Defensive Scan

Scan

Defensive Scan

Scan symbols 15
TVZWMTEMCDCOSTHRLTSNPPCECLHDELOWESBUXTGTEXLPXLU
Watchlists 1
@defensive
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 31 rows · screens, not recommendations

Defensive sector under pressure: T in downtrend -16% 3M, PPC collapse -22% 3M, WMT -9.2% 30D — only TGT and HRL showing RSI strength; sector is NOT a risk-off haven today, it is trailing the market.

Source: defensive.json

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Defensive sector mixed-to-weak — most names lagging broad market; XLP RSI 59 near ATH confirms baseline staples bid but individual names diverging sharply; no compelling oversold entries; the "defensive" label is misleading this cycle
Leaders TGT ($133.40, RSI 63, near ATH -3.2%), HRL ($24.65, RSI 74, +21% 30D), ECL ($273.87, RSI 64), SBUX ($101.68, RSI 54, near ATH -6.6%)
Laggards T ($23.16, RSI 38, -16% 3M, downtrend), TSN ($57.24, RSI 36, -13.4% 30D), PPC ($29.09, RSI 46, -22.1% 3M, collapse)
Key insight HRL at RSI 74 after +21% 30D looks overbought but -22.6% from ATH; TSN RSI 36 with -13.4% 30D looks oversold but broken trend — poultry/protein space in disarray (screwworm/bird flu overhang?)

Price Table

Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi% Signal
TSN $57.24 36.4 ↓ -4.9% +0.63% -13.43% -7.00% -17.62% 🔍 Watch
T $23.16 38.4 ↓ -3.5% +3.88% -5.20% -15.97% -22.26% ❌ Don't Buy
PPC $29.09 46.5 +0.6% -3.17% +2.57% -22.07% -42.46% ❌ Don't Buy
VZ $46.73 47.6 -1.0% +4.76% -0.06% -6.11% -9.58% 🔍 Watch
WMT $121.03 47.4 +0.8% +1.55% -9.23% -2.86% -10.45% 🔍 Watch
COST $986.68 48.1 -0.6% +0.90% -8.34% -0.81% -10.02% 🔒 Hold
LOW $224.02 56.0 +4.2% +2.14% +2.75% -6.09% -23.56% 🔍 Watch
SBUX $101.68 54.0 +1.7% +3.62% -4.62% +4.82% -6.61% 🔒 Hold
MCD $287.93 59.0 +3.0% +1.91% +2.62% -11.16% -15.75% 🔍 Watch
XLP $85.59 59.0 +1.7% +2.00% -0.36% +1.61% -5.05% 🔒 Hold
XLU $45.06 54.6 +1.5% +2.50% +2.55% -3.72% -5.73% 🔒 Hold
ECL $273.87 63.9 +6.6% +2.47% +9.90% +0.47% -11.45% 🔒 Hold
TGT $133.40 62.6 +5.0% +5.04% +8.10% +15.33% -3.24% 🔒 Hold
HD $337.09 67.5 +6.9% +3.01% +13.28% -0.53% -21.01% ⚠️ Approaching Overbought
HRL $24.65 74.1 ↑ +7.4% +3.19% +20.95% +9.07% -22.63% ⚠️ Overbought

Tier Analysis

Oversold / Breaking Down (RSI < 40)

  • T ($23.16, RSI 38) — AT&T: strong-down trend, deathcross. -16% 3M, -22% from ATH. Telecom business under ongoing secular pressure. Not a buy.
  • TSN ($57.24, RSI 36) — Tyson Foods: protein/poultry under pressure (-13.4% 30D). Trend is "down" with golden cross still present, but momentum is negative. Watch for reversal signal — may be approaching a tradeable low if bird flu/screwworm overhang clears.

Neutral / Mixed (RSI 40–60)

  • WMT ($121.03, RSI 47) — Walmart: golden cross intact but -9.2% 30D. Consumer staples giant temporarily weak. Thesis intact long-term; watch for re-entry near SMA50.
  • COST ($986.68, RSI 48) — Costco: -8.3% 30D but golden cross, strong-up trend long-term. RSI 48 is near-neutral. Hold if owned; not an urgent add.
  • VZ ($46.73, RSI 47) — Verizon: -6.1% 3M, weak-down. Dividend yield play, limited upside. Pass.
  • SBUX ($101.68, RSI 54) — Starbucks: +4.8% 3M, near ATH (-6.6%), golden cross, strong-up. Brian Niccol turnaround in progress. Hold.
  • MCD ($287.93, RSI 59) — McDonald's: -11.2% 3M, -15.8% from ATH, deathcross. Basing but no trend reversal yet.
  • XLP ($85.59, RSI 59) — Consumer Staples ETF: near ATH (-5%), strong-up, golden cross. Sector wrapper healthy.
  • XLU ($45.06, RSI 55) — Utilities ETF: -5.7% from ATH. Holding up. Power demand thesis supporting utility floor.

Momentum / Approaching Overbought (RSI 60–75)

  • TGT ($133.40, RSI 63) — Target: near ATH (-3.2%), +15.3% 3M, strong-up with golden cross. Consumer discretionary/staples hybrid showing strength; hold.
  • ECL ($273.87, RSI 64) — Ecolab: water/hygiene services, +9.9% 30D, -11.5% from ATH. Strong mid-cycle play.
  • HD ($337.09, RSI 67) — Home Depot: +13.3% 30D but -21% from ATH and deathcross. Near overbought on short-term bounce in a broken longer-term trend. Caution.
  • HRL ($24.65, RSI 74) — Hormel: +21% 30D at RSI 74. Overbought after meat price bounce. -22.6% from ATH = not a structural winner; this is a dead-cat-bounce type read.

Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI 30D% Setup
WMT $121.03 <$120 47.4 -9.23% Walmart golden cross + scale moat; -10.5% from ATH; accumulate near SMA50
SBUX $101.68 <$100 54.0 -4.62% Turnaround thesis (Niccol); near ATH; golden cross; any dip to $100 is compelling
TGT $133.40 <$130 62.6 +8.10% Near ATH, golden cross, +15% 3M; accumulate on any 5% dip
TSN $57.24 Watch RSI 36.4 -13.43% Potential reversal near RSI 36 IF protein/poultry overhang clears; not a buy yet

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD SBUX, COST, XLP, XLU, ECL, TGT Trends intact; thesis working; defensive floor holding
🔍 WATCH WMT, VZ, MCD, LOW, TSN Neutral to mild pullbacks; wait for reversal signal or deeper dip
⚠️ AVOID / OVERBOUGHT HRL, HD HRL RSI 74 on dead-cat bounce; HD RSI 67 + deathcross = poor risk/reward
❌ DON'T BUY T, PPC T broken trend -16% 3M; PPC collapse regime -22% 3M, -42.5% from ATH

What Changed

  • HRL spiked +21% 30D — Hormel was a laggard; now RSI 74. Protein/meat price bounce. But -22.6% from ATH; not a structural turn; reduce or avoid.
  • TGT near ATH — Target +15.3% 3M, -3.2% from ATH, golden cross. Consumer discretionary is outperforming defensive staples in this tape.
  • WMT -9.2% 30D — Walmart pulling back; golden cross intact. Trade/tariff sensitivity + consumer spending concerns. Entry window opening.
  • TSN RSI 36 after -13.4% 30D — Tyson approaching oversold; bird flu + screwworm overhang. Watch for catalyst-clear signal before buying.
  • PPC collapse (-22.1% 3M, -42.5% from ATH) — Pilgrim's Pride structural decline; deathcross.
  • T broken (-16% 3M) — AT&T telecom secular decline continues; no catalyst for reversal visible.
  • SBUX near ATH — Niccol turnaround gaining traction. Cultural-thesis watch name.

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
XLP near ATH while individual names struggle Sector ETF smooth; dispersion = rotate to ETF if conviction in sector but not single names
TSN + TSN + PPC all weak Protein/poultry sector in disarray — possible disease overhang (screwworm/bird flu) unresolved
TGT at RSI 63 near ATH vs WMT RSI 47 at -9.2% Target executing better than Walmart in this consumer environment

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Treating all "defensive" names as equivalents T telecom, PPC poultry, WMT retail, HRL processed food have almost no shared thesis

Open Questions

  • Is TSN/PPC/HRL weakness purely protein-cycle or is screwworm/bird flu thesis at work?
  • Is WMT's -9.2% 30D a buying opportunity before holiday setup, or is the consumer softening?
  • SBUX near ATH while MCD -15.8% from ATH — is this a Niccol execution gap or a product mix story?
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Jun 25 ScanDefensive Scan Jun 26 ScanDefensive Scan May 29 ScanDefensive Scan Jun 20 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 7 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 11 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 17 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 25 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 28 ScanDefensive Scan Jul 31 ScanDefensive Scan

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