Optical Supply Chain Scan

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Optical Supply Chain Scan

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RSI cooled across most of the 37-name book again this week, and two names — LPTH and POET — flipped fresh into a collapse tag. But the trailing-year check says only one name in this book is a genuine breakdown: ALMU, negative over 12 months, negative alpha, below its 200-day, thesis rated no-view. FN and PLAB are the two names to watch closer — both now carry a negative one-year alpha alongside their weak charts, which is real longer-horizon backing rather than short-window noise. Three European names (SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE) are sitting on a bar dated August 21 — a full week stale — and should not be read as confirmed unchanged.

Data as-of the 2026-08-28 close for most of the 37-name book. Three names (SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE) last updated 2026-08-21 via yfinance — a week-old bar. 6779.T last updated 2026-08-26. NGKIF updated 2026-08-27 but printed zero shares traded. The comparison baseline below is the August 22 scan.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 A broad weekly cooldown continues — RSI fell for most names — but 34 of 37 remain above their 200-day with strongly positive trailing-year gains; this reads as digestion inside intact trends, not a book-wide breakdown
Leaders IQEPF (RSI 55.9), IBIDF (54.7, now confirmed by real volume after three thin cycles), LITE (53.1, thesis intact) — all above their 200-day with large trailing-year gains
Laggards ALMU (RSI 35.1) is the one clean breakdown — negative 1-year, negative alpha, below its 200-day, thesis no-view. FN and PLAB are the two names where a negative alpha1y now backs up the weak chart
Caveat SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, and LPK.DE are frozen on a 2026-08-21 bar (yfinance) — a week stale, not confirmed flat. NGKIF printed zero volume this cycle

What's Going On

The book-wide cooldown flagged last cycle continued into this one. LPTH posted the sharpest RSI drop in the book — from 57.5 to 42.5, a 15-point fall — and its regime flipped fresh from pullback into collapse. POET did the same, dropping from RSI 47.3 to 41.4 and flipping into collapse as well. Read on the week alone, both would look like fresh breakdowns. Read against the trailing year, neither is: LPTH is still up 106.43% over the past 12 months with a strongly positive alpha1y of 86.56, and POET is up 32.74% over the year with its thesis still rated intact — both look like violent pullbacks landing on top of trends that haven't actually broken, not the start of something worse.

ALMU remains the one name in this book where the collapse tag has genuine backing at every horizon. Its RSI fell further to 35.1, it's down 38.54% over the trailing year with a deeply negative alpha1y of -58.41, it sits 26% below its 200-day, and its thesis is explicitly rated no-view. There's no long-horizon counter-argument here the way there is for LPTH or POET — every window agrees this name is weak.

FN and PLAB deserve a step up in scrutiny this cycle. Both carry death-crosses, both sit more than 20% below their 200-day (FN -22.8%, PLAB -21.6%), and — unlike most of the rest of the book — both now show a negative alpha1y (FN -3.17, PLAB -2.27), meaning both have actually underperformed the benchmark over the past year even though FN's nominal one-year return is still slightly positive. That combination is the one genuine long-horizon confirm in this cycle's data outside of ALMU, and it separates these two from names like LWLG and CLS, which also sit below their 200-day but still carry positive alpha1y.

Two data-quality notes matter before reading anything else in this book at face value. SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, and LPK.DE all show the identical price and RSI they carried in the August 22 scan — their underlying bar is dated 2026-08-21, meaning these three haven't actually printed a new close in a week. Treat their numbers as stale, not as evidence the names held flat. NGKIF, which printed real (if thin) volume at 7.5x average last cycle, reverted to zero shares traded this cycle even as its RSI rose 11 points to 36.5 — that RSI move should be treated as unconfirmed until a real trade lands. IBIDF is the opposite story: after three straight cycles of zero-volume prints, it finally printed a real (if still thin) 470 shares this cycle, an upgrade in data quality even if the size stays small.

What Changed Since August 22

  • LPTH: RSI 57.5 → 42.5, the sharpest drop in the book; regime flipped fresh from pullback to collapse; still +106.43% over the trailing year with a strongly positive alpha1y.
  • POET: RSI 47.3 → 41.4; regime flipped fresh from pullback to collapse; thesis still rated intact, still +32.74% over the trailing year.
  • KOPN: RSI 58.3 → 48.5, one of the larger drops in the book; still +105.5% over the trailing year and above its 200-day.
  • PLAB: RSI 44.2 → 34.7; regime label shifted from collapse to downtrend even as price and RSI both kept falling; alpha1y turned negative (-2.27), now below its 200-day by 21.6%.
  • FN: RSI 39.1 → 37.3; regime held collapse; alpha1y is negative (-3.17), 22.8% below its 200-day — the near-term weakness now has real longer-horizon backing.
  • IQEPF: RSI 50.0 → 55.9, now the highest reading in the book.
  • IBIDF: RSI 50.5 → 54.7; finally printed real (if thin) volume — 470 shares — after three straight zero-volume cycles.
  • NGKIF: RSI 25.4 → 36.5, but this cycle printed zero shares traded, reversing last cycle's real 7.5x-average volume print — the RSI move is unconfirmed.
  • SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE: all three show identical price and RSI to the August 22 scan — their bar is dated 2026-08-21, a full week stale.
  • AEHR: RSI 49.0 → 40.0, continuing to cool after its sharp weekly drop two cycles ago; still +198.74% over the trailing year.
  • SMTC: RSI 45.7 → 49.3, one of the few names to gain ground this cycle.

How To Read The Board

Regime labels describe chart structure, not a buy/sell call, and this cycle's fresh collapse tags on LPTH and POET are the clearest case yet in this book for checking the trailing year before reading a tag as a verdict. Both remain strongly positive over 12 months with no long-horizon counter-argument against them being violent pullbacks rather than breakdowns. ALMU is the opposite case: every window — the week, the year, the position relative to its 200-day, and the thesis rating — agrees it's genuinely broken. FN and PLAB sit in between: their charts have looked weak for a while, but this cycle is the first time their alpha1y has actually turned negative, which is a real signal, not noise. Before drawing any conclusion from SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE, or NGKIF this cycle, note that three of those four prints are either stale or unconfirmed by volume — none of their numbers should be treated as fresh information.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Signal
IQEPF $0.66 55.9 $0.63 +5.3% +8.2% +32.0% pullback
IBIDF $124.39 54.7 $114.08 +9.0% +5.5% +47.66% pullback (real volume, ends 3-cycle zero-volume streak)
LITE $895.00 53.1 $873.93 +2.4% +3.2% +48.58% pullback (thesis: intact)
OPTX $8.52 51.6 $8.27 +3.0% -0.12% +44.9% pullback
SMTC $131.17 49.3 $132.33 -0.9% +5.66% +26.67% pullback
SNDK $1484.98 49.3 $1459.04 +1.8% -6.93% +46.18% pullback
KOPN $4.48 48.5 $4.69 -4.4% -10.91% +41.77% pullback
LAZR $42.08 47.5 $44.41 -5.2% -4.31% +29.28% too-young
6779.T ¥2,806 46.7 ¥2,808.85 -0.1% +1.3% +1.15% pullback (bar 2 days stale)
HIMX $13.64 46.2 $14.16 -3.7% -1.09% +17.18% pullback
SOI.PA €109.80 45.7 €115.77 -5.2% -15.02% +14.35% pullback (bar 1 week stale)
GLW $148.98 44.6 $156.46 -4.8% -0.61% +20.1% pullback
ALAB $289.47 44.0 $309.57 -6.5% +1.65% +15.91% pullback
CIEN $378.44 43.8 $404.30 -6.4% -4.42% +14.55% pullback (thesis: intact-but-priced)
COHR $279.20 43.7 $313.66 -11.0% -3.53% +25.74% pullback
MTSI $265.27 43.3 $284.93 -6.9% -0.49% +15.99% pullback
FLTCF $3.19 43.2 $3.33 -4.1% -3.33% -1.85% pullback
CLS $298.70 42.9 $321.55 -7.1% +0.85% -9.05% collapse (still below 200-day, alpha1y positive)
AXTI $58.63 42.9 $73.53 -20.3% -17.16% +58.59% pullback
ONTO $270.79 42.7 $300.76 -10.0% -7.74% +24.04% pullback
VIAV $36.54 42.6 $39.71 -8.0% -6.14% +13.37% pullback
AAOI $106.23 42.6 $126.61 -16.1% -14.86% +38.83% pullback
LPTH $11.23 42.5 $13.17 -14.7% -22.18% +19.6% collapse (fresh; alpha1y still +86.56)
POET $7.50 41.4 $8.42 -10.9% -9.08% +17.74% collapse (fresh; thesis: intact)
MXL $61.73 41.4 $69.94 -11.7% -7.4% +7.83% pullback
TSEM $208.01 41.0 $234.65 -11.4% -6.61% +10.74% pullback
FORM $101.70 40.2 $117.23 -13.3% -11.08% +21.87% pullback
AEHR $80.81 40.0 $107.60 -24.9% -20.53% +23.56% pullback
JBL $301.45 38.1 $333.75 -9.7% -3.74% +4.98% pullback
ALRIB.PA €9.04 37.5 €9.39 -3.7% -7.0% -9.24% pullback (bar 1 week stale)
FN $414.36 37.3 $496.59 -16.6% -5.2% -0.03% collapse (death-cross, alpha1y negative)
SIVEF $2.83 36.9 $3.89 -27.2% -27.37% +4.81% too-young
LWLG $5.49 36.8 $6.87 -20.0% -11.77% +2.62% collapse (below 200-day, alpha1y still positive)
NGKIF $33.42 36.5 $34.07 -1.9% -6.02% +1.4% pullback (zero volume this cycle)
ALMU $13.14 35.1 $16.22 -19.0% -10.91% -12.75% collapse (thesis: no-view, negative 1y and alpha)
LPK.DE €13.05 34.8 €14.67 -11.1% -13.29% -22.78% pullback (bar 1 week stale)
PLAB $27.73 34.7 $31.51 -12.0% -9.08% -0.75% downtrend (death-cross, alpha1y negative)

Tier Analysis

Tier A — RSI 50+, confirmed strength (4): IQEPF, IBIDF (real volume, ends stale streak), LITE (thesis intact), OPTX.

Tier B — Mid-book, RSI 45-50 (7): SMTC, SNDK, KOPN, LAZR, 6779.T (stale bar), HIMX, SOI.PA (stale bar).

Tier C — Cooling, RSI 40-45 (17): GLW, ALAB, CIEN, COHR, MTSI, FLTCF, CLS (collapse), AXTI, ONTO, VIAV, AAOI, LPTH (fresh collapse), POET (fresh collapse), MXL, TSEM, FORM, AEHR.

Tier D — Weakest, RSI <40 (9): JBL, ALRIB.PA (stale bar), FN (collapse, negative alpha), SIVEF, LWLG (collapse), NGKIF (zero volume), ALMU (collapse, no-view, the one clean breakdown), LPK.DE (stale bar), PLAB (downtrend, negative alpha).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
LPTH $11.23 42.5 +19.6% Fresh collapse tag this cycle, but +106.43% over the trailing year with a strongly positive alpha1y — reads as a violent pullback, not a breakdown
POET $7.50 41.4 +17.74% Fresh collapse tag, but thesis rated intact and +32.74% over the trailing year
IBIDF $124.39 54.7 +47.66% Just posted its first real-volume print after three straight zero-volume cycles — the data-quality upgrade matters as much as the price move

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD LITE, IQEPF, OPTX RSI 50+, thesis-intact or strongly positive trailing-year gains
🔍 RESEARCH LPTH, POET, IBIDF Fresh collapse tags or a data-quality upgrade sitting on top of strong or newly-confirmed trailing-year evidence
⚠️ AVOID FN, PLAB Both now carry a negative one-year alpha alongside a death-cross and 20%+ distance below their 200-day — real longer-horizon backing for the weak chart
❌ DON'T BUY ALMU Collapse regime, thesis rated no-view, negative on both the trailing year and alpha — the one clean breakdown in this book
🔍 DATA CAVEAT SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, LPK.DE, NGKIF Three names on a week-old bar, one on zero volume this cycle — none of these prints should be read as fresh
🔍 WATCH CLS, LWLG Still collapse-tagged and below their 200-day, but alpha1y remains positive — trend under test, not yet broken

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Whether SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA, and LPK.DE refresh next cycle All three are stuck on a 2026-08-21 bar — a week stale — and their true current price is unknown
NGKIF's next print Reverted to zero volume this cycle after a real 7.5x-average print last cycle; the RSI move needs a real trade to confirm
FN and PLAB's alpha1y Both turned negative this cycle for the first time in this dataset — worth confirming whether this deepens or reverses
ALMU's thesis rating Still no-view, still the only name in the book where every horizon agrees it's broken
LPTH and POET stabilizing Both flipped fresh into collapse this cycle despite strong trailing-year numbers — the next print shows whether this was a one-cycle shock or the start of something worse

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year, SMA200): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-28 close — optical-supply-chain.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.