Optical Supply Chain Scan
Optical Supply Chain Scan
The book flipped hard from the September 23 giveback: 24 of 28 names closed green today, and the negative-alpha group that widened to three names last scan is back down to two — Lightwave Logic's trailing-year alpha repaired to positive. MaxLinear posted the largest single-day move in the book, up 10% and now 48.95% higher on the month, while Viavi and Aehr Test Systems both jumped more than 7% with no dated cause on file for either.
Numbers are the settled September 25 close for all 28 names, two trading sessions after the September 23 scan (Thursday September 24 and today). LAZR still carries no 200-day or trailing-year comparison (too-young regime). Comparison baseline is the September 23 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 24 of 28 names closed green today, reversing the September 23 giveback; the negative-alpha group narrowed from three names to two |
| Leaders | MXL (RSI 67.7, +10% today, +48.95% on the month), ALAB (64.4, still running with no cause on file), SMTC (63.1), FORM (62.9) |
| Laggards | AAOI (RSI 44.7, still below its 200-day), LPTH (44.8, still below its 200-day), CIEN (48.1) |
| What changed | Lightwave Logic's trailing-year alpha held positive at +17.9, keeping the negative-alpha group at two names (FN, ALMU) instead of the three flagged last scan; Optical Transport (OPTX) lost its reclaimed 200-day again |
| Caveat | MXL's 10% day, ALAB's continued run, and Viavi's and Aehr's single-day jumps all have no dated cause on file in this book's news receipts |
What's Going On
The book reversed the September 23 giveback in a hurry. Every name but four — Ciena, Celestica, LightPath, and Aeluma — closed green today, and the RSI compression flagged last scan is gone: MaxLinear alone gained 6.4 points to 67.7, the highest reading in the book, after a 10% single-day move that follows a 48.95% run over the trailing month. Nothing in MaxLinear's news receipt (last pulled September 25, aggregator quote pages only) explains either the day or the month; the stock is now up 487.97% on the trailing year with alpha of +470.75, extended by any measure and not a discount at current levels.
The negative-alpha group the desk flagged as widening last scan has narrowed back. Lightwave Logic's trailing-year alpha, which crossed from +23.20 to -3.41 in the September 23 scan, is now +17.9 — back in positive territory. That leaves only Fabrinet and Aeluma failing every long-horizon check the desk runs on this book, the same two-name group that held for most of September before last scan's brief widening.
Viavi Solutions and Aehr Test Systems both posted the kind of moves that would normally draw a filing search: Viavi rose 9.27% today with its RSI climbing 11.6 points to 59.9, and Aehr rose 7.15% with its RSI up 4.9 points to 58.3. Neither name's news receipt (Viavi pulled September 22, Aehr pulled September 15) carries anything dated to this week — both moves sit on the tape with no confirmed driver. Sandisk is a partial exception: the September 24 daily brief recorded a broad memory-and-disk-storage sell-off that day (Sandisk fell 3.47% alongside Western Digital and Seagate, with the brief noting no confirmed cause for any of the three), and Sandisk's 1.38% gain today looks like a partial bounce from that session rather than a new catalyst.
Optical Transport is the one name that lost ground structurally. It reclaimed its 200-day average in the September 23 scan by 1.1%; today it sits 2.1% below the line again, a re-cross rather than a hold. Applied Optoelectronics remains below its 200-day by 5.2%, essentially unchanged from last scan's 4.9% gap.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
- 20 of 28 names gained RSI ground since the September 23 close; Viavi (+11.6 points) led, followed by MaxLinear (+6.4), Semtech (+5.2), Fabrinet (FN, +5.5), Jabil (+5.2), and Aehr Test Systems (+4.9). Sandisk (-2.8), Coherent (COHR, -1.3), and FormFactor (FORM, -1.9) posted the largest declines.
- Lightwave Logic's trailing-year alpha crossed from -3.41 back to +17.9 — the negative-alpha group narrowed from three names to two (FN, ALMU).
- FN's alpha improved to -1.58 from -10.34, nearly breakeven; ALMU's alpha held roughly flat at -43.51 (from -43.63), still rated no-view.
- OPTX crossed back below its 200-day (-2.1%), reversing the reclaim flagged in the September 23 scan; the below-200-day group grew back to nine names (CIEN, LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, POET, ALMU, AAOI, OPTX), from eight.
- Today closed 24 of 28 green, a full reversal of the September 23 scan's 24-of-28 red session.
How To Read The Board
Today's breadth is the headline, but the horizon check is still the more durable read. Seven names sit below their 200-day average with positive trailing-year alpha (CIEN, LWLG, PLAB, LPTH, POET, OPTX, AAOI) — a trend-under-test reading, not a breakdown. Only Fabrinet and Aeluma fail every long window at once, down from three last scan as Lightwave Logic's alpha repaired.
MaxLinear is now the name most worth separating from the rest: a 487.97% trailing-year gain with no dated catalyst behind the last month's acceleration is the definition of extended, not a setup. Astera Labs remains in the same position it has held for two scans running — a strong, unexplained multi-week run that the news receipts simply do not confirm a cause for.
Viavi and Aehr's single-day jumps sit in the same bucket as MaxLinear's: real, tape-confirmed moves with no corpus receipt behind them. Treat the moves as facts and the absence of a cause as a separate fact, not license to assume one implies the other.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MXL | $93.84 | 67.7 | $71.89 | +30.5% | +15.68% | +48.95% | pullback (extended, best RSI in book; alpha +470.75) |
| ALAB | $364.62 | 64.4 | $303.21 | +20.3% | +20.24% | +25.6% | pullback (still no cause on file; alpha +64.51) |
| SMTC | $182.30 | 63.1 | $158.65 | +14.9% | -1.46% | +29.47% | uptrend (extended; alpha +178.58) |
| FORM | $129.69 | 62.9 | $111.04 | +16.8% | +9.55% | +19.97% | pullback (extended; alpha +247.08) |
| CLS | $365.44 | 61.4 | $327.33 | +11.6% | +9.86% | +18.91% | pullback (alpha +32.16) |
| KOPN | $4.99 | 60.2 | $4.54 | +10.0% | +5.27% | +5.5% | pullback (alpha +96.03) |
| VIAV | $40.68 | 59.9 | $36.19 | +12.4% | +15.05% | +4.9% | pullback (+9.27% today, no cause on file; alpha +213.78) |
| AXTI | $78.94 | 59.0 | $66.02 | +19.6% | +12.72% | +21.11% | pullback (alpha +1,544.68) |
| AEHR | $104.39 | 58.3 | $89.21 | +17.0% | +11.66% | +14.56% | pullback (+7.15% today, no cause on file; alpha +220.83) |
| SNDK | $1,777.80 | 57.3 | $1,663.79 | +6.9% | -0.78% | +18.57% | pullback (sold off Thursday with the memory/disk-storage cohort, bounced today; alpha +1,768.24) |
| MTSI | $285.57 | 55.5 | $268.07 | +6.5% | +3.52% | +4.73% | pullback (alpha +113.3) |
| PLAB | $30.40 | 55.4 | $28.72 | +5.8% | +4.43% | +0.5% | downtrend (below 200-day; alpha +9.93) |
| ONTO | $287.64 | 54.9 | $267.00 | +7.7% | +9.19% | -1.45% | pullback (alpha +107.62) |
| LITE | $941.65 | 54.5 | $911.70 | +3.3% | +1.15% | +0.28% | pullback (thesis: intact; alpha +474.61) |
| HIMX | $14.44 | 54.3 | $13.89 | +4.0% | +3.0% | +4.34% | pullback (alpha +49.72) |
| TSEM | $230.47 | 54.2 | $214.17 | +7.6% | +3.07% | +4.18% | pullback (alpha +219.97) |
| JBL | $316.74 | 53.9 | $305.13 | +3.8% | +5.73% | +1.88% | pullback (alpha +33.47) |
| LAZR | $44.89 | 53.3 | $43.24 | +3.8% | +1.08% | +1.68% | too-young (no 200-day/alpha comparison) |
| GLW | $156.74 | 51.7 | $153.25 | +2.3% | +4.40% | +2.59% | pullback (alpha +80.86) |
| COHR | $295.83 | 49.5 | $290.39 | +1.9% | -6.78% | +0.5% | pullback (alpha +160.37) |
| FN | $417.39 | 49.1 | $401.09 | +4.1% | +7.42% | -4.66% | collapse (below 200-day, the durable weak name; alpha improved to -1.58) |
| OPTX | $7.40 | 48.7 | $7.35 | +0.7% | +8.98% | -13.04% | collapse (lost its 200-day reclaim this scan; alpha +363.3) |
| POET | $7.77 | 48.4 | $7.69 | +1.1% | -0.38% | -3.84% | collapse (below 200-day; thesis: intact; alpha +8.31) |
| CIEN | $356.91 | 48.1 | $348.54 | +2.4% | +2.33% | -11.66% | collapse (below 200-day; thesis: intact-but-priced; alpha +142.98) |
| ALMU | $13.29 | 46.4 | $13.07 | +1.7% | +4.40% | -3.84% | collapse (below 200-day; thesis: no-view; alpha -43.51) |
| LWLG | $5.31 | 45.3 | $5.20 | +2.0% | +4.12% | -8.92% | collapse (below 200-day; alpha repaired to +17.9) |
| LPTH | $9.98 | 44.8 | $9.87 | +1.1% | +0.81% | -24.28% | collapse (below 200-day; alpha +36.32) |
| AAOI | $101.40 | 44.7 | $103.23 | -1.8% | -3.58% | -10.86% | collapse (below 200-day; alpha +267.75) |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): none.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): none. The book's lowest reading is AAOI at 44.7.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — all 28 names. The split that matters sits inside this tier: 26 of 28 names carry positive trailing-year alpha; only FN and ALMU are negative on every long window at once.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry zone | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| CIEN | $349-357 (near its $348.54 20-day) | 8.0% below its 200-day with alpha +142.98 intact — a trend under test, not a breakdown |
| POET, LPTH, PLAB, AAOI | current levels | All below their 200-day but carry positive trailing-year alpha — pullback reading, none confirmed with a volume-backed reclaim |
| OPTX | current levels | Lost this scan's 200-day reclaim, but alpha remains strongly positive at +363.3 |
| MXL, ALAB, SMTC, FORM | not zones | All extended (RSI 60+) with real single-day/multi-week moves and no dated catalyst behind them; chasing here is momentum, not a discount |
| FN, ALMU | not zones | The two names still negative on every long window; a low relative RSI here is damage, not a discount |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOPN, VIAV, AXTI, AEHR, SNDK, MTSI, ONTO, LITE, HIMX, TSEM, JBL, GLW, COHR | 🟢 Working | 🔒 Hold | Positive trailing-year alpha, above their 200-day, most posted a green session today |
| MXL, ALAB, SMTC, FORM, CLS | 🟠 Extended | ⚠️ Avoid chasing | RSI 61-68 with real recent moves and no dated cause behind them |
| OPTX | 🟡 Re-crossed below its 200-day | 🔍 Watch | Lost the reclaim flagged last scan; alpha still strongly positive |
| CIEN, POET, LPTH, PLAB, AAOI | 🟡 Trend under test | 🔍 Research | Below their 200-day but positive on trailing-year alpha |
| FN, ALMU | 🔴 Multi-window damage | ⚠️ Avoid | The two names negative on trailing year and alpha; FN's alpha is improving toward breakeven |
| LAZR | 🟡 Insufficient history | 🔍 Watch | Too-young regime; no 200-day or trailing-year check available |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether MaxLinear's run has a real catalyst behind it | Up 10% today and 48.95% on the month with nothing dated in its news receipt |
| Whether Optical Transport reclaims its 200-day a second time | Lost this scan's reclaim within one session |
| Whether Lightwave Logic's alpha repair holds | Crossed positive this scan after failing last scan; one more confirmation would settle the question |
| Astera Labs' continued run | Still no dated cause after three scans of strength |
| Viavi's and Aehr's single-day jumps | Both real, tape-confirmed moves with nothing in their news receipts to explain them |
| Whether FN's alpha crosses positive | Improved to -1.58 from -10.34; one more scan of improvement would close the negative-alpha group to just Aeluma |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| The negative-alpha group narrowed from three names to two | Lightwave Logic's trailing-year alpha repaired to +17.9, leaving only Fabrinet and Aeluma broken on every long window |
| Today's session fully reversed the September 23 giveback | 24 of 28 green today against 24 of 28 red last scan — confirms the pullback read from two scans ago rather than a trend change |
| MaxLinear posted the book's largest single-day move with no dated cause | +10% today on top of a 48.95% month, none of it explained in its news receipt |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Treating a single scan's negative-alpha crossing as permanent | Lightwave Logic's alpha flip to negative last scan reversed within two sessions — one scan's crossing needs a second confirmation |
| Assuming a memory-sector sell-off day explains the next day's bounce | Sandisk's Thursday decline (Sept 24 brief, cause unknown) and today's 1.38% gain are two separate facts, not one story |
Open Questions
- What is actually driving MaxLinear's run, with no filing or dated event on the desk's record?
- Does Optical Transport reclaim its 200-day a second time, or does the re-cross stick?
- Does Fabrinet's alpha cross positive next scan, closing the negative-alpha group to one name?
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-25 close — optical-supply-chain.
- MaxLinear news receipt (pull completed 2026-09-25, aggregator quote pages only): latest.
- Viavi news receipt (pull completed 2026-09-22, no item dated to this week): latest.
- Aehr Test Systems news receipt (pull completed 2026-09-15, no item dated to this week): latest.
- Astera Labs news receipt (pull completed 2026-09-22, newest article 2026-08-24, predates the current run): latest.
- Memory/disk-storage sell-off context for Sandisk (Sept 24 session, cause unknown): 2026-09-24-market-brief.
- Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-23-optical-supply-chain.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.