Data as-of 2026-07-10 close.

T's capitulation-tier RSI 28 from last scan is over — it bounced to RSI 40.8 on a +4.0% week, though the trend is still strong-down DC, so this reads as a relief bounce, not a confirmed reversal. TGT kept climbing off its post-crash low (RSI 43.8→57.0, +7.2% price), continuing the recovery flagged last scan. The flip side: LOW rolled the wrong way, dropping from a weak-up recovery to strong-down DC (RSI 54.4→41.1, -5.4% price), and ECL cooled hard out of "extended" territory (RSI 67.3→53.1, -3.3%). COST is now the sector's weakest name (RSI 36.3), a new development. XLU and XLP continue to be the cleanest, steadiest defensive exposure — basically unchanged again this scan.

Source: defensive.json. Latest bar 2026-07-10. Prior scan: 2026-07-07-defensive-scan.

Last scan's two most interesting names were T (genuinely oversold at RSI 28) and TGT/HRL (both mean-reverting hard from "don't chase" calls). This cycle, T eased off its extreme — RSI 40.8, up +4.0% for the week — but the trend is unchanged: still strong-down DC, still -29.1% from its 52-week high. That's a relief bounce inside a broken structure, not a floor. TGT kept its recovery going (RSI 57.0, +7.2% price), the strongest continuation story in the sector.

The surprise this cycle is LOW, which had been the "modest continued bounce, unresolved trend" name last scan and instead rolled the other way — RSI 54.4→41.1, price -5.4%, trend flipping from weak-up to strong-down DC. ECL, last scan's one "extended" name, cooled hard (RSI 67.3→53.1) on a real pullback rather than digestion. COST is now the sector's single weakest print at RSI 36.3, continuing to drift with no bounce catalyst for a third straight scan. XLU and XLP, the two standing accumulate picks, are basically unchanged again — the steadiest exposure in the group remains the ETFs, not the single names.

• T eased off capitulation-tier RSI without a trend flip. RSI 28.4→40.8, price $20.58→$21.13 (+2.7%), still strong-down DC. Consistent with last scan's read: oversold RSI alone isn't a buy signal until the structure turns.
• TGT continued its recovery. RSI 43.8→57.0, price $126.10→$135.14 (+7.2%) — the cleanest continuation in the sector, now two scans removed from its "don't chase, +36.8% vs VWAP" flag from mid-cycle.
• LOW rolled over. RSI 54.4→41.1, price $223.78→$211.63 (-5.4%), trend flipped from weak-up DC to strong-down DC — the one name that got worse instead of better this cycle.
• ECL cooled sharply out of "extended." RSI 67.3→53.1, price $283.72→$274.31 (-3.3%) — a real pullback, not the flat-price digestion pattern seen elsewhere in the sector.
• COST is now the sector's weakest name. RSI 44.2→36.3, price $950.25→$916.25 (-3.6%) — third straight scan drifting lower with no floor.
• VZ barely moved (RSI 32.7→39.6, price flat) — still deepening slowly, no reversal signal.
• WMT improved slightly (RSI 34.0→44.2, price +2.9%) but remains down GC, still searching for a floor.
• MCD gave back some of its prior bounce (RSI 52.5→47.1, price -1.8%) after being flagged "the one real recovery" last scan.
• HRL continued a modest recovery (RSI 51.1→54.9, price +1.9%) after crashing from RSI 80 two scans ago.
• XLU and XLP are essentially unchanged (XLU RSI 53.3→53.4, XLP 52.0→51.6) — still the cleanest, steadiest defensives in the sector.
• SBUX improved (RSI 51.5→60.8, price +3.8%) — the second-best continuation in the sector after TGT.
• PPC remains stuck (RSI 49.5→48.1, price -1.4%), still strong-down DC, now -44.1% from its 52-week high (worse than last scan's -43.3%) — no reversal signal after another 10 sessions.

RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions — under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought. vs SMA20 is the price gap to the 20-day average. vs VWAP is the premium over the average price paid by current holders — useful for spotting how much of a move is unrealized gain. Trend combines direction/strength with a cross signal: GC (golden cross) is structurally healthier than DC (death cross). A stock bouncing off an oversold RSI while still marked strong-down DC — like T this cycle — is a relief bounce inside a broken structure, not a confirmed reversal; wait for the cross to flip before treating it as a real entry.

None.

COST ($916.25, RSI 36.3) — down GC, -3.4% vs VWAP, drifting lower for a third straight scan with no bounce catalyst. VZ ($42.12, RSI 39.6) — down GC, roughly flat on price, still no reversal signal. Both structure-intact-but-drifting; neither is a confirmed buy yet.

• Still working through a pullback (RSI 41-49): T, LOW, WMT, TSN, MCD, PPC. T is the notable one — a relief bounce off real capitulation, but still strong-down DC. LOW is the cycle's one clear reversal-for-the-worse, flipping from recovery to strong-down DC. PPC remains the sector's most structurally broken name (-44.1% from ATH).
• Basing / cleanest exposure (RSI 51-55): XLP, ECL, XLU, HRL, HD. XLU and XLP are unchanged and remain the standing accumulate picks — GC intact, not extended.
• Continuing recoveries (RSI 57-61): TGT, SBUX. Both are the sector's best continuation stories this cycle — TGT off its post-overbought crash, SBUX off its prior cooldown.

• T bounced off real capitulation (RSI 28→41) without the trend flipping — does the next scan confirm a golden cross, or was this just a dead-cat bounce?
• LOW reversed for the worse this cycle after two scans of a modest recovery — is this the start of a real breakdown or a one-week pullback?
• COST is now the sector's weakest name with no catalyst in sight after three scans — is there a fundamental reason, or is this pure drift that eventually mean-reverts?
• ECL's pullback from "extended" was a real price decline, not digestion — worth checking whether that's sector-wide margin pressure or name-specific.