23.89% (regime: pullback; thesis: intact)
SOI.PA €122.50 57.9 +15.41% +24.57% +17.6% strong-up -38.9%
AEHR $103.07 57.8 +28.87% +51.82% +21.2% strong-up -21.99%
AAOI $135.63 56.7 +43.8% +18.52% +24.9% weak-down -44.98% (regime: pullback)
MTSI $310.82 56.6 +23.62% +1.83% +13.8% weak-down -37.11%
LWLG $8.11 56.2 +25.54% +18.57% +22.5% weak-down -61.14% (regime: pullback, upgraded from collapse)
PLAB $32.65 56.2 +7.79% +16.03% +7.8% weak-up -42.91% (regime: downtrend, upgraded from collapse)
IQEPF $0.64 56.1 +19.81% +24.51% +12.6% strong-up -42.28%
LPTH $13.06 55.9 +25.94% +3.08% +15.9% weak-down -36.69% (regime: pullback, upgraded from collapse)
ONTO $308.30 55.7 +19.23% +5.78% +10.8% strong-up -28.58%
JBL $341.22 55.4 +8.31% +4.92% +7.3% weak-down -21.05%
TSEM $252.49 55.1 +14.94% +16.52% +8.9% strong-up -34.01%
HIMX $14.61 55.1 +16.51% -1.95% +10.7% weak-down -46.79% (fresh print, was one session stale)
KOPN $4.27 55.0 +21.31% +8.38% +12.7% weak-down -40.24%
SMTC $139.42 54.7 +18.33% +8.21% +9.8% weak-down -31.63%
POET $8.91 54.2 +27.47% +4.7% +15.7% weak-down -61.12% (regime: pullback, upgraded from downtrend; thesis: intact)
LAZR $45.84 53.8 +22.37% +11.8% +15.4% neutral -17.03% (regime: too-young)
ALMU $18.30 53.5 +12.96% +3.16% +14.6% weak-down -47.09% (regime: pullback, upgraded from collapse; thesis: no-view)
FORM $117.39 52.1 +10.54% +5.2% +8.6% weak-down -28.6%
GLW $165.68 51.6 +19.84% -9.97% +7.5% weak-down -42.34%
SIVEF $4.42 51.1 +34.66% +6.18% +22.1% neutral -67.73% (regime: too-young)
ALAB $334.17 50.6 +7.37% -15.0% +5.3% weak-down -36.25%
CIEN $412.39 50.2 +9.37% -6.48% +4.5% weak-down -35.87% (thesis: intact-but-priced)
MXL $74.98 48.7 +12.21% -12.86% +0.3% weak-down -47.42%
OPTX $7.79 48.1 +19.3% -15.23% +5.0% weak-down -48.66%
VIAV $39.14 47.1 +5.93% -3.83% +0.6% weak-down -35.63%
6779.T ¥2797 46.1 +11.88% -11.35% -0.7% weak-down -44.17%
CLS $317.83 44.6 -4.11% -11.89% -4.3% down -23.47% (regime: collapse, downgraded from pullback)
LPK.DE €15.30 44.0 +9.93% -7.83% -0.3% weak-down -50.32%
ALRIB.PA €9.65 43.4 +8.78% -0.62% -0.6% weak-down -47.84%
FLTCF $3.21 41.8 +1.26% -3.6% -5.2% weak-down -62.24%
SNDK $1212.21 41.7 -0.22% -29.82% -13.0% weak-down -42.64%
IBIDF $98.40 40.3 +0.05% -18.36% -4.5% weak-down -35.88% (zero volume this cycle)
NGKIF $34.02 29.3 +3.22% -26.93% -11.4% weak-down -31.97% (thin volume, ~1.7x a 60-share average)

Tier Analysis

Tier A — Strongest confirmed reads, RSI 55+ (17): AXTI, COHR, FN, LITE, SOI.PA, AEHR, AAOI, MTSI, LWLG, PLAB, IQEPF, LPTH, ONTO, JBL, TSEM, HIMX, KOPN, SMTC.

Tier B — Mid-book, building, RSI 40-55 (16): POET (thesis intact), LAZR (too-young), ALMU (no-view thesis), FORM, GLW, SIVEF (too-young), ALAB, CIEN (intact-but-priced), MXL, OPTX, VIAV, 6779.T, LPK.DE, ALRIB.PA, FLTCF, SNDK.

Tier C — Structural avoid, regime collapse (1, down from 5): CLS, a fresh downgrade this cycle.

Tier D — Data caveat (2): NGKIF (lowest RSI in the book, still near-zero volume), IBIDF (zero shares traded this cycle).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
LITE $890.17 59.0 +25.89% Thesis intact, RSI climbed 13.6 points on continued strength
POET $8.91 54.2 +4.7% Thesis intact, fresh upgrade out of downtrend this cycle
CIEN $412.39 50.2 -6.48% Thesis rated intact-but-priced, mid-book RSI with a narrowing monthly loss
CLS $317.83 44.6 -11.89% Fresh downgrade into collapse — worth a look only if the next cycle confirms it holds, not before

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 RESEARCH LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, ALMU All five freshly repaired out of collapse this cycle — worth confirming the upgrades hold a second cycle
📈 ACCUMULATE LITE, POET Thesis-rated names, both showing strong narrowing or reversal in 30-day return
🔒 HOLD AXTI, COHR, FN, AEHR, AAOI, MTSI, IQEPF, ONTO, JBL, TSEM, HIMX, KOPN, SMTC RSI 55+, non-collapse, continuing strength from last cycle's repairs
⚠️ AVOID GLW, SIVEF, ALAB, MXL, OPTX, VIAV, 6779.T, LPK.DE, ALRIB.PA, FLTCF, SNDK Mid-to-low RSI, still-negative or shallow 30-day reads
❌ DON'T BUY CLS Fresh collapse downgrade this cycle, the one name moving against the book
🔍 DATA CAVEAT NGKIF, IBIDF Near-zero volume (NGKIF) or zero shares traded (IBIDF)

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Whether the five freshly-repaired names (LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, ALMU) hold their upgrades A single cycle of improvement isn't yet a confirmed structural change
CLS's fresh collapse tag The one name moving against an otherwise book-wide recovery — worth understanding before treating it as noise
AXTI and AEHR's outsized 30-day swings +47.34% and +51.82% respectively — the sharpest moves in the book, worth checking for exhaustion
NGKIF's volume Still under 100 shares a session; the RSI print is real but the tape behind it barely trades
IBIDF's zero-volume print Went from thin to literally no trades this cycle

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-07 close — optical-supply-chain.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.