Defensive Scan

Scan

Defensive Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 28 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusscheduledprior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-28-defensive-scan.md

Data as-of 2026-07-31 close.

The whole cut cooled at once. T and VZ gave back a two-scan overbought run — T's RSI fell from 72.4 to 55.3 and VZ's from 70.6 to 59.8 — while PPC posted the sharpest single move, RSI 58.3 → 40.9 on a -6.75% single day, with its regime downgraded to "collapse." The bigger structural story is LOW: last scan's "first real reversal signal" (trend flipped to weak-up DC) fully unwound — RSI 55.9 → 45.7, trend back to strong-down DC — even though the thesis flag on file still reads "intact." For the first time in several scans, no name sits above RSI 64 or below RSI 40.

Source: defensive.json. Latest bar 2026-07-31 for every name in this cut. Prior scan: 2026-07-28-defensive-scan.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Broad cooling across the board — 13 of 15 names saw RSI fall this scan, T and VZ gave back a two-scan overbought run, and the cut now sits in its tightest range (40-64) in several sessions
Leaders TGT (RSI 63.6, holds the top after cooling only slightly); VZ (59.8, down from overbought but still the second-strongest read); T (55.3, cooled hard off two scans of gains)
Laggards PPC (RSI 40.9, "collapse" regime, -45.9% off its 52-week high); XLU (40.4, dropped from 51.6 last scan); WMT (44.3, still carrying a death-cross structure)
Key insight LOW's reversal signal from last scan — trend flipped to weak-up DC, thesis marked "intact" — fully unwound this scan; the trend classifier now reads strong-down DC again, confirming the regime's "downtrend" read rather than the reversal

What's Going On

Telecom gave back its run. T's RSI fell from 72.4 to 55.3, and VZ's from 70.6 to 59.8 — both cooling off what had been two consecutive scans of overbought strength. Both still carry the two strongest 30-day prints in the cut (change30d per defensive.json: T +15.04%, VZ +13.37%), just off their recent peak reads rather than reversing outright.

PPC posted the sector's sharpest single move. RSI fell from 58.3 to 40.9 on a -6.75% single day (change1d), with the regime classifier now reading "collapse" — the most structurally damaged name in this cut, sitting -45.89% off its 52-week high.

LOW is the session's clearest reversal-of-a-reversal. Last scan flagged its first real reversal signal — RSI up to 55.9, trend flipped from strong-down DC to weak-up DC. This scan gave all of that back: RSI down to 45.7, trend back to strong-down DC, even though the thesis flag on file still reads "intact" — a case where the tape has re-broken but the desk's own thesis call hasn't caught down to it yet.

XLU dropped the second-most in the cut: RSI 51.6 → 40.4, -4.19% over the week (change7d), giving back essentially all of its prior strength. TSN gave back most of its own prior jump, RSI 66.3 → 46.6. Away from those, only two names actually improved this scan: COST's data delay from last scan resolved and its RSI moved from 46.5 (on a stale bar) to 51.9 on a fresh one, while SBUX climbed from 47.4 to 54.2.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-28)

  • T and VZ both gave back their overbought run. T: 72.4 → 55.3. VZ: 70.6 → 59.8. Both still show the strongest 30-day gains in the cut (+15.0%, +13.4%) despite the RSI pullback.
  • PPC posted the sector's sharpest move. RSI 58.3 → 40.9 on a -6.75% single day; regime downgraded to "collapse."
  • LOW's reversal signal fully unwound. RSI 55.9 → 45.7, trend flipped back from weak-up DC to strong-down DC — the "first real reversal signal" flagged last scan did not hold.
  • XLU dropped sharply. RSI 51.6 → 40.4.
  • TSN gave back most of its prior jump. RSI 66.3 → 46.6.
  • COST's data delay resolved. RSI 46.5 (on a stale 2026-07-24 bar last scan) → 51.9 on a fresh bar this scan.
  • SBUX was one of only two names to improve. RSI 47.4 → 54.2.
  • No name remains above RSI 64 or below RSI 40 — the tightest range this cut has shown in several scans.
  • Universe unchanged. Same 15 tickers as the July 28 cut — no entrants or dropouts.

How To Read The Board

RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions — under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought. vs SMA20 is the price gap to the 20-day average. vs VWAP is the premium over the average price paid by current holders — useful for spotting how much of a move is unrealized gain. Trend combines direction/strength with a cross signal: GC (golden cross) is structurally healthier than DC (death cross). A stock whose thesis flag still reads "intact" while its own trend classifier flips back toward a death cross — like LOW this scan — is not a clean signal either way; check both fields together before reading either one as confirmed.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi% Trend vs VWAP
XLU $44.35 40.4 -2.3% -4.2% -0.9% -4.1% -7.2% down GC +0.9%
PPC $27.36 40.9 -4.4% -4.6% -4.2% -14.2% -45.9% strong-down DC -25.2%
WMT $111.20 44.3 -0.8% +1.6% +2.2% -15.3% -17.7% strong-down DC -3.5%
LOW $207.81 45.7 -1.1% +0.1% -5.8% -10.4% -29.1% strong-down DC -12.9%
TSN $57.96 46.6 -0.7% +0.9% -0.8% -8.2% -16.6% strong-down DC -0.1%
HD $331.96 47.0 -1.7% -0.3% -5.4% +3.3% -22.2% weak-up DC -5.7%
MCD $270.64 49.2 -0.1% +2.2% +0.5% -4.9% -20.8% strong-down DC -8.6%
HRL $25.01 51.1 0.0% -1.2% +1.7% +18.6% -14.8% strong-up GC +8.6%
XLP $85.05 51.6 +0.4% +1.1% +2.1% +1.8% -5.7% strong-up GC +4.9%
COST $951.89 51.9 +1.5% +1.8% +3.1% -5.8% -13.2% down GC +0.5%
SBUX $105.25 54.2 +0.4% +1.9% +1.8% 0.0% -3.6% strong-up GC +14.9%
ECL $277.63 55.1 +1.4% +3.3% -0.3% +7.3% -10.2% up DC +3.2%
T $23.25 55.3 +4.3% -3.7% +15.0% -9.8% -22.0% weak-up DC -5.6%
VZ $46.81 59.8 +6.2% +0.9% +13.4% -1.0% -9.4% strong-up GC +9.5%
TGT $144.49 63.6 +5.2% +5.6% +10.9% +13.2% -2.2% strong-up GC +37.9%

Tier Analysis

Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)

None.

Oversold band (RSI 25-40)

None. XLU (40.4) and PPC (40.9) sit just above the line — the closest this cut has come to the band in several scans.

RSI 40+ (everyone else)

  • Cooling band: XLU, PPC, WMT, LOW, TSN, HD. PPC is the standout here — its regime just downgraded to "collapse."
  • Basing band: MCD, HRL, XLP, COST, SBUX. None extended, none broken.
  • Momentum band: ECL, T, VZ, TGT. Nothing above RSI 64 this scan — down from two overbought names (T, VZ) last time.

Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI 30D% Setup
WMT $111.20 <$102.41 (support shelf) 44.3 +2.2% Cooled from last scan's read, death-cross structure persists
TSN $57.96 <$57.06 (support shelf) 46.6 -0.8% Gave back most of last scan's jump, structure unresolved
XLU $44.35 ~$44.18 (support shelf, essentially at it) 40.4 -0.9% Dropped the second-most this scan, sitting right on its shelf
PPC $27.36 No support shelf identified 40.9 -4.2% Sharpest move in the cut this scan, "collapse" regime, no confirmed floor
TGT $144.49 Extended — shelf far below at $94.19 63.6 +10.9% Strongest read in the cut; wait for a pullback rather than chase

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
📈 ACCUMULATE XLP, SBUX Basing structure, not extended, no broken-structure flags
🔒 HOLD VZ, ECL, TGT Uptrend regime, cooled from a stronger prior read rather than breaking down
🔍 WATCH WMT, MCD, COST, HRL, TSN, XLU, T, HD, LOW Pullback/downtrend regime despite RSI reads that aren't extreme; T and LOW in particular show a regime/RSI disagreement worth confirming next scan
❌ AVOID / FALLING KNIFE PPC "Collapse" regime, sharpest move in the cut, no confirmed floor

What To Watch Next

  • T and VZ both gave back a two-scan overbought run — does the telecom trade find a new base here, or does it keep unwinding?
  • LOW's reversal signal from last scan fully failed (trend back to strong-down DC) while its thesis flag still reads "intact" — does the desk's own thesis call catch down to the tape, or does LOW re-attempt the turn?
  • PPC posted the sector's sharpest move and is now the only "collapse"-regime name in the cut — does it stabilize, or does the decline keep compounding?
  • No name sits below RSI 40 or above 64 this scan, the tightest range in several sessions — does the group stay this contained, or does the next move break it open one way or the other?

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 close — defensive.
9 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.