Defensive Scan
Defensive Scan
Data as-of 2026-08-07 close — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar this scan.
HD and LOW posted the week's two biggest moves: HD's RSI climbed from 47.0 to 61.3 (+14.3 points) and LOW's from 45.7 to 59.9 (+14.2 points) — but LOW's regime classifier still reads "downtrend" with a death-cross trend label, the same tape-vs-thesis disagreement flagged last scan, just carried to a higher RSI print. T shows the identical mismatch: RSI cooled into the upper half of the range at 58.7 on +14.16% over 30 days, while its own regime classifier still says "downtrend." The lone name moving the other way is XLU, which dropped further to RSI 36.1 — the cut's only sub-40 print and its lowest read in several scans — even though its regime classifier still reads "basing" rather than confirming any breakdown.
Source: defensive.json. Latest bar 2026-08-07 for every name in this cut. Prior scan: 2026-07-31-defensive-scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Broad recovery with two structural holdouts — HD and LOW both jumped roughly 14 RSI points, but LOW and T still carry a "downtrend" regime tag despite the move; XLU is the lone laggard |
| Leaders | TGT (RSI 67.2, holds the top of the range); HD (61.3, +14.3-point jump); ECL (60.8, cooled then recovered) |
| Laggards | XLU (36.1↓, the cut's only sub-40 print, dropped further from 40.4); PPC (44.4, still "collapse" regime); WMT and TSN (both 46.6, flat) |
| Key insight | T and LOW both posted strong RSI/price reads this scan while their own regime classifiers still read "downtrend" — the tape has moved but the structural read hasn't caught up, the same disagreement flagged for LOW last scan |
What's Going On
HD and LOW dominated the session. HD's RSI rose from 47.0 to 61.3 (+14.3 points) on +7.13% over the week (change7d per defensive.json), and LOW's climbed from 45.7 to 59.9 (+14.2 points) on +7.48% over the week. Both moves are comparable in size, but HD carries a "pullback" regime tag while LOW's regime classifier still reads "downtrend" with a death-cross trend label — the same mismatch flagged for LOW last scan, when its earlier reversal signal fully unwound. This scan's bounce is bigger, but the regime hasn't confirmed it yet.
T shows the identical pattern. RSI cooled into 58.7 on +14.16% over 30 days (change30d) — the strongest 30-day print in the cut alongside VZ's +12.75% — yet T's own regime classifier still reads "downtrend."
XLU moved the opposite direction from almost everything else in the cut. RSI fell from 40.4 to 36.1, its lowest print in several scans and the cut's only sub-40 read, on -1.67% over the week and -3.86% over 30 days. Its regime classifier still reads "basing" rather than downgrading, an unresolved read worth confirming next scan.
Away from those four names, the rest of the cut moved modestly: ECL (55.1 → 60.8), TGT (63.6 → 67.2), and VZ (59.8 → 59.3, essentially flat) all held or extended gently, while WMT, COST, HRL, TSN, MCD, SBUX, and XLP all sat within a few points of last scan's reads.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-31)
- HD and LOW both posted the cut's biggest RSI jumps. HD: 47.0 → 61.3 (+14.3). LOW: 45.7 → 59.9 (+14.2).
- LOW's regime classifier still reads "downtrend" despite the jump — the same tape/thesis disagreement flagged last scan when its earlier reversal signal fully unwound.
- T carries the identical mismatch. RSI 55.3 → 58.7, +14.16% over 30 days, regime still "downtrend."
- XLU dropped further to the cut's only sub-40 print. RSI 40.4 → 36.1 — its lowest read in several scans; regime classifier still reads "basing," not downgraded.
- TGT holds the top of the range. RSI 63.6 → 67.2, still the strongest read in the cut.
- ECL cooled into a stronger read. RSI 55.1 → 60.8.
- PPC posted only a modest bounce. RSI 40.9 → 44.4, still "collapse" regime — no confirmed floor despite the small recovery.
- No stale bars this scan. Every name carries a 2026-08-07 close.
- Universe unchanged. Same 15 tickers as the July 31 cut — no entrants or dropouts.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions — under 30 signals oversold, over 70 signals overbought. vs SMA20 is the price gap to the 20-day average. vs VWAP is the premium over the average price paid by current holders — useful for spotting how much of a move is unrealized gain. Trend combines direction/strength with a cross signal: GC (golden cross) is structurally healthier than DC (death cross). A stock whose RSI and 30-day return both improve while its regime classifier still reads "downtrend" — like T and LOW this scan — is not a clean signal either way; the tape has moved, but the structural read hasn't confirmed it. Check both fields together before reading either one as decided.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | vs VWAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLU | $43.61 | 36.1 ↓ | -3.1% | -1.7% | -3.9% | -1.9% | -8.7% | down GC | -0.8% |
| PPC | $27.45 | 44.4 | -3.4% | +0.3% | +0.2% | -5.7% | -47.4% | strong-down DC | -24.3% |
| WMT | $111.85 | 46.6 | -0.1% | +0.6% | -1.1% | -14.3% | -16.9% | strong-down DC | -3.0% |
| TSN | $58.04 | 46.6 | -0.7% | +0.1% | -0.5% | -14.4% | -16.3% | strong-down DC | -0.2% |
| COST | $947.82 | 50.4 | +0.7% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.9% | -14.1% | strong-down DC | +0.1% |
| HRL | $25.02 | 50.6 | -0.9% | 0.0% | +3.2% | +23.9% | -14.0% | strong-up GC | +8.6% |
| XLP | $85.12 | 51.7 | +0.2% | +0.1% | +0.9% | +1.8% | -5.3% | strong-up GC | +4.9% |
| MCD | $274.48 | 53.6 | +2.0% | +1.4% | -1.4% | +0.2% | -19.8% | weak-up DC | -7.1% |
| SBUX | $105.58 | 54.2 | +0.6% | +0.3% | +1.7% | +1.2% | -3.0% | strong-up GC | +14.9% |
| T | $23.79 | 58.7 | +3.6% | +2.3% | +14.2% | -4.2% | -22.6% | weak-up DC | -3.3% |
| VZ | $47.06 | 59.3 | +3.7% | +0.5% | +12.8% | +1.4% | -10.1% | strong-up GC | +9.8% |
| LOW | $223.35 | 59.9 | +5.9% | +7.5% | +5.6% | -2.0% | -25.0% | weak-up DC | -6.3% |
| ECL | $285.17 | 60.8 | +3.6% | +2.7% | +4.0% | +12.5% | -7.7% | strong-up GC | +5.9% |
| HD | $355.62 | 61.3 | +4.8% | +7.1% | +5.8% | +12.9% | -17.3% | up DC | +1.1% |
| TGT | $149.70 | 67.2 | +5.6% | +3.6% | +13.1% | +20.7% | -1.6% | strong-up GC | +42.1% |
Tier Analysis
Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold band (RSI 25-40)
None. XLU (36.1) sits just above the line — the closest this cut has come to the band in several scans, and its regime still reads "basing" rather than confirming a breakdown.
RSI 40+ (everyone else)
- Collapse-regime tier: PPC — the only "collapse"-regime name in the cut, despite a modest RSI bounce.
- Downtrend-regime tier: WMT, TSN, T, LOW — RSI and price both improved for T and LOW this scan, but the regime classifier hasn't caught up for any of the four.
- Pullback-regime tier: COST, MCD, HD — cooled or recovered without breaking into a confirmed uptrend.
- Basing-regime tier: VZ, SBUX, XLP, XLU — the cleanest reads in the cut apart from XLU's lower RSI.
- Uptrend-regime tier: HRL, ECL, TGT — none extended, none broken.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | $111.85 | <$102.41 (support shelf) | 46.6 | -1.1% | Downtrend regime persists despite a flat RSI read |
| XLU | $43.61 | ~$43.26 (support shelf, essentially at it) | 36.1 | -3.9% | Cut's only sub-40 print, sitting right on its shelf |
| LOW | $223.35 | <$220.13 (support shelf) | 59.9 | +5.6% | RSI jumped 14 points but regime still reads "downtrend" — confirm before entry |
| PPC | $27.45 | No support shelf identified | 44.4 | +0.2% | Modest bounce only; "collapse" regime persists, no confirmed floor |
| TGT | $149.70 | Extended — shelf far below at $88.94 | 67.2 | +13.1% | Strongest read in the cut; wait for a pullback rather than chase |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | XLP, SBUX | Basing structure, not extended, no broken-structure flags |
| 🔒 HOLD | VZ, HRL, ECL, TGT | Uptrend/basing regime, cooled or steady, not extended |
| 🔍 WATCH | WMT, MCD, COST, TSN, HD, T, LOW, XLU | Pullback/downtrend regime despite RSI reads that improved this scan; T and LOW in particular show a regime/RSI disagreement worth confirming next scan |
| ❌ AVOID / FALLING KNIFE | PPC | "Collapse" regime persists despite the modest RSI bounce |
What To Watch Next
- HD and LOW both posted ~14-point RSI jumps this scan — does either name's regime classifier upgrade next scan, or does the mismatch persist?
- T shows the same downtrend-regime/RSI disagreement as LOW — does the desk's structural read catch up to the tape, or does the tape roll back over?
- XLU dropped to the cut's only sub-40 print while its regime still reads "basing" — does that gap close with a downgrade, or does XLU bounce back into the pack?
- PPC's bounce was modest (40.9 → 44.4) and the only "collapse"-regime name in the cut — does it build on this, or does the decline resume?
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-07 close — defensive.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.