Defensive Scan
Defensive Scan
Data as-of 2026-07-17 close.
COST just had its biggest reversal of the cycle — RSI 36.3 → 47.3, up +2.7% for the week, after being flagged as "the sector's new weakest name" with no catalyst for three straight scans. T's relief bounce extended for a second scan running (RSI 40.8 → 49.5), though the trend still hasn't confirmed a turn. LOW stayed flat and broken (strong-down DC), and MCD cooled further into the same trend read. For the first time in recent scans, nothing in this group is below RSI 40 — the whole sector cleared its worst level.
Source: defensive.json. Latest bar 2026-07-17 for every name in this cut. Prior scan: 2026-07-11-defensive-scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Mixed but improving — COST's multi-scan weakness reversed hard, T's relief bounce extended, though neither shows a confirmed trend flip yet |
| Leaders this window | TGT (RSI 61.4, best continuation in the sector for three-plus scans running); HRL (61.2, steady climber); XLP (55.3, unchanged ETF exposure) |
| Laggards | LOW (RSI 41.4, still `strong-down DC`, the sector's one clearly broken name); MCD (42.7, now also `strong-down DC` after cooling from its prior bounce); TSN (45.8, drifting) |
| Key insight | COST's RSI 36.3→47.3 turnaround is the single biggest reversal in the sector this scan — the name flagged "new weakest, no catalyst, third straight scan of drift" on July 11 just posted its best week in a month |
What's Going On
The clearest development in this week's defensive read is COST's reversal. RSI moved from 36.3 on July 11 to 47.3 today, up +2.69% over the past week (7-day change per defensive.json) — the name flagged as the sector's new weakest print with "no bounce catalyst for a third straight scan" just posted its best stretch since. The trend classifier still reads down with a golden cross flagged (golden cross true, death cross false), a mixed signal that hasn't fully confirmed either way.
T's relief bounce kept extending. RSI moved 40.8 → 49.5, +3.22% over the past week, but the underlying trend is unchanged: still strong-down DC, still -26.79% from its 52-week high. That's the same "wait for the golden cross" read flagged twice running now.
LOW, which "rolled over from recovery" last scan, held roughly flat this week (RSI 41.1 → 41.4) and remains strong-down DC — the sector's one name carrying no positive signal at all. MCD gave back more ground too, RSI 47.1 → 42.7, and is now also trending strong-down DC rather than the steadier read it carried into July.
TGT extended its recovery for a third straight scan (RSI 57.0 → 61.4), and XLU/XLP remain the cleanest, steadiest exposure in the group — both basically unchanged, still the standing accumulate picks.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-11)
- COST reversed hard. RSI 36.3 → 47.3, +2.69% over the past week (change7d) — the sector's biggest single turnaround this scan.
- T's relief bounce extended for a second straight scan. RSI 40.8 → 49.5, +3.22% over the past week, still
strong-down DC— no confirmed reversal yet. - LOW stayed flat and broken. RSI 41.1 → 41.4, still
strong-down DC, -28.78% from its 52-week high (worse than the -27.8% flagged last scan). - MCD cooled further. RSI 47.1 → 42.7, -2.51% over the past week, now also carrying a
strong-down DCread. - TGT extended its recovery. RSI 57.0 → 61.4, +3.3% over the past week — the sector's best continuation for a third scan running.
- VZ improved meaningfully. RSI 39.6 → 49.7, +3.49% over the past week — a real move off its prior drift.
- WMT improved slightly. RSI 44.2 → 46.5, roughly flat on price.
- HRL continued climbing. RSI 54.9 → 61.2, +3.89% over the past week.
- PPC ticked up modestly. RSI 48.1 → 54.2, still
weak-up DC, -42.42% from its 52-week high (a touch better than the -44.1% flagged last scan) — no confirmed reversal. - XLU and XLP are essentially unchanged again — still the cleanest, steadiest defensives in the sector.
- SBUX cooled slightly. RSI 60.8 → 54.6, -0.49% over the past week.
- Universe unchanged. Same 15 tickers as the July 11 cut — no entrants or dropouts this scan.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions — under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought. vs SMA20 is the price gap to the 20-day average. vs VWAP is the premium over the average price paid by current holders — useful for spotting how much of a move is unrealized gain. Trend combines direction/strength with a cross signal: GC (golden cross) is structurally healthier than DC (death cross). A stock bouncing off a weak RSI while still marked strong-down DC — like T and LOW this cycle — is a relief move inside a broken structure, not a confirmed reversal; wait for the cross to flip before treating it as a real entry.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | vs VWAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW | $208.73 | 41.4 | -3.8% | -1.4% | -6.1% | -17.2% | -28.8% | strong-down DC | -13.3% |
| MCD | $267.71 | 42.7 | -1.8% | -2.5% | -3.9% | -12.2% | -21.7% | strong-down DC | -10.0% |
| TSN | $57.77 | 45.8 | 0.0% | -0.1% | +4.2% | -8.5% | -16.9% | down GC | -0.0% |
| WMT | $114.24 | 46.5 | 0.0% | +0.3% | -2.5% | -10.5% | -15.5% | down GC | -0.6% |
| COST | $940.87 | 47.3 | +0.1% | +2.7% | -1.1% | -5.6% | -14.2% | down GC | -0.8% |
| T | $21.81 | 49.5 | +2.1% | +3.2% | +0.4% | -15.6% | -26.8% | strong-down DC | -12.1% |
| VZ | $43.59 | 49.7 | +1.0% | +3.5% | -2.3% | -4.5% | -15.7% | weak-down GC | +2.5% |
| XLU | $45.17 | 50.2 | -0.5% | -0.5% | +1.6% | -0.6% | -5.5% | strong-up GC | +3.2% |
| HD | $338.87 | 50.7 | -1.1% | -1.3% | +1.4% | -2.7% | -20.6% | weak-up DC | -4.0% |
| ECL | $272.83 | 50.9 | -1.1% | -0.5% | +1.4% | -0.8% | -11.8% | up DC | +1.5% |
| PPC | $29.11 | 54.2 | +3.5% | +3.0% | +6.6% | -11.9% | -42.4% | weak-up DC | -21.9% |
| SBUX | $105.49 | 54.6 | +1.4% | -0.5% | +4.8% | +7.2% | -3.4% | strong-up GC | +15.9% |
| XLP | $85.19 | 55.3 | +1.4% | +1.3% | +3.0% | +4.1% | -5.5% | strong-up GC | +5.4% |
| HRL | $25.39 | 61.2 | +2.4% | +3.9% | +6.4% | +20.5% | -14.7% | strong-up GC | +10.1% |
| TGT | $139.60 | 61.4 | +4.1% | +3.3% | +6.8% | +8.3% | -3.3% | strong-up GC | +34.2% |
Tier Analysis
Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
None. For the first time in recent scans, nothing in this sector is below RSI 41 — the whole group cleared its worst level, including COST and VZ, which were the two sub-40 names last scan.
RSI 40+ (everyone else)
- Still soft (RSI 41-46): LOW, MCD, TSN, WMT. LOW is the sole clearly broken name (
strong-down DC). MCD flipped to the same read this cycle. - Basing / improving (RSI 47-51): COST, T, VZ, XLU, HD, ECL. COST's turnaround and T's extended relief bounce are the two real stories here — neither has confirmed a trend flip.
- Momentum (RSI 54+): PPC, SBUX, XLP, HRL, TGT. TGT and HRL are the sector's cleanest continuations.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLU | $45.17 | <$44.80 (support shelf) | 50.2 | +1.6% | Cleanest defensive exposure, unchanged for multiple scans, GC intact |
| XLP | $85.19 | <$84.21 (support shelf) | 55.3 | +3.0% | Steady staples ETF exposure, GC intact, not extended |
| TGT | $139.60 | <$90.95 (support shelf, well below) | 61.4 | +6.8% | Best continuation in the sector for three scans running |
| COST | $940.87 | <$931.94 (support shelf) | 47.3 | -1.1% | Biggest reversal in the scan this week; trend still mixed (`down` but golden cross intact) |
| LOW | $208.73 | No support shelf identified | 41.4 | -6.1% | Sector's one clearly broken name — `strong-down DC`, no reversal signal |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | XLU, XLP | Best risk/reward — basing on SMAs, GC intact, not extended vs VWAP, unchanged for multiple scans |
| 🔒 HOLD | HRL, TGT, SBUX, ECL | Recoveries/uptrends holding; don't add at current levels |
| 🔍 WATCH | T, VZ, WMT, COST, TSN, HD, PPC, MCD | Split between "bounced but unconfirmed" (T/COST/VZ) and "still drifting" (WMT/TSN/HD/PPC/MCD) |
| ❌ BROKEN / AVOID | LOW | Only clearly broken name in the sector — `strong-down DC` persists, no reversal signal |
What To Watch Next
- COST just posted its best week in a month after three straight scans of drift — does this turn into a confirmed reversal, or was it a one-week bounce?
- T's relief bounce is now two scans running without the trend flipping to GC — does the next scan finally confirm, or does it stall again?
- LOW remains the sector's one unambiguously broken name — any sign of stabilization, or does the
strong-down DCstructure keep deepening? - MCD flipped to
strong-down DCthis scan after a steadier read into July — is this the start of a real breakdown or a normal pullback?
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-17 close — *.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.