Optical Supply Chain Scan
Optical Supply Chain Scan
The optical rally broke this week: only 5 of 28 names finished the week higher after Thursday's AI-hardware selloff, which followed a CNBC-confirmed report that OpenAI's annualized revenue is about $50 billion. Aehr (-21.05%) and AXT (-20.27%) led the decline, the overbought list went from three names to none, and Applied Optoelectronics slipped under its 200-day. The long trends mostly held. Ciena rose 14.93% on the week and now sits 13.4% above its 200-day, Lumentum is -3.47% from its high on a 590.64% year, and 20 of 27 names with a 200-day are still above it. The damage is in the small development-stage tail: four names now carry negative trailing-year alpha, up from one.
Numbers are the settled October 9 close for all 28 names (Friday), one week after the October 2 scan. LAZR still carries no 200-day or trailing-year comparison (too-young regime). Comparison baseline is the October 2 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 5 of 28 up on the week; 15 of 28 closed green on Friday in a partial rebound; 20 of 27 names with a 200-day still above it, seven below (from six); no name at RSI 70 or higher (from three) |
| Leaders | Ciena (RSI 67.1, +14.93% week, back 13.4% above its 200-day), Fabrinet (63.1), Lumentum (62.6, -3.47% from its high, thesis intact), MACOM (62.6), Viavi (61.7) |
| Laggards | Aeluma (RSI 35.4, negative alpha), POET (38.9), Aehr (41, -21.05% week), Lightwave Logic (41.7), LightPath (42.2), AXT (44.8, -20.27% week) |
| The horizon check | Below the 200-day: Lightwave Logic, Fabrinet, Photronics (PLAB), LightPath, Applied Optoelectronics (new, -1.2%), POET, Aeluma. Negative trailing-year alpha: LightPath (-14.75), Lightwave Logic (-32.47), POET (-36.98), Aeluma (-46.91). AXT (1208.99% year) and Aehr (236.54% year) fell 20% but are still 10.5% and 18.6% above their 200-days |
| Caveat | The week has a dated cohort cause: on October 8 OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was about $50 billion (CNBC), and Bloomberg reported the worry "bled through to other artificial intelligence bets and chipmakers"; the desk's October 8 market brief counted optical at 0 for 28 that day. Friday's moves have no cause on file. The latest news checks are from October 8 or earlier, no articles or posts dated October 9 are on file, and the October 9 events calendar lists only Delta's earnings and Oracle's dividend. Friday's gains (Kopin +6.19%, Ciena +5.6%, Lumentum +5.22%) and losses (AXT -4.47%, Aeluma -4.44%) are cause unknown. |
What's Going On
The book reversed from a two-week rally into a cohort selloff. On October 8 CNBC confirmed that OpenAI had told investors it reached roughly $50 billion of annualized revenue at the end of September, and Bloomberg wrote that the worry spread to chipmakers. That day the October 8 market brief counted optical at 0 for 28, with a -5.8% median. Applied Optoelectronics (-13.58% on 2.42 times normal volume), MaxLinear (-12.72%) and AXT (-10.19%) fell most. Friday was a partial rebound: 15 of 28 closed green, led by Kopin (+6.19%), Ciena (+5.6%) and Lumentum (+5.22%), with no cause on file. On the week only Lumentum, Ciena, MACOM, Fabrinet and Jabil finished higher.
The two biggest weekly losers are deep pullbacks in parabolic trends, not breakdowns. AXT fell 20.27% to RSI 44.8 and is -52.18% from its high, but it is still 10.5% above its 200-day on a 1208.99% year. Seeking Alpha reported its October 8 slump of more than 10% as a third straight losing session, without naming a cause. Aehr fell 21.05% and sits 18.6% above its 200-day on a 236.54% year. On October 8 Aehr set November 2 for its fiscal first-quarter results (company release), which replaced the October 8 date in the provider calendar. On October 7 an X post reported about $6 million of follow-on orders from Aehr's lead hyperscale customer. The same poster blamed the selling more on Teradyne's new Titan HP burn-in system, a competitor to Aehr's Sonoma, than on the date confusion. That is one poster's reading, not a confirmed cause.
Ciena is the week's repair. It rose 13.85% on October 6 on 2.47 times volume; aggregators credited analyst target raises, and no company release is on file (October 6 market brief). On the week it gained 14.93%, its 30-day change is +33.07%, and it moved from exactly on its 200-day a week ago to 13.4% above it. At RSI 67.1 and 20.4% above its 20-day it is now the most extended name in the book. Lumentum held its trend: +1.65% on the week, 44.4% above its 200-day, with the desk's thesis rating intact.
The long-horizon damage is in the small development-stage group. Lightwave Logic (-16.47% year), POET (-20.98%) and LightPath (+1.25% year, alpha -14.75) joined Aeluma with negative trailing-year alpha, and all four sit under their 200-days. Applied Optoelectronics is the one large-cap change: it closed 1.2% under its 200-day ($110.96) on a 238.71% year. That is a long trend under test, not a broken one.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
- Breadth: 5 of 28 up on the week, after 25 of 28 closed green on October 2.
- Names below their 200-day: seven (LWLG, FN, PLAB, LPTH, AAOI, POET, ALMU) versus six on October 2. Applied Optoelectronics is new to the group; Fabrinet narrowed its gap from -12.8% to -8.7%.
- Negative trailing-year alpha: four (LPTH, LWLG, POET, ALMU) versus one (Aeluma) on October 2.
- Overbought: none at RSI 70 or higher, versus three on October 2 (FormFactor now 60.5, Viavi 61.7, MaxLinear 57.3). Oversold: two names under RSI 40 (Aeluma, POET), versus none.
- Leadership rotated: Ciena (RSI 67.1) replaced Lumentum, MACOM and Onto at the top; Onto fell 10.14% on the week to RSI 51.1.
- Ten names now sit below their 20-day, versus one (Jabil) on October 2.
How To Read The Board
Two layers again, and this week they disagree. The short layer flipped: ten names are under their 20-day, 23 of 28 lost ground on the week, and nothing is overbought. The long layer barely moved: 20 of 27 names with a 200-day are still above it, and 23 of 27 with a trailing year carry positive alpha. In names with triple- and quadruple-digit trailing years (AXT, Aehr, Sandisk, MaxLinear), a 10% to 20% week is a flag inside the trend. It is not a breakdown until the 200-day goes.
Names below their 200-day with positive alpha (Fabrinet, Photronics, Applied Optoelectronics) are trends under test. The four with negative alpha (Lightwave Logic, POET, Aeluma, LightPath) are small, mostly development-stage names: the business-quality veto applies, whatever the chart says.
Source limits: this board is price and RSI against the 20-, 50- and 200-day lines. It carries no insider dollars, no estimates and no filings. A low RSI here is screen evidence, not a setup. The desk's thesis rating covers only Lumentum (intact), Ciena (intact but priced), POET (intact) and Aeluma (no view).
Price Table
Rows are ordered by RSI, highest first. Tape cells are live values for the October 9 close; the Signal column is the desk's label.
| Stock | As of | Price ($) | RSI | SMA20 ($) | vs SMA20 (%) | 7D (%) | 30D (%) | 1Y (%) | vs SMA200 (%) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIEN | 2026-10-09 | 449.77 | 67.1 | 373.51 | 20.4 | 14.93 | 33.07 | 174.9 | 13.4 | 🟠 200-day reclaimed; extended over its 20-day |
| FN | 2026-10-09 | 486.28 | 63.1 | 426.48 | 14 | 4.87 | 16.26 | 27.22 | -8.7 | 🟡 below 200-day; gap narrowing |
| LITE | 2026-10-09 | 1103.36 | 62.6 | 980.56 | 12.5 | 1.65 | 11.57 | 590.64 | 44.4 | 🟢 near its high; thesis intact |
| MTSI | 2026-10-09 | 330.06 | 62.6 | 290.68 | 13.5 | 2.63 | 15.36 | 148.2 | 19 | 🟢 up on the week; above 200-day |
| VIAV | 2026-10-09 | 45.46 | 61.7 | 40.32 | 12.7 | -3.48 | 16.03 | 259.08 | 21.2 | 🟡 cooled from overbought |
| FORM | 2026-10-09 | 139.67 | 60.5 | 129.73 | 7.7 | -6.36 | 22.32 | 264.1 | 26.2 | 🟡 cooled from overbought |
| SMTC | 2026-10-09 | 187.3 | 59 | 178.99 | 4.6 | -3.89 | 14.25 | 167.42 | 56.2 | 🟢 uptrend; far above 200-day |
| MXL | 2026-10-09 | 96.16 | 57.3 | 88.88 | 8.2 | -9.22 | 34.47 | 502.51 | 72.5 | 🟡 pullback; still far above 200-day |
| CLS | 2026-10-09 | 362.16 | 53.4 | 356.33 | 1.6 | -6.5 | 8.56 | 39.41 | 8.8 | 🟡 pullback; above 200-day |
| COHR | 2026-10-09 | 312.62 | 51.7 | 305.01 | 2.5 | -7.25 | 3.01 | 155.51 | 6.8 | 🟡 pullback; above 200-day |
| ALAB | 2026-10-09 | 342.21 | 51.4 | 338.04 | 1.2 | -2.32 | 13.87 | 51.8 | 38.9 | 🟡 pullback; above 200-day |
| ONTO | 2026-10-09 | 294.53 | 51.1 | 286.77 | 2.7 | -10.14 | 5.79 | 115.61 | 14.4 | 🟡 pullback; above 200-day |
| OPTX | 2026-10-09 | 8.09 | 50.2 | 7.76 | 4.2 | -11.49 | 6.31 | 290.82 | 2.4 | 🟡 sitting on its 200-day |
| AAOI | 2026-10-09 | 109.64 | 49.9 | 105.98 | 3.5 | -5.15 | 1.58 | 238.71 | -1.2 | 🟡 just under 200-day; long trend under test |
| LAZR | 2026-10-09 | 45.02 | 49.9 | 44.85 | 0.4 | -6.75 | 0.56 | n/a | n/a | too young: no 200-day |
| GLW | 2026-10-09 | 156.68 | 49.7 | 155.15 | 1 | -4.57 | -6.99 | 79.7 | 2.9 | 🟡 thin cushion over 200-day |
| JBL | 2026-10-09 | 306.28 | 49.4 | 304.01 | 0.7 | 0.61 | -1.63 | 49.62 | 0.8 | 🟡 on its 200-day |
| TSEM | 2026-10-09 | 228.71 | 49.3 | 228.19 | 0.2 | -5.04 | 5.61 | 208.32 | 14.4 | 🟡 pullback; above 200-day |
| PLAB | 2026-10-09 | 29.62 | 46.7 | 29.81 | -0.6 | -5.94 | 1.79 | 23.47 | -17.3 | 🔴 downtrend; below 200-day |
| KOPN | 2026-10-09 | 4.46 | 46 | 4.68 | -4.7 | -9.16 | 4.69 | 38.51 | 20.2 | 🟡 pullback; Friday bounce, cause unknown |
| AXTI | 2026-10-09 | 68.46 | 44.8 | 74.5 | -8.1 | -20.27 | -0.65 | 1208.99 | 10.5 | 🟡 deep pullback in a parabolic trend |
| SNDK | 2026-10-09 | 1581.82 | 43.8 | 1697.46 | -6.8 | -8.03 | -10.34 | 1119.79 | 33.9 | 🟡 pullback in intact trend; on its 50-day |
| HIMX | 2026-10-09 | 13.3 | 42.5 | 14.09 | -5.6 | -12.73 | -4.66 | 48.77 | 6.4 | 🟡 pullback; above 200-day |
| LPTH | 2026-10-09 | 9.72 | 42.2 | 10.08 | -3.6 | -11.96 | -4.14 | 1.25 | -20.2 | 🔴 below 200-day; alpha turned negative |
| LWLG | 2026-10-09 | 4.97 | 41.7 | 5.21 | -4.7 | -12.81 | -5.69 | -16.47 | -32.3 | 🔴 collapse; development-stage (quality veto) |
| AEHR | 2026-10-09 | 84.64 | 41 | 94.77 | -10.7 | -21.05 | -11.43 | 236.54 | 18.6 | 🟡 deep pullback; above 200-day |
| POET | 2026-10-09 | 6.97 | 38.9 | 7.61 | -8.4 | -10.53 | -12.88 | -20.98 | -16.7 | 🔴 negative year; development-stage (quality veto) |
| ALMU | 2026-10-09 | 11.4 | 35.4 | 12.84 | -11.2 | -13.11 | -14.29 | -30.91 | -34.8 | 🔴 fails every long window; no-view |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): none.
Oversold (RSI 25-40) — 2 names: Aeluma (35.4) and POET (38.9). Both fail the long-horizon check (negative year, under the 200-day) and carry the development-stage quality veto: damage, not discount.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — 26 names. Near overbought (65-70): Ciena (67.1) only. The 40-45 band holds the week's casualties: Aehr (41), Lightwave Logic (41.7), LightPath (42.2), Himax (42.5), Sandisk (43.8) and AXT (44.8). Of those, Aehr, AXT, Sandisk and Himax are still above their 200-days with large positive years.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| LITE | Pullback toward its 20-day (980.56); the 914.94 support shelf below | Thesis intact, -3.47% from its high on a 590.64% year; the trend is not in question, the entry price is |
| CIEN | A flag that holds above its 200-day (396.64), ideally near the 425.66 shelf | Reclaimed the line by 13.4% on a 33.07% month; at 20.4% over its 20-day it is extended, not a fresh entry |
| AXTI | A base that holds its 200-day (61.94), with the 64.88 shelf as first support | 1208.99% year, -52.18% from its high after a 20.27% week; a flag candidate only once it stops falling |
| AEHR | A base above the 80.37 shelf, with the 200-day (71.36) as the line | 236.54% year; competition and calendar noise on X; report scheduled November 2 |
| SNDK | A base on its 50-day (1582.5, where it closed) | 1119.79% year, 33.9% above its 200-day; no zone until the selling stops |
| AAOI | A held close back above its 200-day (110.96) | 238.71% year; the line broke on the October 8 selloff; trend under test |
| FN | A held close above its 200-day (532.47) | Positive alpha (11.21), gap narrowed to -8.7%; the reclaim is the trigger |
| GLW | A breakout over the 171.3 pivot of a 7.4-week base, or a hold of the 200-day (152.34) | 79.7% year but a -17.92% three months; scheduled to report October 27 |
| MXL, VIAV, MTSI, SMTC | None: still far above their 200-days (19% to 72.5%) | Cooled from overbought but not yet a flag |
| LWLG, POET, ALMU, LPTH | No zone | Negative alpha, under the 200-day; business-quality veto on the small development-stage names |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| LITE, MTSI, SMTC | 🟢 Intact trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 200-day with large years; add only on a pullback to the 20-day |
| CIEN | 🟠 Extended reclaim | ⚠️ Avoid chasing | +14.93% week, 20.4% over its 20-day; analyst-target cause per aggregators, no company release |
| AXTI, AEHR, SNDK | 🟡 Deep pullback, intact year | 🔍 Watch | Flag stage; the 200-day is the line; dated items are a three-session slide (AXT) and an X-reported competitor launch (Aehr) |
| AAOI, FN, PLAB | 🟡 Below 200-day, positive alpha | 🔍 Watch | Trend under test; a held close above the line flips it |
| MXL, VIAV, FORM, ONTO, COHR, CLS, ALAB, TSEM, GLW, JBL, HIMX | 🟡 Pullback above 200-day | 🔍 Watch | Cohort selloff week; no flag has formed yet |
| KOPN, OPTX | 🟡 Small caps on the line | 🔍 Watch | Kopin's +6.19% Friday is cause unknown |
| LWLG, POET, ALMU, LPTH | 🔴 Negative alpha | ❌ Don't buy | Quality veto; all four under the 200-day |
| LAZR | 🟡 Too young | 🔍 Watch | No 200-day or trailing-year comparison yet |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether the October 8 selloff extends | Optical went 0 for 28 that day on the OpenAI revenue report (CNBC); Friday's 15-of-28 rebound is one session |
| Ciena holding above its 200-day (396.64) | The book's only full reclaim this week; extended at RSI 67.1 |
| Applied Optoelectronics at its 200-day (110.96) | The one large-cap trend that broke the line this week |
| AXT and Aehr basing above their 200-days | Two 20% weeks inside triple- and quadruple-digit years; a base is the setup, continued selling is not |
| Scheduled reports | MaxLinear October 22, Celestica October 26, Corning October 27, Viavi and FormFactor October 28, AXT and Sandisk October 29, Aehr and Fabrinet November 2 (provider and company dates) |
| The negative-alpha count (4) | It rose from one; a fifth name would mean the damage is spreading beyond the small development-stage tail |
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position, relative volume): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-10-09 close — optical-supply-chain.
- OpenAI revenue report and cohort selloff: CNBC, October 8 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/open-ai-revenue-nvidia-oracle-coreweave.html (capture 2026-10-08-cnbc-nvidia-oracle-coreweave-and-other-ai-stocks-sink-on-openai-r-108377571); Bloomberg, October 8 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-08/us-stock-futures-slip-on-mounting-energy-shock-ai-bubble-fears (capture 2026-10-08-bloomberg-nasdaq-100-drops-1-4-as-openai-warning-deepens-bubble-fears-tml5n5kjh6v400).
- Day counts and October 6 / October 8 single-name moves: the October 6 and October 8 market briefs — 2026-10-06-market-brief, 2026-10-08-market-brief.
- AXT: Seeking Alpha, October 8 — https://seekingalpha.com/news/4651593-axt-slumps-10-pushing-losing-streak-to-three-sessions (news check latest, fetched 2026-10-08).
- Aehr: company release, October 8 — https://www.aehr.com/2026/10/aehr-test-systems-to-announce-first-quarter-fiscal-2027-financial-results-on-november-2-2026/; X posts, October 7 — https://x.com/KawzInvests/status/2107863012111499494 and https://x.com/KawzInvests/status/2107876207446384655 (captures 2026-10-07-kawzinvests-*); superseded calendar row 2026-10-08-aehr-earnings.
- Cause checks for October 9: news checks under stocks<SYM>/news/latest.json
(latest fetched 2026-10-08), event files 2026-10-09-dal-earnings and2026-10-09-orcl-dividend.md, and articles,tweets/,filings/` (none dated 2026-10-09). - Scheduled reports:
research/stock-events/rows for MXL, CLS, GLW, VIAV, FORM, AXTI, SNDK, AEHR, FN (provider estimates unless noted). - Prior scan for comparison: 2026-10-02-optical-supply-chain.
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