Defensive Scan

Scan

Defensive Scan

Scan symbols 15
TVZWMTEMCDCOSTHRLTSNPPCECLHDELOWESBUXTGTEXLPXLU
Watchlists 1
@defensive
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 34 rows · screens, not recommendations

The defensive watchlist is deeply bifurcated — true defensives (WMT/MCD/COST/T) are all oversold/weak (RSI 37-49) while the consumer-recovery names (TGT/SBUX/HD) and the week's standout (HRL +26.5% 30D, RSI 80) got the risk-on rotation bid; XLP/XLU ETFs basing at RSI 56/66 confirm the sector is mixed, not collectively on offense.

Source: defensive.json. Latest bar 2026-06-26.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Bifurcated — consumer-recovery plays (TGT/SBUX/HD) + HRL ripping; true defensives (WMT/MCD/COST) still in downtrend; telecoms (T/VZ) weak; PPC collapsed
Leaders HRL (RSI 79.7, +26.5% 30D, +12.7% vs VWAP); TGT (RSI 65.4, +9.4% 30D, +36.8% vs VWAP); SBUX (RSI 61.9, +21.2% 3M); ECL (RSI 70.2, +8.3% 30D)
Laggards T (RSI 41.4, -8.7% 30D, -21.1% 3M, DC, -11.4% vs VWAP); PPC (RSI 49.1, -22.1% 3M, collapse, -43.4% from ATH); MCD (RSI 40.7, -11.2% 3M, strong-down DC)
Key insight XLU (RSI 66, +4.9% vs SMA200) and XLP (RSI 56, +5.2% vs SMA200) are the cleanest defensive buys — basing on both SMAs, not extended; the consumer-recovery names (TGT/SBUX) are extended vs VWAP (+37/+16%) and not the value entry they appear

Price Table

Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi% Trend Signal
T $22.72 41.4 ↓ -1.5% +0.2% -8.7% -21.1% -23.7% strong-down DC ❌ Broken
PPC $28.61 49.1 +0.3% +0.3% -1.4% -22.1% -43.4% strong-down DC ❌ Broken
MCD $269.76 40.7 ↓ -2.8% -3.5% -3.3% -11.2% -21.1% strong-down DC ❌ Avoid
WMT $115.69 37.5 ↓ -2.0% -1.7% -2.4% -5.7% -14.4% down GC 🔍 Watch (oversold bounce setup)
COST $952.54 41.2 -1.3% -0.5% -5.1% -3.0% -13.1% down GC 🔍 Watch
TSN $58.55 47.7 +1.9% +3.8% -10.6% -7.6% -15.7% down GC ⚠️ Caution
VZ $46.54 49.2 +0.2% +0.6% -3.5% -6.1% -10.0% weak-down GC 🔍 Watch
LOW $222.48 53.9 +3.1% +2.5% +2.6% -2.9% -24.1% strong-down DC ⚠️ Caution (below SMA200)
XLP $84.71 56.1 +1.7% +1.2% +0.9% +4.3% -6.0% strong-up GC 📈 Accumulate (clean basing)
SBUX $104.60 61.9 +5.2% +2.4% +2.5% +21.2% -3.9% strong-up GC 🔒 Hold (+15.6% vs VWAP)
XLU $46.20 65.9 +4.3% +2.2% +3.0% +2.0% -3.4% strong-up GC 📈 Accumulate (basing, +6.4% vs VWAP)
TGT $140.39 65.4 +7.9% +5.9% +9.4% +18.3% -1.7% strong-up GC 🔒 Hold (+36.8% vs VWAP — don't add)
HD $348.86 67.1 +7.6% +4.4% +10.6% +9.3% -18.3% weak-up DC 🔍 Watch (below SMA200, +27.7% vs SMA200 not right — -0.9% vs SMA200)
ECL $283.65 70.2 +7.2% +4.3% +8.3% +8.8% -8.3% up DC ⚠️ Extended (+5.8% vs VWAP, but DC — careful)
HRL $26.51 79.7 ↑ +9.2% +7.0% +26.5% +16.5% -16.8% up DC 🔴 Overbought (+12.7% vs VWAP, RSI 80)

Tier Analysis

Oversold / Broken (RSI < 42, weak trends)

  • T ($22.72, RSI 41) — AT&T: strong-down, DC, -11% vs SMA200, -21.1% 3M, -23.7% from ATH, -11.4% vs VWAP. Structural decline in telecom; no reversal signal. Avoid.
  • PPC ($28.61, RSI 49) — Pilgrim's Pride: collapse, DC, -22.6% vs SMA200, -22.1% 3M, -43.4% from ATH, -25.1% vs VWAP. Poultry cost/demand pressures. Avoid.
  • MCD ($269.76, RSI 41) — McDonald's: strong-down, DC, -10.3% vs SMA200, -11.2% 3M, -9.7% vs VWAP. Consumer spending pressure + value-menu wars. Avoid.
  • WMT ($115.69, RSI 38) — Walmart: down regime, GC still intact, -0.7% vs SMA200. Closest to an oversold-quality setup: RSI 38, on the SMA200, GC in place. Watch for a bounce but -2.4% 30D isn't showing a floor yet.
  • COST ($952.54, RSI 41) — Costco: down, GC, -0.3% vs SMA200, -5.1% 30D. Similar to WMT — on the SMA200 but no bounce catalyst. Watch.

Neutral / Mixed (RSI 48–57)

  • TSN ($58.55, RSI 48) — Tyson: down, GC, 0% vs SMA200, -10.6% 30D. Meat processing margin squeeze. Watch but uninspiring.
  • VZ ($46.54, RSI 49) — Verizon: weak-down, GC, +6.6% vs SMA200. Basing; +7.9% vs VWAP. Not broken, not exciting. Dividend yield play; accumulate if that's the thesis.
  • LOW ($222.48, RSI 54) — Lowe's: strong-down, DC, -8.3% vs SMA200. Housing-dependent; -24.1% from ATH. Relief bounce (+2.6% 30D) in a downtrend; wait for SMA200 reclaim.
  • XLP ($84.71, RSI 56) — Consumer Staples ETF: strong-up, GC, +5.2% vs SMA200, +5.1% vs VWAP. Cleanest defensive buy: basing on SMA20/50/200 all, not extended. Best diversified defensive entry.

Leaders / Extended (RSI 62+)

  • SBUX ($104.60, RSI 62) — Starbucks: strong-up, GC, +14.4% vs SMA200, +21.2% 3M, +15.6% vs VWAP. Recovery intact but not cheap — +15.6% vs VWAP means add on pullback only.
  • XLU ($46.20, RSI 66) — Utilities ETF: strong-up, GC, +4.9% vs SMA200, +6.4% vs VWAP. Not extended; the AI-power bid + defensive rotation = steady accumulate target.
  • TGT ($140.39, RSI 65) — Target: strong-up, GC, +31.2% vs SMA200, +36.8% vs VWAP (poc at $88 — price is well above value area). The weekly +5.9% was strong but TGT is NOT cheap here; near ATH (-1.7%), +18.3% 3M.
  • HD ($348.86, RSI 67) — Home Depot: weak-up, DC, -0.9% vs SMA200, +10.6% 30D. Reclaiming the 200 but DC still in place. Watch for the GC confirmation.
  • ECL ($283.65, RSI 70) — Ecolab: up, DC, +5.5% vs SMA200, +8.3% 30D. Near the top of its range (-8.3% from ATH), DC still in place — hold if owned, but pausing here makes sense.
  • HRL ($26.51, RSI 80) — Hormel: RSI 80 (overbought), +26.5% 30D, +12.7% vs VWAP. DC still in place; the run is extreme for a food staple. Don't chase; wait for RSI < 60 reset.

Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI 30D% Setup
XLU $46.20 <$45 (SMA20 retest) 65.9 +3.0% Utilities ETF; GC; +4.9% vs SMA200; +6.4% vs VWAP; clean defensive accumulate
XLP $84.71 <$83.5 (SMA20 retest) 56.1 +0.9% Consumer staples ETF; GC; +5.2% vs SMA200; +5.1% vs VWAP; basing well
WMT $115.69 <$114 37.5 -2.4% RSI 38, on SMA200, GC; lone oversold-quality large-cap; contrarian watch only — needs a turn signal
VZ $46.54 <$45 49.2 -3.5% Telecom yield play; GC; +6.6% vs SMA200; basing; only for dividend-focused accounts
SBUX $104.60 <$100 (SMA20 retest) 61.9 +2.5% Consumer recovery; GC; +14.4% vs SMA200; pullback to SMA20 = add; not at current price

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
📈 ACCUMULATE XLU, XLP Best risk/reward in the scan — basing on SMAs, GC, not extended vs VWAP; defensive + AI-power utility bid
🔒 HOLD SBUX, TGT, ECL, HD Consumer/cyclical recovery running; thesis intact; don't sell but don't add at these VWAP premiums
🔍 WATCH WMT, COST, VZ, LOW WMT/COST on SMA200 (RSI 37-41) = contrarian bounce setups; VZ/LOW = recovery candidates needing catalyst
⚠️ EXTENDED / DON'T CHASE TGT, HRL, ECL TGT +36.8% vs VWAP; HRL RSI 80; ECL at range top — all need pullback before adding
❌ BROKEN / AVOID T, PPC, MCD Structural downtrends, DC, below SMA200; no reversal signal

What Changed This Week (EOW)

  • Consumer-recovery names outperformed — TGT +5.9% 7D (near ATH), SBUX +2.4% 7D (+21.2% 3M), HD +4.4% 7D; the "defensive" label isn't quite right for this cohort — they got the rotation bid alongside healthcare.
  • HRL anomaly — +7% 7D, +26.5% 30D, RSI 80. Hormel is a food-staple stock printing equity-bull moves; likely tariff/supply-chain narrative driving the bid. DC still in place means the long-term structure hasn't turned — the move is aggressive near-term.
  • True defensives (WMT/MCD/COST) still underperforming — All three down 30D and still in downtrends; WMT RSI 38 is the only name approaching a contrarian setup.
  • XLU held its bid — +2.2% 7D, RSI 66, GC; utilities are quietly outperforming (AI power demand + defensive rotation) without being extended (+6.4% vs VWAP).
  • T and PPC continued structural declines — No change to the collapse thesis; both printing lower.

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
XLU RSI 66 with GC and only +6.4% vs VWAP Utilities are the best true-defensive accumulate — AI power demand + defensive bid without the froth
WMT RSI 38 on SMA200 with GC intact The most oversold quality name in the scan — needs a turn signal but setup is forming
TGT +36.8% vs VWAP (poc at $88) Consumer-recovery has fully re-rated; TGT at current level is a momentum trade, not a value setup

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Lumping "defensives" as one cohort TGT/SBUX/HD are consumer-recovery, not defensive — they move with the risk-on bid; true defensives (WMT/MCD) are separate
Chasing HRL after a 26% 30D run RSI 80 + DC in place = momentum spike in a structurally weak stock; fades hard

Open Questions

  • WMT RSI 38 on SMA200: Is this the consolidation floor or a pre-earnings flush lower?
  • Will XLU continue to catch the AI-power/defensive dual bid, or does it stall once GC is priced in?
  • HD and LOW: Does the housing sector provide a catalyst to flip DC → GC, or do they stay in relief-rally mode?
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Jun 25 ScanDefensive Scan Jun 16 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 7 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 11 ScanDefensive Scan Jun 20 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 17 ScanDefensive Scan May 29 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 25 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 28 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 31 ScanDefensive Scan

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