Defensive Scan
Defensive Scan
Data as-of 2026-07-31 close.
The whole cut cooled at once. T and VZ gave back a two-scan overbought run — T's RSI fell from 72.4 to 55.3 and VZ's from 70.6 to 59.8 — while PPC posted the sharpest single move, RSI 58.3 → 40.9 on a -6.75% single day, with its regime downgraded to "collapse." The bigger structural story is LOW: last scan's "first real reversal signal" (trend flipped to weak-up DC) fully unwound — RSI 55.9 → 45.7, trend back to strong-down DC — even though the thesis flag on file still reads "intact." For the first time in several scans, no name sits above RSI 64 or below RSI 40.
Source: defensive.json. Latest bar 2026-07-31 for every name in this cut. Prior scan: 2026-07-28-defensive-scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Broad cooling across the board — 13 of 15 names saw RSI fall this scan, T and VZ gave back a two-scan overbought run, and the cut now sits in its tightest range (40-64) in several sessions |
| Leaders | TGT (RSI 63.6, holds the top after cooling only slightly); VZ (59.8, down from overbought but still the second-strongest read); T (55.3, cooled hard off two scans of gains) |
| Laggards | PPC (RSI 40.9, "collapse" regime, -45.9% off its 52-week high); XLU (40.4, dropped from 51.6 last scan); WMT (44.3, still carrying a death-cross structure) |
| Key insight | LOW's reversal signal from last scan — trend flipped to weak-up DC, thesis marked "intact" — fully unwound this scan; the trend classifier now reads strong-down DC again, confirming the regime's "downtrend" read rather than the reversal |
What's Going On
Telecom gave back its run. T's RSI fell from 72.4 to 55.3, and VZ's from 70.6 to 59.8 — both cooling off what had been two consecutive scans of overbought strength. Both still carry the two strongest 30-day prints in the cut (change30d per defensive.json: T +15.04%, VZ +13.37%), just off their recent peak reads rather than reversing outright.
PPC posted the sector's sharpest single move. RSI fell from 58.3 to 40.9 on a -6.75% single day (change1d), with the regime classifier now reading "collapse" — the most structurally damaged name in this cut, sitting -45.89% off its 52-week high.
LOW is the session's clearest reversal-of-a-reversal. Last scan flagged its first real reversal signal — RSI up to 55.9, trend flipped from strong-down DC to weak-up DC. This scan gave all of that back: RSI down to 45.7, trend back to strong-down DC, even though the thesis flag on file still reads "intact" — a case where the tape has re-broken but the desk's own thesis call hasn't caught down to it yet.
XLU dropped the second-most in the cut: RSI 51.6 → 40.4, -4.19% over the week (change7d), giving back essentially all of its prior strength. TSN gave back most of its own prior jump, RSI 66.3 → 46.6. Away from those, only two names actually improved this scan: COST's data delay from last scan resolved and its RSI moved from 46.5 (on a stale bar) to 51.9 on a fresh one, while SBUX climbed from 47.4 to 54.2.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-28)
- T and VZ both gave back their overbought run. T: 72.4 → 55.3. VZ: 70.6 → 59.8. Both still show the strongest 30-day gains in the cut (+15.0%, +13.4%) despite the RSI pullback.
- PPC posted the sector's sharpest move. RSI 58.3 → 40.9 on a -6.75% single day; regime downgraded to "collapse."
- LOW's reversal signal fully unwound. RSI 55.9 → 45.7, trend flipped back from weak-up DC to strong-down DC — the "first real reversal signal" flagged last scan did not hold.
- XLU dropped sharply. RSI 51.6 → 40.4.
- TSN gave back most of its prior jump. RSI 66.3 → 46.6.
- COST's data delay resolved. RSI 46.5 (on a stale 2026-07-24 bar last scan) → 51.9 on a fresh bar this scan.
- SBUX was one of only two names to improve. RSI 47.4 → 54.2.
- No name remains above RSI 64 or below RSI 40 — the tightest range this cut has shown in several scans.
- Universe unchanged. Same 15 tickers as the July 28 cut — no entrants or dropouts.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions — under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought. vs SMA20 is the price gap to the 20-day average. vs VWAP is the premium over the average price paid by current holders — useful for spotting how much of a move is unrealized gain. Trend combines direction/strength with a cross signal: GC (golden cross) is structurally healthier than DC (death cross). A stock whose thesis flag still reads "intact" while its own trend classifier flips back toward a death cross — like LOW this scan — is not a clean signal either way; check both fields together before reading either one as confirmed.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | vs VWAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLU | $44.35 | 40.4 | -2.3% | -4.2% | -0.9% | -4.1% | -7.2% | down GC | +0.9% |
| PPC | $27.36 | 40.9 | -4.4% | -4.6% | -4.2% | -14.2% | -45.9% | strong-down DC | -25.2% |
| WMT | $111.20 | 44.3 | -0.8% | +1.6% | +2.2% | -15.3% | -17.7% | strong-down DC | -3.5% |
| LOW | $207.81 | 45.7 | -1.1% | +0.1% | -5.8% | -10.4% | -29.1% | strong-down DC | -12.9% |
| TSN | $57.96 | 46.6 | -0.7% | +0.9% | -0.8% | -8.2% | -16.6% | strong-down DC | -0.1% |
| HD | $331.96 | 47.0 | -1.7% | -0.3% | -5.4% | +3.3% | -22.2% | weak-up DC | -5.7% |
| MCD | $270.64 | 49.2 | -0.1% | +2.2% | +0.5% | -4.9% | -20.8% | strong-down DC | -8.6% |
| HRL | $25.01 | 51.1 | 0.0% | -1.2% | +1.7% | +18.6% | -14.8% | strong-up GC | +8.6% |
| XLP | $85.05 | 51.6 | +0.4% | +1.1% | +2.1% | +1.8% | -5.7% | strong-up GC | +4.9% |
| COST | $951.89 | 51.9 | +1.5% | +1.8% | +3.1% | -5.8% | -13.2% | down GC | +0.5% |
| SBUX | $105.25 | 54.2 | +0.4% | +1.9% | +1.8% | 0.0% | -3.6% | strong-up GC | +14.9% |
| ECL | $277.63 | 55.1 | +1.4% | +3.3% | -0.3% | +7.3% | -10.2% | up DC | +3.2% |
| T | $23.25 | 55.3 | +4.3% | -3.7% | +15.0% | -9.8% | -22.0% | weak-up DC | -5.6% |
| VZ | $46.81 | 59.8 | +6.2% | +0.9% | +13.4% | -1.0% | -9.4% | strong-up GC | +9.5% |
| TGT | $144.49 | 63.6 | +5.2% | +5.6% | +10.9% | +13.2% | -2.2% | strong-up GC | +37.9% |
Tier Analysis
Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold band (RSI 25-40)
None. XLU (40.4) and PPC (40.9) sit just above the line — the closest this cut has come to the band in several scans.
RSI 40+ (everyone else)
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | $111.20 | <$102.41 (support shelf) | 44.3 | +2.2% | Cooled from last scan's read, death-cross structure persists |
| TSN | $57.96 | <$57.06 (support shelf) | 46.6 | -0.8% | Gave back most of last scan's jump, structure unresolved |
| XLU | $44.35 | ~$44.18 (support shelf, essentially at it) | 40.4 | -0.9% | Dropped the second-most this scan, sitting right on its shelf |
| PPC | $27.36 | No support shelf identified | 40.9 | -4.2% | Sharpest move in the cut this scan, "collapse" regime, no confirmed floor |
| TGT | $144.49 | Extended — shelf far below at $94.19 | 63.6 | +10.9% | Strongest read in the cut; wait for a pullback rather than chase |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | XLP, SBUX | Basing structure, not extended, no broken-structure flags |
| 🔒 HOLD | VZ, ECL, TGT | Uptrend regime, cooled from a stronger prior read rather than breaking down |
| 🔍 WATCH | WMT, MCD, COST, HRL, TSN, XLU, T, HD, LOW | Pullback/downtrend regime despite RSI reads that aren't extreme; T and LOW in particular show a regime/RSI disagreement worth confirming next scan |
| ❌ AVOID / FALLING KNIFE | PPC | "Collapse" regime, sharpest move in the cut, no confirmed floor |
What To Watch Next
- T and VZ both gave back a two-scan overbought run — does the telecom trade find a new base here, or does it keep unwinding?
- LOW's reversal signal from last scan fully failed (trend back to strong-down DC) while its thesis flag still reads "intact" — does the desk's own thesis call catch down to the tape, or does LOW re-attempt the turn?
- PPC posted the sector's sharpest move and is now the only "collapse"-regime name in the cut — does it stabilize, or does the decline keep compounding?
- No name sits below RSI 40 or above 64 this scan, the tightest range in several sessions — does the group stay this contained, or does the next move break it open one way or the other?
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 close — defensive.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.