Defensive Scan
Defensive Scan
Data as-of 2026-08-14 close — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar this scan.
HD posted the cut's steepest reversal this scan: RSI 61.3 → 48.2 (-13.1 points) on a -4.71% week, and its regime downgraded to "downtrend." ECL dropped almost as hard — RSI 60.8 → 48.7 (-12.1) — though its regime held at "uptrend," a tape/structure disagreement running the other direction. XLU staged the cut's biggest recovery, RSI 36.1 → 48.2 (+12.1), leaving behind last scan's only sub-40 print even as its regime classifier stayed at "basing" through the whole move. TGT crossed above RSI 70 for the first time this cut has shown — 67.2 → 72.3 — now the cut's lone overbought name, while T's regime finally upgraded out of "downtrend," resolving a mismatch flagged the last two scans running.
Source: defensive.json. Latest bar 2026-08-14 for every name in this cut. Prior scan: 2026-08-08-defensive-scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Two sharp reversals in opposite directions — HD and ECL both broke down while XLU staged the cut's biggest recovery — and TGT crossed into overbought for the first time this cut has shown |
| Leaders | TGT (RSI 72.3↑, newly overbought, cut's highest print); T (66.2, regime finally upgraded out of "downtrend"); VZ (65.6, holds its basing read) |
| Laggards | HD (48.2, -13.1-point drop, regime downgraded to "downtrend"); ECL (48.7, -12.1-point drop, regime held at "uptrend"); HRL (46.4, weakest print in the cut) |
| Key insight | PPC's regime cleared "collapse" for the first time in several scans — the cut now has zero "collapse"-tagged names — even as LOW's RSI improved without a regime upgrade, the same disagreement flagged twice running |
What's Going On
HD and ECL both broke down this scan, but their regime classifiers disagreed on what it meant. HD's RSI fell from 61.3 to 48.2 (-13.1 points) on -4.71% over the week and -0.83% in a single day (change7d, change1d per defensive.json), and its regime downgraded from "pullback" to "downtrend." ECL's RSI dropped almost as far — 60.8 to 48.7 (-12.1 points) — but its regime classifier held at "uptrend," unchanged from last scan.
XLU moved the opposite direction from both of them. RSI climbed from 36.1 to 48.2 (+12.1 points, the cut's biggest gain) on +1.61% over the week, clearing the sub-40 read that made it last scan's lone laggard. Its regime classifier read "basing" both before the drop and after the recovery — the label never moved through either leg of the swing.
TGT crossed above RSI 70 for the first time this cut has shown this cycle: 67.2 to 72.3 on +12.56% over 30 days (change30d), still tagged "uptrend" but now genuinely extended. T's RSI climbed from 58.7 to 66.2 on +16.15% over 30 days, and its regime classifier finally moved from "downtrend" to "pullback" — resolving the mismatch flagged for T the last two scans running. VZ climbed alongside it, 59.3 to 65.6, holding its "basing" tag.
PPC's regime cleared "collapse" this scan, moving to "downtrend," on a modest RSI gain (44.4 → 50.1). The cut now carries zero "collapse"-tagged names for the first time in several scans. LOW remains the one holdout: RSI eased from 59.9 to 53.6 this scan, and its regime stayed at "downtrend" for a third straight scan — the same tag it has carried since well before last scan's RSI jump, unresolved either way.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-08-08)
- HD posted the cut's steepest reversal and a regime downgrade. RSI 61.3 → 48.2 (-13.1), regime "pullback" → "downtrend."
- ECL dropped almost as hard but held its regime. RSI 60.8 → 48.7 (-12.1), regime stayed "uptrend."
- XLU staged the cut's biggest recovery. RSI 36.1 → 48.2 (+12.1) — no longer the cut's only sub-40 print; regime unchanged at "basing" throughout.
- TGT crossed above RSI 70 for the first time this cycle. RSI 67.2 → 72.3, now the cut's lone overbought name.
- T's regime finally upgraded out of "downtrend." RSI 58.7 → 66.2, regime now "pullback" — resolving the mismatch flagged the last two scans.
- WMT and TSN both upgraded from "downtrend" to "pullback."
- PPC's regime cleared "collapse." RSI 44.4 → 50.1, regime now "downtrend" — the cut has zero "collapse" names for the first time in several scans.
- HRL downgraded from "uptrend" to "pullback." RSI 50.6 → 46.4.
- LOW remains the one holdout on regime. Still "downtrend" for a third straight scan; RSI eased to 53.6 from 59.9.
- No stale bars this scan. Every name carries a 2026-08-14 close.
- Universe unchanged. Same 15 tickers as the August 8 cut — no entrants or dropouts.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions — under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought. vs SMA20 is the price gap to the 20-day average. vs VWAP is the premium over the average price paid by current holders — useful for spotting how much of a move is unrealized gain. Trend combines direction/strength with a cross signal: GC (golden cross) is structurally healthier than DC (death cross). This scan's HD/ECL pair is the clearest example of why regime and RSI both matter: both names posted similarly sharp RSI drops, but only HD's regime classifier moved to reflect it — ECL's held at "uptrend" through the same size decline. Read the size of the move alongside whether the regime label actually changed, not just the RSI number on its own.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | vs VWAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRL | $24.54 | 46.4 | -2.2% | -1.9% | -2.4% | +25.8% | -16.9% | weak-down GC | +6.7% |
| HD | $338.86 | 48.2 | -0.5% | -4.7% | -0.8% | +14.8% | -19.9% | weak-up DC | -3.5% |
| XLU | $44.31 | 48.2 | -0.6% | +1.6% | -2.0% | +1.7% | -7.9% | down GC | +0.7% |
| ECL | $276.11 | 48.7 | -0.4% | -3.2% | +2.2% | +11.8% | -10.7% | strong-up GC | +2.5% |
| PPC | $27.90 | 50.1 | -0.5% | +1.6% | -1.8% | +1.2% | -44.2% | strong-down DC | -22.1% |
| TSN | $58.17 | 50.1 | -0.1% | +0.2% | +1.2% | -10.8% | -18.8% | weak-up DC | -0.1% |
| MCD | $272.83 | 51.2 | +1.0% | -0.6% | +3.0% | -0.6% | -20.3% | strong-down DC | -7.5% |
| COST | $961.10 | 55.0 | +1.4% | +1.4% | +5.0% | -8.2% | -12.3% | up DC | +1.5% |
| WMT | $115.27 | 55.7 | +2.8% | +3.1% | +2.4% | -12.3% | -14.4% | weak-up DC | -0.2% |
| LOW | $218.47 | 53.6 | +2.4% | -2.2% | +4.9% | +0.6% | -25.5% | weak-up DC | -8.2% |
| SBUX | $107.69 | 58.0 | +2.4% | +2.0% | +2.5% | +0.8% | -0.7% | strong-up GC | +16.9% |
| XLP | $86.09 | 57.0 | +1.1% | +1.1% | +3.1% | +2.4% | -4.6% | strong-up GC | +6.0% |
| VZ | $48.48 | 65.6 | +4.2% | +3.0% | +13.2% | +6.3% | -6.7% | strong-up GC | +12.9% |
| T | $24.89 | 66.2 | +5.1% | +4.6% | +16.2% | +5.0% | -17.5% | up DC | +1.4% |
| TGT | $154.48 | 72.3 ↑ | +6.6% | +4.0% | +12.6% | +28.1% | -0.6% | strong-up GC | +46.7% |
Tier Analysis
Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold band (RSI 25-40)
None. HRL (46.4) is the closest to it and still sits well clear of the line.
RSI 40+ (everyone else)
- Downtrend-regime tier: PPC, HD, LOW — HD newly downgraded this scan; LOW unchanged for a third scan; PPC cleared "collapse" into this tier.
- Pullback-regime tier: T, WMT, MCD, COST, HRL, TSN — T, WMT, and TSN all upgraded from "downtrend" this scan; HRL downgraded from "uptrend."
- Basing-regime tier: VZ, SBUX, XLP, XLU — XLP downgraded from "uptrend"; XLU's regime held through both its drop last scan and its recovery this scan.
- Uptrend-regime tier: ECL, TGT — TGT is now extended within this tier, above RSI 70.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRL | $24.54 | <$24.21 (support shelf) | 46.4 | -2.4% | Weakest print in the cut, sitting right on its shelf |
| HD | $338.86 | <$333.38 (support shelf) | 48.2 | -0.8% | Regime downgraded to "downtrend" this scan after a 13-point RSI drop |
| XLU | $44.31 | ~$43.87 (support shelf, essentially at it) | 48.2 | -2.0% | Cut's biggest recovery this scan; regime unchanged at "basing" throughout |
| LOW | $218.47 | <$216.36 (support shelf) | 53.6 | +4.9% | Regime still reads "downtrend" for a third straight scan; RSI eased this scan but stays mid-range |
| TGT | $154.48 | Extended — shelf far below at $89.04 | 72.3 | +12.6% | Newly overbought; wait for a pullback rather than chase |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | XLP, SBUX, XLU | Basing structure, not extended, no broken-structure flags |
| 🔒 HOLD | VZ, ECL | Uptrend/basing regime, cooled or steady, not extended |
| 🔍 WATCH | T, WMT, MCD, COST, HRL, TSN | Pullback-regime names, mixed signal, no confirmed direction |
| ⚠️ AVOID / DON'T CHASE | TGT | Freshly crossed above RSI 70 this scan |
| ❌ AVOID / FALLING KNIFE | PPC, HD, LOW | "Downtrend" regime — the most structurally damaged names in the cut |
What To Watch Next
- HD and ECL both broke down hard this scan in opposite regime directions (HD downgraded, ECL held) — does either resolve toward the other, or do they keep diverging?
- XLU staged the cut's biggest recovery while its regime classifier never moved — does the regime finally confirm the swing, or was this a one-scan bounce?
- TGT crossed into overbought for the first time this cut has shown — does it extend further, or give the move back?
- LOW's RSI stayed in the mid-50s while its regime stays "downtrend" for a third straight scan — when does the structural read change, if it ever does?
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-14 close — defensive.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.